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Theresa May says new PM would have to delay Brexit if she loses confidence vote – politics live | |
(35 minutes later) | |
The most striking claim in Theresa May’s statement earlier was that, if Tory MPs replace her as leader, Brexit will be delayed. (See 9.07am.) | |
But is this true? | |
First, May said that, because a leadership contest would take so long, there was a risk of parliament taking control of the process. She said: | |
A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament. | |
This is questionable. It would be hard to conclude a leadership contest involving a ballot of party members by 21 January, but Owen Paterson, the Brexiter former cabinet minister, told the Today programme this morning that a contest could be wrapped up by mid January. And the 21 January deadline, set down in the EU Withdrawal Act, only applies if the government has not negotiated a withdrawal agreement. Commons officials argue that, since the government has told parliament an agreement has been reached, that deadline is no longer valid. What happens if a new government comes along and says the agreement is no longer valid is not clear. | |
(This is the deadline that says, in the event of there being no deal, MPs should get a “meaningful vote”. But, even if that deadline does apply legally, whether that vote would allow parliament to take control of the Brexit negotiations, is also highly questionable. As Sir David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, told MPs recently, ministers can just ignore a non-statutory vote.) | |
Then May said that a new leader would have to ask for an extension of article 50 to allow time for a new renegotiation. She said: | |
The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it. | |
But this assumes that the new party leader will want to negotiate a new deal. It is possible that this is the case but, given the views of Conservative party members, it is probably much more likely that a contest would result in the party being led by someone committed to a no-deal Brexit - either as their first choice or as the alternative if the EU does not give in to their fresh demands. | |
In a survey at the beginning of the month, when Conservative members were offered a choice of Brexit options, no deal came top in a ConservativeHome survey, with 34% support. | |
In another survey a few days later no deal was on 50%. As ConservativeHome reported: | |
Faced with a narrower field of May’s deal, a renegotiation attempt, no deal, another referendum, or cancelling Brexit, just over 50 per cent of respondents backed ‘no deal’. This compares with just under a quarter favouring a renegotiation attempt and just 16 per cent the prime minister’s proposals. | |
Remember, these are the people who will elect the new leader. | |
It is also worth remembering that Boris Johnson, the current favourite among the membership (see 10am), has in the past advocated a Trump-style approach to Brexit. (“There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos.”) There are leading candidates who voted remain but, as the New Statesman reports, people like Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt have reportedly started to say they favour “a managed no deal” - which basically means a no deal. | |
It is conceivable that electing a new leader could lead to Brexit being delayed. But it seems much more likely that, if May loses her vote tonight, a no-deal Brexit will become even more likely than it already is. | |
Michael Fabricant, a Tory Brexiter, has said he has not decided how he will vote tonight. He said: | |
I did not submit a letter to the 1922 and the timing of this vote is unfortunate as the prime minister has not completed her round of visits with EU leaders to resolve the Irish backstop question. | |
I had already explained to the prime minister at the beginning of last week in a one-to-one that the Irish backstop causes the biggest problem for me. I hope she has found a solution or an alternative way forward. If not, the government could fall anyway as Northern Irish DUP MPs have said they will no longer support the government in the House of Commons. | |
All these factors will be weighing in my mind when I cast my vote this evening. | |
And here are the four Tory MPs who have put messages on Twitter saying they will vote against Theresa May. | |
Andrea Jenkyns | |
I take it that those cabinet ministers defending the PM this morning, will not put their name in to succeed her if there is a leadership election? I hope colleagues will vote the right way this evening. It is time that we had a new leader to save Brexit, and unite our country. | |
Bernard Jenkin | |
The UK changed Prime Minister in May 1940 - in the middle of a monstrously greater national crisis than this. If it has to be done, it has to be done. @conservatives | |
