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| Theresa May says new PM would have to delay Brexit if she loses confidence vote – politics live | Theresa May says new PM would have to delay Brexit if she loses confidence vote – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, has been speaking at an event today where an alternative Brexit plan was launched. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has been tweeting some key points. | |
| NEW David Davis refuses to say how he will vote but hints it will be against May. "I’ll cast my vote this evening in the national interest and what I judge to be the national interest, that means we must have a reset of negotiations, and a reset that protects the integrity" | |
| NEW David Davis - May's EU deal is "dead""I think she and the EU will understand now that this proposal is dead and they have to come with an alternative." | |
| Retweet this summary of David Davis 10 year extendable backstop - deleted earlier post pic.twitter.com/MbBcywXqzP | |
| Another reader’s question. | |
| Can Her Majesty dissolve this parliament and install Jeremy Corben as Caretaker PM awaiting a General Election, just as she did with the democratically-elected Whitlam government of Australia on Rememrance Day, 1975? | |
| No. | |
| (I think the consensus now is that the removal of Whitlam in those circumstances was a mistake. But it is not to going to happen in the UK now.) | |
| This, from Rupert Harrison, who used to be George Osborne’s chief of staff, is probably on the money. | |
| Smartest move from TM today would be to promise to step down next year once the UK has left the EU | |
| It is worth remembering that, after Jacob Rees-Mogg failed three weeks ago to trigger a confidence vote in Theresa May, he started arguing that Tory MPs needed to remove her because otherwise she would lead them into the next election. That seemed to amount to an admission that the number of MPs who object to her because she is an electoral liability is larger than the number who object to her because of her Brexit strategy. | |
| The Tory Reform Group, which represents liberal Conservatives and claims to be the largest membership group within the party, has put out a statement backing Theresa May. It says: | |
| This is a critical time for our country. It should not be about the Conservative party, but about our national interest, implementing the decision taken on June 23 and taking our country forward. | |
| MPs voting tonight must think carefully before casting their ballot. Our party is, and must be, about more than Brexit - our country will not forgive us if we forget that. | |
| With the very real prospect of a hard-left Corbyn government, now is the time for unity. | |
| We urge our parliamentary colleagues to support the prime minister. | |
| Another reader question. | |
| Hello Ed and Andrew, and if May sees off this challenge would it be safe to say that the ERG's influence and potential have been greatly weakened? | |
| Only up to a point. There will still be 50-odd ERG MPs all set to vote against her Brexit deal. | |
| Here is the timing of today’s proceedings. | |
| 5pm: Theresa May will address the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs | |
| 6pm: The ballot will open. | |
| 8pm: The ballot will close | |
| 9pm: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, will first inform the prime minister of the result and then announce the result to MPs and the press, followed by the numbers on either side | |
| At a briefing, Brady told reporters that the threshold for confidence letters had clearly been exceeded during the course of yesterday, but described the situation as “fluid” and gave a strong hint that confidence letters had been withdrawn as well as submitted. | |
| He said he informed the prime minister at 9.30pm last night, once she returned from Brussels and it became clear that those who had submitted the letters “reflects the current intention”. | |
| Brady said he had spoken to the PM to consult with her about the timing of the confidence vote and she had expressed a desire for it to happen as soon as possible. They agreed the confidence vote should be announced before the markets opened. | |
| Brady said he had no qualms about holding the contest so quickly and said it was in accordance with the rules. He said given that colleagues were mostly in Westminster this week, expecting to be voting on the Brexit deal, he saw no reason to delay. | |
| Those who are not in Westminster must email him with an agreed proxy by 4pm. Brady himself will check the ballot, along with two other officers of the 1922, Dame Cheryl Gillan and Charles Walker. | |
