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Theresa May vows to stand down before 2022 election as Tory MPs vote on her future – Politics live Theresa May awaits result of confidence vote – Politics live
(35 minutes later)
Two workmen have just walked past, in overalls and carrying what looked like paint. What is not often appreciated outside this building is how it has become a permanent building site. It’s falling to pieces (literally).
The Irish premier Leo Varadkar and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker have insisted that the Withdrawal Agreement “cannot be reopened or contradicted”. As the Press Association reports, the pair spoke by telephone on Wednesday evening and an Irish government spokesman said “both agreed that the Withdrawal Agreement is a balanced compromise and the best outcome available”. He wen on:
While they agreed to work to provide reassurance to the UK, the agreement cannot be reopened or contradicted.
In the absence of facts, you get ... speculation.
Here are some of the result estimates doing the round.
From Jonathan Isaby, editor of BrexitCentral:
Tory MPs are not for nothing known as the most duplicitous electorate in Christendom. But for what it’s worth, when voting closes at 8pm my guesstimate is that Theresa May will have secured the support of around 170-195 colleagues, with 122-147 against her.
From assorted lobby journalists:
Lobby room 12 sweepstakes. Votes against the PM:@CharlieCooper8: 88@IanDunt: 105@AdamBienkov: 101@TomMcTague: 73@NewsAnnabelle: 106@thepatrickdaly: 95
Theresa May has arrived back in Downing Street. She is not going to be in committee room 14 to hear the result in person.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, said Theresa May had notably “hedged her bets” on whether she might stay on long enough if not ousted to fight the next election. Speaking after the 1922 Committee meeting earlier, he said:
She said that in her heart she would like to fight the 2022 election, but that she recognised the party did not want her to, and therefore it was not her intention to.
But the word ‘intention’ is a classic politician’s words, because intentions can change. She didn’t say, ‘I will not be the leader in 2022,’ she said it was not her intention.
She was asked, if there was an election within the next year, would you stand down, and she mumbled.
Rees-Mogg sought to play down the impact of a narrow May victory.
If you look at the payroll – ministers, PPSs, trade envoys, deputy chairmen of the party – she needs to carry more than half of the genuine backbenchers. If she doesn’t, that shows that the only people really supporting her are people who receive the Queen’s shilling.
Told 100% turnout in no con vote
One minister 'I'd like to punch the ERG in the face - this is our moment to show that they are NOT the Tory party' - their challenge to PM seems to have failed, but they still certainly have numbers to carry on blocking her in Parliament
It should not take long to count 317 ballot papers, but we’ve been told we won’t get the result until 9pm.
May results news: Just been told declaration will be "nine o'clock on the dot" by a member of the '22.
This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby.
Minister texts. Anything over 200 will be painted as a huge triumph because May won he leadership ballot by 199.
That is a reference to the last ballot in 2016. But in that round May had two opponents - Andrea Leadsom, who got 84 votes, and Michael Gove, who got 46.
Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, has arrived for the count.
They are going to let the journalists into the room for the result. Colleagues are queueing up already.
The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope reveals that different sources say different things ... (See 7.47pm.)
BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
Gavin Williamson comes past. He went in to vote a few minutes ago.Gavin Williamson comes past. He went in to vote a few minutes ago.
Defence secretary @GavinWilliamson casts what appears to be the last vote. “I think I’ll vote for the prime minister," he tells reporters. Let the counting begin.Defence secretary @GavinWilliamson casts what appears to be the last vote. “I think I’ll vote for the prime minister," he tells reporters. Let the counting begin.
I’m back in the committee corridor in the Commons, and we’ve got about five minutes to go before the ballot closes. I can’t see any MPs rushing to vote, but there are 50 plus journalists here.I’m back in the committee corridor in the Commons, and we’ve got about five minutes to go before the ballot closes. I can’t see any MPs rushing to vote, but there are 50 plus journalists here.
This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.
I have spoken to four informed MPs tonight wandering around the House of Commons. They all said 100 MPs to 120 MPs to vote against Theresa May tonight. Enough to damage her severely going into the EU talks tomorrow. Result in an hour's time. #toryleadershipI have spoken to four informed MPs tonight wandering around the House of Commons. They all said 100 MPs to 120 MPs to vote against Theresa May tonight. Enough to damage her severely going into the EU talks tomorrow. Result in an hour's time. #toryleadership
Theresa May met the DUP leader Arlene Foster and her deputy, Nigel Dodds, earlier this evening. Afterwards Foster said the DUP was demanding “fundamental legal text changes” to the withdrawal agreement. She said: Theresa May met the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, and her deputy, Nigel Dodds, earlier this evening. Afterwards Foster said the DUP was demanding “fundamental legal text changes” to the withdrawal agreement. She said:
We emphasised that tinkering around the edges would not work.We emphasised that tinkering around the edges would not work.
