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Bennelong byelection: Turnbull under pressure as polls close – politics live Bennelong byelection: Kristina Keneally and John Alexander vote results – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Antony Green has [obviously] not called the election as yet, but here is what he has had to say about those preference flows so far:
It’s certainly a far better result for the Liberal Party than the opinion polling was indicating.
Again, more counting to come but everything is indicating the Liberal Party should be able to hold the seat because the gap on first preferences is too big to close given the minor party that’s on the count.”
We have had 12 of the 39 booths counted.
The primary vote swing against John Alexander is still hovering around 6 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, it looks like most of that vote Alexander has lost is flowing back to him through preferences, with the 2PP showing just under a 2 per cent swing.
Tony Burke has a theory on preferences:
One of the things that will be different here, for both the Christian Democrat vote and the Australian Conservatives’ vote is, in a byelection, they have the capacity to staff every polling booth for the entire day. In a general election, they don’t have the capacity to do that at every seat so you will find their preference, how-to-votes, which consistently go to the Liberal party – every voter will have gone into the polling booth having been offered one.”
“This isn’t your usual byelection,” Labor’s Matt Thistlethwaite says.
You can say that again. We are in for a looooooong night.
Christopher Pyne thinks Labor would be disappointed with the result so far.
We have counted less than 5% of the vote.
Carlingford: ALP up 11.4%. Liberals down 13.5%; Eastwood West Booth, ALP up 4%. Liberals down 6.6%. These have significant numbers of Chinese Australian voters.
Macquarie Park Booth. Combination of New Highrise and old Highrise plus student populations. ALP up 9.5% Liberals down 8.1%
Seven booths in and Labor is claiming a swing of about 7 per cent
Completely off Bennelong, but I do like to try to please all my readers:
Australian cricket captain Steve Smith has just chalked up a double century in the third Ashes test.
You’re welcome.
We are in for the long haul on this one, people. Don’t expect a New England style result. The booths are not only bigger, the ballot paper is fairly crowded.
I am grabbing my next coffee as we speak.
Also - keep an eye on the result of the Australian Conservatives. Cory Bernardi seized this opportunity to stick it to the Liberals. Those preferences will still flow to the Liberals, but Bernardi is going to enjoy each and every vote which comes in with AC ahead of his former colleagues. Really, really enjoy it.
Early results (and we are talking really early. It’s two booths)
John Alexander is down just over 7%, with that going to Kristina Keneally.
But I stress, this is two booths.
Follow along here.
Over on the ABC, Tony Burke has had a bit to say on what implications there were for the Labor campaign over the Sam Dastyari situation:
I think it had two impacts. No doubt there was a story going back and forth that that was bad for Labor. No doubt about that.
The other thing that was happening at the same time, the decision of the government to focus so heavily on that issue meant, particularly that week we had in parliament, the government had made a decision that the issues they would be talking about, and pushing hard, were not the issues that most Australians would consider the most important to them if they’re voting in a byelection.
That was a strategic call. You always make the decision if you are going on the attack that you are going to be talking politics rather than people’s household lives. The subject matter, yep, no doubt that hurt us during that time but the decision of the prime minister that that would become the major national conversation, I’m not sure how smart that was.”
Anyone wanting a bit more on what Christopher Pyne had to say about implications for Malcolm Turnbull, if the Liberals lose this byelection:Anyone wanting a bit more on what Christopher Pyne had to say about implications for Malcolm Turnbull, if the Liberals lose this byelection:
.@cpyne says the Liberal Party is ‘absolutely committed’ to @TurnbullMalcolm and the result of the Bennelong by-election will have no implications on his leadership. MORE: https://t.co/OBLbGPTYXn pic.twitter.com/eBMGeRh2eh.@cpyne says the Liberal Party is ‘absolutely committed’ to @TurnbullMalcolm and the result of the Bennelong by-election will have no implications on his leadership. MORE: https://t.co/OBLbGPTYXn pic.twitter.com/eBMGeRh2eh
Greetings from the Ryde-Eastwood Leagues Club in Sydney’s northern suburbs, where the only thing hotter than the bain marie is John Alexander and the only thing brighter than the lights from the pokies room is the zeal for democratic expression.Greetings from the Ryde-Eastwood Leagues Club in Sydney’s northern suburbs, where the only thing hotter than the bain marie is John Alexander and the only thing brighter than the lights from the pokies room is the zeal for democratic expression.
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has set up this byelection as a vote of colossal significance. The people of Bennelong aren’t just picking a local MP, they’re deciding the fate of “thousands of jobs and the future of millions of Australians”.The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has set up this byelection as a vote of colossal significance. The people of Bennelong aren’t just picking a local MP, they’re deciding the fate of “thousands of jobs and the future of millions of Australians”.
And well he should. We all know how crucial this election is and why. Not least because of the Liberal party doesn’t hang on here one of those thousands of lost jobs could be his. And well he should. We all know how crucial this election is and why. Not least because if the Liberal party doesn’t hang on here, one of those thousands of lost jobs could be his.