| It is still not immediately clear what the numbers are – but the prime minister must secure 50% +1 of the MPs taking the Conservative whip. Brady said he was in conversation with the chief whip, Julian Smith, about the status of the two MPs who are suspended from the party - Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths. | |
| The ballot paper will have two options: I have confidence in the prime minister, or, I do not have confidence in the prime minister. | |
| If a leadership contest is triggered, Brady said he hoped the parliamentary proceedings where MPs whittle the candidates down to two, could be completed by the Christmas recess. The vote by party members is still unclear, and timing will be dictated by the postal vote rules of the Electoral Reform Society and the Conservative party executive. That executive is meeting tomorrow. | |
| Another business organisation has followed the BCC (see 10.04am) in expressing alarm at what is happening at Westminster. This is from Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors. | |
| The last thing businesses needed today was even more uncertainty – and yet politics has managed to deliver on that once again. | |
| Many business leaders, along with the rest of the country, will be tearing their hair out at the state of Westminster politics at the moment. | |
| We are edging closer and closer to no deal as a result of constant can-kicking and internal domestic political strife. | |
| Politics is politics, and we will have to let this run its course. But whatever the outcome, cool heads must prevail. Ensuring economic stability and certainty in the months ahead should be priority number one for all politicians. | |
| I’m going to try to answer questions posted BTL. Here goes. | |
| @Andrew-what happens to Brexit? Is it more or less likely it can be stopped/A50 withdrawn//PeoplesVote? | |
| If May loses tonight, my assessment is that a no-deal Brexit becomes even more likely. (See 11.08am.) | |
| But if Boris Johnson were to become Tory leader (which is unlikely, because although he is popular with members, MPs distrust him, and there is no guarantee he would make it onto the final two shortlist), there are several MPs who have said they would no longer be happy to remain in the party. | |
| The DUP would back a Johnson-led government in a confidence vote. But if eight or so Tory were so horrified by the idea that they were willing to abandon their party and vote against, then in those circumstances you can start to imagine the government losing a no-confidence vote and an election taking place. | |
| But we are getting ahead of ourselves ... | |
| The most striking claim in Theresa May’s statement earlier was that, if Tory MPs replace her as leader, Brexit will be delayed. (See 9.07am.) | The most striking claim in Theresa May’s statement earlier was that, if Tory MPs replace her as leader, Brexit will be delayed. (See 9.07am.) |
| But is this true? | But is this true? |
| First, May said that, because a leadership contest would take so long, there was a risk of parliament taking control of the process. She said: | First, May said that, because a leadership contest would take so long, there was a risk of parliament taking control of the process. She said: |
| A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament. | A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament. |
| This is questionable. It would be hard to conclude a leadership contest involving a ballot of party members by 21 January, but Owen Paterson, the Brexiter former cabinet minister, told the Today programme this morning that a contest could be wrapped up by mid January. And the 21 January deadline, set down in the EU Withdrawal Act, only applies if the government has not negotiated a withdrawal agreement. Commons officials argue that, since the government has told parliament an agreement has been reached, that deadline is no longer valid. What happens if a new government comes along and says the agreement is no longer valid is not clear. | This is questionable. It would be hard to conclude a leadership contest involving a ballot of party members by 21 January, but Owen Paterson, the Brexiter former cabinet minister, told the Today programme this morning that a contest could be wrapped up by mid January. And the 21 January deadline, set down in the EU Withdrawal Act, only applies if the government has not negotiated a withdrawal agreement. Commons officials argue that, since the government has told parliament an agreement has been reached, that deadline is no longer valid. What happens if a new government comes along and says the agreement is no longer valid is not clear. |
