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Presidential debate looms as Clinton-Trump race tightens – campaign live | Presidential debate looms as Clinton-Trump race tightens – campaign live |
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A classic from John Kasich’s former senior strategist: | |
Imagine a NASCAR driver mentally preparing for a race knowing one of the drivers will be drunk. That's what prepping for this debate is like | |
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Another poll shows Clinton leading ahead of tonight's debate | |
Six hours before the first presidential debate of the 2016 general election campaign, a new poll from NBC News and SurveyMonkey’s weekly tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, with no change from the week before. | |
Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson trails behind with 10% support, and Green nominee Jill Stein has 3% support. In a face-to-face matchup against Trump, Clinton increases her lead to 7 points, 51% to 44%, an increase from last week’s margin of 5 points. | |
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Fact check: The Republicans were not a “third-party” in the traditional sense, since the Whig party was declared “dead - dead - dead!” by senior members in 1852 after a demonstrative loss to Democratic presidential candidate Franklin Pierce. The party was later functionally split in two, Solomon-style, by the passage of the Kansas-Nebraska act that led to “Bleeding Kansas,” and had functionally ceased to exist by 1860. | |
3rd Party candidate has never won? Hmm...Abraham Lincoln? pic.twitter.com/ScLZs3WZzD | |
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Donald Trump is too 'mentally challenged' for Between Two Ferns, says Zach Galifianakis | Donald Trump is too 'mentally challenged' for Between Two Ferns, says Zach Galifianakis |
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s appearance on Zach Galifianakis’ hit comedy web series Between Two Ferns has shattered viewership records for the show, but that doesn’t mean its host wants a repeat performance with her rival for the presidency. | Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s appearance on Zach Galifianakis’ hit comedy web series Between Two Ferns has shattered viewership records for the show, but that doesn’t mean its host wants a repeat performance with her rival for the presidency. |
“No - that doesn’t interest me,” Galifianakis told the Los Angeles Times about doing a segment with Donald Trump. “Doing it the other way doesn’t interest me.” | “No - that doesn’t interest me,” Galifianakis told the Los Angeles Times about doing a segment with Donald Trump. “Doing it the other way doesn’t interest me.” |
Trump, Galifianakis said, is “the kind of guy who likes attention - bad attention or good attention. So you’re dealing with a psychosis there that’s a little weird.” He continued: “I wouldn’t have somebody on that’s so mentally challenged. And you can print that.” | Trump, Galifianakis said, is “the kind of guy who likes attention - bad attention or good attention. So you’re dealing with a psychosis there that’s a little weird.” He continued: “I wouldn’t have somebody on that’s so mentally challenged. And you can print that.” |
Clinton’s willingness to be skewered in Between Two Ferns is not without precedent: in 2014, Barack Obama gamely appeared on the show to talk about healthcare. The interview was watched online more than 11m times on its first day online, increasing traffic to healthcare.gov by 40%. | Clinton’s willingness to be skewered in Between Two Ferns is not without precedent: in 2014, Barack Obama gamely appeared on the show to talk about healthcare. The interview was watched online more than 11m times on its first day online, increasing traffic to healthcare.gov by 40%. |
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This Priorities USA ad might be a little too subtle: | This Priorities USA ad might be a little too subtle: |
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The government’s key witness in the George Washington Bridge lane-closing case testified on Monday that he interpreted an email from one of the defendants that it was “time for some traffic problems” as an order to put a political revenge plot into action and that he immediately told Governor Chris Christie’s campaign manager. | The government’s key witness in the George Washington Bridge lane-closing case testified on Monday that he interpreted an email from one of the defendants that it was “time for some traffic problems” as an order to put a political revenge plot into action and that he immediately told Governor Chris Christie’s campaign manager. |
David Wildstein worked for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the agency that operates New York-area bridges, tunnels, ports and airports. He pleaded guilty last year to conspiring to cause traffic gridlock near the bridge to punish Fort Lee’s Democratic mayor for not endorsing the Republican governor. | David Wildstein worked for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the agency that operates New York-area bridges, tunnels, ports and airports. He pleaded guilty last year to conspiring to cause traffic gridlock near the bridge to punish Fort Lee’s Democratic mayor for not endorsing the Republican governor. |
Bridget Kelly, Christie’s former deputy chief of staff, has claimed the email from mid-August 2013 was a joke, but Wildstein testified on Monday that he didn’t take it as one. | Bridget Kelly, Christie’s former deputy chief of staff, has claimed the email from mid-August 2013 was a joke, but Wildstein testified on Monday that he didn’t take it as one. |
