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| Bennelong byelection: Turnbull under pressure as polls close – politics live | Bennelong byelection: Turnbull under pressure as polls close – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Anyone wanting a bit more on what Christopher Pyne had to say about implications for Malcolm Turnbull, if the Liberals lose this byelection: | |
| .@cpyne says the Liberal Party is ‘absolutely committed’ to @TurnbullMalcolm and the result of the Bennelong by-election will have no implications on his leadership. MORE: https://t.co/OBLbGPTYXn pic.twitter.com/eBMGeRh2eh | |
| Greetings from the Ryde-Eastwood Leagues Club in Sydney’s northern suburbs, where the only thing hotter than the bain marie is John Alexander and the only thing brighter than the lights from the pokies room is the zeal for democratic expression. | |
| The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has set up this byelection as a vote of colossal significance. The people of Bennelong aren’t just picking a local MP, they’re deciding the fate of “thousands of jobs and the future of millions of Australians”. | |
| And well he should. We all know how crucial this election is and why. Not least because of the Liberal party doesn’t hang on here one of those thousands of lost jobs could be his. | |
| Recognising this, the government’s shipped in the big guns from Canberra for polling day. | |
| Besides Turnbull himself, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, defence minister Marise Payne, and the leader of the house, Chris Pyne, have all been spotted handing out for Alexander in Bennelong on Saturday. | |
| I’ll let you know what they all get up to tonight once they show. | |
| The polling says Alexander is predicted to hang on tonight, but if he doesn’t, it’s hard to think of a more suitable venue to watch it all unfold. | |
| When oblivion comes I want the VB on tap and the cricket on loud. | |
| There are no challenges for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership,” Christopher Pyne says. | |
| ... The Liberal party is absolutely committed to Malcolm Turnbull from here through to the next election.” | |
| But I can’t imagine the party will be overly happy if the Liberals lose a seat with a 9% margin. | |
| “A win is a win is a win, in my book,” Christopher Pyne says. | |
| He says a loss will not be a comment on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Let’s remember that, if there is a win, and the government line is that this is a vote of confidence in the prime minister. | |
| For those playing along at home, you can follow the tally room results as they roll in, here. | |
| If sheer number of posters, how-to-votes and volunteers have any impact, then Kristina Keneally and Labor have carpet-bombed the seat of Bennelong. | If sheer number of posters, how-to-votes and volunteers have any impact, then Kristina Keneally and Labor have carpet-bombed the seat of Bennelong. |
| At polling places throughout the seat Keneally smiled out from dozens of posters, outnumbering the Liberal candidate, John Alexander, sometimes 10 to 1. | At polling places throughout the seat Keneally smiled out from dozens of posters, outnumbering the Liberal candidate, John Alexander, sometimes 10 to 1. |
| So overwhelming was the Keneally paraphernalia that some polling places looked more like ALP headquarters. | |
| According to the NSW ALP, they have had 4,000 volunteers working the seat over the past 32 days. They say they have made 60,000 personal phone calls and doorknocked 50,000 homes. That’s pretty much every voter. Volunteers came from all over the state to help today. | |
| It was like pollie bingo at most polling booths. Both sides have wheeled out the big guns. with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten out on the hustings along with senior ministers and shadows. | |
| Polling indicates that Alexander will be returned but with a reduced margin. | Polling indicates that Alexander will be returned but with a reduced margin. |
| Over on the ABC, Trent Zimmerman is also giving his two cents’ worth. | |
| Asked what a loss would mean for Malcolm Turnbull, he says: | Asked what a loss would mean for Malcolm Turnbull, he says: |
| Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it during the course of the evening.” | Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it during the course of the evening.” |
| I’m not sure he meant to say “when” there. | |
| Christopher Pyne is on Sky and he says he hasn’t picked up on a mood for change – at least at the booth he was at. | |
| “There certainly wasn’t a mood for kicking out John Alexander at North Ryde today”. | “There certainly wasn’t a mood for kicking out John Alexander at North Ryde today”. |
| But he adds “but that could change”. | |
| Let’s also remember that given how close this byelection is to Christmas, postal votes are going to play a role. | |
| Labor senator Matt Thistlethwaite also says he thinks John Alexander will win: | Labor senator Matt Thistlethwaite also says he thinks John Alexander will win: |
| “I think John Alexander will be returned, there wasn’t that smashing feeling that there was a massive swing on,” he says. | “I think John Alexander will be returned, there wasn’t that smashing feeling that there was a massive swing on,” he says. |
| Labor has been playing down its chances from day one. It would need at least a 10% swing to take the seat. | |
| Let the count begin. | Let the count begin. |