James Duddridge | |
I can not see how the PM can limp on with 48 of her own back benches having no confidence in her. She may go directly following the vote due to losing or in the days after because she has lost authority and a majority to govern. | |
Nadine Dorries | |
If MPs with small majorities vote to keep the Prime Minister tonight, they will be voting to secure her in place for the next 12 months, which means she will very likely lead us into the next General Election. Labour will be hoping and praying that we all wimp out. | |
And Anne-Marie Trevelyan is not saying: | |
My statement on this evening's vote:https://t.co/kWXg4g4y3s | |
Rory Stewart | |
Kevin Hollinrake | |
Jake Berry | |
Liz Truss | |
Chris Skidmore | |
James Heappey | |
Julian Knight | |
Ed Vaizey | |
Marcus Jones | |
Guy Opperman | |
Huw Merriman | |
Helen Grant | |
Jeremy Lefroy | |
Robert Halfon | |
Vicky Ford | |
Alok Sharma | |
Craig Whittaker | |
Heidi Allen | |
Nick Hurd | |
Steve Brine | |
Luke Hall | |
Bim Afolami | |
Matt Warman | |
Michael Gove | |
Mary Robinson | |
Caroline Spelman | |
Andrea Leadsom | |
Simon Hoare | |
Alan Mak | |
Michael Ellis | |
Mims Davies | |
Alistair Burt | |
Nick Boles | |
Margot James | |
Justin Tomlinson | |
David Lidington | |
Andrew Stephenson | |
Liam Fox | |
Bob Neill | |
Amber Rudd | |
Sarah Wollaston | |
Alan Duncan | |
David Mundell | |
Damian Hinds | |
Mark Lancaster | |
Alec Shelbrooke | |
Robin Walker | |
Alun Cairns | |
Mark Spencer | |
Greg Clark | |
Penny Mordaunt | |
Matt Hancock | |
Kit Malthouse | |
Philip Hammond | |
Paul Scully | |
David Gauke | |
Patrick McLoughlin | |
Richard Harrington | |
Alex Chalk | |
Maria Miller | |
Amber Rudd | |
Stephen Hammond | |
Andrew Murrison | |
James Cleverly | |
Nadhim Zahawi | |
Nick Gibb | |
James Brokenshire | |
Therese Coffey | |
Jeremy Hunt | |
Brandon Lewis | |
Sarah Newton | |
Stephen Crabb | |
Robert Buckland | |
Mel Stride | |
Jesse Norman | |
Victoria Prentis | |
Sam Gyimah | |
John Howell | |
Jonathan Djanogly | |
Kelly Tolhurst | |
Damian Green | |
Geoffrey Cox | |
Caroline Nokes | |
Tobias Ellwood | |
Ben Howlett | |
Nigel Huddleston | |
Adam Afriyie | |
Peter Heaton-Jones | |
John Glen | |
Julian Smith | |
Oliver Letwin | |
Gavin Williamson | |
Philip Lee | |
Jo Churchill | |
George Freeman | |
David Warburton | |
Rebecca Pow | |
Kevin Foster retweeted constituents messages of support for the PM | |
Antoinette Sandbach | |
Michelle Donelan | |
According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have now publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote. | According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have now publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote. |
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this. | Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this. |
Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. There are officers from the 1922 Committee there and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen. | Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. There are officers from the 1922 Committee there and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen. |
On Sky News Crispin Blunt, one of the Conservative MPs who has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote, has said that he does not accept Theresa May’s argument that replacing her as party leader would lead to Brexit being delayed. (See 9.07am.) He said that, with article 50 triggered and the EU Withdrawal Act passed into law, Brexit is going to happen on 29 March anyway. | On Sky News Crispin Blunt, one of the Conservative MPs who has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote, has said that he does not accept Theresa May’s argument that replacing her as party leader would lead to Brexit being delayed. (See 9.07am.) He said that, with article 50 triggered and the EU Withdrawal Act passed into law, Brexit is going to happen on 29 March anyway. |
David Cameron is backing his successor. | David Cameron is backing his successor. |
I hope Conservative MPs will back the PM in the vote today. We need no distractions from seeking the best outcome with our neighbours, friends and partners in the EU. | I hope Conservative MPs will back the PM in the vote today. We need no distractions from seeking the best outcome with our neighbours, friends and partners in the EU. |
Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses were watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said: | Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses were watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said: |
At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country. | At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country. |
The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on. | The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on. |
