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Brexit: A guide to where we are Brexit: A guide to where we are
(3 days later)
Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement and a political declaration about future relations between the UK and the EU. It hasn't been painless - two cabinet ministers and two junior ministers resigned while some Conservative MPs want to force a leadership contest. What happens now? Theresa May has secured a deal with the European Union on the terms of Britain's exit on 29 March - and a joint statement on how future relations between the two might work. What happens now?
The basics: A reminderThe basics: A reminder
The UK is due to leave the European Union at 23:00 GMT on Friday 29 March, 2019, after people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum.The UK is due to leave the European Union at 23:00 GMT on Friday 29 March, 2019, after people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum.
The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice. This has now been agreed with the EU and backed by the cabinet, although two ministers resigned in protest at it. They have also agreed a rough outline of how future relations might work, known as the political declaration.
Mrs May announced that a deal had been reached, and approved by cabinet, last week. But two cabinet ministers have since resigned. Theresa May now has to get MPs to vote for the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration. If she clears that hurdle, it will go to a vote in the European Parliament.
The deal would also need to get the stamp of approval from MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states.
What has been agreed between the UK and EU?What has been agreed between the UK and EU?
A draft 585-page agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union - including how much money will be paid to the EU, a 21-month transition period after Brexit day next March and commitments on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU. There are two documents.
It is not a trade deal - that will be hammered out during the transition period, if all goes as planned. They have also agreed to the text of a separate, shorter 26-page statement on the UK's future relationship with the EU, including the kind of trade deal the two sides want. A draft 585-page agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union is a legally-binding text that sets out the terms of the UK's departure. It includes:
So what about a trade deal? The other document is a 26 page statement on the UK's future relationship with the EU, when the transition period comes to an end. This is not legally-binding and contains wriggle room for both sides, based around the central ideal of continued close co-operation. The government has described it as "a set of instructions to negotiators" working on a legally-binding treaty.
Alongside the 585-page withdrawal agreement is that 26-page "political declaration" setting out what future UK and EU relations will look like. This is a broad outline and is not binding - the details of a trade deal will be worked out during the transition period with both the EU and UK hoping to have an agreement in place by December 2020. Formal negotiations on everything it contains can only begin after Brexit has actually happened on 29 March 2019.
The political declaration envisages "a free trade area and deep co-operation on goods, with zero tariffs and quotas". There would be "ambitious customs arrangements" that "build on" the arrangements in the withdrawal agreement. The declaration includes:
The two sides say they want this new arrangement to solve the Irish border problem, removing the need for that troublesome backstop. Here's our Reality Check team's view of the key points of the declaration
Have they solved the Irish border issue?Have they solved the Irish border issue?
This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with guard posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with guard posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.
So they agreed to put in place a "backstop" - a kind of safety net to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of future trade talks between the UK and the EU.So they agreed to put in place a "backstop" - a kind of safety net to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of future trade talks between the UK and the EU.
The backstop will mean that Northern Ireland would stay aligned to some EU rules on things like food products and goods standards. The backstop will mean that Northern Ireland would stay aligned to some EU rules on things like food products and goods standards. That will prevent the needs for checks on goods at the Irish border, but would require some products being brought to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK to be subject to new checks and controls.
That will prevent the needs for checks on goods at the Irish border, but would require some products being brought to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK to be subject to new checks and controls.
The backstop would also involve a temporary single custom territory, effectively keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs union.The backstop would also involve a temporary single custom territory, effectively keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs union.
But this bit is controversial - Brexiteers do not like the prospect of being tied to EU customs rules, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said it will not tolerate anything that creates a new border down the Irish Sea. But Brexiteers do not like the prospect of being tied to EU customs rules and they say there's no process for the UK to unilaterally decide to exit the backstop - and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said it will not tolerate anything that creates a new border down the Irish Sea.
The role of the European Court of Justice - which will still have jurisdiction in the UK on customs and single market rules - could also spark protests. Could the transition period be extended?
Mrs May says she does not want to have to use the backstop at all - and the withdrawal agreement says the UK and the EU will resolve to ensure it is not necessary by coming up with alternative arrangements. Mrs May insists she does not want to use the backstop and says it is highly unlikely that it will ever be triggered (her critics think otherwise).
