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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/08/stock-markets-nervous-us-election-clinton-trump-rbs-marks-spencer-live
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Stock markets nervously await election results – business live | Stock markets nervously await election results – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.43am GMT | |
| 09:43 | |
| Newsflash: British industrial output fell unexpectedly in September, but manufacturing managed a small revival. | |
| The Office for National Statistics reports that industrial production shrank by 0.4%, due to a decline in mining and quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. | |
| But encouragingly, manufacturing output rose by 0.6% during the month. | |
| Better news for monthly UK Manufacturing production "an increase in manufacturing of 0.6%." | |
| Senior ONS statistician Kate Davies says we shouldn’t draw any sweeping conclusions about Brexit, though: | |
| “Manufacturing was broadly flat across the third quarter while oil and gas were weak overall, with widespread summer maintenance shutdowns hampering production more than usual. | |
| “There are no obvious signs so far of either the weaker pound or post-referendum uncertainties affecting the output of UK factories, which continued broadly in line with recent trends.” | |
| 9.30am GMT | |
| 09:30 | |
| Today could be a pretty dull trading session in Europe, warns Connor Campbell of SpreadEx: | |
| The morning session could be a bit of a duff one this Tuesday, given that nothing concrete from the US in terms state-voting etc is going to be out until this evening. It is likely going to be one of those days where the seismic nature of an event renders the market inert for around 24 hours. | |
| 9.15am GMT | |
| 09:15 | |
| The pound has risen 0.3% against the US dollar this morning, to $1.2424, recovering some of yesterday’s selloff. | |
| But generally the currency markets are pretty calm. | |
| BNY Mellon currency strategist Neil Mellor says: | |
| “The markets are in lockdown mode at the moment. | |
| There’s a little tentativeness ahead of the election even though polls are giving Clinton the lead.” | |
| 8.54am GMT | 8.54am GMT |
| 08:54 | 08:54 |
| European markets eerily calm this morning | European markets eerily calm this morning |
| European stock markets are as flat as an American pancake in early trading (but nowhere near as delicious). | European stock markets are as flat as an American pancake in early trading (but nowhere near as delicious). |
| The FTSE 100 index has crept up just 3 points, having jumped by 113 points yesterday. The German and French markets are equally dull, while the Italian FTSE MIB has dipped a little. | The FTSE 100 index has crept up just 3 points, having jumped by 113 points yesterday. The German and French markets are equally dull, while the Italian FTSE MIB has dipped a little. |
| Yesterday’s rally was driven by the news that the FBI had cleared Hillary Clinton over her email server, following a second probe. Now, investors are wondering if the polling are right - they give the Democratic nominee a three point lead nationally. | Yesterday’s rally was driven by the news that the FBI had cleared Hillary Clinton over her email server, following a second probe. Now, investors are wondering if the polling are right - they give the Democratic nominee a three point lead nationally. |
| Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says that memories of the British EU referendum are still fresh: | Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says that memories of the British EU referendum are still fresh: |
| With the finishing line now in sight financial markets are reacting as if a Clinton win is a done deal, in eerie echoes of the lead-up to the June UK Brexit vote, as markets priced in the preservation of some form of status quo, and we all know how that ended. | With the finishing line now in sight financial markets are reacting as if a Clinton win is a done deal, in eerie echoes of the lead-up to the June UK Brexit vote, as markets priced in the preservation of some form of status quo, and we all know how that ended. |
| 8.45am GMT | 8.45am GMT |
| 08:45 | 08:45 |
| Financial traders are pretty confident that Hillary Clinton will win, according to spread-betting firm IG’s presidential barometer. | Financial traders are pretty confident that Hillary Clinton will win, according to spread-betting firm IG’s presidential barometer. |
| It shows that Clinton now has an 81% chance of success, based on IG clients’ trades: | It shows that Clinton now has an 81% chance of success, based on IG clients’ trades: |
| 8.24am GMT | 8.24am GMT |
| 08:24 | 08:24 |
| City experts are predicting a small rally if Clinton wins the presidency, and a whopping selloff if Trump triumphs. | City experts are predicting a small rally if Clinton wins the presidency, and a whopping selloff if Trump triumphs. |
| 8.24am GMT | 8.24am GMT |
| 08:24 | 08:24 |
| Today isn’t just about the presidential race, of course. City investors are also watching Congressional elections, to see who wins control of Capitol Hill. | Today isn’t just about the presidential race, of course. City investors are also watching Congressional elections, to see who wins control of Capitol Hill. |
| Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe the Republicans will retain their grip on the lower house of Congress. | Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe the Republicans will retain their grip on the lower house of Congress. |
| In terms of the Senate, Republicans are currently slightly edging out Democrats 51-49 in “no toss-ups” polling. But while the Presidency and Senate are seemingly too close to call, the House looks very likely to remain decidedly in Republican control—they are ahead 224 to the Democrats’ 190, not including the 21 toss-ups. | In terms of the Senate, Republicans are currently slightly edging out Democrats 51-49 in “no toss-ups” polling. But while the Presidency and Senate are seemingly too close to call, the House looks very likely to remain decidedly in Republican control—they are ahead 224 to the Democrats’ 190, not including the 21 toss-ups. |
| Thus, Republicans can achieve a majority of 218 seats without winning any of the toss-ups. | Thus, Republicans can achieve a majority of 218 seats without winning any of the toss-ups. |
| That would potentially make it rather harder for Hillary Clinton to push policies through, should she beat Donald Trump tonight. | That would potentially make it rather harder for Hillary Clinton to push policies through, should she beat Donald Trump tonight. |
