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Bennelong byelection: John Alexander on track to beat Kristina Keneally – politics live Bennelong byelection: Kristina Keneally concedes to John Alexander – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Growing up in South-West Sydney I was only ever peripherally aware that the northern suburbs existed. It always had this weird nebulous quality to it, somewhere you went past on the train to Newcastle. Watching the coverage of the byelection unfold, I get the sense that I’m not alone. “What an extraordinary result,” she says.
A lot has been made about the high population of voters with a Chinese background and they might or might not *do*. Whether there’d be a backlash against the government because of its foreign influence laws, etcetera. “We knew this was an intense campaign, especially just before the holidays.”
For what it’s worth though, one of the three people to hold this seat, Maxine McKew, told me earlier in the campaign that she thought the focus on ethnicity was over-blown. She thanks all those who worked on the campaign and all those who voted Labor.
“I want to congratulate John Alexander,” she says.
“...Now friends, I am not here tonight to claim victory for the Labor party. But I am here tonight to claim success for the Labor movement.”
Kristina Keneally looks like she is arriving at the Labor Bennelong party with Bill Shorten. She will be conceding.
Having said that, Matt Thistlethwaite (whose name, as someone with a lisp, is my worst nightmare) says he would also like to see Kristina Keneally have another go at Bennelong in a general election.
But he also says she would be “an asset” in the Senate.
Matt Thistlethwaite is now saying that if this wasn’t a byelection, Labor probably wouldn’t have run a candidate:
“It is a deeply conservative seat,” he says.
Christopher Pyne just said that the Liberals’ internal polling showed that every time Malcolm Turnbull campaigned in the seat, the Coalition’s polling improved.
Malcolm Turnbull is en-route to the Liberal Bennelong party.
On the primary vote, with just under 50% of the vote counted, Kristina Keneally has picked up just over 7.8 per cent of the vote. John Alexander’s primary vote has dropped by just over 6.8%. But the preferences from the Australian Conservatives (which looks to have taken a large chunk of the vote from the Christian Democrat Party) are flowing pretty much straight back to Alexander, which has given him a comfortable win.
Someone just got themselves back on the Christmas card list.
The mood at Labor’s Bennelong HQ doesn’t appear quite as jubilant
Having a look at the projected result from the AEC and the prediction is hovering around 55% to 45%.
#BennelongVotes preferences to Labor 47.6% compared to last election 55.3% on common booths - results at https://t.co/AsDnvgH3ok
Growing up in south-west Sydney I was only ever peripherally aware that the northern suburbs existed. It always had this weird nebulous quality to it, somewhere you went past on the train to Newcastle. Watching the coverage of the byelection unfold, I get the sense that I’m not alone.
A lot has been made about the high population of voters with a Chinese background and what they might or might not *do*. Whether there would be a backlash against the government because of its foreign influence laws, etc.
For what it’s worth though, one of the three people to hold this seat, Maxine McKew, told me earlier in the campaign that she thought the focus on ethnicity was overblown.
“Everyone concentrates on ethnicity but income is a more accurate guide to voting patterns,” she told me.“Everyone concentrates on ethnicity but income is a more accurate guide to voting patterns,” she told me.
She considers the seat “socially conservative” - pointing out the no vote in the same-sex marriage postal vote - but still thinks it’s “open to persuasion”. She considers the seat “socially conservative” – pointing out the no vote in the same-sex marriage postal vote – but still thinks it’s “open to persuasion”.
And for those wanting a visual of that:And for those wanting a visual of that:
Alexander’s supporters react when Labor HQ pops up on @SkyNewsAust #BennelongVotes #auspol @9NewsAUS pic.twitter.com/he2lmZbO56Alexander’s supporters react when Labor HQ pops up on @SkyNewsAust #BennelongVotes #auspol @9NewsAUS pic.twitter.com/he2lmZbO56
Looks like there is movement at Labor’s Bennelong headquarters: I would expect an announcement from Kristina Keneally soon.Looks like there is movement at Labor’s Bennelong headquarters: I would expect an announcement from Kristina Keneally soon.
Big “JA” cheer goes up when a dour looking Labor Party function comes up on Sky.Big “JA” cheer goes up when a dour looking Labor Party function comes up on Sky.
With just under 30 per cent of the vote called, the swing (on 2PP) is sitting at just under 4.6 per cent. With just under 30% of the vote counted, the swing (on 2PP) is sitting at just under 4.6%.
This will bounce around a little before all the votes are counted. But it’s about right (right now, a little under) the usual result for a byelectionThis will bounce around a little before all the votes are counted. But it’s about right (right now, a little under) the usual result for a byelection
Here is what the Liberal Party party looks like:Here is what the Liberal Party party looks like:
A sea of blue shirts, with a smattering of names among the early crowd: Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is working the (literally) taped off media area, and I’ve seen Fiona Scott wandering around too.A sea of blue shirts, with a smattering of names among the early crowd: Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is working the (literally) taped off media area, and I’ve seen Fiona Scott wandering around too.
We walked in right as Steve Smith brought up his double ton in the Ashes and the big cheer from the sports bar downstairs had everyone rushing to the tvs (we’re on Sky, not the ABC) to see if a booth had come in.We walked in right as Steve Smith brought up his double ton in the Ashes and the big cheer from the sports bar downstairs had everyone rushing to the tvs (we’re on Sky, not the ABC) to see if a booth had come in.
