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Super Saturday elections: Shorten celebrates ‘four from four’ as Labor wins back Longman – politics live Super Saturday elections: Shorten celebrates as Labor wins back Longman, Braddon, Perth and Fremantle – politics live
(35 minutes later)
And on One Nation’s vote, having a look at how they performed at the 2017 state election in the state electorates that take in Longman, we can see this:
PUMICESTONE: 23.3%
MORAYFIELD: 25.2%
GLASS HOUSE: 27.1%
KURWONGBA: 22.6%
AVERAGE: 23.9%
So while a 15% result is good for a minor party – it is a drop from the support they saw in November last year.
Just before we wrap up, and because I know these words will be important in the coming weeks, here are the times we’ve found where Malcolm Turnbull made the byelections a contest between himself and Bill Shorten:
This was back in May
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay. Do you think these Super Saturday by elections is a test for Bill Shorten’s leadership?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I mean every election is a test for both leaders.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So it is for you as well?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well yes it is. But I mean I just want to be realistic about this. You know the last time the government won a by election seat from an opposition in a by election was 1911, so.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So you’re not expecting to win any?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well we always try to win. We campaign hard to win. But you’ve got to be realistic about your expectations.
And the quote from my story on July 12 came from this interview:
PRIME MINISTER: And the people of Longman are going to have a choice soon in the by-election and they’ll have the opportunity to cast their judgment on the rolled gold guarantees that Bill Shorten has given, whether it’s about Susan Lamb’s citizenship, or whether it’s about tax.
He’s had just about every position on tax, being in favour of cutting company tax when he was in government, and now he wants to put it up.
They’ll have the opportunity to vote and give their opinion on the strength of the economy and the need to have strong, Liberal National Government to deliver that economic leadership that is delivering the strong growth in jobs that we’ve seen, last year, 2017, alone - 415,000 jobs created, strongest jobs growth in our country’s history.
REBECCA LEVINGSTON: So if the Labor voters are about Bill Shorten, are those in the LNP voting for Malcolm Turnbull?
PRIME MINISTER: Of course. The head-up, the contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.
I am going to let Murph wrap this up for us, because I am mostly a broken human right now:
From Katharine Murphy’s report:
Labor has emerged victorious in critical byelection contests in Tasmania and Queensland in a significant fillip for the federal leader Bill Shorten, boosting its primary vote in Longman and harvesting the lions share of preferences in Braddon.
After gruelling three-month campaigns triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual citizenship crisis, Labor held crucial terrain in two key marginal seats and is set to return two MPs to Canberra in the west coast contests – a clean sweep, shoring up its foundations for the next federal election.
The Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie also held out a challenge from the Liberal party’s star recruit Georgina Downer, whose father, a former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the South Australian electorate from 1984 to 2008.
Sharkie – a popular and hardworking minor party representative – declared her emphatic victory in the seat of Mayo was attributable to “people power”.
The Turnbull government had been hopeful of triggering an upset in either Longman or Braddon in the super Saturday contests. No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%.
Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July to Brisbane ABC radio:
It’s a test of the parties, but it’s really about the people of Longman deciding whether they want to vote for Bill Shorten and his higher taxes, fewer jobs, lower wages and less economic growth,” Turnbull said.
“The … contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader.”
You would have already made this leap – but messages from Liberal MPs are rolling through pointing out Malcolm Turnbull’s absence.You would have already made this leap – but messages from Liberal MPs are rolling through pointing out Malcolm Turnbull’s absence.
“Even when Shorten lost, he was there, helping to spin it as victory. We should have our leader up there,” one reads.“Even when Shorten lost, he was there, helping to spin it as victory. We should have our leader up there,” one reads.
Others are pointing out what we’ve already spoken about – how the early election talk is being hit on the head, at least within Liberal WhatsApp groups (I assume).Others are pointing out what we’ve already spoken about – how the early election talk is being hit on the head, at least within Liberal WhatsApp groups (I assume).
“That confidence, that momentum … it’s taken a hit,” one Liberal MP tells me.“That confidence, that momentum … it’s taken a hit,” one Liberal MP tells me.
