This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/12/tory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live

The article has changed 33 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 10 Version 11
May could offer to stand down before election to win support in confidence vote – politics live May could offer to stand down before election to win support in confidence vote – politics live
(35 minutes later)
If it all goes wrong for Theresa May tonight, Ed Miliband has some helpful career advice ...
.@theresa_may If it goes wrong tonight I can promise you a bright future in podcasting...
Another answer to a question from a reader.
Is it now not possible for Labour to push for a no-confidence vote? Surely that would be "no confidence" in the government, rather than the leader of the Tory party? How does it usually work and what are the likely routes the opposition might take? Yes - I know we are probably in uncharted waters.
It is easy for Labour to trigger a no confidence debate. They just table a motion of no confidence, and by convention it has to be debated fairly soon. (The leader of the opposition can do this, but other opposition parties cannot table no confidence motions that then have to be debated.)
What’s holding Labour back is not that this would be difficult to do; it is that the government would probably win (and Jeremy Corbyn would then be under pressure to actively back a second referendum, but that’s another issue.)
It is a mistake to think that Tory MPs who would back a no confidence motion in Theresa May as PM would back a no confidence motion in the government. They won’t. They want a Tory government - just under a different leader.
Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has said he expected Theresa May to win the vote “handsomely”. He said:
I think the prime minister will win tonight and she will win handsomely. I regret that a leadership contest has been triggered, but I respect my colleagues.
I know that everyone’s made their decision after careful thought.
The one thing I would ask every Conservative MP to do is to ponder before they cast their vote this evening: If we don’t support the prime minister, then we risk derailing or diluting Brexit.
If we do support the prime minister we can honour the mandate that the British people have given us.
It is notable that the language Gove, a Brexiter, is using about the MPs who have triggered the no confidence vote is notably more conciliatory than the language used by Philip Hammond, the remain-voting chancellor. (See 1.56pm.)
This is from Hugh Bennett, from the Guido Fawkes website.
Ballot boxes spotted on the move in parliament pic.twitter.com/CW1Q9D5goj
My colleague Matthew Weaver, who has been tracking the statements that Tory MPs have been making on Twitter about how they will vote tonight, says 137 of them have now declared for the prime minister.My colleague Matthew Weaver, who has been tracking the statements that Tory MPs have been making on Twitter about how they will vote tonight, says 137 of them have now declared for the prime minister.
Confidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory partyConfidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory party
And he puts the number of Tory MPs who have publicly declared against May at 28.And he puts the number of Tory MPs who have publicly declared against May at 28.
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has described those Tories trying to remove Theresa May as “extremists” pushing for a no-deal Brexit. He told Sky News:Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has described those Tories trying to remove Theresa May as “extremists” pushing for a no-deal Brexit. He told Sky News:
I’m very clear that the prime minister will have the support of the great majority of parliamentary colleagues. And I think what this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the British people or the British economy. Leaving the European Union without a deal would be bad for Britain.I’m very clear that the prime minister will have the support of the great majority of parliamentary colleagues. And I think what this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the British people or the British economy. Leaving the European Union without a deal would be bad for Britain.
Since our last update another 15 Tory MPs have declared they will be voting for May tonight taking the running total to 136 (and counting). She needs just 22 more to win.Since our last update another 15 Tory MPs have declared they will be voting for May tonight taking the running total to 136 (and counting). She needs just 22 more to win.
Here’s the latest batch:Here’s the latest batch:
Gillian KeeganGillian Keegan
Heather WheelerHeather Wheeler
Richard GrahamRichard Graham
Richard BenyonRichard Benyon
Mark PawseyMark Pawsey
Chris PhilpChris Philp
Kemi BadenochKemi Badenoch
Ken ClarkeKen Clarke
David RutleyDavid Rutley
Ben WallaceBen Wallace
Garry StreeterGarry Streeter
Kwasi KwartengKwasi Kwarteng
Chole SmithChole Smith
Nusrat GhaniNusrat Ghani
Lucy FrazerLucy Frazer
Confidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory partyConfidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory party
Can we expect an intervention by the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, later today?Can we expect an intervention by the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, later today?
The Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, revealed in the Dáil that he would be talking to him to discuss what assurances he can give May. He said:The Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, revealed in the Dáil that he would be talking to him to discuss what assurances he can give May. He said:
I’ll be taking a call with President Juncker later on today to see what assurances we can give the United Kingdom parliament that might assist them to ratify the withdrawal agreement.I’ll be taking a call with President Juncker later on today to see what assurances we can give the United Kingdom parliament that might assist them to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
He reiterated however that the substance of the deal could not be changed “including the substance of the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland”.He reiterated however that the substance of the deal could not be changed “including the substance of the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland”.
Another question.Another question.
Hello Andrew, Is this vote secret? If it is do you think that will effect the result?Hello Andrew, Is this vote secret? If it is do you think that will effect the result?
Yes, more or less. See 10.30am for more.Yes, more or less. See 10.30am for more.
At the post PMQs briefing, asked how Theresa May was dealing with the stress, the Downing Street source said:At the post PMQs briefing, asked how Theresa May was dealing with the stress, the Downing Street source said:
A lot of people have talked about her resilience in different situations and I think we have seen that again today. As ever, she is determined and focused.A lot of people have talked about her resilience in different situations and I think we have seen that again today. As ever, she is determined and focused.
The Conservative MP Simon Hart has described the decision by some of his colleagues to trigger a no confidence vote in Theresa May as “vengeful”. He said:
It looks self-indulgent, it looks vengeful and it doesn’t actually improve the chances of delivering the sort of Brexit that we’re all keen to deliver next March.