(The network camera crews are grumbling about it being unAustralian not to have the cricket on).(The network camera crews are grumbling about it being unAustralian not to have the cricket on).
The vibe from the enclosure though is that it’s definitely a cheerful crowd. Lots of selfies and (a few) fist bumps! Despite the expected swing, at the moment the brains trust are telling the media that with a third of the vote counted they’re starting to relax: they say it’ll definitely stay on the benign side of 6%. Things could change quite dramatically, of course, but the sense at the moment is vaguely positive.The vibe from the enclosure though is that it’s definitely a cheerful crowd. Lots of selfies and (a few) fist bumps! Despite the expected swing, at the moment the brains trust are telling the media that with a third of the vote counted they’re starting to relax: they say it’ll definitely stay on the benign side of 6%. Things could change quite dramatically, of course, but the sense at the moment is vaguely positive.
There’s a heavy rider on that statement though: we haven’t yet reached 8pm and already there is a severe shortage of party pies. If things don’t go the way they should, I expect some riled up volunteers.There’s a heavy rider on that statement though: we haven’t yet reached 8pm and already there is a severe shortage of party pies. If things don’t go the way they should, I expect some riled up volunteers.
And we have moved on to Batman. Trent Zimmerman is predicting a Labor loss (if David Feeney is found to have been ineligible by the high court, after the Labor MP couldn’t find his documents that he renounced his British citizenship in 2007)And we have moved on to Batman. Trent Zimmerman is predicting a Labor loss (if David Feeney is found to have been ineligible by the high court, after the Labor MP couldn’t find his documents that he renounced his British citizenship in 2007)
I think is going to mean that Bill Shorten’s going to be very nervous if there is a byelection in Batman in Melbourne early in the new year.I think is going to mean that Bill Shorten’s going to be very nervous if there is a byelection in Batman in Melbourne early in the new year.
The contest will be different against the Greens but it wouldn’t give him any confidence he is going to be able to hold that seatThe contest will be different against the Greens but it wouldn’t give him any confidence he is going to be able to hold that seat
However we will have to hear both sides spin a 5 per cent swing as a win.However we will have to hear both sides spin a 5 per cent swing as a win.
The best news from tonight is we will not have to hear every single senior government minister repeat the phrase that John Alexander is “Australia’s champion...and Bennelong’s champion” for quite some time.The best news from tonight is we will not have to hear every single senior government minister repeat the phrase that John Alexander is “Australia’s champion...and Bennelong’s champion” for quite some time.
So – what are the thoughts on Kristina Keneally taking over from Sam Dastyari in the Senate?
A few days ago, she refused to rule “anything in or out”.
Tony Burke has just repeated that message Anne Davies reported just a few moments ago:
The only accident of history the government’s got tonight is this byelection has happened in a 9%seat.
But this is the sort of swing - Peter Dutton would be obliterated if a swing like this was on.
Christian Porter would be gone. [That’s] a whole series of very prominent government members who aren’t even members of parliament if a swing that’s anything like this happens at a general election.
Antony Green has called it: John Alexander will retain Bennelong:
There is no sign of a swing larger than that or significantly larger than that which could endanger the Liberal Party holding the seat and John Alexander will be re-elected.
Labor is trying to put the best spin on the 2 party preferred swing, which at this stage seems smaller than what they were hoping for -- though it’s jumping about and some big booths are yet to report.
We’ve all just received text messages are reminding us that Peter Dutton, Christian Porter and Craig Laundy would all lose their seats if the swing was replicated in a general election.
And the Turnbull government would lose office, of course.Expect lots of debate on how to interpret this peculiar by-election.
Hearing reports the champagne is starting to be handed out at John Alexander’s party.
Almost 15% of the vote has been counted and the swing is hovering around 5% against John Alexander. (That is about standard for a byelection.)
That gives him plenty of room. I can’t see Labor winning from here.
#BennelongVotes 26.0% counted, First pref pcts - LIB 42.7, ALP 36.6, GRN 7.3, CDP 2.9, CON 4.7, OTH 5.8 - results at https://t.co/AsDnvgH3ok
Remember just a short time ago when Christopher Pyne was arguing that the byelection result would not have any implications for Malcolm Turnbull?
Well, he is now arguing that the byelection result will have massive implications for Bill Shorten:
“They have talked up this byelection very big … but truth is, Labor expected to do much much better … and if the Labor party doesn’t do well, it has very serious implications for Bill Shorten and his style of politics, which is the 12-hour news cycle, not even the 24-hour news cycle”
Again on the preference issue (which can not be underestimated this byelection) here is what Katharine Murphy had to say about the role of the Australian Conservatives party in Bennelong:
For folks interested in the Bernardi vote, I addressed his objectives for tonight in today's analysis: AC as the "safe" protest vote https://t.co/Fb4h3ucpwt #Bennelong #auspol
Just under 10% of the vote has been counted and the two-party preferred measure has jumped to a swing of 5.23%.
Tony Burke is seeing some silver linings:
This is a byelection where the people were told the government would lose its majority.
They have still voted in these sort of numbers, in a general election it would be a shift of 24 seats.”