Recognising this, the government’s shipped in the big guns from Canberra for polling day. Recognising this, the government has shipped in the big guns from Canberra for polling day.
Besides Turnbull himself, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, defence minister Marise Payne, and the leader of the house, Chris Pyne, have all been spotted handing out for Alexander in Bennelong on Saturday. Besides Turnbull himself, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, defence minister Marise Payne and the leader of the house, Chris Pyne, have all been spotted handing out for Alexander in Bennelong on Saturday.
I’ll let you know what they all get up to tonight once they show.I’ll let you know what they all get up to tonight once they show.
The polling says Alexander is predicted to hang on tonight, but if he doesn’t, it’s hard to think of a more suitable venue to watch it all unfold.The polling says Alexander is predicted to hang on tonight, but if he doesn’t, it’s hard to think of a more suitable venue to watch it all unfold.
When oblivion comes I want the VB on tap and the cricket on loud.When oblivion comes I want the VB on tap and the cricket on loud.
There are no challenges for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership,” Christopher Pyne says.There are no challenges for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership,” Christopher Pyne says.
... The Liberal party is absolutely committed to Malcolm Turnbull from here through to the next election.”... The Liberal party is absolutely committed to Malcolm Turnbull from here through to the next election.”
But I can’t imagine the party will be overly happy if the Liberals lose a seat with a 9% margin.But I can’t imagine the party will be overly happy if the Liberals lose a seat with a 9% margin.
“A win is a win is a win, in my book,” Christopher Pyne says.“A win is a win is a win, in my book,” Christopher Pyne says.
He says a loss will not be a comment on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Let’s remember that, if there is a win, and the government line is that this is a vote of confidence in the prime minister.He says a loss will not be a comment on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Let’s remember that, if there is a win, and the government line is that this is a vote of confidence in the prime minister.
For those playing along at home, you can follow the tally room results as they roll in, here.For those playing along at home, you can follow the tally room results as they roll in, here.
If sheer number of posters, how-to-votes and volunteers have any impact, then Kristina Keneally and Labor have carpet-bombed the seat of Bennelong.If sheer number of posters, how-to-votes and volunteers have any impact, then Kristina Keneally and Labor have carpet-bombed the seat of Bennelong.
At polling places throughout the seat Keneally smiled out from dozens of posters, outnumbering the Liberal candidate, John Alexander, sometimes 10 to 1.At polling places throughout the seat Keneally smiled out from dozens of posters, outnumbering the Liberal candidate, John Alexander, sometimes 10 to 1.
So overwhelming was the Keneally paraphernalia that some polling places looked more like ALP headquarters.So overwhelming was the Keneally paraphernalia that some polling places looked more like ALP headquarters.
According to the NSW ALP, they have had 4,000 volunteers working the seat over the past 32 days. They say they have made 60,000 personal phone calls and doorknocked 50,000 homes. That’s pretty much every voter. Volunteers came from all over the state to help today.According to the NSW ALP, they have had 4,000 volunteers working the seat over the past 32 days. They say they have made 60,000 personal phone calls and doorknocked 50,000 homes. That’s pretty much every voter. Volunteers came from all over the state to help today.
It was like pollie bingo at most polling booths. Both sides have wheeled out the big guns. with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten out on the hustings along with senior ministers and shadows.It was like pollie bingo at most polling booths. Both sides have wheeled out the big guns. with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten out on the hustings along with senior ministers and shadows.
Polling indicates that Alexander will be returned but with a reduced margin.Polling indicates that Alexander will be returned but with a reduced margin.
Over on the ABC, Trent Zimmerman is also giving his two cents’ worth.Over on the ABC, Trent Zimmerman is also giving his two cents’ worth.
Asked what a loss would mean for Malcolm Turnbull, he says:Asked what a loss would mean for Malcolm Turnbull, he says:
Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it during the course of the evening.”Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it during the course of the evening.”
I’m not sure he meant to say “when” there.I’m not sure he meant to say “when” there.
Christopher Pyne is on Sky and he says he hasn’t picked up on a mood for change – at least at the booth he was at.
“There certainly wasn’t a mood for kicking out John Alexander at North Ryde today”.
But he adds “but that could change”.
Let’s also remember that given how close this byelection is to Christmas, postal votes are going to play a role.
Labor senator Matt Thistlethwaite also says he thinks John Alexander will win:
“I think John Alexander will be returned, there wasn’t that smashing feeling that there was a massive swing on,” he says.
Labor has been playing down its chances from day one. It would need at least a 10% swing to take the seat.
Let the count begin.
Get those predictions rolling in the comments.
Polls are almost closed – but here is a taste of what we were talking about, in regards to where this campaign went.