| Get those predictions rolling in the comments. | Get those predictions rolling in the comments. |
| Polls are almost closed – but here is a taste of what we were talking about, in regards to where this campaign went. | Polls are almost closed – but here is a taste of what we were talking about, in regards to where this campaign went. |
| Bill Shorten gave his verdict on the campaign today: | Bill Shorten gave his verdict on the campaign today: |
| I think that if Mr Turnbull had his time again he wouldn’t have engaged in his trademark overreach and his promotion of China-phobia. There is no doubt that he wanted to pursue Senator Dastyari, and Sam Dastyari did make some very serious lapses of judgement. But we all know about this Prime Minister. | I think that if Mr Turnbull had his time again he wouldn’t have engaged in his trademark overreach and his promotion of China-phobia. There is no doubt that he wanted to pursue Senator Dastyari, and Sam Dastyari did make some very serious lapses of judgement. But we all know about this Prime Minister. |
| His classic trademark is to show poor judgement and overreach on an issue. The fact that from the Government of China to Chinese Australians, all universally expressing concern that the chief spokesman for Australia is engaging in dividing the community.” | His classic trademark is to show poor judgement and overreach on an issue. The fact that from the Government of China to Chinese Australians, all universally expressing concern that the chief spokesman for Australia is engaging in dividing the community.” |
| And Malcolm Turnbull responded: | And Malcolm Turnbull responded: |
| I mean what does it say about the desperation of the Labor Party, that they would try to suggest that I am ‘China-phobic’ or have got something against Chinese people? I mean, there are one million Australians of Chinese ancestry, one of them is my granddaughter, Lucy and my granddaughter. | I mean what does it say about the desperation of the Labor Party, that they would try to suggest that I am ‘China-phobic’ or have got something against Chinese people? I mean, there are one million Australians of Chinese ancestry, one of them is my granddaughter, Lucy and my granddaughter. |
| I mean, Labor is desperate and it is really, it really should give us all cause for pause to think that in their desperation they want to turn Australians against each other. | I mean, Labor is desperate and it is really, it really should give us all cause for pause to think that in their desperation they want to turn Australians against each other. |
| But you know something? John and I and the people of Bennelong will not be dissuaded by that, will not be persuaded by that. | But you know something? John and I and the people of Bennelong will not be dissuaded by that, will not be persuaded by that. |
| This is desperation tactics from Labor. It just shows that they don’t have an answer to the challenges that we’ve set out for them.” | This is desperation tactics from Labor. It just shows that they don’t have an answer to the challenges that we’ve set out for them.” |
| The final day on the hustings was certainly a warm one in Sydney – and of course Mike Bowers was out and about in it. | The final day on the hustings was certainly a warm one in Sydney – and of course Mike Bowers was out and about in it. |
| You have to feel sorry for the people of Bennelong. Given how much is riding on this by-election, voters have been inundated with campaign materials, robo calls and volunteer door knocks. | You have to feel sorry for the people of Bennelong. Given how much is riding on this by-election, voters have been inundated with campaign materials, robo calls and volunteer door knocks. |
| Both sides have been accused of dirty tactics and going too far. And it is not just those handing out campaign materials. Both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull have been accused of over-egging with their rhetoric. Turnbull seized on the Sam Dastyari story , questioning his loyalty to Australia, while Shorten accused Turnbull of being “china-phobic”. | Both sides have been accused of dirty tactics and going too far. And it is not just those handing out campaign materials. Both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull have been accused of over-egging with their rhetoric. Turnbull seized on the Sam Dastyari story , questioning his loyalty to Australia, while Shorten accused Turnbull of being “china-phobic”. |
| At least it is almost over. | At least it is almost over. |
| Ben Raue has written up a nice piece at what is at stake here. You’ll find that here with an explanation of why polling single seats is so difficult: | Ben Raue has written up a nice piece at what is at stake here. You’ll find that here with an explanation of why polling single seats is so difficult: |
| Alexander won a third term in 2016 with a 9.7% margin. National polls suggest a national swing to Labor of up to 5%, but byelections often see larger swings. A 10% swing is definitely achievable. | Alexander won a third term in 2016 with a 9.7% margin. National polls suggest a national swing to Labor of up to 5%, but byelections often see larger swings. A 10% swing is definitely achievable. |
