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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/jul/28/super-saturday-byelections-longman-braddon-labor-shorten-mayo-fremantle-perth-politics-live
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| Shorten celebrates as Labor wins back Longman, Braddon, Perth and Fremantle in byelections – as it happened | Shorten celebrates as Labor wins back Longman, Braddon, Perth and Fremantle in byelections – as it happened |
| (4 months later) | |
| We end the night with nothing having changed in the parliament – which means everything has. | We end the night with nothing having changed in the parliament – which means everything has. |
| For the government. | For the government. |
| Labor campaigners are telling me that the result is “way better than expected” and these are the same people who over the last few weeks have been telling me how close it was going to be. Part of the reason these byelections were so difficult to call is because the parties themselves didn’t know how it would go – and that’s because polling single seats is a notoriously difficult job. | Labor campaigners are telling me that the result is “way better than expected” and these are the same people who over the last few weeks have been telling me how close it was going to be. Part of the reason these byelections were so difficult to call is because the parties themselves didn’t know how it would go – and that’s because polling single seats is a notoriously difficult job. |
| And that’s not a new opinion I’ve latched on to. It is literally in my first post. I didn’t get to Braddon, but I was in Longman and I spoke to hundreds of people over those 10 days and at that stage, no one knew where they would put their vote. | And that’s not a new opinion I’ve latched on to. It is literally in my first post. I didn’t get to Braddon, but I was in Longman and I spoke to hundreds of people over those 10 days and at that stage, no one knew where they would put their vote. |
| Then Pauline Hanson exited the campaign. | Then Pauline Hanson exited the campaign. |
| Labor blitzed Longman with the biggest ground campaign ever seen. | Labor blitzed Longman with the biggest ground campaign ever seen. |
| Trevor Ruthenberg’s medal “mix up” was made public. | Trevor Ruthenberg’s medal “mix up” was made public. |
| Malcolm Turnbull was yelled at by boomers in what is usually a core constituency of the Liberals in Longman. | Malcolm Turnbull was yelled at by boomers in what is usually a core constituency of the Liberals in Longman. |
| Eric Abetz’s intervention in Braddon, by highlighting the independent Craig Garland’s former charges backfired spectacularly | Eric Abetz’s intervention in Braddon, by highlighting the independent Craig Garland’s former charges backfired spectacularly |
| Labor’s message of protecting health services, banning big business tax cuts for the banks and giving bigger tax breaks to low and middle class income earners took hold. | Labor’s message of protecting health services, banning big business tax cuts for the banks and giving bigger tax breaks to low and middle class income earners took hold. |
| And when you get right down to it, Bill Shorten is a better on-the-ground campaigner than Malcolm Turnbull. That makes sense – Shorten’s career has been in campaigning. Turnbull’s has been in talking. | And when you get right down to it, Bill Shorten is a better on-the-ground campaigner than Malcolm Turnbull. That makes sense – Shorten’s career has been in campaigning. Turnbull’s has been in talking. |
| So a byelection campaign that had Labor on the hop – it was their seats they were defending, it was their national conference which was rescheduled, it was all hands on deck when usually those hands get a break – has ended with the government nervously looking at the results, particularly in Queensland and wondering where to from here. | So a byelection campaign that had Labor on the hop – it was their seats they were defending, it was their national conference which was rescheduled, it was all hands on deck when usually those hands get a break – has ended with the government nervously looking at the results, particularly in Queensland and wondering where to from here. |
| I can’t answer that, either for you, or for them. And I don’t expect we will get those answers in the immediate future. Instead, I can promise you that we will be back, when parliament resumes on 13 August to keep you up to date with Politics Live, and of course, there you’ll find everything that happens outside the sitting weeks in the Australian politics section of the Guardian. | I can’t answer that, either for you, or for them. And I don’t expect we will get those answers in the immediate future. Instead, I can promise you that we will be back, when parliament resumes on 13 August to keep you up to date with Politics Live, and of course, there you’ll find everything that happens outside the sitting weeks in the Australian politics section of the Guardian. |