They could also extend the transition if there is no long-term solution in place by July 2020 - but only once. But if no trade deal is in prospect by July 2020, the two sides could agree to extend the transition period instead. This would avoid the need for the backstop at that time, and keep trade with the EU flowing as it does now.
What else is in the agreement? They could do this only once. The transition could not go on being extended indefinitely.
Who resigned? But there is no agreement on how long any extension would be. Some have suggested the end of 2022, but the government position has been for it all to be sorted before the next election, which is due in Spring 2022.
Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit secretary, telling BBC News he quit the cabinet over "fatal flaws" in the draft withdrawal agreement. He added the UK should be ready to risk a no-deal Brexit in the face of EU "blackmail". Either way, this could keep the UK under EU rules for at least three years after March's official Brexit date, something Brexiteers are also unhappy about.
Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and junior Brexit minister Suella Braverman have also quit, as have Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a ministerial aide at the education department, and Ranil Jayawardena, a ministerial aide at the justice department. Others to go were Northern Ireland minister Shailesh Vara and Rehman Chishti, the MP for Gillingham and Rainham, announced his resignation as vice-chairman of the Conservative Party and also as the prime minister's trade envoy to Pakistan. Can Theresa May get the deal through the Commons?
Is there going to be a leadership challenge? As things stand, it looks unlikely. MPs are expected to vote on the deal on 12 December.
A number of Conservatives have said publicly that they have written letters to Sir Graham Brady - the chair of the 1922 Committee, made up of backbench MPs - saying they have no confidence in Mrs May's leadership. Labour and all the other opposition parties in the House of Commons have said they will vote against it. Dozens of Conservative MPs - some reports say as many as 80 - are also opposed to it. And Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, who Mrs May relies on to keep her in power, have also said they will vote against it.
These include the head of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former minister John Whittingdale. Party rules say that if Sir Graham receives 48 letters - the equivalent of 15% of MPs - it will trigger a vote of confidence. Theresa May is hoping to persuade MPs that the deal not only delivers on the result of the EU referendum by allowing the UK to take back control of its "money, laws and borders" it is also the best the UK can get from the EU and there is no alternative on offer.
If Mrs May wins that a secret ballot, she would be immune from another challenge for a year. But if she lost, there would be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand. Sir Graham will not reveal the number of letters he receives until he gets to that magic number. More than a week after the rebels went public it seems they have failed to get to the 48 figure. She will also argue that if her deal is voted down, Britain risks leaving without a deal - a prospect feared by many MPs, who think it will cause chaos at the ports and damage industry - or, she says, there will be "no Brexit at all".
It is not yet clear how any of this will affect Brexit and the outcome of talks. Why are MPs against the deal?
So what happens next? Brexiteers say it is not what people voted for - and it could keep the UK tied to the EU indefinitely, without any say over its rules. Some have even argued that it would be worse than staying in the EU.
An emergency EU summit is due to be held on 25 November, where EU leaders are expected to sign off on the withdrawal agreement and future relationship declaration. Remainers also argue that it is a worse deal for the UK than staying in the EU.
What about the Commons vote? What happens if Mrs May can't get the deal through the Commons?
If it hasn't been tricky enough already for Mrs May, probably the most difficult part comes if and when the UK government and the EU have agreed on their preferred Brexit deal. It is hard to say for certain. There are number of possible scenarios, including:
She then has to persuade MPs to vote for it. Any vote is expected to take place in the first half of December. Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell has also floated the idea of Labour forming a minority government without a general election to have a go at getting its own version of Brexit - centred around a permanent customs union with the EU - through Parliament, although the party would then have to get the EU to agree to that.
Mrs May does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, has already said it is likely to vote against it, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.
A number of Conservative MPs on both the Remain and Leave wings of the party have also said they will vote against it.
If Mrs May loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister.
Some Tory and Labour MPs hope Mrs May will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out. On Thursday EU leaders played down talk of renegotiating the deal, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel saying there was "no question" of reopening talks.
Mrs May herself said that if MPs did not unite behind the agreement, "nobody can know for sure the consequences that will follow" and it would mean taking "a path of deep and grave uncertainty".
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