| 8.06am GMT | 8.06am GMT |
| 08:06 | 08:06 |
| The agenda: Clinton vs Trump looms over the markets | The agenda: Clinton vs Trump looms over the markets |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| There’s only one event on everyone’s mind today, of course, the US presidential elections. | There’s only one event on everyone’s mind today, of course, the US presidential elections. |
| And global stock markets looks decidedly nervous this morning as America heads to the polls after one of the more vicious and occasionally unedifying campaigns. | And global stock markets looks decidedly nervous this morning as America heads to the polls after one of the more vicious and occasionally unedifying campaigns. |
| Last night, the US stock market posted its best one-day jump since March, with the Dow Jones index rising by 2%. | Last night, the US stock market posted its best one-day jump since March, with the Dow Jones index rising by 2%. |
| But investors appears to be hunkering down today as they wait to see whether the polls are right, and Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump to the White House. | But investors appears to be hunkering down today as they wait to see whether the polls are right, and Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump to the White House. |
| European stock markets are looking becalmed right now, after a lacklustre day in Asia which saw Japan’s Nikkei dip 5 points, or 0.03%. | European stock markets are looking becalmed right now, after a lacklustre day in Asia which saw Japan’s Nikkei dip 5 points, or 0.03%. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6811 up 4$DAX 10469 up 12$CAC 4464 up 2$IBEX 8941 up 22$MIB 16784 up 47 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6811 up 4$DAX 10469 up 12$CAC 4464 up 2$IBEX 8941 up 22$MIB 16784 up 47 |
| Investors can remember the shock of 24th June, when predictions that Britain would vote to remain in the EU came badly unstuck. | Investors can remember the shock of 24th June, when predictions that Britain would vote to remain in the EU came badly unstuck. |
| Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets sums up the situation: | Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets sums up the situation: |
| Asian markets have struggled for traction overnight, unable to build on Monday’s gains, with momentum fading. Memories of a surprise Brexit result are too fresh to ignore at this late stage and polls so tight. | Asian markets have struggled for traction overnight, unable to build on Monday’s gains, with momentum fading. Memories of a surprise Brexit result are too fresh to ignore at this late stage and polls so tight. |
| Sell-off + rebound shows which way mkts want #Election2016 to go. But current trading shows once bitten, twice shy after Brexit surprise | Sell-off + rebound shows which way mkts want #Election2016 to go. But current trading shows once bitten, twice shy after Brexit surprise |
| Clinton has enjoyed an early success, claiming the (tiny) constituency of Dixville Notch by four votes to two! | Clinton has enjoyed an early success, claiming the (tiny) constituency of Dixville Notch by four votes to two! |
| Dixville Notch #USElections2016 results! Clinton: 4 votes; Trump: 2; Johnson: 1; Mitt Romney (write-in!): 1 https://t.co/h1hnzOV5Qz | Dixville Notch #USElections2016 results! Clinton: 4 votes; Trump: 2; Johnson: 1; Mitt Romney (write-in!): 1 https://t.co/h1hnzOV5Qz |
| But that won’t be enough -- the election will be decided in key battlegrounds like Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio. If Trump performs surprisingly well in those states, things could get very ‘interesting’. | But that won’t be enough -- the election will be decided in key battlegrounds like Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio. If Trump performs surprisingly well in those states, things could get very ‘interesting’. |
| We’re already liveblogging all the action from the US, here. | We’re already liveblogging all the action from the US, here. |
| Also coming up today...... | Also coming up today...... |
| High street retailer Marks & Spencer has announced a store closure programme as CEO Steve Rowe tries to breath new life into the chain. | High street retailer Marks & Spencer has announced a store closure programme as CEO Steve Rowe tries to breath new life into the chain. |
| M&S review: Rowe axing loss-making owned overseas stores and plan to shake up 25% of floor space devoted to clothing and home | M&S review: Rowe axing loss-making owned overseas stores and plan to shake up 25% of floor space devoted to clothing and home |
| Big changes at M&S on back of falling sales. 30 UK high st stores to close, 45 reconfigured Simply Food. Exiting international business. | Big changes at M&S on back of falling sales. 30 UK high st stores to close, 45 reconfigured Simply Food. Exiting international business. |
| A looooong-awaited report into Royal Bank of Scotland has shown how the bank mistreated some small customers, following allegations that some were deliberately driven into bankrupcy. RBS is paying £400m compensation. | A looooong-awaited report into Royal Bank of Scotland has shown how the bank mistreated some small customers, following allegations that some were deliberately driven into bankrupcy. RBS is paying £400m compensation. |
| RBS to take £400m hit to compensate small business customers; CEO says sorry for poor service | RBS to take £400m hit to compensate small business customers; CEO says sorry for poor service |
| European finance ministers are holding an Ecofin meeting in Brussels this morning. They’ll be discussing plans to clamp down on corporate tax avoidance. Brexit isn’t on the agenda, but I guess it’ll be discussed in some quiet corners | European finance ministers are holding an Ecofin meeting in Brussels this morning. They’ll be discussing plans to clamp down on corporate tax avoidance. Brexit isn’t on the agenda, but I guess it’ll be discussed in some quiet corners |
| And on the economic front, we’re getting new industrial production figures from Germany and the UK this morning. | And on the economic front, we’re getting new industrial production figures from Germany and the UK this morning. |
| And at 3pm, the NIESR thinktank will estimate how quickly the UK economy grew in the August-to-October quarter. | And at 3pm, the NIESR thinktank will estimate how quickly the UK economy grew in the August-to-October quarter. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.16am GMT | at 8.16am GMT |