“I understood that to mean it was time to change the lanes configuration at the upper level of the George Washington Bridge in order to create traffic in the borough of Fort Lee,” Wildstein said. “We had had joking emails before. I did not think she was joking.” | “I understood that to mean it was time to change the lanes configuration at the upper level of the George Washington Bridge in order to create traffic in the borough of Fort Lee,” Wildstein said. “We had had joking emails before. I did not think she was joking.” |
Wildstein also said he told Christie’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, about the plot within 24 hours of that email and told him that he would create a traffic study as a cover story. | Wildstein also said he told Christie’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, about the plot within 24 hours of that email and told him that he would create a traffic study as a cover story. |
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While his running mate goes toe-to-toe with Donald Trump in the first presidential debate of the general election campaign tonight, Virginia senator Tim Kaine will join the Human Rights Campaign for a debate watch party in Orlando tonight, along with former congresswoman Gabby Giffords and her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly. | While his running mate goes toe-to-toe with Donald Trump in the first presidential debate of the general election campaign tonight, Virginia senator Tim Kaine will join the Human Rights Campaign for a debate watch party in Orlando tonight, along with former congresswoman Gabby Giffords and her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly. |
The trio will join HRC president Chad Griffin as part of its #TurnOUT campaign, which aims to register and mobilize LGBTQ voters in battleground states to support pro-gay and pro-gun control candidates. | The trio will join HRC president Chad Griffin as part of its #TurnOUT campaign, which aims to register and mobilize LGBTQ voters in battleground states to support pro-gay and pro-gun control candidates. |
“What we do between now and Election Day will determine the kind of America we wake up to November 9th,” Griffin said in a statement. “Our ground game is stronger than ever. But we’ve also dedicated significant resources to actionable and effective online organizing efforts - from tweet-ups, and Snapchat filters, geo-targeted ads, and more, HRC is fighting to ensure the voice of our community is heard loud and clear this November.” | “What we do between now and Election Day will determine the kind of America we wake up to November 9th,” Griffin said in a statement. “Our ground game is stronger than ever. But we’ve also dedicated significant resources to actionable and effective online organizing efforts - from tweet-ups, and Snapchat filters, geo-targeted ads, and more, HRC is fighting to ensure the voice of our community is heard loud and clear this November.” |
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How are Clinton and Trump polling before the first debate? | How are Clinton and Trump polling before the first debate? |
Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
In January, I wrote that “in the first 26 days of this year, 186 political polls were released”. Since then, I’ve lost count. | In January, I wrote that “in the first 26 days of this year, 186 political polls were released”. Since then, I’ve lost count. |
New numbers are released every day by different organizations (some academic, some corporate and some media businesses themselves), and they all depict a slightly different political reality. | New numbers are released every day by different organizations (some academic, some corporate and some media businesses themselves), and they all depict a slightly different political reality. |
To state the obvious, in 2016 political reality is very different from that of previous presidential elections. And not just because the two remaining candidates are the least popular for more than 30 years. It’s also because polls, which have come to be the manna of political analysts, now offer less help in making sense of it all. | To state the obvious, in 2016 political reality is very different from that of previous presidential elections. And not just because the two remaining candidates are the least popular for more than 30 years. It’s also because polls, which have come to be the manna of political analysts, now offer less help in making sense of it all. |
In past elections, the polls had settled down by Labor Day. This year, they continue to point all over the place. On Sunday, a survey by the Economist and YouGov found that Hillary Clinton had a lead of 4%. Less than 24 hours later, a poll from the LA Times and USC Tracking put Donald Trump 4% ahead. | In past elections, the polls had settled down by Labor Day. This year, they continue to point all over the place. On Sunday, a survey by the Economist and YouGov found that Hillary Clinton had a lead of 4%. Less than 24 hours later, a poll from the LA Times and USC Tracking put Donald Trump 4% ahead. |
Both pollsters are considered credible, which makes this even more confusing. | Both pollsters are considered credible, which makes this even more confusing. |
This series is intended to help you make sense of the ceaseless onslaught of numbers by taking a closer look at just one poll. But to start us off, I want to talk about a crucial tool in polling analysis: the average. | This series is intended to help you make sense of the ceaseless onslaught of numbers by taking a closer look at just one poll. But to start us off, I want to talk about a crucial tool in polling analysis: the average. |