I think it’s a really strange time to be trying to depose somebody right at the final stages of the most complicated negotiations the country’s ever been involved with.
It seems to me the only people who will benefit from this are people we’re trying to negotiate with in Brussels who will see this as an opportunity to drop any pretence of cooperation.
A last-minute BBC News special has been announced for Wednesday evening on BBC One, with the result and reaction to the confidence vote in Theresa May. As the Press Association reports, the programme, titled May Leadership Challenge, will be hosted by Andrew Neil. It will air from 7.30pm until 9pm. The One Show, which is scheduled from 7pm to 8pm, will end early and the previously scheduled 8pm broadcast of Shop Well for Less will be replaced by the news programme.
Sir Graham Brady said earlier that the result would be released before 9pm. But journalists expect it well before then. The ballot closes at 8pm, and it does not take long to count 315 ballot papers.
Another question from a reader.
Hi Andrew and Ed. This is a good idea. I wish it hadn't met with so many facetious responses. Anyway, a question.
In the case that the Tories vote one of the hard brexiteers as leader, what probability would you give to Labour winning a vote of no confidence?
And what about in the alternative case that May survives?
If May survives, it will depend on whether she passes her Brexit deal, or whether we drift towards a no-deal Brexit. If her deal does go through, then the DUP has signalled it could pull the plug on the confidence and supply agreement. If the DUP and all the opposition parties vote against the Tories, the Tories lose.
With Boris Johnson as Tory leader pursuing a very hard Brexit, you imagine a handful of MPs quitting the party, and perhaps voting with Labour in a confidence motion. But Johnson is about the only likely leader who would split the party like that, and his chances of winning are probably over-rated.
And we are only talking about a handful of MPs anyway. To vote against your own party in a confidence motion would be a very, very big deal.
Overall, Labour winning a no confidence motion comes quite near the bottom of my list of likely Brexit eventualities.
The Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, who is on maternity leave after giving birth to her first child at the end of October, has tweeted her support for Theresa May, describing her as having “cojones of steel”.
The Prime Minister has cojones of steel and is putting in a punishing degree of effort to deliver for our country. She has my full support.
This is Davidson’s first intervention since her leave began: she has been a consistent supporter of the prime minister throughout the Brexit process, despite being a passionate remainer. In September, she told the Guardian of her “great sadness” that the Irish border question had not been better discussed during the EU referendum campaign.
Ruth Davidson: ‘We’re not as far along in the conversation about mental health as we think’
Here is more from the No 10 briefing. A Downing Street source told journalists:
[Theresa May] is fighting for every vote. We have seen support from across the parliamentary party this morning but there is a lot more to do this afternoon.
This vote isn’t about who leads the party into the next election, it is about whether it makes sense to change leader at this point in the Brexit process …
She has said on a number of occasions – in fact, she said immediately after the last election in 2017 – that she would serve as long as her colleagues want her to.
She believes it is her duty to serve as long as the party wants her to.
The source also said he was “not aware” of any plans by May to give Tory colleagues a date for her departure as PM or Conservative leader.
This is from my colleague Heather Stewart, who has been at the post-PMQs lobby briefing.
Heavy hint from Downing St source on how May will play today: “She does not believe that this vote, today is about who leads the Conservative party into the next election - it is about whether it is sensible to change the leader at this point in the Brexit process”.
(That rather backs up the point I was making a moment ago - see 1.01pm.)
PMQs - Snap verdict: Some of the most famous footage of Margaret Thatcher in the House of Commons is from the speech she gave in the no confidence vote as she was stepping down. (It was the one where Dennis Skinner suggested she should be be governor of the European Central Bank, and Thatcher said at one point: “I’m enjoying this.”) It was a virtuoso performance, loudly cheered by Tory MPs – the same Tory MPs who had just voted her out of office (by not backing her in large enough numbers). Theresa May’s performance today wasn’t quite in the same league, but there were some similarities: a slightly swaggering performance at the despatch box, enthusiastic cheering from the government benches, and a striking disconnect between the public performance and the actual reality. (At least when Labour MPs were trying to boot Jeremy Corbyn out, they were honest enough not to cheer him in the House of Commons; they can’t match the Tories in duplicity.) It was a good performance from May, which will help her with the only audience that really matters today (the 315 Tory MPs voting tonight), although not one for the history books. Corbyn would have done better if he had focused on some difficult, “wedge” questions that would have caused problems for May with Tory MPs still weighing up how to vote. Like, ‘Are you 100% committed to lead your party into the next general election?’ There was one question of this kind, when Corbyn asked May to rule out a no-deal Brexit, but it wouldn’t have been hard to produce more. (The question about Priti Patel from Jim McMahon was another good example; that provoked an answer that will annoy the ERG.) Corbyn seemed more angry than usual, and the points he made about how outrageous it is that May will not even put her Brexit deal to a vote were entirely reasonable. But it felt like an argument for another day.
The BBC’s Andrew Neil says BBC research shows that more than 158 Tory MPs – the threshold – have said they will vote for Theresa May.
But he points out that just because MPs says they will vote for May, that does not necessarily mean they will.
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks what is worse: a no confidence motion tabled by Corbyn, or one tabled by her MPs?
May says what matters is to get a good deal.
And that’s it.
Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, says the Times today argues that a people’s vote is May’s only chance of saving her deal. What is May afraid of?
May says people voted for Brexit. The Commons needs to deliver on it.