And yes, I know you don’t always like it when I get these messages, but it’s my job to talk to everyone and let you know the feeling from within the parties.And yes, I know you don’t always like it when I get these messages, but it’s my job to talk to everyone and let you know the feeling from within the parties.
It may be the hour, it may be the lack of days off, but lols at Trent Zimmerman denying the government has had a “miserable night” tonight.It may be the hour, it may be the lack of days off, but lols at Trent Zimmerman denying the government has had a “miserable night” tonight.
No. I don’t think it is. If you look at what you normally expect to happen in circumstances such as this, the government’s done very well. We’ve gone from a situation in Bennelong where we had a 5% swing to seeing tonight swings in the two head-to-head Liberal-Labor seats of a positive swing to the government in one, and an average swing against the government in the other. So, I think that if the opposition had opinion hoping to get momentum out of this, they have failed in that respectiveNo. I don’t think it is. If you look at what you normally expect to happen in circumstances such as this, the government’s done very well. We’ve gone from a situation in Bennelong where we had a 5% swing to seeing tonight swings in the two head-to-head Liberal-Labor seats of a positive swing to the government in one, and an average swing against the government in the other. So, I think that if the opposition had opinion hoping to get momentum out of this, they have failed in that respective
Yes, he has to put a positive spin on it. BUT COME ON.Yes, he has to put a positive spin on it. BUT COME ON.
Justine has taken the stage and is also promising to fight for her community.Justine has taken the stage and is also promising to fight for her community.
“I will fight for you today, I will fight for you tomorrow, and I’ll fight for you as long as you will have me.“I will fight for you today, I will fight for you tomorrow, and I’ll fight for you as long as you will have me.
“... And I will take this fight to the next general election”“... And I will take this fight to the next general election”
Longman is going to be the contest we all look at over the next few days, despite how much the Libs in my messages streams want to tell me it’s “ridiculous we are celebrating Labor winning back their own seats in byelections”.Longman is going to be the contest we all look at over the next few days, despite how much the Libs in my messages streams want to tell me it’s “ridiculous we are celebrating Labor winning back their own seats in byelections”.
(Yes, I am pointing them back to the celebrations in New England and Bennelong, calm down.)(Yes, I am pointing them back to the celebrations in New England and Bennelong, calm down.)
But with 33 of the 40 booths counted in Longman the figures are just getting more and more grim for the government:But with 33 of the 40 booths counted in Longman the figures are just getting more and more grim for the government:
Susan Lamb – 41.66% a swing of 4.34% to LaborSusan Lamb – 41.66% a swing of 4.34% to Labor
Trevor Ruthernberg – 26.19% a 10.13% swing against the LNPTrevor Ruthernberg – 26.19% a 10.13% swing against the LNP
Matthew Stephens and 50 Pauline Hanson cardboard cutouts – 15.24% – up 6.08% from the last election.Matthew Stephens and 50 Pauline Hanson cardboard cutouts – 15.24% – up 6.08% from the last election.
For anyone still wondering – Labor has won both Perth and Fremantle.For anyone still wondering – Labor has won both Perth and Fremantle.
I could tell you the numbers, but there was no question about these contests.I could tell you the numbers, but there was no question about these contests.
Over at Big Trev’s party:Over at Big Trev’s party:
Actually, Brett Whiteley wasn’t conceding in Braddon:Actually, Brett Whiteley wasn’t conceding in Braddon:
“This was a contest like climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen.“This was a contest like climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen.
“And right now the summit is going to be hard to make from here. But we’re close. But maybe not close enough. So we do need to wait to all the votes are counted.”“And right now the summit is going to be hard to make from here. But we’re close. But maybe not close enough. So we do need to wait to all the votes are counted.”
Here’s what it looks like in Longman right now:Here’s what it looks like in Longman right now:
And you can expect to see this replayed again and again and again:And you can expect to see this replayed again and again and again:
Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July said #SuperSaturday byelections were a referendum on leadership. Bit awks now. pic.twitter.com/dk3j8uJwO0Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July said #SuperSaturday byelections were a referendum on leadership. Bit awks now. pic.twitter.com/dk3j8uJwO0
Ladies and gentlemen, tonight means Malcolm Turnbull will most likely get his wish – we won’t be heading to a general election until next year. Probably late April early May.