Bill Shorten gave his verdict on the campaign today:
I think that if Mr Turnbull had his time again he wouldn’t have engaged in his trademark overreach and his promotion of China-phobia. There is no doubt that he wanted to pursue Senator Dastyari, and Sam Dastyari did make some very serious lapses of judgement. But we all know about this Prime Minister.
His classic trademark is to show poor judgement and overreach on an issue. The fact that from the Government of China to Chinese Australians, all universally expressing concern that the chief spokesman for Australia is engaging in dividing the community.”
And Malcolm Turnbull responded:
I mean what does it say about the desperation of the Labor Party, that they would try to suggest that I am ‘China-phobic’ or have got something against Chinese people? I mean, there are one million Australians of Chinese ancestry, one of them is my granddaughter, Lucy and my granddaughter.
I mean, Labor is desperate and it is really, it really should give us all cause for pause to think that in their desperation they want to turn Australians against each other.
But you know something? John and I and the people of Bennelong will not be dissuaded by that, will not be persuaded by that.
This is desperation tactics from Labor. It just shows that they don’t have an answer to the challenges that we’ve set out for them.”
The final day on the hustings was certainly a warm one in Sydney – and of course Mike Bowers was out and about in it.
You have to feel sorry for the people of Bennelong. Given how much is riding on this by-election, voters have been inundated with campaign materials, robo calls and volunteer door knocks.
Both sides have been accused of dirty tactics and going too far. And it is not just those handing out campaign materials. Both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull have been accused of over-egging with their rhetoric. Turnbull seized on the Sam Dastyari story , questioning his loyalty to Australia, while Shorten accused Turnbull of being “china-phobic”.
At least it is almost over.
Ben Raue has written up a nice piece at what is at stake here. You’ll find that here with an explanation of why polling single seats is so difficult:
Alexander won a third term in 2016 with a 9.7% margin. National polls suggest a national swing to Labor of up to 5%, but byelections often see larger swings. A 10% swing is definitely achievable.
There have been four polls in Bennelong – two gave Alexander a lead of 3%, while the other two had the race tied. Seat polling is not a perfect science, but these polls suggest a sizeable swing to Labor. Trying to make a more precise prediction risks leaving egg on your face.
There are 106,000 registered voters in Bennelong. The big question though is how many are actually home this weekend and what sort of voter turnout can be expected the weekend before Christmas.
One of the big problems faced by Labor is that most uni students who live around Macquarie University in the electorate finished up some weeks ago, and many would have headed overseas or to their families, before the byelection was called.
As for families heading off for holidays, the Australian Electoral Commission says 13,000 voters have done a pre-poll vote, and 16,000 have applied for a postal vote. That doesn’t mean all of them will translate into actual votes – but its a significant number and if it’s close, we might be waiting some time while postal votes are received and counted.
Postal votes have a higher proportion of 55-plus voters because they know what a post box is. So the Liberals will feel more confident than Labor if its comes down to the wire.
That leaves about 75,000 voters to vote in person. Generally turnout is lower in byelections – around 80%. But this ain’t any ordinary byelection.
Polls close at 6pm
Whoever wins the seat is the simplistic winner.
But what will be a political win for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull? And what will be a “win” for Labor.
Over the last 24 hours each side has been seeking to define success in Bennelong.
For Turnbull, obviously a loss would be catastrophic – but not the most likely result.
The polls suggest John Alexander who holds the seat with a 9.8% margin, will be returned with a reduced majority.
Labor has held the seat just once since it was proclaimed as a seat in 1949, when the high profile TV personality Maxine McKew, beat John Howard in the 2007 Rudd landslide.
But what if John Alexander just scrapes back? How to interpret the swing?
Just taking a look at Bennelong, it has been a Liberal seat – except when the Ruddslide saw the Chinese community shift to Labor in 2007, when Maxine McKew won it for Labor for the first time in 33 years. It went back to the Liberals at the 2010 election, though, when John Alexander first won it.
But some fast stats, courtesy of the 2016 census, which point to why the Chinese vote has been considered so important.
Population – 168,948
Chinese ancestry – 44,341
Born in China – 22,527
Both parents born overseas – 61.2%
Welcome to a special edition of politics live, as we follow the results from the Bennelong byelection.
If the polls are to be believed, it’s meant to be a tight contest. If the commentary is to be believed, it is not just the fate of Bennelong’s representation at risk – a bad result for the Coalition could mean some rough sailing for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
A loss will also mean the end of the Turnbull government’s oneseat majority. Independent Cathy McGowan has already ruled out become Speaker to help the government bolster its numbers on the floor, so there is a lot riding on this result.
Polls close in just under an hour, so we will bring you all the results as they start rolling in.
But the campaigning has not stopped. Kristina Keneally is still at the polls, with Labor throwing everything it has at the seat. Labor built its campaign around “send Malcolm Turnbull a message”. Turnbull has taken up the challenge over the last four weeks. The prime minister has been out in force in support of John Alexander, along with senior members of his cabinet.
The latest poll suggests the swing is on – but will it be enough to cause an upset?
Let’s find out.