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Theresa May says new PM would have to delay Brexit if she loses confidence vote – politics live
PMQs: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn ahead of confidence vote – politics live
(35 minutes later)
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, has been speaking at an event today where an alternative Brexit plan was launched. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has been tweeting some key points.
Labour’s Matthew Pennycook asks which of her Brexit misjudgments she most regrets: laying down unreasonable red lines, holding an election, or letting her policy be set by Brexiters.
NEW David Davis refuses to say how he will vote but hints it will be against May. "I’ll cast my vote this evening in the national interest and what I judge to be the national interest, that means we must have a reset of negotiations, and a reset that protects the integrity"
May defends her record.
NEW David Davis - May's EU deal is "dead""I think she and the EU will understand now that this proposal is dead and they have to come with an alternative."
Ranil Jayawardena, a Conservative, asks about a survey saying expectant mothers need better care to avert still births.
Retweet this summary of David Davis 10 year extendable backstop - deleted earlier post pic.twitter.com/MbBcywXqzP
May says this is an important issue. She rattles of a list of things the government is doing.
Another reader’s question.
Ellie Reeves, the Labour MP, says May’s deal is doomed. Her party do not have confidence in her. But will she let the people have a vote?
Can Her Majesty dissolve this parliament and install Jeremy Corben as Caretaker PM awaiting a General Election, just as she did with the democratically-elected Whitlam government of Australia on Rememrance Day, 1975?
May says people voted to leave the EU. It is her duty to deliver on that.
No.
Mark Pawsey, a Conservative, asks May if she agrees that what is best for business is MPs finalising a deal and backing May for the leadership.
(I think the consensus now is that the removal of Whitlam in those circumstances was a mistake. But it is not to going to happen in the UK now.)
May says they should deliver a good Brexit for the country.
This, from Rupert Harrison, who used to be George Osborne’s chief of staff, is probably on the money.
Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says we were promised “strong and stable”, and we were promised a Brexit vote. This government is an embarrassment. Will there be a vote next week?
Smartest move from TM today would be to promise to step down next year once the UK has left the EU
May says the vote will be announced in the normal way.
It is worth remembering that, after Jacob Rees-Mogg failed three weeks ago to trigger a confidence vote in Theresa May, he started arguing that Tory MPs needed to remove her because otherwise she would lead them into the next election. That seemed to amount to an admission that the number of MPs who object to her because she is an electoral liability is larger than the number who object to her because of her Brexit strategy.
Blackford says the government is in contempt of parliament. “This government is a farce.” May should do the right thing and resign.
The Tory Reform Group, which represents liberal Conservatives and claims to be the largest membership group within the party, has put out a statement backing Theresa May. It says:
May says she is being respectful of the views raised in the Commons. Because of the backstop concerns, she is going back to the EU.
This is a critical time for our country. It should not be about the Conservative party, but about our national interest, implementing the decision taken on June 23 and taking our country forward.
May says MPs need to address the problem of cyber-bullying. She says the Scottish government has a programme addressing this. The UK government will continue to work on it.
MPs voting tonight must think carefully before casting their ballot. Our party is, and must be, about more than Brexit - our country will not forgive us if we forget that.
Corbyn says May has failed to rule out no deal. He says a former minister says a customs union with the EU could be the basis for consensus. When will she work to find one?
With the very real prospect of a hard-left Corbyn government, now is the time for unity.
May says one group that does not want a consensus is Labour. They have no plan, and want no Brexit.
We urge our parliamentary colleagues to support the prime minister.
Corbyn says the time for dithering and delay is over. May has negotiated a deal. There can be no more excuses. She must put it before parliament, and let’s have the vote. He says May has already been found to be in contempt of parliament. Will she call the vote and halt this “escalating crisis”?
Another reader question.
May says, whatever U-turn comes next in Labour’s policy, Corbyn will sent out his henchmen to reveal it to the world - the “inconstant gardener”. Someone will explain the joke to Corbyn later, she says.
Hello Ed and Andrew, and if May sees off this challenge would it be safe to say that the ERG's influence and potential have been greatly weakened?
