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Bennelong byelection: Kristina Keneally concedes to John Alexander – politics live
Bennelong byelection: Kristina Keneally concedes to John Alexander – politics live
(35 minutes later)
“What an extraordinary result,” she says.
Liberal supporters are chanting “we want John” as the pair approach the stage
“We knew this was an intense campaign, especially just before the holidays.”
The cheers are getting louder at Liberal HQ.
She thanks all those who worked on the campaign and all those who voted Labor.
I’d say John Alexander and Malcolm Turnbull are in the building
“I want to congratulate John Alexander,” she says.
Matt Thistlethwaite is speaking about a potential Batman byelection (in the event the high court rules David Feeney was ineligible because of dual citizenship) but refuses to say that he will be the candidate who contests the election.
“...Now friends, I am not here tonight to claim victory for the Labor party. But I am here tonight to claim success for the Labor movement.”
He points out he is not from that state (Victoria) but says that Feeney will nominate and there will be a preselection process. What he doesn’t say, is that he will win that preselection.
Kristina Keneally looks like she is arriving at the Labor Bennelong party with Bill Shorten. She will be conceding.
While we are waiting on John Alexander and Malcolm Turnbull to speak, a couple more Mike Bowers shots from the happiest concession party you ever did see:
Having said that, Matt Thistlethwaite (whose name, as someone with a lisp, is my worst nightmare) says he would also like to see Kristina Keneally have another go at Bennelong in a general election.
With 37 of the 39 booths returned, Labor has seen a swing of about 5.58% on the two-party preferred measure.
But he also says she would be “an asset” in the Senate.
As for what Antony Green thinks of using the byelection swing and applying it nationally:
Matt Thistlethwaite is now saying that if this wasn’t a byelection, Labor probably wouldn’t have run a candidate:
I think it is pointless discussing the byelection. What’s more relevant is the national polls and there hasn’t been a national poll for a very long time.
“It is a deeply conservative seat,” he says.
“The national percentage is more reliable. Byelections, it may be bigger or smaller than the next general election. The swing in this byelection is slightly bigger than the national swing you see in opinion polls.
Christopher Pyne just said that the Liberals’ internal polling showed that every time Malcolm Turnbull campaigned in the seat, the Coalition’s polling improved.
“The rule of thumb is usually a byelection swing will be twice whatever the national polls are.
Malcolm Turnbull is en-route to the Liberal Bennelong party.
“It may be the John Alexander factor or a number of reasons. I think the national polls are far more important.”
On the primary vote, with just under 50% of the vote counted, Kristina Keneally has picked up just over 7.8 per cent of the vote. John Alexander’s primary vote has dropped by just over 6.8%. But the preferences from the Australian Conservatives (which looks to have taken a large chunk of the vote from the Christian Democrat Party) are flowing pretty much straight back to Alexander, which has given him a comfortable win.
Matt Thistlethwaite says it is “mission accomplished” for Labor, in the sense that they have taken a safe Liberal seat and made it a marginal Liberal seat, “and puts us in a very good position to win next time”.
Someone just got themselves back on the Christmas card list.
John Alexander and Malcolm Turnbull are due to give their victory speeches at any moment.
The mood at Labor’s Bennelong HQ doesn’t appear quite as jubilant
This is assuming of course, that Alexander is allowed to speak for himself this time.
Having a look at the projected result from the AEC and the prediction is hovering around 55% to 45%.
That was the most victorious concession speech I have ever heard.
#BennelongVotes preferences to Labor 47.6% compared to last election 55.3% on common booths - results at https://t.co/AsDnvgH3ok
Shorten then makes his play for the general election:
Growing up in south-west Sydney I was only ever peripherally aware that the northern suburbs existed. It always had this weird nebulous quality to it, somewhere you went past on the train to Newcastle. Watching the coverage of the byelection unfold, I get the sense that I’m not alone.
I … promise you, in 2018 – I make this promise to the Australian people: Labor will present positive policies, we will present policies which speak to people’s lives, the cost of living, the energy prices, the schools, the Medicare needs of Australians.
A lot has been made about the high population of voters with a Chinese background and what they might or might not *do*. Whether there would be a backlash against the government because of its foreign influence laws, etc.