| There have been four polls in Bennelong – two gave Alexander a lead of 3%, while the other two had the race tied. Seat polling is not a perfect science, but these polls suggest a sizeable swing to Labor. Trying to make a more precise prediction risks leaving egg on your face. | There have been four polls in Bennelong – two gave Alexander a lead of 3%, while the other two had the race tied. Seat polling is not a perfect science, but these polls suggest a sizeable swing to Labor. Trying to make a more precise prediction risks leaving egg on your face. |
| There are 106,000 registered voters in Bennelong. The big question though is how many are actually home this weekend and what sort of voter turnout can be expected the weekend before Christmas. | There are 106,000 registered voters in Bennelong. The big question though is how many are actually home this weekend and what sort of voter turnout can be expected the weekend before Christmas. |
| One of the big problems faced by Labor is that most uni students who live around Macquarie University in the electorate finished up some weeks ago, and many would have headed overseas or to their families, before the byelection was called. | One of the big problems faced by Labor is that most uni students who live around Macquarie University in the electorate finished up some weeks ago, and many would have headed overseas or to their families, before the byelection was called. |
| As for families heading off for holidays, the Australian Electoral Commission says 13,000 voters have done a pre-poll vote, and 16,000 have applied for a postal vote. That doesn’t mean all of them will translate into actual votes – but its a significant number and if it’s close, we might be waiting some time while postal votes are received and counted. | |
| Postal votes have a higher proportion of 55-plus voters because they know what a post box is. So the Liberals will feel more confident than Labor if its comes down to the wire. | |
| That leaves about 75,000 voters to vote in person. Generally turnout is lower in byelections – around 80%. But this ain’t any ordinary byelection. | |
| Polls close at 6pm | Polls close at 6pm |
| Whoever wins the seat is the simplistic winner. | Whoever wins the seat is the simplistic winner. |
| But what will be a political win for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull? And what will be a “win” for Labor. | But what will be a political win for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull? And what will be a “win” for Labor. |
| Over the last 24 hours each side has been seeking to define success in Bennelong. | |
| For Turnbull, obviously a loss would be catastrophic – but not the most likely result. | |
| The polls suggest John Alexander who holds the seat with a 9.8% margin, will be returned with a reduced majority. | The polls suggest John Alexander who holds the seat with a 9.8% margin, will be returned with a reduced majority. |
| Labor has held the seat just once since it was proclaimed as a seat in 1949, when the high profile TV personality Maxine McKew, beat John Howard in the 2007 Rudd landslide. | Labor has held the seat just once since it was proclaimed as a seat in 1949, when the high profile TV personality Maxine McKew, beat John Howard in the 2007 Rudd landslide. |
| But what if John Alexander just scrapes back? How to interpret the swing? | But what if John Alexander just scrapes back? How to interpret the swing? |
| Just taking a look at Bennelong, it has been a Liberal seat – except when the Ruddslide saw the Chinese community shift to Labor in 2007, when Maxine McKew won it for Labor for the first time in 33 years. It went back to the Liberals at the 2010 election, though, when John Alexander first won it. | |
| But some fast stats, courtesy of the 2016 census, which point to why the Chinese vote has been considered so important. | |
| Population – 168,948 | |
| Chinese ancestry – 44,341 | Chinese ancestry – 44,341 |
| Born in China – 22,527 | Born in China – 22,527 |
| Both parents born overseas – 61.2% | |
| Welcome to a special edition of politics live, as we follow the results from the Bennelong byelection. | |
| If the polls are to be believed, it’s meant to be a tight contest. If the commentary is to be believed, it is not just the fate of Bennelong’s representation at risk – a bad result for the Coalition could mean some rough sailing for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. | If the polls are to be believed, it’s meant to be a tight contest. If the commentary is to be believed, it is not just the fate of Bennelong’s representation at risk – a bad result for the Coalition could mean some rough sailing for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. |
| A loss will also mean the end of the Turnbull government’s oneseat majority. Independent Cathy McGowan has already ruled out become Speaker to help the government bolster its numbers on the floor, so there is a lot riding on this result. | |
| Polls close in just under an hour, so we will bring you all the results as they start rolling in. | Polls close in just under an hour, so we will bring you all the results as they start rolling in. |
| But the campaigning has not stopped. Kristina Keneally is still at the polls, with Labor throwing everything it has at the seat. Labor built its campaign around “send Malcolm Turnbull a message”. Turnbull has taken up the challenge over the last four weeks. The prime minister has been out in force in support of John Alexander, along with senior members of his cabinet. | |
| The latest poll suggests the swing is on – but will it be enough to cause an upset? | The latest poll suggests the swing is on – but will it be enough to cause an upset? |
| Let’s find out. | Let’s find out. |