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Bennelong byelection: Kristina Keneally and John Alexander vote results – politics live Bennelong byelection: John Alexander on track to beat Kristina Keneally – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Antony Green has [obviously] not called the election as yet, but here is what he has had to say about those preference flows so far: Growing up in South-West Sydney I was only ever peripherally aware that the northern suburbs existed. It always had this weird nebulous quality to it, somewhere you went past on the train to Newcastle. Watching the coverage of the byelection unfold, I get the sense that I’m not alone.
It’s certainly a far better result for the Liberal Party than the opinion polling was indicating. A lot has been made about the high population of voters with a Chinese background and they might or might not *do*. Whether there’d be a backlash against the government because of its foreign influence laws, etcetera.
Again, more counting to come but everything is indicating the Liberal Party should be able to hold the seat because the gap on first preferences is too big to close given the minor party that’s on the count.” For what it’s worth though, one of the three people to hold this seat, Maxine McKew, told me earlier in the campaign that she thought the focus on ethnicity was over-blown.
We have had 12 of the 39 booths counted. “Everyone concentrates on ethnicity but income is a more accurate guide to voting patterns,” she told me.
The primary vote swing against John Alexander is still hovering around 6 per cent. She considers the seat “socially conservative” - pointing out the no vote in the same-sex marriage postal vote - but still thinks it’s “open to persuasion”.
On a two-party preferred basis, it looks like most of that vote Alexander has lost is flowing back to him through preferences, with the 2PP showing just under a 2 per cent swing. And for those wanting a visual of that:
Tony Burke has a theory on preferences: Alexander’s supporters react when Labor HQ pops up on @SkyNewsAust #BennelongVotes #auspol @9NewsAUS pic.twitter.com/he2lmZbO56
One of the things that will be different here, for both the Christian Democrat vote and the Australian Conservatives’ vote is, in a byelection, they have the capacity to staff every polling booth for the entire day. In a general election, they don’t have the capacity to do that at every seat so you will find their preference, how-to-votes, which consistently go to the Liberal party – every voter will have gone into the polling booth having been offered one.” Looks like there is movement at Labor’s Bennelong headquarters: I would expect an announcement from Kristina Keneally soon.
“This isn’t your usual byelection,” Labor’s Matt Thistlethwaite says. Big “JA” cheer goes up when a dour looking Labor Party function comes up on Sky.
You can say that again. We are in for a looooooong night. With just under 30 per cent of the vote called, the swing (on 2PP) is sitting at just under 4.6 per cent.
Christopher Pyne thinks Labor would be disappointed with the result so far. This will bounce around a little before all the votes are counted. But it’s about right (right now, a little under) the usual result for a byelection
We have counted less than 5% of the vote. Here is what the Liberal Party party looks like:
Carlingford: ALP up 11.4%. Liberals down 13.5%; Eastwood West Booth, ALP up 4%. Liberals down 6.6%. These have significant numbers of Chinese Australian voters. A sea of blue shirts, with a smattering of names among the early crowd: Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is working the (literally) taped off media area, and I’ve seen Fiona Scott wandering around too.
Macquarie Park Booth. Combination of New Highrise and old Highrise plus student populations. ALP up 9.5% Liberals down 8.1% We walked in right as Steve Smith brought up his double ton in the Ashes and the big cheer from the sports bar downstairs had everyone rushing to the tvs (we’re on Sky, not the ABC) to see if a booth had come in.
Seven booths in and Labor is claiming a swing of about 7 per cent (The network camera crews are grumbling about it being unAustralian not to have the cricket on).
Completely off Bennelong, but I do like to try to please all my readers: The vibe from the enclosure though is that it’s definitely a cheerful crowd. Lots of selfies and (a few) fist bumps! Despite the expected swing, at the moment the brains trust are telling the media that with a third of the vote counted they’re starting to relax: they say it’ll definitely stay on the benign side of 6%. Things could change quite dramatically, of course, but the sense at the moment is vaguely positive.