We were not seeking assurances or promises. We wanted fundamental legal text changes.We were not seeking assurances or promises. We wanted fundamental legal text changes.
EU leaders have repeatedly said that they are not willing to change the withdrawal agreement in this way.EU leaders have repeatedly said that they are not willing to change the withdrawal agreement in this way.
Following the decision to restore the whip to Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths, there are now 317 Conservative MPs.Following the decision to restore the whip to Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths, there are now 317 Conservative MPs.
The BBC has counted 187 Tory MPs saying they will vote for Theresa May. The Telegraph has got 174 in that category, and we got to the tally up to 169.The BBC has counted 187 Tory MPs saying they will vote for Theresa May. The Telegraph has got 174 in that category, and we got to the tally up to 169.
But relatively few MPs have said publicly that they will vote against May. The BBC list has got the most names, but only 35.But relatively few MPs have said publicly that they will vote against May. The BBC list has got the most names, but only 35.
Given that, in the era of Twitter, it is very easy for MPs to declare publicly that they are backing May, these figures suggest that there are around 100 odd MPs who could have explicitly said they will support May but have chosen not to. Even if every MP who has said they will vote for May does vote for her (which is unlikely), there is a pool of around 130/140 votes that could easily be hostile.Given that, in the era of Twitter, it is very easy for MPs to declare publicly that they are backing May, these figures suggest that there are around 100 odd MPs who could have explicitly said they will support May but have chosen not to. Even if every MP who has said they will vote for May does vote for her (which is unlikely), there is a pool of around 130/140 votes that could easily be hostile.
As is usually the case in these elections, both sides have been playing expectation management. Here are some of the figures being discussed.As is usually the case in these elections, both sides have been playing expectation management. Here are some of the figures being discussed.
80 MPs vote against May80 MPs vote against May
The Brexiters have been claiming that this would amount to an acceptable result for them, and a bad result for her. This is from the Mail’s Jack Doyle.The Brexiters have been claiming that this would amount to an acceptable result for them, and a bad result for her. This is from the Mail’s Jack Doyle.
The expectation management game begins. PM’s opponents say 80 the critical number. If 80 rebels, they say, PM has lost majority of non payroll vote.The expectation management game begins. PM’s opponents say 80 the critical number. If 80 rebels, they say, PM has lost majority of non payroll vote.
But 80 is not much bigger than the European Research Group core, which is normally put at around 50 or 60. (They are coy about their membership, and so a precise figure is not available.)But 80 is not much bigger than the European Research Group core, which is normally put at around 50 or 60. (They are coy about their membership, and so a precise figure is not available.)
Sky’s Beth Rigby says the May team would be happy with a result like this.Sky’s Beth Rigby says the May team would be happy with a result like this.
Numbers watch. Lots of expectation management going on. If May keeps no confidence down to 80/90, o reckon her team would be delighted. A vote against her heading to 120/130 would be bad news. Suggests she’s losing support of centre-ground MPs tooNumbers watch. Lots of expectation management going on. If May keeps no confidence down to 80/90, o reckon her team would be delighted. A vote against her heading to 120/130 would be bad news. Suggests she’s losing support of centre-ground MPs too
100 MPs vote against May100 MPs vote against May
Given that there are likely to be some spoilt ballot papers, if the anti-May vote is at this level, then her vote will be close to or below 200 - which could turn out to be a psychologically comforting number.Given that there are likely to be some spoilt ballot papers, if the anti-May vote is at this level, then her vote will be close to or below 200 - which could turn out to be a psychologically comforting number.
This would still be a comfortable win, but it would be hard to present this a triumph. One precedent for tonight’s vote is the Conservative leadership contest in 1995, when John Major unexpectedly called a contest and John Redwood stood against him. Major got 218 votes (66%) and Redwood 89 (27%). Tonight’s ballot is a confidence vote, not a leadership contest, but the numbers might fall in similar ways. If May’s critics get more than 86 votes tonight, they will be doing better than Redwood in 1995. On the night that was seen as a clear victory for Major, but for the rest of his premiership his authority was diminished. “Weaker than John Major” is not a label any PM would covet.This would still be a comfortable win, but it would be hard to present this a triumph. One precedent for tonight’s vote is the Conservative leadership contest in 1995, when John Major unexpectedly called a contest and John Redwood stood against him. Major got 218 votes (66%) and Redwood 89 (27%). Tonight’s ballot is a confidence vote, not a leadership contest, but the numbers might fall in similar ways. If May’s critics get more than 86 votes tonight, they will be doing better than Redwood in 1995. On the night that was seen as a clear victory for Major, but for the rest of his premiership his authority was diminished. “Weaker than John Major” is not a label any PM would covet.