Tories cheer loudly.
Only up to a point. There will still be 50-odd ERG MPs all set to vote against her Brexit deal.
May says Corbyn couldn’t care less about Brexit. He wants to bring down the government, sow division and crash the economy. The biggest threat to people isn’t leaving the EU; it’s a Corbyn government.
Here is the timing of today’s proceedings.
Corbyn, raising his voice, says this is disgraceful. The house agreed a date for a vote. The government has already been found to be in contempt of parliament. Now May is contemptuous of parliament.
5pm: Theresa May will address the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs
He says May set out her negotiating objectives in the Lancaster House speech. She promised “certainty” wherever possible. Does this look like certainty?
6pm: The ballot will open.
May says she has provided that. She has got an agreement. No one in the EU was left in any doubt about feelings in the Commons. Corbyn’s policy is to stay in the EU, she clams.
8pm: The ballot will close
Corbyn says, if there is a deal, May should put it to a vote. He asks May to categorically rule out a no-deal Brexit.
9pm: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, will first inform the prime minister of the result and then announce the result to MPs and the press, followed by the numbers on either side
May says the way to ensure there is no no-deal is to agree a deal. She says Labour wants to change the law so that trade unions in this country can go on strike in solidarity with strikers anywhere in the world. That is not solidarity with small businesses, or ordinary working people.
At a briefing, Brady told reporters that the threshold for confidence letters had clearly been exceeded during the course of yesterday, but described the situation as “fluid” and gave a strong hint that confidence letters had been withdrawn as well as submitted.
Jeremy Corbyn joins the PM in condemning the Strasbourg attack.
He said he informed the prime minister at 9.30pm last night, once she returned from Brussels and it became clear that those who had submitted the letters “reflects the current intention”.
Having told the media this morning that she has made progress, can she tell MPs what changes she has secured to her deal?
Brady said he had spoken to the PM to consult with her about the timing of the confidence vote and she had expressed a desire for it to happen as soon as possible. They agreed the confidence vote should be announced before the markets opened.
May says she went to Europe because she has been listening to the concerns of MPs. She says Corbyn couldn’t care less what she brings back from Brussels. He is going to vote against it anyway. All he wants to do is create chaos in our society and damage to the economy.
Brady said he had no qualms about holding the contest so quickly and said it was in accordance with the rules. He said given that colleagues were mostly in Westminster this week, expecting to be voting on the Brexit deal, he saw no reason to delay.
Corbyn says it is clear: “Nothing has changed.”
Those who are not in Westminster must email him with an agreed proxy by 4pm. Brady himself will check the ballot, along with two other officers of the 1922, Dame Cheryl Gillan and Charles Walker.
If May needed any clarification about the backstop, she could have just asked the attorney general. He says it will last indefinitely.
It is still not immediately clear what the numbers are – but the prime minister must secure 50% +1 of the MPs taking the Conservative whip. Brady said he was in conversation with the chief whip, Julian Smith, about the status of the two MPs who are suspended from the party - Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths.
He says, since May has not secured any changes to the deal, will May confirm the rest of the Brexit debate will take place before the Christmas recess.
The ballot paper will have two options: I have confidence in the prime minister, or, I do not have confidence in the prime minister.
May says there is an EU council meeting, and further discussions to be held. The date of the vote will be announced in the normal way. There has been a meaningful vote. It was in 2016. And if Corbyn wants a meaningful date, she will give him one - 29 March, when the UK will leave.
If a leadership contest is triggered, Brady said he hoped the parliamentary proceedings where MPs whittle the candidates down to two, could be completed by the Christmas recess. The vote by party members is still unclear, and timing will be dictated by the postal vote rules of the Electoral Reform Society and the Conservative party executive. That executive is meeting tomorrow.
Labour’s Kerry McCarthy says May said there would be no election in 2017, and that there would be a vote on Brexit on Tuesday. Can she now rule out a general election and a people’s vote?
Another business organisation has followed the BCC (see 10.04am) in expressing alarm at what is happening at Westminster. This is from Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors.