Australian cricket captain Steve Smith has just chalked up a double century in the third Ashes test. There’s a heavy rider on that statement though: we haven’t yet reached 8pm and already there is a severe shortage of party pies. If things don’t go the way they should, I expect some riled up volunteers.
You’re welcome. And we have moved on to Batman. Trent Zimmerman is predicting a Labor loss (if David Feeney is found to have been ineligible by the high court, after the Labor MP couldn’t find his documents that he renounced his British citizenship in 2007)
We are in for the long haul on this one, people. Don’t expect a New England style result. The booths are not only bigger, the ballot paper is fairly crowded. I think is going to mean that Bill Shorten’s going to be very nervous if there is a byelection in Batman in Melbourne early in the new year.
I am grabbing my next coffee as we speak. The contest will be different against the Greens but it wouldn’t give him any confidence he is going to be able to hold that seat
Also - keep an eye on the result of the Australian Conservatives. Cory Bernardi seized this opportunity to stick it to the Liberals. Those preferences will still flow to the Liberals, but Bernardi is going to enjoy each and every vote which comes in with AC ahead of his former colleagues. Really, really enjoy it. However we will have to hear both sides spin a 5 per cent swing as a win.
Early results (and we are talking really early. It’s two booths) The best news from tonight is we will not have to hear every single senior government minister repeat the phrase that John Alexander is “Australia’s champion...and Bennelong’s champion” for quite some time.
John Alexander is down just over 7%, with that going to Kristina Keneally. So – what are the thoughts on Kristina Keneally taking over from Sam Dastyari in the Senate?
But I stress, this is two booths. A few days ago, she refused to rule “anything in or out”.
Follow along here. Tony Burke has just repeated that message Anne Davies reported just a few moments ago:
Over on the ABC, Tony Burke has had a bit to say on what implications there were for the Labor campaign over the Sam Dastyari situation: The only accident of history the government’s got tonight is this byelection has happened in a 9%seat.
I think it had two impacts. No doubt there was a story going back and forth that that was bad for Labor. No doubt about that. But this is the sort of swing - Peter Dutton would be obliterated if a swing like this was on.
The other thing that was happening at the same time, the decision of the government to focus so heavily on that issue meant, particularly that week we had in parliament, the government had made a decision that the issues they would be talking about, and pushing hard, were not the issues that most Australians would consider the most important to them if they’re voting in a byelection. Christian Porter would be gone. [That’s] a whole series of very prominent government members who aren’t even members of parliament if a swing that’s anything like this happens at a general election.
That was a strategic call. You always make the decision if you are going on the attack that you are going to be talking politics rather than people’s household lives. The subject matter, yep, no doubt that hurt us during that time but the decision of the prime minister that that would become the major national conversation, I’m not sure how smart that was.” Antony Green has called it: John Alexander will retain Bennelong:
Anyone wanting a bit more on what Christopher Pyne had to say about implications for Malcolm Turnbull, if the Liberals lose this byelection: There is no sign of a swing larger than that or significantly larger than that which could endanger the Liberal Party holding the seat and John Alexander will be re-elected.
.@cpyne says the Liberal Party is ‘absolutely committed’ to @TurnbullMalcolm and the result of the Bennelong by-election will have no implications on his leadership. MORE: https://t.co/OBLbGPTYXn pic.twitter.com/eBMGeRh2eh Labor is trying to put the best spin on the 2 party preferred swing, which at this stage seems smaller than what they were hoping for -- though it’s jumping about and some big booths are yet to report.
Greetings from the Ryde-Eastwood Leagues Club in Sydney’s northern suburbs, where the only thing hotter than the bain marie is John Alexander and the only thing brighter than the lights from the pokies room is the zeal for democratic expression. We’ve all just received text messages are reminding us that Peter Dutton, Christian Porter and Craig Laundy would all lose their seats if the swing was replicated in a general election.