| (This is the deadline that says, in the event of there being no deal, MPs should get a “meaningful vote”. But, even if that deadline does apply legally, whether that vote would allow parliament to take control of the Brexit negotiations, is also highly questionable. As Sir David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, told MPs recently, ministers can just ignore a non-statutory vote.) | (This is the deadline that says, in the event of there being no deal, MPs should get a “meaningful vote”. But, even if that deadline does apply legally, whether that vote would allow parliament to take control of the Brexit negotiations, is also highly questionable. As Sir David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, told MPs recently, ministers can just ignore a non-statutory vote.) |
| Then May said that a new leader would have to ask for an extension of article 50 to allow time for a new renegotiation. She said: | Then May said that a new leader would have to ask for an extension of article 50 to allow time for a new renegotiation. She said: |
| The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it. | The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it. |
| But this assumes that the new party leader will want to negotiate a new deal. It is possible that this is the case but, given the views of Conservative party members, it is probably much more likely that a contest would result in the party being led by someone committed to a no-deal Brexit - either as their first choice or as the alternative if the EU does not give in to their fresh demands. | But this assumes that the new party leader will want to negotiate a new deal. It is possible that this is the case but, given the views of Conservative party members, it is probably much more likely that a contest would result in the party being led by someone committed to a no-deal Brexit - either as their first choice or as the alternative if the EU does not give in to their fresh demands. |
| In a survey at the beginning of the month, when Conservative members were offered a choice of Brexit options, no deal came top in a ConservativeHome survey, with 34% support. | In a survey at the beginning of the month, when Conservative members were offered a choice of Brexit options, no deal came top in a ConservativeHome survey, with 34% support. |
| In another survey a few days later no deal was on 50%. As ConservativeHome reported: | In another survey a few days later no deal was on 50%. As ConservativeHome reported: |
| Faced with a narrower field of May’s deal, a renegotiation attempt, no deal, another referendum, or cancelling Brexit, just over 50 per cent of respondents backed ‘no deal’. This compares with just under a quarter favouring a renegotiation attempt and just 16 per cent the prime minister’s proposals. | Faced with a narrower field of May’s deal, a renegotiation attempt, no deal, another referendum, or cancelling Brexit, just over 50 per cent of respondents backed ‘no deal’. This compares with just under a quarter favouring a renegotiation attempt and just 16 per cent the prime minister’s proposals. |
| Remember, these are the people who will elect the new leader. | Remember, these are the people who will elect the new leader. |
| It is also worth remembering that Boris Johnson, the current favourite among the membership (see 10am), has in the past advocated a Trump-style approach to Brexit. (“There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos.”) There are leading candidates who voted remain but, as the New Statesman reports, people like Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt have reportedly started to say they favour “a managed no deal” - which basically means a no deal. | It is also worth remembering that Boris Johnson, the current favourite among the membership (see 10am), has in the past advocated a Trump-style approach to Brexit. (“There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos.”) There are leading candidates who voted remain but, as the New Statesman reports, people like Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt have reportedly started to say they favour “a managed no deal” - which basically means a no deal. |
| It is conceivable that electing a new leader could lead to Brexit being delayed. But it seems much more likely that, if May loses her vote tonight, a no-deal Brexit will become even more likely than it already is. | It is conceivable that electing a new leader could lead to Brexit being delayed. But it seems much more likely that, if May loses her vote tonight, a no-deal Brexit will become even more likely than it already is. |
| Michael Fabricant, a Tory Brexiter, has said he has not decided how he will vote tonight. He said: | Michael Fabricant, a Tory Brexiter, has said he has not decided how he will vote tonight. He said: |
| I did not submit a letter to the 1922 and the timing of this vote is unfortunate as the prime minister has not completed her round of visits with EU leaders to resolve the Irish backstop question. | I did not submit a letter to the 1922 and the timing of this vote is unfortunate as the prime minister has not completed her round of visits with EU leaders to resolve the Irish backstop question. |