“I promise in 2018, it will be a year of courage because the Australian people want courage from the Labor party and I promise you, using tonight’s example, we will be courageous and we will stand up and put people first.”
For what it’s worth though, one of the three people to hold this seat, Maxine McKew, told me earlier in the campaign that she thought the focus on ethnicity was overblown.
Bill Shorten also quotes Malcolm Turnbull, saying it “was a poll on his government” and says he was correct:
“Everyone concentrates on ethnicity but income is a more accurate guide to voting patterns,” she told me.
“Friends, this was not an ordinary byelection. Normally in a byelection, the former member doesn’t run again. So … therefore, we enjoyed the benefit in the swing of perhaps the lessening of their personal vote, so I congratulate John Alexander but what I recognise is that, because he was running again, this 5.5 to 6% two-party preferred vote, I think a swing over 7% will end up or near 7% on primaries, that entire swing is attributable to Malcolm Turnbull and his rotten policies for this country.
She considers the seat “socially conservative” – pointing out the no vote in the same-sex marriage postal vote – but still thinks it’s “open to persuasion”.
Kristina Keneally introduces Bill Shorten:
And for those wanting a visual of that:
I know when we do go to the next election, there will be millions of Australians who want to have their say on Malcolm Turnbull and his lousy government and what I say to them is you have a choice. You have a choice at the next general election. You have a choice to have a prime minister who cares for the vulnerable, who stands up and fights for working people, who is a man who knows who he is, comfortable in his skin and fights for what is right and for what is fair. He is a great friend of mine. He has been a tremendous support on this campaign.
Alexander’s supporters react when Labor HQ pops up on @SkyNewsAust #BennelongVotes #auspol @9NewsAUS pic.twitter.com/he2lmZbO56
“He is the next prime minister of Australia, Bill Shorten.”
Looks like there is movement at Labor’s Bennelong headquarters: I would expect an announcement from Kristina Keneally soon.
Kristina Keneally says that the result is a verdict on Malcolm Turnbull:
Big “JA” cheer goes up when a dour looking Labor Party function comes up on Sky.
The verdict is in, the message is clear, we have had enough of your lousy leadership.
With just under 30% of the vote counted, the swing (on 2PP) is sitting at just under 4.6%.
“Malcolm Turnbull injected himself in this campaign, he owns this result, he owns this result. There is no doubt that thousands of people who voted Liberal just a year ago, abandoned [the Coalition].”
This will bounce around a little before all the votes are counted. But it’s about right (right now, a little under) the usual result for a byelection
Here is what the Liberal Party party looks like:
A sea of blue shirts, with a smattering of names among the early crowd: Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is working the (literally) taped off media area, and I’ve seen Fiona Scott wandering around too.
We walked in right as Steve Smith brought up his double ton in the Ashes and the big cheer from the sports bar downstairs had everyone rushing to the tvs (we’re on Sky, not the ABC) to see if a booth had come in.
(The network camera crews are grumbling about it being unAustralian not to have the cricket on).
The vibe from the enclosure though is that it’s definitely a cheerful crowd. Lots of selfies and (a few) fist bumps! Despite the expected swing, at the moment the brains trust are telling the media that with a third of the vote counted they’re starting to relax: they say it’ll definitely stay on the benign side of 6%. Things could change quite dramatically, of course, but the sense at the moment is vaguely positive.
There’s a heavy rider on that statement though: we haven’t yet reached 8pm and already there is a severe shortage of party pies. If things don’t go the way they should, I expect some riled up volunteers.
And we have moved on to Batman. Trent Zimmerman is predicting a Labor loss (if David Feeney is found to have been ineligible by the high court, after the Labor MP couldn’t find his documents that he renounced his British citizenship in 2007)
I think is going to mean that Bill Shorten’s going to be very nervous if there is a byelection in Batman in Melbourne early in the new year.
The contest will be different against the Greens but it wouldn’t give him any confidence he is going to be able to hold that seat
However we will have to hear both sides spin a 5 per cent swing as a win.
The best news from tonight is we will not have to hear every single senior government minister repeat the phrase that John Alexander is “Australia’s champion...and Bennelong’s champion” for quite some time.