Susan Lamb has taken the stage and she says if she sounds exhausted, it is because she is.
And I don’t blame her – head to the inside Labor’s Longman ground campaign post to see just what this 10-week was like for her.
She thanks Trevor Ruthenberg for “a very clean contest” and while the crowd is skeptical, she means it.
From the bottom of my heart, I want to thank each and every single one of you that are here tonight. You know, trust me, I don’t take this lightly at all. I promise I will stand up for you, just like I did when I first held the seat.”
More Bill Shorten:
So, friends, can I say that tonight is another signpost into the destination that matters for Australians. A Labor government after the next general election.
“… Tonight, though, this next bit of advice is superflous, we should celebrate and tomorrow too.
“But I do thank the voters in all of the electorates because I promised them for the confidence they’ve displayed in us, for our mighty movement, we’ll be back to work straight after our celebrations, back to the work that really matters.
“I promise the Australian people, we will continue the work of putting together a policy agenda for the next national Labor government, a program which will rewin the confidence and the support of working class and middle-class Australians.
“To the people who go to work everyday in small businesses, the farmers and pensioners, we promise to put fairness back into the centre of national life and to fight inequality all the way to the next election.”
Bill Shorten:
Actually, what a super Saturday night it is … we’ve had everything thrown at us in the last 10 weeks. We’ve come through it in pretty good shape, I think. It’s been a tough campaign, it’s had ups and downs. But tonight we’ve had two great wins already and I’m hearing pretty good things from Western Australia as well. Four from four.
You know one thing about the Labor party which our critics and enemies have underestimated all the time, when our critics write us off in the media, when our opponents write us down and write off our vision for Australia, you can always count upon the rank and file of the Labor movement, trade unionists and ALP members.
You can count on them to put your shoulder to the wheel. The truth about politics is, it isn’t how you’re going when you’re going well, it’s when you’ve got a hard fight ahead of you, when you get up and dust yourself up and you go hard. That is what I think about the rank and file of our mighty Labor movement.”
“What a great night for the Labor party, what a great night for Labor women candidates” Bill Shorten says.
At the same time, Brett Whiteley is conceding in Braddon.
Ben Smee, who is holding the fort for us on the ground in Longman, says Ali France will be front and centre at this victory lap:
A not so subtle message to Peter Dutton, me thinks,” he says.
Bill Shorten has arrived at Caboolture and the crowd is going nuts
“Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill,” they are chanting.
Trevor Ruthenberg is acknowledging the “medal mix up”.
I think most Australians know my service history. (LAUGHTER) I hold the men and women of the ADF and returned servicemen in the highest esteem and I would never knowingly or deliberately do anything to offend them. (APPLAUSE) ... The support and understanding I received from local RSLs, veterans and serving personnel in that difficult week last week was truly, greatly appreciated,” he said.
“And also I’d like to thank the prime minister. I have witnessed and been the beneficiary of all the character traits you would hope for in a prime minister. He truly cares about our community. He’s deeply engaged with what happens locally and he’s genuinely interested in the lives and work of the people in our community
“… I made an embarrassing mistake and he not only stood by me, he stood up for me. Let me tell you, he’s standing up for people in our area.”
Malcolm Turnbull is not there. But Ruthenberg, getting emotional, says he takes responsibility for the result.
“Thank you, that was a warm welcome, I think I’ll remember that one for a while,” Trevor Ruthenberg says, adding that he has called Susan Lamb and congratulated her on her win.
“This is a strange election in that while I have lost, the community will still benefit from the commitments I have been able to secure from the prime minister and his team of ministers and for that, I will be forever grateful.
“Listen, work, deliver – we did all three.”
Susan Lamb has won the Longman by-election! Congratulations to Susan for a hard-fought win. The residents of Longman have chosen money for hospitals not banks. We're sending Susan to Canberra to hold Turnbull to account, and fight the LNP's billions in handouts to the banks. pic.twitter.com/tIaz3LMW51