The site Real Clear Politics (RCP) takes the average of all recent credible polls to create a moving average. Right now, RCP has Clinton with 45.9% of the vote while Trump has 43.8%, meaning that the Democratic nominee is ahead by 2.1%. | The site Real Clear Politics (RCP) takes the average of all recent credible polls to create a moving average. Right now, RCP has Clinton with 45.9% of the vote while Trump has 43.8%, meaning that the Democratic nominee is ahead by 2.1%. |
Notice how Democrats aren’t singing from the rooftops or gloating on Twitter? It’s because 2.1% means nothing. | Notice how Democrats aren’t singing from the rooftops or gloating on Twitter? It’s because 2.1% means nothing. |
It’s so small, it could be down to errors in the ways that polls are conducted. It’s so narrow, it could easily be reversed by individuals who change their mind or who are not honestly disclosing how they plan to vote. | It’s so small, it could be down to errors in the ways that polls are conducted. It’s so narrow, it could easily be reversed by individuals who change their mind or who are not honestly disclosing how they plan to vote. |
The takeaway? Going into tonight’s debate, the two candidates are neck and neck. | The takeaway? Going into tonight’s debate, the two candidates are neck and neck. |
But how much do debates matter? As my former colleague Lauren Leatherby haspointed out, they have hurt candidates in the polls (see Barack Obama in 2012 and George Bush in 2004). But ultimately those candidates have been able to recover by election day (see, uh, the same candidates). | But how much do debates matter? As my former colleague Lauren Leatherby haspointed out, they have hurt candidates in the polls (see Barack Obama in 2012 and George Bush in 2004). But ultimately those candidates have been able to recover by election day (see, uh, the same candidates). |
So even if tonight produces a clear loser, the November vote is not a done deal. | So even if tonight produces a clear loser, the November vote is not a done deal. |
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Monmouth poll: Clinton has 4-point lead over Trump | Monmouth poll: Clinton has 4-point lead over Trump |
Eight hours before going toe-to-toe at the first presidential debate of the general election campaign, Hillary Clinton has a four-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters nationwide, according to a just-released Monmouth University poll. It’s a three-point drop from her lead one month ago, but a more positive position than the latest numbers from Bloomberg, which show Trump taking the lead in race that includes third-party candidates. | Eight hours before going toe-to-toe at the first presidential debate of the general election campaign, Hillary Clinton has a four-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters nationwide, according to a just-released Monmouth University poll. It’s a three-point drop from her lead one month ago, but a more positive position than the latest numbers from Bloomberg, which show Trump taking the lead in race that includes third-party candidates. |
Clinton is currently polling at 46% among likely voters, according to Monmouth, while Trump commands the support of 42% of likely voters. Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson is polling at 8% in the survey and Green nominee Jill Stein is at 2%. Among all registered voters, and not just those most likely to vote in the upcoming election, Clinton leads with 45%, while Trump falls slightly further behind with 40% Trump. | Clinton is currently polling at 46% among likely voters, according to Monmouth, while Trump commands the support of 42% of likely voters. Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson is polling at 8% in the survey and Green nominee Jill Stein is at 2%. Among all registered voters, and not just those most likely to vote in the upcoming election, Clinton leads with 45%, while Trump falls slightly further behind with 40% Trump. |
Among her compatriots in the Democratic party, Clinton has the support of 91% of party members, while Trump has won 85% of Republicans. This is an improvement for Trump, who previously counted only one-in-four Republican voters in his corner. Monmouth’s polling suggests that independents are cutting right, supporting Trump over Clinton by 39% to 33%, a precipitous drop for the former secretary of state, who held a five-point lead among independent voters in late August. | Among her compatriots in the Democratic party, Clinton has the support of 91% of party members, while Trump has won 85% of Republicans. This is an improvement for Trump, who previously counted only one-in-four Republican voters in his corner. Monmouth’s polling suggests that independents are cutting right, supporting Trump over Clinton by 39% to 33%, a precipitous drop for the former secretary of state, who held a five-point lead among independent voters in late August. |
The generation gaps are in keeping with previous polling. Clinton leads among millennial voters under the age of 35 by 48% to Trump’s 28%, while voters 35 to 54 support Trump at and Clinton at 41%. For voters older than 55, support is similarly divided, with 47% supporting Clinton and 46% supporting Trump. | The generation gaps are in keeping with previous polling. Clinton leads among millennial voters under the age of 35 by 48% to Trump’s 28%, while voters 35 to 54 support Trump at and Clinton at 41%. For voters older than 55, support is similarly divided, with 47% supporting Clinton and 46% supporting Trump. |
