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A brief guide to where we are with Brexit A brief guide to where we are with Brexit
(about 17 hours later)
We are now entering the Brexit "endgame", Prime Minister Theresa May tells us. What does she mean? Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now?
The basics: A reminderThe basics: A reminder
The UK is due to leave the European Union at 11pm on Friday 29 March, 2019. The reason the UK is leaving is because people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice and what post-Brexit relations will look like. A deal has to agreed by negotiators but also by Theresa May's cabinet, then MPs and, finally, by the 27 other EU member states. The UK is due to leave the European Union at 11pm on Friday 29 March, 2019. The reason the UK is leaving is because people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice and what post-Brexit relations will look like. A deal has been agreed by negotiators - it now has to get the stamp of approval from Theresa May's cabinet, then MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states.
Will there really be a deal this week?Will there really be a deal this week?
A cabinet source has told BBC the text of the withdrawal agreement has been agreed at a technical level by officials from both sides after intensive talks this week. Theresa May is holding a special cabinet meeting on Wednesday to discuss the agreement. That's what Theresa May is hoping. After months of often fraught negotiations in Brussels, the government has produced a draft withdrawal agreement with the EU. The 500 page document will be published later. Ministers have been given sight of it, in a special reading room in Downing Street, ahead of a cabinet meeting to discuss it. Mrs May is telling her ministers the agreement, while not perfect, is as good as the government can get.
Why is the PM so keen to get a deal by Wednesday? How significant is this?
Any hopes of an EU summit to sign off on a withdrawal agreement this month will apparently be hit if the talks go on much longer - there will not be enough time to set up a meeting of the 28 leaders. There are a few final tweaks to be finalised but this is basically the deal setting out the terms for Brexit. The UK and the EU have been negotiating it for more than a year.
The next possible date for a meeting of EU leaders is in December, which could result in the Commons vote on any deal being delayed until after Christmas. If Mrs May can get her ministers to back it, there could be an EU summit later this month to sign off on the final wording of the agreement - and MPs could be given a vote on it before Christmas.
With uncertainty over whether MPs would back a deal, missing this week's deadline would increase the chances of the UK leaving without one. The UK government would then step up no-deal preparations and spending. Have they solved the Irish border issue?
What were they still arguing about in Brussels? This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with border posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.
The sticking point over the Irish border. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with border posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.
But the two sides have not been able to agree how they can guarantee this - with the EU insisting on a "backstop" arrangement which will kick in to avoid a physical border if whatever future trade deal the UK and EU agree does not manage to maintain the current border arrangements.But the two sides have not been able to agree how they can guarantee this - with the EU insisting on a "backstop" arrangement which will kick in to avoid a physical border if whatever future trade deal the UK and EU agree does not manage to maintain the current border arrangements.
The backstop within the agreed draft is believed to avoid a return to a "hard border" with the Republic by keeping the UK as a whole aligned with the EU customs union for a limited time.
What about a trade deal?What about a trade deal?
The two sides are hoping to agree a rough outline of a trade deal to be signed off at the same time as the withdrawal agreement. If all goes as planned, the details will be hammered out after the UK leaves. A rough outline of a trade deal - what they are calling a "political declaration" - will be published at the same time as the withdrawal agreement. If all goes as planned, the details of the deal of how trade will operate after Brexit will be hammered out during the 21 month transition period, which is designed to bridge the gap between the UK officially leaving the EU and the new relationship kicking in.
So what happens next?So what happens next?
Even if she does get her top team to sign off on a Brexit withdrawal agreement, Theresa May faces the fight of her life to get MPs to vote for it. Even if she does get her top team to sign off on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, Theresa May faces the fight of her life to get MPs to vote for it.
She does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. She does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, have already said they are likely to vote against the withdrawal agreement, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.
If the only choice presented to MPs is her plan or a no-deal scenario it could frighten enough waverers into backing her. Labour and some Tories are trying to ensure other options are put to the vote. All eyes are on the Brexiteers in the cabinet - will any of them resign in protest at the contents of the agreement? Ministers who have recently quit the cabinet claim the agreement will keep the UK under EU control and is not a proper Brexit.
If ministers back the agreement, focus will switch to the Commons vote.
If the only choice presented to MPs is Mrs May's version of Brexit or no-deal it could frighten enough waverers into backing Mrs May. That is what Downing Street will be hoping. Labour and some Tories are trying to ensure other options are put to the vote.
If she loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister.If she loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister.
Some Tory and Labour MPs hope she will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out.Some Tory and Labour MPs hope she will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out.