| So for now, I will bid you a goodnight – thank you to the Guardian’s brain trust, especially to Ben Smee, Katharine Murphy and Ben Raue, and to all those behind the scenes who make sure this little ship stays upright on the internet. | So for now, I will bid you a goodnight – thank you to the Guardian’s brain trust, especially to Ben Smee, Katharine Murphy and Ben Raue, and to all those behind the scenes who make sure this little ship stays upright on the internet. |
| And as always, the biggest thank you, to you for reading. It was a bit crazy tonight, so I haven’t had a chance to look at the messages or the comments, but I promise to go through them. | And as always, the biggest thank you, to you for reading. It was a bit crazy tonight, so I haven’t had a chance to look at the messages or the comments, but I promise to go through them. |
| Politics Live will be back on 13 August, where Mike Bowers will also be back with you. But in the meantime – take care of you. | Politics Live will be back on 13 August, where Mike Bowers will also be back with you. But in the meantime – take care of you. |
| And on One Nation’s vote, having a look at how they performed at the 2017 state election in the state electorates that take in Longman, we can see this: | And on One Nation’s vote, having a look at how they performed at the 2017 state election in the state electorates that take in Longman, we can see this: |
| PUMICESTONE: 23.3% | PUMICESTONE: 23.3% |
| MORAYFIELD: 25.2% | MORAYFIELD: 25.2% |
| GLASS HOUSE: 27.1% | GLASS HOUSE: 27.1% |
| KURWONGBA: 22.6% | KURWONGBA: 22.6% |
| AVERAGE: 23.9% | AVERAGE: 23.9% |
| So while a 15% result is good for a minor party – it is a drop from the support they saw in November last year. | So while a 15% result is good for a minor party – it is a drop from the support they saw in November last year. |
| Just before we wrap up, and because I know these words will be important in the coming weeks, here are the times we’ve found where Malcolm Turnbull made the byelections a contest between himself and Bill Shorten: | Just before we wrap up, and because I know these words will be important in the coming weeks, here are the times we’ve found where Malcolm Turnbull made the byelections a contest between himself and Bill Shorten: |
| This was back in May | This was back in May |
| NEIL MITCHELL: | NEIL MITCHELL: |
| Okay. Do you think these Super Saturday by elections is a test for Bill Shorten’s leadership? | Okay. Do you think these Super Saturday by elections is a test for Bill Shorten’s leadership? |
| PRIME MINISTER: | PRIME MINISTER: |
| Well I mean every election is a test for both leaders. | Well I mean every election is a test for both leaders. |
| NEIL MITCHELL: | NEIL MITCHELL: |
| So it is for you as well? | So it is for you as well? |
| PRIME MINISTER: | PRIME MINISTER: |
| Well yes it is. But I mean I just want to be realistic about this. You know the last time the government won a by election seat from an opposition in a by election was 1911, so. | Well yes it is. But I mean I just want to be realistic about this. You know the last time the government won a by election seat from an opposition in a by election was 1911, so. |
| NEIL MITCHELL: | NEIL MITCHELL: |
| So you’re not expecting to win any? | So you’re not expecting to win any? |
| PRIME MINISTER: | PRIME MINISTER: |
| Well we always try to win. We campaign hard to win. But you’ve got to be realistic about your expectations. | Well we always try to win. We campaign hard to win. But you’ve got to be realistic about your expectations. |
| And the quote from my story on July 12 came from this interview: | And the quote from my story on July 12 came from this interview: |
| PRIME MINISTER: And the people of Longman are going to have a choice soon in the by-election and they’ll have the opportunity to cast their judgment on the rolled gold guarantees that Bill Shorten has given, whether it’s about Susan Lamb’s citizenship, or whether it’s about tax. | PRIME MINISTER: And the people of Longman are going to have a choice soon in the by-election and they’ll have the opportunity to cast their judgment on the rolled gold guarantees that Bill Shorten has given, whether it’s about Susan Lamb’s citizenship, or whether it’s about tax. |
| He’s had just about every position on tax, being in favour of cutting company tax when he was in government, and now he wants to put it up. | He’s had just about every position on tax, being in favour of cutting company tax when he was in government, and now he wants to put it up. |
| They’ll have the opportunity to vote and give their opinion on the strength of the economy and the need to have strong, Liberal National Government to deliver that economic leadership that is delivering the strong growth in jobs that we’ve seen, last year, 2017, alone - 415,000 jobs created, strongest jobs growth in our country’s history. | They’ll have the opportunity to vote and give their opinion on the strength of the economy and the need to have strong, Liberal National Government to deliver that economic leadership that is delivering the strong growth in jobs that we’ve seen, last year, 2017, alone - 415,000 jobs created, strongest jobs growth in our country’s history. |
| REBECCA LEVINGSTON: So if the Labor voters are about Bill Shorten, are those in the LNP voting for Malcolm Turnbull? | REBECCA LEVINGSTON: So if the Labor voters are about Bill Shorten, are those in the LNP voting for Malcolm Turnbull? |
| PRIME MINISTER: Of course. The head-up, the contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader. | PRIME MINISTER: Of course. The head-up, the contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader. |
| I am going to let Murph wrap this up for us, because I am mostly a broken human right now: | I am going to let Murph wrap this up for us, because I am mostly a broken human right now: |
| From Katharine Murphy’s report: | From Katharine Murphy’s report: |
| Labor has emerged victorious in critical byelection contests in Tasmania and Queensland in a significant fillip for the federal leader Bill Shorten, boosting its primary vote in Longman and harvesting the lions share of preferences in Braddon. | Labor has emerged victorious in critical byelection contests in Tasmania and Queensland in a significant fillip for the federal leader Bill Shorten, boosting its primary vote in Longman and harvesting the lions share of preferences in Braddon. |
| After gruelling three-month campaigns triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual citizenship crisis, Labor held crucial terrain in two key marginal seats and is set to return two MPs to Canberra in the west coast contests – a clean sweep, shoring up its foundations for the next federal election. | After gruelling three-month campaigns triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual citizenship crisis, Labor held crucial terrain in two key marginal seats and is set to return two MPs to Canberra in the west coast contests – a clean sweep, shoring up its foundations for the next federal election. |
| The Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie also held out a challenge from the Liberal party’s star recruit Georgina Downer, whose father, a former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the South Australian electorate from 1984 to 2008. | The Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie also held out a challenge from the Liberal party’s star recruit Georgina Downer, whose father, a former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the South Australian electorate from 1984 to 2008. |
| Super Saturday elections: Shorten passes test as Labor wins 'four from four' | |
| Sharkie – a popular and hardworking minor party representative – declared her emphatic victory in the seat of Mayo was attributable to “people power”. | Sharkie – a popular and hardworking minor party representative – declared her emphatic victory in the seat of Mayo was attributable to “people power”. |
| The Turnbull government had been hopeful of triggering an upset in either Longman or Braddon in the super Saturday contests. No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%. | The Turnbull government had been hopeful of triggering an upset in either Longman or Braddon in the super Saturday contests. No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%. |
| Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July to Brisbane ABC radio: | Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July to Brisbane ABC radio: |
| It’s a test of the parties, but it’s really about the people of Longman deciding whether they want to vote for Bill Shorten and his higher taxes, fewer jobs, lower wages and less economic growth,” Turnbull said. | It’s a test of the parties, but it’s really about the people of Longman deciding whether they want to vote for Bill Shorten and his higher taxes, fewer jobs, lower wages and less economic growth,” Turnbull said. |
| “The … contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader.” | “The … contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader.” |
| You would have already made this leap – but messages from Liberal MPs are rolling through pointing out Malcolm Turnbull’s absence. | You would have already made this leap – but messages from Liberal MPs are rolling through pointing out Malcolm Turnbull’s absence. |
| “Even when Shorten lost, he was there, helping to spin it as victory. We should have our leader up there,” one reads. | “Even when Shorten lost, he was there, helping to spin it as victory. We should have our leader up there,” one reads. |
| Others are pointing out what we’ve already spoken about – how the early election talk is being hit on the head, at least within Liberal WhatsApp groups (I assume). | Others are pointing out what we’ve already spoken about – how the early election talk is being hit on the head, at least within Liberal WhatsApp groups (I assume). |
| “That confidence, that momentum … it’s taken a hit,” one Liberal MP tells me. | “That confidence, that momentum … it’s taken a hit,” one Liberal MP tells me. |
| And yes, I know you don’t always like it when I get these messages, but it’s my job to talk to everyone and let you know the feeling from within the parties. | And yes, I know you don’t always like it when I get these messages, but it’s my job to talk to everyone and let you know the feeling from within the parties. |
| It may be the hour, it may be the lack of days off, but lols at Trent Zimmerman denying the government has had a “miserable night” tonight. | It may be the hour, it may be the lack of days off, but lols at Trent Zimmerman denying the government has had a “miserable night” tonight. |
| No. I don’t think it is. If you look at what you normally expect to happen in circumstances such as this, the government’s done very well. We’ve gone from a situation in Bennelong where we had a 5% swing to seeing tonight swings in the two head-to-head Liberal-Labor seats of a positive swing to the government in one, and an average swing against the government in the other. So, I think that if the opposition had opinion hoping to get momentum out of this, they have failed in that respective | No. I don’t think it is. If you look at what you normally expect to happen in circumstances such as this, the government’s done very well. We’ve gone from a situation in Bennelong where we had a 5% swing to seeing tonight swings in the two head-to-head Liberal-Labor seats of a positive swing to the government in one, and an average swing against the government in the other. So, I think that if the opposition had opinion hoping to get momentum out of this, they have failed in that respective |
| Yes, he has to put a positive spin on it. BUT COME ON. | Yes, he has to put a positive spin on it. BUT COME ON. |
| Justine has taken the stage and is also promising to fight for her community. | Justine has taken the stage and is also promising to fight for her community. |
| “I will fight for you today, I will fight for you tomorrow, and I’ll fight for you as long as you will have me. | “I will fight for you today, I will fight for you tomorrow, and I’ll fight for you as long as you will have me. |
| “... And I will take this fight to the next general election” | “... And I will take this fight to the next general election” |
| Longman is going to be the contest we all look at over the next few days, despite how much the Libs in my messages streams want to tell me it’s “ridiculous we are celebrating Labor winning back their own seats in byelections”. | Longman is going to be the contest we all look at over the next few days, despite how much the Libs in my messages streams want to tell me it’s “ridiculous we are celebrating Labor winning back their own seats in byelections”. |
| (Yes, I am pointing them back to the celebrations in New England and Bennelong, calm down.) | (Yes, I am pointing them back to the celebrations in New England and Bennelong, calm down.) |
| But with 33 of the 40 booths counted in Longman the figures are just getting more and more grim for the government: | But with 33 of the 40 booths counted in Longman the figures are just getting more and more grim for the government: |
| Susan Lamb – 41.66% a swing of 4.34% to Labor | Susan Lamb – 41.66% a swing of 4.34% to Labor |
| Trevor Ruthernberg – 26.19% a 10.13% swing against the LNP | Trevor Ruthernberg – 26.19% a 10.13% swing against the LNP |
| Matthew Stephens and 50 Pauline Hanson cardboard cutouts – 15.24% – up 6.08% from the last election. | Matthew Stephens and 50 Pauline Hanson cardboard cutouts – 15.24% – up 6.08% from the last election. |
| For anyone still wondering – Labor has won both Perth and Fremantle. | For anyone still wondering – Labor has won both Perth and Fremantle. |
| I could tell you the numbers, but there was no question about these contests. | I could tell you the numbers, but there was no question about these contests. |
| Over at Big Trev’s party: | Over at Big Trev’s party: |
| Actually, Brett Whiteley wasn’t conceding in Braddon: | Actually, Brett Whiteley wasn’t conceding in Braddon: |
| “This was a contest like climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen. | “This was a contest like climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen. |
| “And right now the summit is going to be hard to make from here. But we’re close. But maybe not close enough. So we do need to wait to all the votes are counted.” | “And right now the summit is going to be hard to make from here. But we’re close. But maybe not close enough. So we do need to wait to all the votes are counted.” |
| Here’s what it looks like in Longman right now: | Here’s what it looks like in Longman right now: |
| And you can expect to see this replayed again and again and again: | And you can expect to see this replayed again and again and again: |
| Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July said #SuperSaturday byelections were a referendum on leadership. Bit awks now. pic.twitter.com/dk3j8uJwO0 | Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July said #SuperSaturday byelections were a referendum on leadership. Bit awks now. pic.twitter.com/dk3j8uJwO0 |