| I had already explained to the prime minister at the beginning of last week in a one-to-one that the Irish backstop causes the biggest problem for me. I hope she has found a solution or an alternative way forward. If not, the government could fall anyway as Northern Irish DUP MPs have said they will no longer support the government in the House of Commons. | I had already explained to the prime minister at the beginning of last week in a one-to-one that the Irish backstop causes the biggest problem for me. I hope she has found a solution or an alternative way forward. If not, the government could fall anyway as Northern Irish DUP MPs have said they will no longer support the government in the House of Commons. |
| All these factors will be weighing in my mind when I cast my vote this evening. | All these factors will be weighing in my mind when I cast my vote this evening. |
| And here are the four Tory MPs who have put messages on Twitter saying they will vote against Theresa May. | And here are the four Tory MPs who have put messages on Twitter saying they will vote against Theresa May. |
| Andrea Jenkyns | Andrea Jenkyns |
| I take it that those cabinet ministers defending the PM this morning, will not put their name in to succeed her if there is a leadership election? I hope colleagues will vote the right way this evening. It is time that we had a new leader to save Brexit, and unite our country. | I take it that those cabinet ministers defending the PM this morning, will not put their name in to succeed her if there is a leadership election? I hope colleagues will vote the right way this evening. It is time that we had a new leader to save Brexit, and unite our country. |
| Bernard Jenkin | Bernard Jenkin |
| The UK changed Prime Minister in May 1940 - in the middle of a monstrously greater national crisis than this. If it has to be done, it has to be done. @conservatives | The UK changed Prime Minister in May 1940 - in the middle of a monstrously greater national crisis than this. If it has to be done, it has to be done. @conservatives |
| James Duddridge | James Duddridge |
| I can not see how the PM can limp on with 48 of her own back benches having no confidence in her. She may go directly following the vote due to losing or in the days after because she has lost authority and a majority to govern. | I can not see how the PM can limp on with 48 of her own back benches having no confidence in her. She may go directly following the vote due to losing or in the days after because she has lost authority and a majority to govern. |
| Nadine Dorries | Nadine Dorries |
| If MPs with small majorities vote to keep the Prime Minister tonight, they will be voting to secure her in place for the next 12 months, which means she will very likely lead us into the next General Election. Labour will be hoping and praying that we all wimp out. | If MPs with small majorities vote to keep the Prime Minister tonight, they will be voting to secure her in place for the next 12 months, which means she will very likely lead us into the next General Election. Labour will be hoping and praying that we all wimp out. |
| And Anne-Marie Trevelyan is not saying: | And Anne-Marie Trevelyan is not saying: |
| My statement on this evening's vote:https://t.co/kWXg4g4y3s | My statement on this evening's vote:https://t.co/kWXg4g4y3s |
| Rory Stewart | Rory Stewart |
| Kevin Hollinrake | Kevin Hollinrake |
| Jake Berry | Jake Berry |
| Liz Truss | Liz Truss |
| Chris Skidmore | Chris Skidmore |
| James Heappey | James Heappey |
| Julian Knight | Julian Knight |
| Ed Vaizey | Ed Vaizey |
| Marcus Jones | Marcus Jones |
| Guy Opperman | Guy Opperman |
| Huw Merriman | Huw Merriman |
| Helen Grant | Helen Grant |
| Jeremy Lefroy | Jeremy Lefroy |
| Robert Halfon | Robert Halfon |
| Vicky Ford | Vicky Ford |
| Alok Sharma | Alok Sharma |
| Craig Whittaker | Craig Whittaker |
| Heidi Allen | Heidi Allen |
| Nick Hurd | Nick Hurd |
| Steve Brine | Steve Brine |
| Luke Hall | Luke Hall |
| Bim Afolami | Bim Afolami |
| Matt Warman | Matt Warman |
| Michael Gove | Michael Gove |
| Mary Robinson | Mary Robinson |
| Caroline Spelman | Caroline Spelman |
| Andrea Leadsom | Andrea Leadsom |
| Simon Hoare | Simon Hoare |
| Alan Mak | Alan Mak |
| Michael Ellis | Michael Ellis |
| Mims Davies | Mims Davies |
| Alistair Burt | Alistair Burt |
| Nick Boles | Nick Boles |
| Margot James | Margot James |
| Justin Tomlinson | Justin Tomlinson |
| David Lidington | David Lidington |
| Andrew Stephenson | Andrew Stephenson |
| Liam Fox | Liam Fox |
| Bob Neill | Bob Neill |
| Amber Rudd | Amber Rudd |
| Sarah Wollaston | Sarah Wollaston |
| Alan Duncan | Alan Duncan |
| David Mundell | David Mundell |
| Damian Hinds | Damian Hinds |
