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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/jul/28/super-saturday-byelections-longman-braddon-labor-shorten-mayo-fremantle-perth-politics-live
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| Super Saturday elections: final votes cast in Longman and Braddon – politics live | Super Saturday elections: final votes cast in Longman and Braddon – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Woo! There have been about 200 votes counted. | |
| What a time to be alive. | |
| Status - we still know nothing. | |
| We’re at the point of the night where no one actually has anything to say. So we are hearing a lot of predictions and recapping, but nothing we haven’t actually heard before. | |
| For the record, the consensus seems to be | |
| Mayo – Rebekha Sharkie, Centre Alliance | |
| Braddon – shrug emoji | |
| Longman – shrug emoji | |
| Fremantle/Perth – still voting, but Labor | |
| So the panels are up and running – and Liberal Trent Zimmerman has just told the ABC he believes the night is a “toss of the coin”. | |
| With polls closed, hit us up with your predictions in the comments - who is going to win and where? | |
| The polls have closed in Longman and Braddon. | |
| Meanwhile, in Longman: | Meanwhile, in Longman: |
| Found a cardboard cut-out. Labor made an addition though. pic.twitter.com/AZeqkKJ9ur | Found a cardboard cut-out. Labor made an addition though. pic.twitter.com/AZeqkKJ9ur |
| We’ll be bringing you the seats as they are updated, but for those who just can’t get enough raw data, you can follow along with the AEC: | We’ll be bringing you the seats as they are updated, but for those who just can’t get enough raw data, you can follow along with the AEC: |
| Progressive results for the #2018byelections will be provided via our tally rooms at https://t.co/kDXRrq4qqc as they become available after polls close at 6pm local time. #auspol | Progressive results for the #2018byelections will be provided via our tally rooms at https://t.co/kDXRrq4qqc as they become available after polls close at 6pm local time. #auspol |
| Labor volunteers are very cautious but positive about Susan Lamb’s chances in Longman. | Labor volunteers are very cautious but positive about Susan Lamb’s chances in Longman. |
| The result be shaped by the strength of the One Nation vote and how strongly preferences then flow to the LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg. | The result be shaped by the strength of the One Nation vote and how strongly preferences then flow to the LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg. |
| One booth worker says he thinks the One Nation vote has been down compared the Queensland state election in November. | One booth worker says he thinks the One Nation vote has been down compared the Queensland state election in November. |
| Labor also feel the LNP primary vote will be diminished.The One Nation vote in Longman is a fairly interesting side story. | Labor also feel the LNP primary vote will be diminished.The One Nation vote in Longman is a fairly interesting side story. |
| Polls have candidate Matthew Stephen with about 15% of the primary vote. | Polls have candidate Matthew Stephen with about 15% of the primary vote. |
| That might seem like a solid improvement from the 9.4% One Nation polled in Longman in 2016. | That might seem like a solid improvement from the 9.4% One Nation polled in Longman in 2016. |
| But in corresponding seats at the 2017 Queensland election, Pauline Hanson’s party was polling 22% to 25%. The party’s weakest individual booth within the boundaries of Longman was 18%. | But in corresponding seats at the 2017 Queensland election, Pauline Hanson’s party was polling 22% to 25%. The party’s weakest individual booth within the boundaries of Longman was 18%. |
| That’s worth keeping in mind when the results graphics show a swing to the party. | |
| In a fun byelection fact, neither Brett Whitely or Trevor Ruthernberg, the government candidates for Braddon or Longman could vote for themselves today - as they live just outside the electorate. Whitely was asked about this: | In a fun byelection fact, neither Brett Whitely or Trevor Ruthernberg, the government candidates for Braddon or Longman could vote for themselves today - as they live just outside the electorate. Whitely was asked about this: |
| JOURNALIST: | JOURNALIST: |
| Are you sad you can’t add to your vote by voting for yourself? | Are you sad you can’t add to your vote by voting for yourself? |
| BRETT WHITELEY: | BRETT WHITELEY: |
