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Brexit: A guide to where we are Brexit: A guide to where we are
(about 7 hours later)
Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now? Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with Brussels, and her cabinet has backed it. What happens now?
The basics: A reminderThe basics: A reminder
The UK is due to leave the European Union at 11pm on Friday 29 March, 2019. The reason the UK is leaving is because people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice and what post-Brexit relations will look like. A deal has been agreed by negotiators - it now has to get the stamp of approval from Theresa May's cabinet, then MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states. The UK is due to leave the European Union at 11pm on Friday 29 March, 2019. The reason the UK is leaving is because people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice and what post-Brexit relations will look like. A deal has been agreed by negotiators - it now has to get the stamp of approval from MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states.
Will there really be a deal this week?
No. But there could be one next week if, as expected, EU leaders meet for a summit, which the Irish government says is set to happen on Sunday 25 November. MPs will then be given a few days to debate the deal, before voting on it some time before Christmas. Everything depends on Mrs May securing the backing of her cabinet first, however. She has told ministers - some of whom are very sceptical about her version of Brexit - that the agreement, while not perfect, is as good as the government can get.
Have they solved the Irish border issue?Have they solved the Irish border issue?
This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with guard posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with guard posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk.
But the two sides have not been able to agree how they can guarantee this - with the EU insisting on a "backstop" arrangement, which will kick in to avoid physical checks if whatever future trade deal the UK and EU agree does not manage to maintain the current open border. So they agreed to put in place a "backstop" - a kind of safety net to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of future trade talks.
The backstop within the agreed draft is believed to avoid a return to a "hard border" with the Republic by keeping the UK as a whole aligned with the EU customs union for a limited time. The would involve a UK-EU "single customs territory" - meaning customs checks would not be needed at the border. Northern Ireland would also stay aligned to some other EU rules, so checks on things like agricultural products and goods standards are not needed.
The EU said this was "indispensable" to avoiding a hard border.
But this bit is controversial - Tory Brexiteers do not like the prospect of being tied to EU customs rules, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has said it will not tolerate anything that creates a new border down the Irish sea.
Theresa May says she does not want to have to use the backstop at all - and the withdrawal agreement says the UK and the EU will resolve to ensure it is not necessary by coming up with alternative arrangements.
They could also extend the transition if there is no long-term solution in place by July 2020.
What else is in the agreement?What else is in the agreement?
It has not been published yet so we don't know all the details. Leaks and briefings from EU sources suggest it will include:
What about a trade deal?What about a trade deal?
A rough outline of a trade deal - what negotiators are calling a "political declaration" - will be published at the same time as the withdrawal agreement, but it will be much shorter. If all goes as planned, the details will be hammered out during the 21-month transition period, which is designed to bridge the gap between the UK officially leaving the EU and the new relationship kicking in. Alongside the 585-page withdrawal agreement is a shorter document setting out what future UK and EU relations will look like. If this can be agreed in time, it would kick in after the transition period ends in December 2020.
It envisages a "a free trade area and deep cooperation on goods, with zero tariffs and quotas".
There would be "ambitious customs arrangements" that "build on" the arrangements in the withdrawal agreement.
The two sides say they want this new arrangement to solve the Irish border problem, removing the need for that troublesome backstop.
So what happens next?So what happens next?
Even if she does get her top team to sign off the Brexit withdrawal agreement, Theresa May faces the fight of her life to get MPs to vote for it. An EU summit is expected later this month to agree the text. But after that, Theresa May faces the fight of her life to get MPs to vote for it.
She does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, have already said they are likely to vote against it, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.She does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, have already said they are likely to vote against it, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.
All eyes are on the Brexiteers in the cabinet - will any of them resign in protest at the contents of the agreement? Ministers who have recently quit the cabinet claim the agreement will keep the UK under EU control and is not a proper Brexit. There has been talk of backbench Tories calling for the prime minister to go, and there could yet be resignations from the cabinet, with several known to have voiced concerns during their five-hour meeting in Downing Street.
If ministers back the agreement, focus will switch to the Commons vote. When it comes to the crunch Commons vote, if the only choice presented to MPs is Mrs May's version of Brexit or no-deal, it could frighten enough waverers into backing her. That's what Downing Street will be hoping. Labour and some Tories are trying to ensure other options are put to the vote as well.
If the only choice presented to MPs is Mrs May's version of Brexit or no-deal, it could frighten enough waverers into backing her. That's what Downing Street will be hoping. Labour and some Tories are trying to ensure other options are put to the vote as well.
If she loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister.If she loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister.
Some Tory and Labour MPs hope she will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out.Some Tory and Labour MPs hope she will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out.