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There are still eight booths to be counted … but the LNP vote just keeps dropping.
Now down 10.09%
That sound you hear is Peter Dutton’s jaw clenching.
Yup
I'm told Labor is preparing to claim Longman @AmyRemeikis #SuperSaturday #auspol
Rebehka Sharkie has taken to the stage to give her victory speech:
“It has been a marathon of a campaign, but we did this tonight, we did it, because of you,” she tells the room, before adding that you don’t need “huge wads of money” to win – that you need “people who are compassionate, people who care”, and that was proven tonight.
“I was crushed the day I resigned, but today was sweet,” she says.
For those who hated the “Americanism” of the super Saturday moniker, some other options for you:
1 by election = So So Saturday 2 = Special Saturday3 = Sock It To Me Saturday4 = Splendid Saturday 5 = #SuperSaturday
Ben Smee at Caboolture backs up what Labor is telling us:
One Nation preferences in Longman flowing 65-35 in favour of LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg (as per the how-to-votes). That fact should settle any Labor nerves about the large number of pre-poll votes yet to be counted.”
Georgina Downer says she has called Rebekha Sharkie and has congratulated her on her win and that she “absolutely respects” the decision Mayo has made.
Liberal insiders have said that Downer’s campaign was a two-prong approach, with the aim being a win at the next general election.
But with Sharkie having won with a 9.3% swing - and the Liberal party vote having dropped by just over 1% that is going to be even harder.
“No doubts here,” Party HQ is telling me.
And they would know. Call it.
Georgina Downer is about to give her concession speech
Longman update with 32 of the 40 booths counted
Susan Lamb – 42.23%
Trevor Ruthenberg – 26%
One Nation – 14.88%
You can see why Labor is confident. It is pretty close, and we might see some change with the postal votes (which usually go conservative) but it is looking good.
Labor is celebrating the best federal result it has had in Bribie since 2007.
The sparkling is popping.
I don’t think I have ever heard Christopher Pyne sound as flat and sad as he does right now on Sky.
Labor sources on the ground are telling me that they have won all the Bribie booths, which is almost unprecedented for Labor in Longman.
That is pretty much game, set and match.
And on the swing – with Labor picking up another 4.47% and the LNP down almost 10% – Peter Dutton would be gone if that was replicated in Dickson.
And in Braddon:
Empty seats galore at the @brettwhiteley60 by-election party in #braddon just as many media as Liberal Party faithful @SBSNews pic.twitter.com/J0fTyWyOM5
Empty seats galore at the @brettwhiteley60 by-election party in #braddon just as many media as Liberal Party faithful @SBSNews pic.twitter.com/J0fTyWyOM5
Meanwhile, in Mayo
Meanwhile, in Mayo:
Rebekha Sharkie supporters serenade the successful candidate in Mount Barker #ausvotes #mayovotes pic.twitter.com/OKNTlMT984
Rebekha Sharkie supporters serenade the successful candidate in Mount Barker #ausvotes #mayovotes pic.twitter.com/OKNTlMT984
For anyone with a hankering to know - polls have just closed in WA.
For anyone with a hankering to know – polls have just closed in WA.
Now, back to that commentary.
We have heard a lot (A LOT) about what these results would mean for Bill Shorten. Malcolm Turnbull a few weeks ago made it clear that Longman and Braddon was a contest between himself and the opposition leader.
Turnbull hosed down that in the last couple of weeks - which was notable.
But now that Shorten and Labor’s strategy has paid off - with dividends - attention is going to turn to Turnbull and what it means for his leadership future.
Tony Abbott must be the happiest man in Australia right now.
There is no other way to look at Longman - where Mal Brough once won 51% of the primary vote - and to where the LNP is sitting now - at around 25% without repercussions. And I say that, pointing you to what happened in 2016, with Wyatt Roy and the billboard.
Particularly, if you are Peter Dutton. His seat is right next door, has a similar constituency and is very much on the radar.
Given how powerful Dutton is in this governemnt and the party room - there are some very, very uncomfortable conversations in Turnbull’s future.
Back at the Caboolture RSL and Ben Smee says:
“We’er hearing here that Labor thinks it has won the remaining booths - Ningi, Kallangur, Caboolture East.”
Which would just about call it.
Look, it is looking like Susan Lamb has won Longman, which means commentary at the parties is turning to what went wrong for the government - and Labor just keeps pointing to Malcolm Turnbull.
“There has been a big swing against the LNP here, and he can’t disown that,” a lead campaigner is telling me.
It is not enough that they are claiming victory, as yet.
But they are feeling good. Really, really good.
He is basing that on his magic formula, and I can’t argue with that.
We’ve been heading down that path - but I just want to see a few more booths before I can say for sure.
So, on the Bribie booths we have been looking at, we have some figures from the Woorim booth (one of the bigger ones)
Of the 580 votes there, Susan Lamb has won 238 - 305 with preferences and Trevor Ruthernberg has 192 - 244 with preferences.
That’s good news for Labor.
And so far - with just over 30% of the vote counted in Longman - that campaign is paying off.
The LNP is looking at a 9.3% drop.
That gives Susan Lamb a path to victory. It would take a pretty big upset at this time for Labor to lose this.
We need to wait for the remaining booths to fill in the details, but the big picture is very clear - all three of the MPs who faced serious challenges have been re-elected, seemingly with increased majorities.
Labor’s Justine Keay is up 0.3% off 48/71 in Braddon, whole her colleague Susan Lamb is up 3.2% off 15/40 booths in Longman.Sharkie is up 3% after 26/76 booths in Mayo.
There will be time later to discuss the polls in these three seats. The repeated polls in Mayo did a decent job of predicting a strong vote for Sharkie, but overestimated the LNP vote in Longman.
More from Labor sources in Longman:
“I don’t think the Liberals saw the field campaign coming - we would have done more doorknocking today, then the LNP would have done all campaign”.
And those figures?
73,180 phone calls
35,870 door knocks
I’m being told that’s the biggest field effort for a single seat, ever. They also think today will be the biggest day campaign ever, with more than 1000 calls and doorknocks today, alone.
Labor has always had a better ground campaign. It’s why they were pissed when six pre-polling booths were opened up - it took volunteers from the ground and sent them to the booths.
But still. I can think of a few people in Labor HQ - and United Voice - who won’t be paying for a drink for a while.
Labor increasingly confident in Longman.
The Susan Lamb campaign party has just heard about swings to Labor on Bribie Island, an LNP stronghold with a large community of retirees.
Labor says they’ve won two Bribie Island booths, Bellara and Bongaree.
“The message to Malcolm Turnbull is you can’t scare the pensioners,” rings out over the loudspeaker.
Followed by ... “Big Trev, you’re a big flop”.
Labor is feeling pretty good in Longman (not good enough to call it, but good) and they are pointing to their research showing “Malcolm Turnbull should not have campaigned here”
“He came here over eight weeks (five times) and we got 10 points on the back of that),” one source is saying.