| Look, I’m out supporting all my volunteers today. I’m in a number of booths today with the Prime Minister, helping to support the team, helping to support the ideal situation, which will be an election of Brett Whiteley as the next member for Braddon. | Look, I’m out supporting all my volunteers today. I’m in a number of booths today with the Prime Minister, helping to support the team, helping to support the ideal situation, which will be an election of Brett Whiteley as the next member for Braddon. |
| The polls close in less than 30 minutes. | The polls close in less than 30 minutes. |
| Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull started the day in Braddon, but Shorten has ended it in Longman. Which led to this exchange with a Tassie reporter today: | Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull started the day in Braddon, but Shorten has ended it in Longman. Which led to this exchange with a Tassie reporter today: |
| JOURNALIST: Mr Shorten, yourself and the prime minister have spent the morning in Braddon, I’m assuming you’ll be up to Longman this afternoon, does that mean that Longman is more important than Braddon to you both?SHORTEN: Well, I guess you can’t win. If I started in Brisbane you people might say should have started in Tassie. JOURNALIST: I’m a Tasmanian reporter, what am I supposed to ask? | JOURNALIST: Mr Shorten, yourself and the prime minister have spent the morning in Braddon, I’m assuming you’ll be up to Longman this afternoon, does that mean that Longman is more important than Braddon to you both?SHORTEN: Well, I guess you can’t win. If I started in Brisbane you people might say should have started in Tassie. JOURNALIST: I’m a Tasmanian reporter, what am I supposed to ask? |
| It’s D-day, as the byelections in Longman, Braddon, Mayo, Fremantle and Perth are decided. | It’s D-day, as the byelections in Longman, Braddon, Mayo, Fremantle and Perth are decided. |
| While the Western Australia elections have been largely ignored, given the Liberal party decided not to contest them, Queensland and Tasmania have received more than their fair share of attention. | |
| Meanwhile, Mayo in South Australia, which was meant to be Georgina Downer’s entree into politics, has turned out to be a way bigger battle than the Liberal party was prepared for, with Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie expected to retain it. | Meanwhile, Mayo in South Australia, which was meant to be Georgina Downer’s entree into politics, has turned out to be a way bigger battle than the Liberal party was prepared for, with Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie expected to retain it. |
| Which means all eyes are on Longman and Braddon, where we have NO idea what will happen. | Which means all eyes are on Longman and Braddon, where we have NO idea what will happen. |
| Not only are single seats notoriously difficult to poll, byelections usually make it impossible. The good burghers of Longman and Braddon are sick to death of the robocalls and phonecalls, surveys, journalists and politicians and their volunteers accosting them in the streets, shopping centres – and their homes – so getting an adequate picture of what is going on, is a pretty hard task. | |
| Then throw in absenteeism – voter turnout at byelections is usually lower than usual – and people on holidays, and boom: it’s a recipe for a big ole mess. | |
| But which way Longman and Braddon voters go will also determine what the next few months of politics looks like across the nation. If it goes against Labor, you can expect leadership tensions to boil over. If it goes against the government, you can expect any general election talk to be put off until next year. | But which way Longman and Braddon voters go will also determine what the next few months of politics looks like across the nation. If it goes against Labor, you can expect leadership tensions to boil over. If it goes against the government, you can expect any general election talk to be put off until next year. |
| So there is a lot riding on tonight. And that’s if we even get a result tonight! | So there is a lot riding on tonight. And that’s if we even get a result tonight! |
| But fear not – we will be with you until the counting stops. The early turnout for Longman and Braddon at pre-poll was pretty significant – there were six pre-poll booths in Longman alone – so if the government is ahead at the end of the night, that is very bad news for Labor, given postals usually go the conservative side’s way. | |
| And we also don’t know how One Nation votes will play out. | And we also don’t know how One Nation votes will play out. |
| There’s a lot to take in tonight. So I hope you have your beverage of choice and are settled somewhere comfortable. You can reach me at @amyremeikis on Twitter, or in the comment section, and there will be some behind the scenes stuff at @pyjamapolitics on Instagram. Katharine Murphy, Ben Raue and Ben Smee will also be making guest appearances. | |
| Ready? | Ready? |
| Let’s get into it. | Let’s get into it. |