130 MPs vote against May130 MPs vote against May
It will be hard to present this as anything other than a very bad result for May, although she will still be the clear winner, and will be able to remain as PM. Here is Robert Peston’s take.It will be hard to present this as anything other than a very bad result for May, although she will still be the clear winner, and will be able to remain as PM. Here is Robert Peston’s take.
Here is how to interpret no-confidence result. 130 votes against @theresa_may, she is in dire trouble. 100 against “nothing has changed”. 80 against “strong and stable” (ish).Here is how to interpret no-confidence result. 130 votes against @theresa_may, she is in dire trouble. 100 against “nothing has changed”. 80 against “strong and stable” (ish).
159 MPs vote against May159 MPs vote against May
This is the number that would mean May has lost, assuming every Conservative MP votes (which they probably won’t). At this point the party is looking for a new leader.This is the number that would mean May has lost, assuming every Conservative MP votes (which they probably won’t). At this point the party is looking for a new leader.
This is from the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey.This is from the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey.
Speculation outside committee room 14 that it might be a "100 per cent turnout" with 70 per cent of Tory MPs thought to have voted alreadySpeculation outside committee room 14 that it might be a "100 per cent turnout" with 70 per cent of Tory MPs thought to have voted already
This is from the Mail’s Jack Doyle.
Michael Gove predicts the PM will ‘win and win handsomely’ asked what numbers that meant he said ‘I studied English, not maths’.
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, refused to say how he had voted as he left the committee room.
And Charlie Elphicke also refused to say how he had voted, although he said he was pleased to have the Tory party whip restored.
But Sarah Wollaston, a pro-European who wants Theresa May to agree to a second referendum, posted a picture of her ballot paper on Twitter to show she was supporting May.
pic.twitter.com/0gWwnjwzQ6
This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley.
Hearing the PM rebuked the chancellor after he described some Brexiteers as extremists.Source said she told room: “There are no extremists here”
This is from Channel 4 News’ Michael Crick.
On the last three occasions a Conservative leader has faced a serious challenge like this one - Heath (1975), Thatcher (1990) and IDS (2003) - the vote against the leader was significantly higher than experts had forecast
Piecing together the various accounts of what Theresa May told the 1922 Committee, it is now becoming clear what she said. But it has taken a while. (“Typical May,” a colleague says. “She tries to deliver a message, but no one can agree what she said.”)
May told MPs clearly that she would not fight the general election in 2022. Because she has repeatedly ruled out calling a snap general election, in her mind this is the next general election.
As for what might happen if there were an election before 2022, on that she was non-committal. An MP in the room said she made the point that she would then be asked to commit to standing down in 2021, or in 2020, or even next year.
So, if there were to be an early election, it is possible she could still seek to lead her party into it.
But the commitment to go before a 2022 election did make an impact, the MP said. “It was much more clear than the briefing you guys were given earlier,” he said. “It did make a difference.”
Asked what the mood in the room was like when Mrs May said she wouldn't stand again in 2022, Liz Truss said: "There was some regret but I think people understand that's the case."
It is becoming clear that, when Theresa May said she would not fight the next general election, there was a bit of wriggle room in her pledge. These are from ITV’s Robert Peston.
OK. Multiple MP sources saying @theresa_may was “unambiguously clear” she will not fight next election. “That will help” said one influential MP
This is getting slightly ridiculous. Another Tory MP says @theresa_may committed only to going before 2022 if election then - but would not rule out leading party into a possible “snap” election in coming year! “We’ve got her for another three years!” was the heartfelt cry
From the Conservative MP Bob Seely
PM did well enough. Some hostile questions but overwhelming mood supportive. Very strongly suspect she will survive.
From the Conservative MP Robert Halfon.
In #1922Committee told PM, that despite my differences with her over the #EUDeal, I would be supporting her in the vote this evening, and asked her to pledge that social justice would be number one priority for Government once Brexit sorted. PM made that pledge. https://t.co/fMZQWSRqua
Tory MPs leaving the 1922 Committee Meeting confirm there was no announcement in next week’s business of the meaningful vote being brought to the Commons. “It could yet be next week but more likely in January,” confides a DExEU source.