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| Brexit: A brief guide to where we are | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now? | Theresa May has agreed a draft Brexit deal with Brussels. What happens now? |
| The basics: A reminder | The basics: A reminder |
| The UK is due to leave the European Union at 11pm on Friday 29 March, 2019. The reason the UK is leaving is because people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice and what post-Brexit relations will look like. A deal has been agreed by negotiators - it now has to get the stamp of approval from Theresa May's cabinet, then MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states. | The UK is due to leave the European Union at 11pm on Friday 29 March, 2019. The reason the UK is leaving is because people voted by 51.9% to 48.1% for Leave in the 2016 referendum. The UK and the EU have spent more than a year trying to agree on how the divorce - as it's often called - will work in practice and what post-Brexit relations will look like. A deal has been agreed by negotiators - it now has to get the stamp of approval from Theresa May's cabinet, then MPs and, finally, the 27 other EU member states. |
| Will there really be a deal this week? | Will there really be a deal this week? |
| No. But there could be one next week if, as expected, EU leaders meet for a summit, which the Irish government says is set to happen on Sunday, 25 November. MPs will then be given a few days to debate the deal, before voting on it. Everything depends on Mrs May securing the backing of her cabinet first, however. She has told ministers - some of whom are very sceptical about her version of Brexit that the agreement, while not perfect, is as good as the government can get. | |
| How significant is the draft withdrawal agreement? | |
| There are a few final tweaks to be finalised but this is basically the deal setting out the terms for Brexit. The UK and the EU have been negotiating it for more than a year. | There are a few final tweaks to be finalised but this is basically the deal setting out the terms for Brexit. The UK and the EU have been negotiating it for more than a year. |
| If Mrs May can get her ministers to back it, there will be an EU summit later this month to sign off on the final wording of the agreement - and MPs could be given a vote on it before Christmas. | |
| Have they solved the Irish border issue? | Have they solved the Irish border issue? |
| This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with border posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk. | This was the major sticking point in talks with Brussels. Both sides are committed to avoiding a return to a visible Northern Ireland border with border posts and checks. They believe that bringing them back would put the peace process at risk. |
| But the two sides have not been able to agree how they can guarantee this - with the EU insisting on a "backstop" arrangement which will kick in to avoid a physical border if whatever future trade deal the UK and EU agree does not manage to maintain the current border arrangements. | But the two sides have not been able to agree how they can guarantee this - with the EU insisting on a "backstop" arrangement which will kick in to avoid a physical border if whatever future trade deal the UK and EU agree does not manage to maintain the current border arrangements. |
| The backstop within the agreed draft is believed to avoid a return to a "hard border" with the Republic by keeping the UK as a whole aligned with the EU customs union for a limited time. | The backstop within the agreed draft is believed to avoid a return to a "hard border" with the Republic by keeping the UK as a whole aligned with the EU customs union for a limited time. |
| What about a trade deal? | What about a trade deal? |
| A rough outline of a trade deal - what they are calling a "political declaration" - will be published at the same time as the withdrawal agreement. If all goes as planned, the details of the deal of how trade will operate after Brexit will be hammered out during the 21 month transition period, which is designed to bridge the gap between the UK officially leaving the EU and the new relationship kicking in. | A rough outline of a trade deal - what they are calling a "political declaration" - will be published at the same time as the withdrawal agreement. If all goes as planned, the details of the deal of how trade will operate after Brexit will be hammered out during the 21 month transition period, which is designed to bridge the gap between the UK officially leaving the EU and the new relationship kicking in. |
| So what happens next? | So what happens next? |
| Even if she does get her top team to sign off the Brexit withdrawal agreement, Theresa May faces the fight of her life to get MPs to vote for it. | |
| She does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, have already said they are likely to vote against the withdrawal agreement, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. | She does not have a Commons majority and many MPs on her own side - as well as Labour and the other opposition parties - are sceptical about her Brexit plans, or openly hostile to them. The DUP, which Mrs May relies on in key votes, have already said they are likely to vote against the withdrawal agreement, claiming it will lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. |
| All eyes are on the Brexiteers in the cabinet - will any of them resign in protest at the contents of the agreement? Ministers who have recently quit the cabinet claim the agreement will keep the UK under EU control and is not a proper Brexit. | All eyes are on the Brexiteers in the cabinet - will any of them resign in protest at the contents of the agreement? Ministers who have recently quit the cabinet claim the agreement will keep the UK under EU control and is not a proper Brexit. |
| If ministers back the agreement, focus will switch to the Commons vote. | If ministers back the agreement, focus will switch to the Commons vote. |
| If the only choice presented to MPs is Mrs May's version of Brexit or no-deal it could frighten enough waverers into backing Mrs May. That is what Downing Street will be hoping. Labour and some Tories are trying to ensure other options are put to the vote. | If the only choice presented to MPs is Mrs May's version of Brexit or no-deal it could frighten enough waverers into backing Mrs May. That is what Downing Street will be hoping. Labour and some Tories are trying to ensure other options are put to the vote. |
| If she loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister. | If she loses the vote, we enter uncharted territory. She may seek to renegotiate with the EU but most expect her time in No 10 to end. There could be a general election and/or a new prime minister. |
| Some Tory and Labour MPs hope she will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out. | Some Tory and Labour MPs hope she will head that off by postponing Brexit day and calling another referendum, something she has consistently ruled out. |