“Clinton’s support has softened since the summer, but she has still managed to grab a share of those who tend to vote Republican,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. | “Clinton’s support has softened since the summer, but she has still managed to grab a share of those who tend to vote Republican,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. |
The historically unpopular major-party candidates are still viewed negatively by large majorities of the electorate. According to the survey, 36% of voters view Clinton positively, while 54% view her negatively. Trump fares even worse - 32% of voters view him positively, and 57% view him negatively. | The historically unpopular major-party candidates are still viewed negatively by large majorities of the electorate. According to the survey, 36% of voters view Clinton positively, while 54% view her negatively. Trump fares even worse - 32% of voters view him positively, and 57% view him negatively. |
Three-in-four voters (75%) plan to watch tonight’s debate, but that doesn’t mean the debate will necessarily change minds: Only 48% of undecided voters or those supporting a third-party candidate plan to watch tonight, while eight-in-ten supporters of Clinton and Trump hope to watch. | Three-in-four voters (75%) plan to watch tonight’s debate, but that doesn’t mean the debate will necessarily change minds: Only 48% of undecided voters or those supporting a third-party candidate plan to watch tonight, while eight-in-ten supporters of Clinton and Trump hope to watch. |
“Pundits expect that a lot will be riding on the first debate. The voters? Not so much,” said Murray. | “Pundits expect that a lot will be riding on the first debate. The voters? Not so much,” said Murray. |
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Dan Roberts | Dan Roberts |
Five awkward questions Hillary Clinton might field tonight: | Five awkward questions Hillary Clinton might field tonight: |
What single policy should your campaign be known for?Harder than it sounds, or should be, this question gets at a weakness which many critics feels lies at the heart of the campaign. Instead of one signature issue, Clinton has dozens of detailed policies on a host of subjects. It may make her a great president one day, but for now voters struggle to understand what slogans such as “stronger together” mean in practice. If Clinton were forced to pick one concrete thing for viewers to remember her for, what would it be? | What single policy should your campaign be known for?Harder than it sounds, or should be, this question gets at a weakness which many critics feels lies at the heart of the campaign. Instead of one signature issue, Clinton has dozens of detailed policies on a host of subjects. It may make her a great president one day, but for now voters struggle to understand what slogans such as “stronger together” mean in practice. If Clinton were forced to pick one concrete thing for viewers to remember her for, what would it be? |
Do you believe in globalisation?Over many years in public life, the former secretary of state has understandably embraced an evolving set of economic positions. But few have come further than Clinton on the subject of free trade deals and the damage they may or may not have done to American manufacturing. She says she opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership now proposed by Obama, but is it a principled opposition or a mere pragmatic response to Trump? Are there limits to the benefits of globalisation for US workers? | Do you believe in globalisation?Over many years in public life, the former secretary of state has understandably embraced an evolving set of economic positions. But few have come further than Clinton on the subject of free trade deals and the damage they may or may not have done to American manufacturing. She says she opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership now proposed by Obama, but is it a principled opposition or a mere pragmatic response to Trump? Are there limits to the benefits of globalisation for US workers? |
How would your counter-terrorism policy differ from Obama’s?In the face of continued terrorist attacks, the issue of “defending America” will be top of Monday’s agenda. Yet Clinton risks being caught between defending the legacy of an Obama administration in which she served and acknowledging that not everything is working out well right now. How would she defeat Islamic State? Would she be more or less hawkish in Iraq and Afghanistan? If nothing changes, then Trump may be able to pin her to a range of foreign policy failures. | How would your counter-terrorism policy differ from Obama’s?In the face of continued terrorist attacks, the issue of “defending America” will be top of Monday’s agenda. Yet Clinton risks being caught between defending the legacy of an Obama administration in which she served and acknowledging that not everything is working out well right now. How would she defeat Islamic State? Would she be more or less hawkish in Iraq and Afghanistan? If nothing changes, then Trump may be able to pin her to a range of foreign policy failures. |
Why are you so secretive?From emails to pneumonia, Clinton has repeatedly got herself into trouble by going out of her way to hide information from the public. The obvious question is: what does she have to hide? The usual explanation is that Clinton has been on the receiving end of so many smears over the years that she has learned to be cautious, but this should also teach her to be wary of cover-ups. Why should someone who ignores medical advice to rest, or legal advice to keep email on government servers, be trusted to take wise decisions in office? | Why are you so secretive?From emails to pneumonia, Clinton has repeatedly got herself into trouble by going out of her way to hide information from the public. The obvious question is: what does she have to hide? The usual explanation is that Clinton has been on the receiving end of so many smears over the years that she has learned to be cautious, but this should also teach her to be wary of cover-ups. Why should someone who ignores medical advice to rest, or legal advice to keep email on government servers, be trusted to take wise decisions in office? |