May says she is ruling those out.
The last thing businesses needed today was even more uncertainty – and yet politics has managed to deliver on that once again.
A further 22 MPs have declared on Twitter that they will be voting for May in tonight’s vote. This takes the total of Tory MPs backing the prime minister on Twitter to 121 (in an earlier list we incorrectly included a former MP Ben Howlett)
Many business leaders, along with the rest of the country, will be tearing their hair out at the state of Westminster politics at the moment.
We are edging closer and closer to no deal as a result of constant can-kicking and internal domestic political strife.
Politics is politics, and we will have to let this run its course. But whatever the outcome, cool heads must prevail. Ensuring economic stability and certainty in the months ahead should be priority number one for all politicians.
I’m going to try to answer questions posted BTL. Here goes.
@Andrew-what happens to Brexit? Is it more or less likely it can be stopped/A50 withdrawn//PeoplesVote?
If May loses tonight, my assessment is that a no-deal Brexit becomes even more likely. (See 11.08am.)
But if Boris Johnson were to become Tory leader (which is unlikely, because although he is popular with members, MPs distrust him, and there is no guarantee he would make it onto the final two shortlist), there are several MPs who have said they would no longer be happy to remain in the party.
The DUP would back a Johnson-led government in a confidence vote. But if eight or so Tory were so horrified by the idea that they were willing to abandon their party and vote against, then in those circumstances you can start to imagine the government losing a no-confidence vote and an election taking place.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves ...
The most striking claim in Theresa May’s statement earlier was that, if Tory MPs replace her as leader, Brexit will be delayed. (See 9.07am.)
But is this true?
First, May said that, because a leadership contest would take so long, there was a risk of parliament taking control of the process. She said:
A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.
This is questionable. It would be hard to conclude a leadership contest involving a ballot of party members by 21 January, but Owen Paterson, the Brexiter former cabinet minister, told the Today programme this morning that a contest could be wrapped up by mid January. And the 21 January deadline, set down in the EU Withdrawal Act, only applies if the government has not negotiated a withdrawal agreement. Commons officials argue that, since the government has told parliament an agreement has been reached, that deadline is no longer valid. What happens if a new government comes along and says the agreement is no longer valid is not clear.
(This is the deadline that says, in the event of there being no deal, MPs should get a “meaningful vote”. But, even if that deadline does apply legally, whether that vote would allow parliament to take control of the Brexit negotiations, is also highly questionable. As Sir David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, told MPs recently, ministers can just ignore a non-statutory vote.)
Then May said that a new leader would have to ask for an extension of article 50 to allow time for a new renegotiation. She said:
The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it.
But this assumes that the new party leader will want to negotiate a new deal. It is possible that this is the case but, given the views of Conservative party members, it is probably much more likely that a contest would result in the party being led by someone committed to a no-deal Brexit - either as their first choice or as the alternative if the EU does not give in to their fresh demands.
In a survey at the beginning of the month, when Conservative members were offered a choice of Brexit options, no deal came top in a ConservativeHome survey, with 34% support.
In another survey a few days later no deal was on 50%. As ConservativeHome reported:
Faced with a narrower field of May’s deal, a renegotiation attempt, no deal, another referendum, or cancelling Brexit, just over 50 per cent of respondents backed ‘no deal’. This compares with just under a quarter favouring a renegotiation attempt and just 16 per cent the prime minister’s proposals.
Remember, these are the people who will elect the new leader.
It is also worth remembering that Boris Johnson, the current favourite among the membership (see 10am), has in the past advocated a Trump-style approach to Brexit. (“There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos.”) There are leading candidates who voted remain but, as the New Statesman reports, people like Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt have reportedly started to say they favour “a managed no deal” - which basically means a no deal.
It is conceivable that electing a new leader could lead to Brexit being delayed. But it seems much more likely that, if May loses her vote tonight, a no-deal Brexit will become even more likely than it already is.
Michael Fabricant, a Tory Brexiter, has said he has not decided how he will vote tonight. He said:
I did not submit a letter to the 1922 and the timing of this vote is unfortunate as the prime minister has not completed her round of visits with EU leaders to resolve the Irish backstop question.