| Mark Lancaster | Mark Lancaster |
| Alec Shelbrooke | Alec Shelbrooke |
| Robin Walker | Robin Walker |
| Alun Cairns | Alun Cairns |
| Mark Spencer | Mark Spencer |
| Greg Clark | Greg Clark |
| Penny Mordaunt | Penny Mordaunt |
| Matt Hancock | Matt Hancock |
| Kit Malthouse | Kit Malthouse |
| Philip Hammond | Philip Hammond |
| Paul Scully | Paul Scully |
| David Gauke | David Gauke |
| Patrick McLoughlin | Patrick McLoughlin |
| Richard Harrington | Richard Harrington |
| Alex Chalk | Alex Chalk |
| Maria Miller | Maria Miller |
| Amber Rudd | Amber Rudd |
| Stephen Hammond | Stephen Hammond |
| Andrew Murrison | Andrew Murrison |
| James Cleverly | James Cleverly |
| Nadhim Zahawi | Nadhim Zahawi |
| Nick Gibb | Nick Gibb |
| James Brokenshire | James Brokenshire |
| Therese Coffey | Therese Coffey |
| Jeremy Hunt | Jeremy Hunt |
| Brandon Lewis | Brandon Lewis |
| Sarah Newton | Sarah Newton |
| Stephen Crabb | Stephen Crabb |
| Robert Buckland | Robert Buckland |
| Mel Stride | Mel Stride |
| Jesse Norman | Jesse Norman |
| Victoria Prentis | Victoria Prentis |
| Sam Gyimah | Sam Gyimah |
| John Howell | John Howell |
| Jonathan Djanogly | Jonathan Djanogly |
| Kelly Tolhurst | Kelly Tolhurst |
| Damian Green | Damian Green |
| Geoffrey Cox | Geoffrey Cox |
| Caroline Nokes | Caroline Nokes |
| Tobias Ellwood | Tobias Ellwood |
| Nigel Huddleston | Nigel Huddleston |
| Adam Afriyie | Adam Afriyie |
| Peter Heaton-Jones | Peter Heaton-Jones |
| John Glen | John Glen |
| Julian Smith | Julian Smith |
| Oliver Letwin | Oliver Letwin |
| Gavin Williamson | Gavin Williamson |
| Philip Lee | Philip Lee |
| Jo Churchill | Jo Churchill |
| George Freeman | George Freeman |
| David Warburton | David Warburton |
| Rebecca Pow | Rebecca Pow |
| Kevin Foster retweeted constituents messages of support for the PM | Kevin Foster retweeted constituents messages of support for the PM |
| Antoinette Sandbach | Antoinette Sandbach |
| Michelle Donelan | Michelle Donelan |
| Update: 14 more Conservative MPs have tweeted their support for May (apologies for including former MP Ben Howlett in the list above). | |
| Leo Docherty | |
| Anna Soubry | |
| Nicholas Soames | |
| Mark Prisk | |
| Andrew Jones | |
| Alberto Costa | |
| Wendy Morton | |
| Andrew Bowie | |
| Tom Tugendhat | |
| Paul Masterton | |
| Kirstene Hair | |
| Oliver Heald | |
| Chris Heaton-Harris | |
| James Cartlidge | |
| According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have now publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote. | According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have now publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote. |
| Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this. | Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this. |
| Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. There are officers from the 1922 Committee there and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen. | Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. There are officers from the 1922 Committee there and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen. |
| On Sky News Crispin Blunt, one of the Conservative MPs who has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote, has said that he does not accept Theresa May’s argument that replacing her as party leader would lead to Brexit being delayed. (See 9.07am.) He said that, with article 50 triggered and the EU Withdrawal Act passed into law, Brexit is going to happen on 29 March anyway. | On Sky News Crispin Blunt, one of the Conservative MPs who has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote, has said that he does not accept Theresa May’s argument that replacing her as party leader would lead to Brexit being delayed. (See 9.07am.) He said that, with article 50 triggered and the EU Withdrawal Act passed into law, Brexit is going to happen on 29 March anyway. |
| David Cameron is backing his successor. | David Cameron is backing his successor. |
| I hope Conservative MPs will back the PM in the vote today. We need no distractions from seeking the best outcome with our neighbours, friends and partners in the EU. | I hope Conservative MPs will back the PM in the vote today. We need no distractions from seeking the best outcome with our neighbours, friends and partners in the EU. |
| Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses were watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said: | Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses were watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said: |
| At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country. | At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country. |
| The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on. | The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on. |