How would you reduce income inequality?Supporters would argue that Clinton has provided many answers to this question: from infrastructure spending and a jobs program to minimum wage increases and taxing the rich. Yet many still wonder if a campaign so heavily funded by America’s rich and powerful really understands or is committed to helping its middle class. Her answers may be more nuanced than Trump’s crude protectionism, but they need to cut through with voters if she is to blunt his appeal in the rust belt. | How would you reduce income inequality?Supporters would argue that Clinton has provided many answers to this question: from infrastructure spending and a jobs program to minimum wage increases and taxing the rich. Yet many still wonder if a campaign so heavily funded by America’s rich and powerful really understands or is committed to helping its middle class. Her answers may be more nuanced than Trump’s crude protectionism, but they need to cut through with voters if she is to blunt his appeal in the rust belt. |
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What are the third-party candidates up to? | What are the third-party candidates up to? |
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will be the only two candidates to participate in tonight’s presidential debate at Hofstra University on Long Island - polling limitations have limited the field to just the two major-party candidates, as has happened in every presidential debate since 1992 - but that doesn’t mean that the other would-be presidents have given up on participating in some capacity. | Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will be the only two candidates to participate in tonight’s presidential debate at Hofstra University on Long Island - polling limitations have limited the field to just the two major-party candidates, as has happened in every presidential debate since 1992 - but that doesn’t mean that the other would-be presidents have given up on participating in some capacity. |
Former New Mexico governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson will watch tonight’s debate from New York City with his running mate, Bill Weld, and will be livetweeting the proceedings from Twitter’s offices in Chelsea. | Former New Mexico governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson will watch tonight’s debate from New York City with his running mate, Bill Weld, and will be livetweeting the proceedings from Twitter’s offices in Chelsea. |
Green party nominee Jill Stein, meanwhile, plans to “literally insert herself” into the debate tonight, responding to each of the debate questions via Periscope livestream. Responses will also be livestreamed via Facebook Live on her Facebook page. “In effect, using a range of cutting-edge social media tools, Jill Stein will literally ‘insert’ herself into the debate process,” according to Meleiza Figueroa, Stein’s press director. | Green party nominee Jill Stein, meanwhile, plans to “literally insert herself” into the debate tonight, responding to each of the debate questions via Periscope livestream. Responses will also be livestreamed via Facebook Live on her Facebook page. “In effect, using a range of cutting-edge social media tools, Jill Stein will literally ‘insert’ herself into the debate process,” according to Meleiza Figueroa, Stein’s press director. |
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Nigel M Smith | Nigel M Smith |
In the latest episode of Last Week Tonight, host John Oliver dedicated much of the show to make the case that Donald Trump’s worst scandals “trump” those of opponent Hillary Clinton. | In the latest episode of Last Week Tonight, host John Oliver dedicated much of the show to make the case that Donald Trump’s worst scandals “trump” those of opponent Hillary Clinton. |
“This campaign has been dominated by scandals, but it is dangerous to think that there is an equal number on both sides,” he said. “And you can be irritated by some of Hillary’s – that is understandable – but you should then be fucking outraged by Trump’s. | “This campaign has been dominated by scandals, but it is dangerous to think that there is an equal number on both sides,” he said. “And you can be irritated by some of Hillary’s – that is understandable – but you should then be fucking outraged by Trump’s. |
“Ethical failings in a politician are like raisins in a cookie,” he explained. “They shouldn’t be there. They disgust people. But most politicians have at least a few raisins. | “Ethical failings in a politician are like raisins in a cookie,” he explained. “They shouldn’t be there. They disgust people. But most politicians have at least a few raisins. |
“Hillary is a cookie like this one,” he said, holding an oatmeal raisin cookie. “She arguably has more raisins than average.” | “Hillary is a cookie like this one,” he said, holding an oatmeal raisin cookie. “She arguably has more raisins than average.” |
As for Trump? “The man is a fucking raisin monsoon,” yelled Oliver, as a torrent of raisins rained down on his desk. | As for Trump? “The man is a fucking raisin monsoon,” yelled Oliver, as a torrent of raisins rained down on his desk. |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.21pm BST | at 5.21pm BST |