I had already explained to the prime minister at the beginning of last week in a one-to-one that the Irish backstop causes the biggest problem for me. I hope she has found a solution or an alternative way forward. If not, the government could fall anyway as Northern Irish DUP MPs have said they will no longer support the government in the House of Commons.
All these factors will be weighing in my mind when I cast my vote this evening.
And here are the four Tory MPs who have put messages on Twitter saying they will vote against Theresa May.
Andrea Jenkyns
I take it that those cabinet ministers defending the PM this morning, will not put their name in to succeed her if there is a leadership election? I hope colleagues will vote the right way this evening. It is time that we had a new leader to save Brexit, and unite our country.
Bernard Jenkin
The UK changed Prime Minister in May 1940 - in the middle of a monstrously greater national crisis than this. If it has to be done, it has to be done. @conservatives
James Duddridge
I can not see how the PM can limp on with 48 of her own back benches having no confidence in her. She may go directly following the vote due to losing or in the days after because she has lost authority and a majority to govern.
Nadine Dorries
If MPs with small majorities vote to keep the Prime Minister tonight, they will be voting to secure her in place for the next 12 months, which means she will very likely lead us into the next General Election. Labour will be hoping and praying that we all wimp out.
And Anne-Marie Trevelyan is not saying:
My statement on this evening's vote:https://t.co/kWXg4g4y3s
Rory Stewart
Kevin Hollinrake
Jake Berry
Liz Truss
Chris Skidmore
James Heappey
Julian Knight
Ed Vaizey
Marcus Jones
Guy Opperman
Huw Merriman
Helen Grant
Jeremy Lefroy
Robert Halfon
Vicky Ford
Alok Sharma
Craig Whittaker
Heidi Allen
Nick Hurd
Steve Brine
Luke Hall
Bim Afolami
Matt Warman
Michael Gove
Mary Robinson
Caroline Spelman
Andrea Leadsom
Simon Hoare
Alan Mak
Michael Ellis
Mims Davies
Alistair Burt
Nick Boles
Margot James
Justin Tomlinson
David Lidington
Andrew Stephenson
Liam Fox
Bob Neill
Amber Rudd
Sarah Wollaston
Alan Duncan
David Mundell
Damian Hinds
Mark Lancaster
Alec Shelbrooke
Robin Walker
Alun Cairns
Mark Spencer
Greg Clark
Penny Mordaunt
Matt Hancock
Kit Malthouse
Philip Hammond
Paul Scully
David Gauke
Patrick McLoughlin
Richard Harrington
Alex Chalk
Maria Miller
Amber Rudd
Stephen Hammond
Andrew Murrison
James Cleverly
Nadhim Zahawi
Nick Gibb
James Brokenshire
Therese Coffey
Jeremy Hunt
Brandon Lewis
Sarah Newton
Stephen Crabb
Robert Buckland
Mel Stride
Jesse Norman
Victoria Prentis
Sam Gyimah
John Howell
Jonathan Djanogly
Kelly Tolhurst
Damian Green
Geoffrey Cox
Caroline Nokes
Tobias Ellwood
Nigel Huddleston
Adam Afriyie
Peter Heaton-Jones
John Glen
Julian Smith
Oliver Letwin
Gavin Williamson
Philip Lee
Jo Churchill
George Freeman
David Warburton
Rebecca Pow
Kevin Foster retweeted constituents messages of support for the PM
Antoinette Sandbach
Michelle Donelan
Update: 14 more Conservative MPs have tweeted their support for May (apologies for including former MP Ben Howlett in the list above).
Leo Docherty
Leo Docherty
Anna Soubry
Anna Soubry
Nicholas Soames
Nick Soames
Mark Prisk
Mark Prisk
Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa
Wendy Morton
Wendy Morton
Andrew Bowie
Andrew Bowie
Tom Tugendhat
Tom Tugendhat
Paul Masterton
Paul Masterton
Kirstene Hair
Oliver Heald
Oliver Heald
Chris Heaton-Harris
Chris Heaton-Harris
James Cartlidge
James Cartlidge
According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have now publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote.