History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods. | History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods. |
Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order. | Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order. |
This is from Jackson Carlaw MSP, acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives while Ruth Davidson is on maternity leave. | This is from Jackson Carlaw MSP, acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives while Ruth Davidson is on maternity leave. |
Today’s Leadership contest is a self indulgent distraction at a critical time for the country. Conservatives must unite behind @theresa_mayShe continues to have my full support. | Today’s Leadership contest is a self indulgent distraction at a critical time for the country. Conservatives must unite behind @theresa_mayShe continues to have my full support. |
The ConservativeHome website carries out regular surveys of Conservative party members as to whom they would like to see as the next part leader. For the record, here are their most recent findings, from early November. Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Sajid Javid, the home secretary, were the two favourites. | The ConservativeHome website carries out regular surveys of Conservative party members as to whom they would like to see as the next part leader. For the record, here are their most recent findings, from early November. Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Sajid Javid, the home secretary, were the two favourites. |
It is only a survey, but these ConservativeHome surveys have a reasonably good record when it comes to indicating how the membership as a whole will vote in party elections. | It is only a survey, but these ConservativeHome surveys have a reasonably good record when it comes to indicating how the membership as a whole will vote in party elections. |
Prof Tim Bale, an academic who has written a history of the modern Conservative party, has been talking about possible leadership candidates at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this morning. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has posted the highlights on Twitter. | Prof Tim Bale, an academic who has written a history of the modern Conservative party, has been talking about possible leadership candidates at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this morning. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has posted the highlights on Twitter. |
Prof Tim Bale - leaver candidate likely to replay May. Boris won't. - Sajid Javid, might be the fresh start- Jeremy Hunt - 'complete opposite to Boris Johnson, looks like he knows what he is doing but not going to inspire anyone' | Prof Tim Bale - leaver candidate likely to replay May. Boris won't. - Sajid Javid, might be the fresh start- Jeremy Hunt - 'complete opposite to Boris Johnson, looks like he knows what he is doing but not going to inspire anyone' |
As Tim Bale reminds media this morn - Churchill became leader while Neville chamberlain (who had stepped down) still in place. Chamberlain served in Churchill's cabinet as lord president of the council. | As Tim Bale reminds media this morn - Churchill became leader while Neville chamberlain (who had stepped down) still in place. Chamberlain served in Churchill's cabinet as lord president of the council. |
Prof Tim Bale's character analysis cont'd- Gove - has an awful lot of respect despite what he did to Boris. Seen to be a serious politician. But think Conservatives will judge his appeal to voters limited. Raab - next tweet | Prof Tim Bale's character analysis cont'd- Gove - has an awful lot of respect despite what he did to Boris. Seen to be a serious politician. But think Conservatives will judge his appeal to voters limited. Raab - next tweet |
Prof Tim Bale character analysis cont'd (Boris, Hunt, Gove in prev tweets) - Raab - he is almost the boring choice of the leaves. He does not seem too risky. Doesn't have track record of betrayal of Gove. If you're looking for someone not to risky, he might be the man | Prof Tim Bale character analysis cont'd (Boris, Hunt, Gove in prev tweets) - Raab - he is almost the boring choice of the leaves. He does not seem too risky. Doesn't have track record of betrayal of Gove. If you're looking for someone not to risky, he might be the man |
And Prof Bale on Rudd's chances- she is the candidate who could work with Labour. "She is clearly a good communicator, her one problem is her majority" [in Hastings] (also wd be difficult for remainer to run but could be interim PM) | And Prof Bale on Rudd's chances- she is the candidate who could work with Labour. "She is clearly a good communicator, her one problem is her majority" [in Hastings] (also wd be difficult for remainer to run but could be interim PM) |