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has set up this byelection as a vote of colossal significance. The people of Bennelong aren’t just picking a local MP, they’re deciding the fate of “thousands of jobs and the future of millions of Australians”. And the Turnbull government would lose office, of course.Expect lots of debate on how to interpret this peculiar by-election.
And well he should. We all know how crucial this election is and why. Not least because if the Liberal party doesn’t hang on here, one of those thousands of lost jobs could be his. Hearing reports the champagne is starting to be handed out at John Alexander’s party.
Recognising this, the government has shipped in the big guns from Canberra for polling day. Almost 15% of the vote has been counted and the swing is hovering around 5% against John Alexander. (That is about standard for a byelection.)
Besides Turnbull himself, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, defence minister Marise Payne and the leader of the house, Chris Pyne, have all been spotted handing out for Alexander in Bennelong on Saturday. That gives him plenty of room. I can’t see Labor winning from here.
I’ll let you know what they all get up to tonight once they show. #BennelongVotes 26.0% counted, First pref pcts - LIB 42.7, ALP 36.6, GRN 7.3, CDP 2.9, CON 4.7, OTH 5.8 - results at https://t.co/AsDnvgH3ok
The polling says Alexander is predicted to hang on tonight, but if he doesn’t, it’s hard to think of a more suitable venue to watch it all unfold. Remember just a short time ago when Christopher Pyne was arguing that the byelection result would not have any implications for Malcolm Turnbull?
When oblivion comes I want the VB on tap and the cricket on loud. Well, he is now arguing that the byelection result will have massive implications for Bill Shorten:
There are no challenges for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership,” Christopher Pyne says. “They have talked up this byelection very big … but truth is, Labor expected to do much much better … and if the Labor party doesn’t do well, it has very serious implications for Bill Shorten and his style of politics, which is the 12-hour news cycle, not even the 24-hour news cycle”
... The Liberal party is absolutely committed to Malcolm Turnbull from here through to the next election.” Again on the preference issue (which can not be underestimated this byelection) here is what Katharine Murphy had to say about the role of the Australian Conservatives party in Bennelong:
But I can’t imagine the party will be overly happy if the Liberals lose a seat with a 9% margin. For folks interested in the Bernardi vote, I addressed his objectives for tonight in today's analysis: AC as the "safe" protest vote https://t.co/Fb4h3ucpwt #Bennelong #auspol
“A win is a win is a win, in my book,” Christopher Pyne says. Just under 10% of the vote has been counted and the two-party preferred measure has jumped to a swing of 5.23%.
He says a loss will not be a comment on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Let’s remember that, if there is a win, and the government line is that this is a vote of confidence in the prime minister. Tony Burke is seeing some silver linings:
For those playing along at home, you can follow the tally room results as they roll in, here. This is a byelection where the people were told the government would lose its majority.
If sheer number of posters, how-to-votes and volunteers have any impact, then Kristina Keneally and Labor have carpet-bombed the seat of Bennelong. They have still voted in these sort of numbers, in a general election it would be a shift of 24 seats.”
At polling places throughout the seat Keneally smiled out from dozens of posters, outnumbering the Liberal candidate, John Alexander, sometimes 10 to 1.
So overwhelming was the Keneally paraphernalia that some polling places looked more like ALP headquarters.
According to the NSW ALP, they have had 4,000 volunteers working the seat over the past 32 days. They say they have made 60,000 personal phone calls and doorknocked 50,000 homes. That’s pretty much every voter. Volunteers came from all over the state to help today.
It was like pollie bingo at most polling booths. Both sides have wheeled out the big guns. with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten out on the hustings along with senior ministers and shadows.
Polling indicates that Alexander will be returned but with a reduced margin.
Over on the ABC, Trent Zimmerman is also giving his two cents’ worth.
Asked what a loss would mean for Malcolm Turnbull, he says:
Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it during the course of the evening.”
I’m not sure he meant to say “when” there.