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Super Saturday elections: Labor says ‘no doubts’ it has won Longman as Downer concedes in Mayo – politics live Super Saturday elections: LNP concedes Longman to Labor's Susan Lamb – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Bill Shorten and Susan Lamb are headed to the Caboolture RSL - where they will officially call Longman and Braddon for Labor. More Bill Shorten:
You thought Shorten was happy when Kristina Keneally ate into John Alexander’s vote in Bennelong - just wait until you see him tonight. So, friends, can I say that tonight is another sign post into the destination that matters for Australians. A Labor government after the next general election.
...Tonight, though, this next bit of advice is superflous, we should celebrate and tomorrow too.
“But I do thank the voters in all of the electorates because I promised them for the confidence they’ve displayed in us, for our mighty movement, we’ll be back to work straight after our celebrations, back to the work that really matters.
I promise the Australian people, we will continue the work of putting together a policy agenda for the next national Labor government, a program which will rewin the confidence and the support of working class and middle-class Australians.
To the people who go to work everyday in small businesses, the farmers and pensioners, we promise to put fairness back into the centre of national life and to fight inequality all the way to the next election.
Bill Shorten:
Actually, what a super Saturday night it is … we’ve had everything thrown at us in the last 10 weeks. We’ve come through it in pretty good shape, I think. It’s been a tough campaign, it’s had ups and downs. But tonight we’ve had two great wins already and I’m hearing pretty good things from Western Australia as well. Four from four.
You know one thing about the Labor party which our critics and enemies have underestimated all the time, when our critics write us off in the media, when our opponents write us down and write off our vision for Australia, you can always count upon the rank and file of the Labor movement, trade unionists and ALP members.
You can count on them to put your shoulder to the wheel. The truth about politics is, it isn’t how you’re going when you’re going well, it’s when you’ve got a hard fight ahead of you, when you get up and dust yourself up and you go hard. That is what I think about the rank and file of our mighty Labor movement.”
“What a great night for the Labor party, what a great night for Labor women candidates” Bill Shorten says.
At the same time, Brett Whiteley is conceding in Braddon.
Ben Smee, who is holding the fort for us on the ground in Longman, says Ali France will be front and centre at this victory lap:
A not so subtle message to Peter Dutton, me thinks,” he says.
Bill Shorten has arrived at Caboolture and the crowd is going nuts
“Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill,” they are chanting.
Trevor Ruthenberg is acknowledging the “medal mix up”.
I think most Australians know my service history. (LAUGHTER) I hold the men and women of the ADF and returned servicemen in the highest esteem and I would never knowingly or deliberately do anything to offend them. (APPLAUSE) ... The support and understanding I received from local RSLs, veterans and serving personnel in that difficult week last week was truly, greatly appreciated,” he said.
“And also I’d like to thank the prime minister. I have witnessed and been the beneficiary of all the character traits you would hope for in a prime minister. He truly cares about our community. He’s deeply engaged with what happens locally and he’s genuinely interested in the lives and work of the people in our community
“… I made an embarrassing mistake and he not only stood by me, he stood up for me. Let me tell you, he’s standing up for people in our area.”
Malcolm Turnbull is not there. But Ruthenberg, getting emotional, says he takes responsibility for the result.
“Thank you, that was a warm welcome, I think I’ll remember that one for a while,” Trevor Ruthenberg says, adding that he has called Susan Lamb and congratulated her on her win.
“This is a strange election in that while I have lost, the community will still benefit from the commitments I have been able to secure from the prime minister and his team of ministers and for that, I will be forever grateful.
“Listen, work, deliver – we did all three.”
Susan Lamb has won the Longman by-election! Congratulations to Susan for a hard-fought win. The residents of Longman have chosen money for hospitals not banks. We're sending Susan to Canberra to hold Turnbull to account, and fight the LNP's billions in handouts to the banks. pic.twitter.com/tIaz3LMW51
‘Big Trev’ is up at Longman, next to James McGrath and is conceding the seat to Labor.
So what are you going to hear about in the next few days?
Single seat polls are bupkis
Labor’s policy differences have momentum
Leadership talk from the Anthony Albanese camp will be given a bit of a shush
Malcolm Turnbull will be under pressure
Class warfare works
Tony Abbott and co will be on the attack
You’ll also hear about how hard it is for government’s to win opposition seats at byelections (given the last time was in 1920)
That the byelection swing was contained to normal swings
That Labor and the unions outspent the government and that made it almost impossible.
The problem with those last three points (which are already starting to emerge from conservative camps) is that for the past couple of weeks, all we have heard from the government on the record and off, is how much pressure Shorten was under, how they were quietly confident, and how despite Labor’s “desperate” spend, they were losing.
Well, the night has spoken for itself.
Again, yup
Labor also about to call Braddon I'm told @AmyRemeikis #SuperSaturday #auspol
My phone is going absolutely nuts.