Kirstene Hair
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this.
Rachel MacClean
Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. There are officers from the 1922 Committee there and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen.
Amanda Milling
On Sky News Crispin Blunt, one of the Conservative MPs who has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote, has said that he does not accept Theresa May’s argument that replacing her as party leader would lead to Brexit being delayed. (See 9.07am.) He said that, with article 50 triggered and the EU Withdrawal Act passed into law, Brexit is going to happen on 29 March anyway.
Stuart Andrew
David Cameron is backing his successor.
Alex Burghart
I hope Conservative MPs will back the PM in the vote today. We need no distractions from seeking the best outcome with our neighbours, friends and partners in the EU.
Robert Jenrick
Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses were watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said:
Jackie Doyle-Price
At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country.
Caroline Dinenage
The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on.
Iain Stewart
History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods.
Theresa May starts by saying the thoughts of MPs are with those affected by the Strasbourg attack.
Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order.
Today she will have meetings - “possibly many meetings” - with colleagues, she says – adopting the usual stock formula.
This is from Jackson Carlaw MSP, acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives while Ruth Davidson is on maternity leave.
Theresa May’s husband, Philip, is in the gallery for PMQs.
Today’s Leadership contest is a self indulgent distraction at a critical time for the country. Conservatives must unite behind @theresa_mayShe continues to have my full support.
Noisy cheers as PM enters chamber. Boris Johnson looks on impassive
The ConservativeHome website carries out regular surveys of Conservative party members as to whom they would like to see as the next part leader. For the record, here are their most recent findings, from early November. Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Sajid Javid, the home secretary, were the two favourites.
Theresa May has just arrived in the chamber to loud cheers.
It is only a survey, but these ConservativeHome surveys have a reasonably good record when it comes to indicating how the membership as a whole will vote in party elections.
Here are the MPs down to ask a question.
Prof Tim Bale, an academic who has written a history of the modern Conservative party, has been talking about possible leadership candidates at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this morning. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has posted the highlights on Twitter.
PMQs is starting soon.
Prof Tim Bale - leaver candidate likely to replay May. Boris won't. - Sajid Javid, might be the fresh start- Jeremy Hunt - 'complete opposite to Boris Johnson, looks like he knows what he is doing but not going to inspire anyone'
Normally I do a snap verdict after the May/Corbyn exchanges, but today I’ll wait until the whole session is over. What matters is how May handles the whole session, including questions from her colleagues.
As Tim Bale reminds media this morn - Churchill became leader while Neville chamberlain (who had stepped down) still in place. Chamberlain served in Churchill's cabinet as lord president of the council.
As the old Westminster joke goes, the MPs on the other side are the opposition. It is the ones on your own benches who are the enemy.
Prof Tim Bale's character analysis cont'd- Gove - has an awful lot of respect despite what he did to Boris. Seen to be a serious politician. But think Conservatives will judge his appeal to voters limited. Raab - next tweet
The Brexiter Tory Desmond Swayne is still making up his mind.
Prof Tim Bale character analysis cont'd (Boris, Hunt, Gove in prev tweets) - Raab - he is almost the boring choice of the leaves. He does not seem too risky. Doesn't have track record of betrayal of Gove. If you're looking for someone not to risky, he might be the man
Stop asking!We face a general election because we have no majority and DUP has withdrawn support for PM. So, the question I’m wrestling with is this: Am I confident to have TM lead me into another election?
And Prof Bale on Rudd's chances- she is the candidate who could work with Labour. "She is clearly a good communicator, her one problem is her majority" [in Hastings] (also wd be difficult for remainer to run but could be interim PM)
From the BBC’s Evan Davis
Betting markets give @theresa_may a 77 per cent chance of surviving. Should she fail to get this support, Boris Johnson is now the favourite to replace her as Conservative leader. (Thanks to @GeorgeElek)https://t.co/isFJNQFgbe