| History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods. | History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods. |
| Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order. | Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order. |
| This is from Jackson Carlaw MSP, acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives while Ruth Davidson is on maternity leave. | This is from Jackson Carlaw MSP, acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives while Ruth Davidson is on maternity leave. |
| Today’s Leadership contest is a self indulgent distraction at a critical time for the country. Conservatives must unite behind @theresa_mayShe continues to have my full support. | Today’s Leadership contest is a self indulgent distraction at a critical time for the country. Conservatives must unite behind @theresa_mayShe continues to have my full support. |
| The ConservativeHome website carries out regular surveys of Conservative party members as to whom they would like to see as the next part leader. For the record, here are their most recent findings, from early November. Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Sajid Javid, the home secretary, were the two favourites. | The ConservativeHome website carries out regular surveys of Conservative party members as to whom they would like to see as the next part leader. For the record, here are their most recent findings, from early November. Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Sajid Javid, the home secretary, were the two favourites. |
| It is only a survey, but these ConservativeHome surveys have a reasonably good record when it comes to indicating how the membership as a whole will vote in party elections. | It is only a survey, but these ConservativeHome surveys have a reasonably good record when it comes to indicating how the membership as a whole will vote in party elections. |
| Prof Tim Bale, an academic who has written a history of the modern Conservative party, has been talking about possible leadership candidates at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this morning. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has posted the highlights on Twitter. | Prof Tim Bale, an academic who has written a history of the modern Conservative party, has been talking about possible leadership candidates at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this morning. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has posted the highlights on Twitter. |
| Prof Tim Bale - leaver candidate likely to replay May. Boris won't. - Sajid Javid, might be the fresh start- Jeremy Hunt - 'complete opposite to Boris Johnson, looks like he knows what he is doing but not going to inspire anyone' | Prof Tim Bale - leaver candidate likely to replay May. Boris won't. - Sajid Javid, might be the fresh start- Jeremy Hunt - 'complete opposite to Boris Johnson, looks like he knows what he is doing but not going to inspire anyone' |
| As Tim Bale reminds media this morn - Churchill became leader while Neville chamberlain (who had stepped down) still in place. Chamberlain served in Churchill's cabinet as lord president of the council. | As Tim Bale reminds media this morn - Churchill became leader while Neville chamberlain (who had stepped down) still in place. Chamberlain served in Churchill's cabinet as lord president of the council. |
| Prof Tim Bale's character analysis cont'd- Gove - has an awful lot of respect despite what he did to Boris. Seen to be a serious politician. But think Conservatives will judge his appeal to voters limited. Raab - next tweet | Prof Tim Bale's character analysis cont'd- Gove - has an awful lot of respect despite what he did to Boris. Seen to be a serious politician. But think Conservatives will judge his appeal to voters limited. Raab - next tweet |
| Prof Tim Bale character analysis cont'd (Boris, Hunt, Gove in prev tweets) - Raab - he is almost the boring choice of the leaves. He does not seem too risky. Doesn't have track record of betrayal of Gove. If you're looking for someone not to risky, he might be the man | Prof Tim Bale character analysis cont'd (Boris, Hunt, Gove in prev tweets) - Raab - he is almost the boring choice of the leaves. He does not seem too risky. Doesn't have track record of betrayal of Gove. If you're looking for someone not to risky, he might be the man |
| And Prof Bale on Rudd's chances- she is the candidate who could work with Labour. "She is clearly a good communicator, her one problem is her majority" [in Hastings] (also wd be difficult for remainer to run but could be interim PM) | And Prof Bale on Rudd's chances- she is the candidate who could work with Labour. "She is clearly a good communicator, her one problem is her majority" [in Hastings] (also wd be difficult for remainer to run but could be interim PM) |