I know that you sometimes get sick about how much I harp on about Queensland, but the main reason is because it is the state to win at the next election: win Queensland and you win government. Or, as Murray Watt is fond of saying, the path to Canberra runs through Queensland.
If you take Labor’s primary result – which is about 42% at the moment – in Longman, and you apply that to the rest of the state, well, Bill Shorten will be sauntering in to the prime ministerial wing with a very comfortable majority.
And yes, swings are rarely uniform, but if Labor is on the move in Queensland (and they did just win the state election), then the Liberals are not going to have the greatest night sleep tonight.
Bill Shorten and Susan Lamb are headed to the Caboolture RSL, where they will officially call Longman and Braddon for Labor.
You thought Shorten was happy when Kristina Keneally ate into John Alexander’s vote in Bennelong – just wait until you see him tonight.
Smashed it, Susan! ♥️ #Longman #auspol #weloveourLamb @SusanLambALP pic.twitter.com/sS5jSnP4OeSmashed it, Susan! ♥️ #Longman #auspol #weloveourLamb @SusanLambALP pic.twitter.com/sS5jSnP4Oe
There are still eight booths to be counted … but the LNP vote just keeps dropping.There are still eight booths to be counted … but the LNP vote just keeps dropping.
Now down 10.09%Now down 10.09%
That sound you hear is Peter Dutton’s jaw clenching.That sound you hear is Peter Dutton’s jaw clenching.
YupYup
I'm told Labor is preparing to claim Longman @AmyRemeikis #SuperSaturday #auspolI'm told Labor is preparing to claim Longman @AmyRemeikis #SuperSaturday #auspol
Rebehka Sharkie has taken to the stage to give her victory speech:Rebehka Sharkie has taken to the stage to give her victory speech:
“It has been a marathon of a campaign, but we did this tonight, we did it, because of you,” she tells the room, before adding that you don’t need “huge wads of money” to win – that you need “people who are compassionate, people who care”, and that was proven tonight.“It has been a marathon of a campaign, but we did this tonight, we did it, because of you,” she tells the room, before adding that you don’t need “huge wads of money” to win – that you need “people who are compassionate, people who care”, and that was proven tonight.
“I was crushed the day I resigned, but today was sweet,” she says.“I was crushed the day I resigned, but today was sweet,” she says.
For those who hated the “Americanism” of the super Saturday moniker, some other options for you:For those who hated the “Americanism” of the super Saturday moniker, some other options for you:
1 by election = So So Saturday 2 = Special Saturday3 = Sock It To Me Saturday4 = Splendid Saturday 5 = #SuperSaturday1 by election = So So Saturday 2 = Special Saturday3 = Sock It To Me Saturday4 = Splendid Saturday 5 = #SuperSaturday
Ben Smee at Caboolture backs up what Labor is telling us:Ben Smee at Caboolture backs up what Labor is telling us:
One Nation preferences in Longman flowing 65-35 in favour of LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg (as per the how-to-votes). That fact should settle any Labor nerves about the large number of pre-poll votes yet to be counted.”One Nation preferences in Longman flowing 65-35 in favour of LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg (as per the how-to-votes). That fact should settle any Labor nerves about the large number of pre-poll votes yet to be counted.”
Georgina Downer says she has called Rebekha Sharkie and has congratulated her on her win and that she “absolutely respects” the decision Mayo has made.
Liberal insiders have said that Downer’s campaign was a two-prong approach, with the aim being a win at the next general election.
But with Sharkie having won with a 9.3% swing - and the Liberal party vote having dropped by just over 1% that is going to be even harder.
“No doubts here,” Party HQ is telling me.
And they would know. Call it.
Georgina Downer is about to give her concession speech
Longman update with 32 of the 40 booths counted
Susan Lamb – 42.23%
Trevor Ruthenberg – 26%
One Nation – 14.88%
You can see why Labor is confident. It is pretty close, and we might see some change with the postal votes (which usually go conservative) but it is looking good.
Labor is celebrating the best federal result it has had in Bribie since 2007.
The sparkling is popping.
I don’t think I have ever heard Christopher Pyne sound as flat and sad as he does right now on Sky.
Labor sources on the ground are telling me that they have won all the Bribie booths, which is almost unprecedented for Labor in Longman.
That is pretty much game, set and match.
And on the swing – with Labor picking up another 4.47% and the LNP down almost 10% – Peter Dutton would be gone if that was replicated in Dickson.
And in Braddon:
Empty seats galore at the @brettwhiteley60 by-election party in #braddon just as many media as Liberal Party faithful @SBSNews pic.twitter.com/J0fTyWyOM5
Meanwhile, in Mayo:
Rebekha Sharkie supporters serenade the successful candidate in Mount Barker #ausvotes #mayovotes pic.twitter.com/OKNTlMT984
For anyone with a hankering to know – polls have just closed in WA.