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Brexit: A guide to where we are Brexit: A guide to where we are
(5 days later)
Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with Brussels. Her cabinet backed it on Wednesday - but there have since been resignations. Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement and a political declaration about future relations between the UK and the EU. It hasn't been painless - two cabinet ministers and two junior ministers resigned while some Conservative MPs want to force a leadership contest. What happens now?
Two cabinet ministers, and two junior ministers, have resigned over the deal - while some Conservative MPs have attempted to force a leadership contest by writing letters of no confidence in the prime minister. What happens now?
The basics: A reminderThe basics: A reminder
The UK is due to leave the European Union at 23:00 GMT on Friday 29 March, 2019, after people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum.The UK is due to leave the European Union at 23:00 GMT on Friday 29 March, 2019, after people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum.
The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice.The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice.
Mrs May announced that a deal had been reached, and approved by cabinet, on Wednesday evening. But two cabinet ministers have since resigned. Mrs May announced that a deal had been reached, and approved by cabinet, last week. But two cabinet ministers have since resigned.
The deal would also need to get the stamp of approval from MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states.The deal would also need to get the stamp of approval from MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states.
What has been agreed between the UK and EU?What has been agreed between the UK and EU?
A draft agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union - including how much money will be paid to the EU, a 21-month transition period after Brexit day next March and commitments on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU. A draft 585-page agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union - including how much money will be paid to the EU, a 21-month transition period after Brexit day next March and commitments on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU.
It is not a trade deal - that will be hammered out during the transition period, if all goes as planned. They have also agreed to the text of a separate, shorter statement on the UK's future relationship with the EU, including the kind of trade deal the two sides want. It is not a trade deal - that will be hammered out during the transition period, if all goes as planned. They have also agreed to the text of a separate, shorter 26-page statement on the UK's future relationship with the EU, including the kind of trade deal the two sides want.
So what about a trade deal?So what about a trade deal?
Alongside the 585-page withdrawal agreement is a five-page "political declaration" setting out what future UK and EU relations will look like. Alongside the 585-page withdrawal agreement is that 26-page "political declaration" setting out what future UK and EU relations will look like. This is a broad outline and is not binding - the details of a trade deal will be worked out during the transition period with both the EU and UK hoping to have an agreement in place by December 2020.
This is a broad outline and is not binding - the details of a trade deal will be worked out during the transition period with both the EU and UK hoping to have an agreement in place by December 2020. The political declaration envisages "a free trade area and deep co-operation on goods, with zero tariffs and quotas". There would be "ambitious customs arrangements" that "build on" the arrangements in the withdrawal agreement.
The political declaration envisages "a free trade area and deep co-operation on goods, with zero tariffs and quotas". The two sides say they want this new arrangement to solve the Irish border problem, removing the need for that troublesome backstop. Here's our Reality Check team's view of the key points of the declaration
There would be "ambitious customs arrangements" that "build on" the arrangements in the withdrawal agreement.
The two sides say they want this new arrangement to solve the Irish border problem, removing the need for that troublesome backstop.
Have they solved the Irish border issue?Have they solved the Irish border issue?
This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with guard posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with guard posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.
So they agreed to put in place a "backstop" - a kind of safety net to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of future trade talks between the UK and the EU.So they agreed to put in place a "backstop" - a kind of safety net to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of future trade talks between the UK and the EU.
The backstop will mean that Northern Ireland would stay aligned to some EU rules on things like food products and goods standards.The backstop will mean that Northern Ireland would stay aligned to some EU rules on things like food products and goods standards.
That will prevent the needs for checks on goods at the Irish border, but would require some products being brought to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK to be subject to new checks and controls.That will prevent the needs for checks on goods at the Irish border, but would require some products being brought to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK to be subject to new checks and controls.
The backstop would also involve a temporary single custom territory, effectively keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs union.The backstop would also involve a temporary single custom territory, effectively keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs union.
But this bit is controversial - Brexiteers do not like the prospect of being tied to EU customs rules, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said it will not tolerate anything that creates a new border down the Irish Sea.But this bit is controversial - Brexiteers do not like the prospect of being tied to EU customs rules, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said it will not tolerate anything that creates a new border down the Irish Sea.
The role of the European Court of Justice - which will still have jurisdiction in the UK on customs and single market rules - could also spark protests.The role of the European Court of Justice - which will still have jurisdiction in the UK on customs and single market rules - could also spark protests.
Mrs May says she does not want to have to use the backstop at all - and the withdrawal agreement says the UK and the EU will resolve to ensure it is not necessary by coming up with alternative arrangements.Mrs May says she does not want to have to use the backstop at all - and the withdrawal agreement says the UK and the EU will resolve to ensure it is not necessary by coming up with alternative arrangements.
They could also extend the transition if there is no long-term solution in place by July 2020 - but only once.They could also extend the transition if there is no long-term solution in place by July 2020 - but only once.
What else is in the agreement?What else is in the agreement?
Who has resigned? Who resigned?
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit secretary on Thursday morning, telling BBC News he quit the cabinet over "fatal flaws" in the draft agreement. He added the UK should be ready to risk a no-deal Brexit in the face of EU "blackmail". Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit secretary, telling BBC News he quit the cabinet over "fatal flaws" in the draft withdrawal agreement. He added the UK should be ready to risk a no-deal Brexit in the face of EU "blackmail".
Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and junior Brexit minister Suella Braverman have also quit, as have Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a ministerial aide at the education department, and Ranil Jayawardena, a ministerial aide at the justice department. Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and junior Brexit minister Suella Braverman have also quit, as have Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a ministerial aide at the education department, and Ranil Jayawardena, a ministerial aide at the justice department. Others to go were Northern Ireland minister Shailesh Vara and Rehman Chishti, the MP for Gillingham and Rainham, announced his resignation as vice-chairman of the Conservative Party and also as the prime minister's trade envoy to Pakistan.
Northern Ireland minister Shailesh Vara was the first to resign over Mrs May's agreement on Thursday morning, saying, it "leaves the UK in a halfway house with no time limit on when we will finally be a sovereign nation".
On Thursday afternoon, Rehman Chishti, the MP for Gillingham and Rainham, announced his resignation as vice-chairman of the Conservative Party and also as the prime minister's trade envoy to Pakistan.
Is there going to be a leadership challenge?Is there going to be a leadership challenge?
A number of Conservatives have said publicly that they have written letters to Sir Graham Brady - the chair of the 1922 Committee, made up of backbench MPs - saying they have no confidence in Mrs May's leadership.A number of Conservatives have said publicly that they have written letters to Sir Graham Brady - the chair of the 1922 Committee, made up of backbench MPs - saying they have no confidence in Mrs May's leadership.
These include the head of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former minister John Whittingdale. These include the head of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former minister John Whittingdale. Party rules say that if Sir Graham receives 48 letters - the equivalent of 15% of MPs - it will trigger a vote of confidence.
Party rules say that if Sir Graham receives 48 letters - the equivalent of 15% of MPs - it will trigger a vote of confidence. If Mrs May wins that a secret ballot, she would be immune from another challenge for a year. But if she lost, there would be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand. Sir Graham will not reveal the number of letters he receives until he gets to that magic number. More than a week after the rebels went public it seems they have failed to get to the 48 figure.
If Mrs May wins that a secret ballot, she would be immune from another challenge for a year. But if she lost, there would be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand. It is not yet clear how any of this will affect Brexit and the outcome of talks.
Sir Graham will not reveal the number of letters he receives until he gets to that magic number.
And it is not yet clear how any of this will affect Brexit and the outcome of talks.
So what happens next?So what happens next?
An emergency EU summit is due to be held on 25 November, where EU leaders are expected to sign off on the withdrawal agreement and future relationship declaration.An emergency EU summit is due to be held on 25 November, where EU leaders are expected to sign off on the withdrawal agreement and future relationship declaration.
It is difficult to see how the summit could go ahead if Theresa May loses a confidence vote in the next few days.
It is up to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, to decide when such a vote will be held, once he has received the required 48 letters from Tory MPs demanding one, but he has said the process will move quickly. The last time a Tory leader was ousted by their own MPs, in 2003, Iain Duncan Smith faced a confidence vote the next day.
If Mrs May loses she will continue to be prime minister until the leadership contest is over but she won't be allowed to take part in it.
She could opt to resign and hand over to a caretaker prime minister.
In either circumstance, her version of Brexit, as set out in the withdrawal agreement and future relationship document, would be in doubt.
European Council President Donald Tusk has said the summit will go ahead unless something "extraordinary" happens - he did not elaborate on what that might be.
Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor who currently holds the revolving EU presidency, told Die Presse: "The next week will be intense, because of course it will be crucial if there is a majority for a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May. In any case, as the EU Presidency, we have made all the preparations to move forward swiftly."
What about the Commons vote?What about the Commons vote?
If Mrs May survives as PM she faces the fight of her life to get MPs to vote for it. If it hasn't been tricky enough already for Mrs May, probably the most difficult part comes if and when the UK government and the EU have agreed on their preferred Brexit deal.
Any vote is expected to take place around 7 December. She then has to persuade MPs to vote for it. Any vote is expected to take place in the first half of December.
Mrs May does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, has already said it is likely to vote against it, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.Mrs May does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, has already said it is likely to vote against it, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.
A number of Conservative MPs on both the Remain and Leave wings of the party have also said they will vote against it.A number of Conservative MPs on both the Remain and Leave wings of the party have also said they will vote against it.
If Mrs May loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister. If Mrs May loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister.
Some Tory and Labour MPs hope Mrs May will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out. Some Tory and Labour MPs hope Mrs May will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out. On Thursday EU leaders played down talk of renegotiating the deal, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel saying there was "no question" of reopening talks.
On Thursday EU leaders played down talk of renegotiating the deal, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel saying there was "no question" of reopening talks.
Mrs May herself said that if MPs did not unite behind the agreement, "nobody can know for sure the consequences that will follow" and it would mean taking "a path of deep and grave uncertainty".Mrs May herself said that if MPs did not unite behind the agreement, "nobody can know for sure the consequences that will follow" and it would mean taking "a path of deep and grave uncertainty".
Do you have any questions about the draft withdrawal agreement?Do you have any questions about the draft withdrawal agreement?
Use this form to ask your question:Use this form to ask your question: