This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/08/stock-markets-nervous-us-election-clinton-trump-rbs-marks-spencer-live

The article has changed 21 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 13 Version 14
Stock markets nervously await election results – business live Stock markets edge higher ahead of election results – business live
(35 minutes later)
5.20pm GMT
17:20
European markets edge higher on election day
There is nervousness among investors as the US votes for its next president - the spectre of the Brexit vote and the complete inaccuracy of the polls there is still fresh in the memory - but European markets have managed to end in positive territory.
The news from Guam, a positive sign for Hillary Clinton, has given US markets a lift and helped push Europe higher too. The final scores showed:
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 118 points or 0.65%.
4.58pm GMT
16:58
Here’s a traders guide from Goldman Sachs to what is likely to happen when as the election results come in, courtesy MarketWatch:
A trader’s guide to watching the election, courtesy of Goldman Sachs: https://t.co/Yov494fMfG
Updated
at 4.58pm GMT
4.47pm GMT4.47pm GMT
16:4716:47
Markets boosted by Guam voting for Hillary
An early positive sign for Hillary Clinton - she has been backed in the tiny US island of Guam:An early positive sign for Hillary Clinton - she has been backed in the tiny US island of Guam:
US stock markets are soaring and USDJPY has popped above 105.00, after Guam results are announced - they voted overwhelmingly for #ClintonUS stock markets are soaring and USDJPY has popped above 105.00, after Guam results are announced - they voted overwhelmingly for #Clinton
Worth noting - even though Guam doesn't have any electoral college votes, it has predicted the winner of each Presidential race since 1980Worth noting - even though Guam doesn't have any electoral college votes, it has predicted the winner of each Presidential race since 1980
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, after drifting lower in early trading, is now up 72 points or 0.4%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, after drifting lower in early trading, is now up 72 points or 0.4%.
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.49pm GMT at 5.05pm GMT
4.25pm GMT4.25pm GMT
16:2516:25
Would a Trump victory result in parity on EURUSD within 12 months? @Barclays think so. pic.twitter.com/9VfTZf8S59Would a Trump victory result in parity on EURUSD within 12 months? @Barclays think so. pic.twitter.com/9VfTZf8S59
4.12pm GMT4.12pm GMT
16:1216:12
More on how markets would react to either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning today’s election. John Higgins at consultancy Capital Economics said:More on how markets would react to either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning today’s election. John Higgins at consultancy Capital Economics said:
A victory for Hillary Clinton in the presidential race was heavily discounted on the day of the vote. So we doubt that there will be much of a response in the markets today if she has triumphed. But a win for Donald Trump could cause major upheaval.A victory for Hillary Clinton in the presidential race was heavily discounted on the day of the vote. So we doubt that there will be much of a response in the markets today if she has triumphed. But a win for Donald Trump could cause major upheaval.
For example, a victory for Trump would probably send the dollar down sharply against other “majors”, particularly the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We would expect the yen/dollar exchange rate to break below 100, compared to a current level of nearly 105. We would also anticipate a sharp rise in the dollar against some emerging market currencies. For example, the Mexican peso could hit 25/$, versus 19/$ or so now.For example, a victory for Trump would probably send the dollar down sharply against other “majors”, particularly the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We would expect the yen/dollar exchange rate to break below 100, compared to a current level of nearly 105. We would also anticipate a sharp rise in the dollar against some emerging market currencies. For example, the Mexican peso could hit 25/$, versus 19/$ or so now.
In our view, a Trump win would also have large effects on equities. For example, we think the S&P 500 would fall below 2,000, compared to a current level of around 2,130. And many stock market indices elsewhere would probably fare worse. The Nikkei 225 could be hit especially hard by accompanying strength in the yen – we wouldn’t be surprised if it tumbled below 15,000, versus a current level of more than 17,000. And there would probably a broad-based rout in emerging markets.In our view, a Trump win would also have large effects on equities. For example, we think the S&P 500 would fall below 2,000, compared to a current level of around 2,130. And many stock market indices elsewhere would probably fare worse. The Nikkei 225 could be hit especially hard by accompanying strength in the yen – we wouldn’t be surprised if it tumbled below 15,000, versus a current level of more than 17,000. And there would probably a broad-based rout in emerging markets.
We suspect that US Treasuries would rally if Trump won, with the 10-year yield falling to 1.5% from around 1.8%. Admittedly, he has talked about defaulting on the national debt, has a fiscal plan that includes unfunded tax cuts and has proposed trade tariffs that would boost inflation. But a plunge in risky asset prices would prompt a reassessment of the near-term outlook for Fed policy and boost the demand for safe havens.We suspect that US Treasuries would rally if Trump won, with the 10-year yield falling to 1.5% from around 1.8%. Admittedly, he has talked about defaulting on the national debt, has a fiscal plan that includes unfunded tax cuts and has proposed trade tariffs that would boost inflation. But a plunge in risky asset prices would prompt a reassessment of the near-term outlook for Fed policy and boost the demand for safe havens.
Meanwhile, the initial uncertainty following a victory for Trump would surely undermine the prices of industrial commodities, including oil and base metals, while gold would benefit from a renewed burst of safe-haven demand. In the short term, therefore, we would expect crude oil to fall to around $40 and gold to surge to at least $1,400. The impact of the dollar is a further wildcard. A big fall in the value of the US currency would limit the downside for the dollar prices of industrial commodities, while adding to the upside for gold.Meanwhile, the initial uncertainty following a victory for Trump would surely undermine the prices of industrial commodities, including oil and base metals, while gold would benefit from a renewed burst of safe-haven demand. In the short term, therefore, we would expect crude oil to fall to around $40 and gold to surge to at least $1,400. The impact of the dollar is a further wildcard. A big fall in the value of the US currency would limit the downside for the dollar prices of industrial commodities, while adding to the upside for gold.
3.31pm GMT3.31pm GMT
15:3115:31
Back with the presidential election, and if Hillary Clinton wins, it would give a green light to the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates in December, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index:Back with the presidential election, and if Hillary Clinton wins, it would give a green light to the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates in December, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index:
Markets have rushed to price in a rate hike from the Fed in recent days, the current implied probability of one 25 basis point hike next month is 82%, up from 68% a week ago. This is a sign that markets are confident that Hillary Clinton will win the US Presidential election tonight. It also suggests that should she lose the election and Trump win, there could be a major readjustment in financial markets, with Fed rate hike expectations falling sharply, a dramatic fall in US bond yields, and a decline in the US dollar.Markets have rushed to price in a rate hike from the Fed in recent days, the current implied probability of one 25 basis point hike next month is 82%, up from 68% a week ago. This is a sign that markets are confident that Hillary Clinton will win the US Presidential election tonight. It also suggests that should she lose the election and Trump win, there could be a major readjustment in financial markets, with Fed rate hike expectations falling sharply, a dramatic fall in US bond yields, and a decline in the US dollar.
...While we think a Clinton win is more likely, we are still gearing up for major financial market volatility if this proves not to be the case....While we think a Clinton win is more likely, we are still gearing up for major financial market volatility if this proves not to be the case.
Our clients also appear fairly confident about a Clinton win, however, this is reflected more in their foreign exchange positions than in their stock market positioning. Our clients are long the US dollar in the lead up to the election result, and 75% of clients trading dollar/yen are long. The fact that our clients are willing to short the yen at this stage, suggests that they do not see a shock election result from the US.Our clients also appear fairly confident about a Clinton win, however, this is reflected more in their foreign exchange positions than in their stock market positioning. Our clients are long the US dollar in the lead up to the election result, and 75% of clients trading dollar/yen are long. The fact that our clients are willing to short the yen at this stage, suggests that they do not see a shock election result from the US.
Although we expect stock markets to stage a relief rally if we see Clinton win the White House later today, we believe that any stock market rally is likely to be short-lived, as markets instead focus on the risk of rising bond yields and a Fed rate hike in a few weeks, which could be bad news for stocks into the end of the year.Although we expect stock markets to stage a relief rally if we see Clinton win the White House later today, we believe that any stock market rally is likely to be short-lived, as markets instead focus on the risk of rising bond yields and a Fed rate hike in a few weeks, which could be bad news for stocks into the end of the year.
3.00pm GMT3.00pm GMT
15:0015:00
Away from the US election for a moment, and more signs of a slowing UK economy.Away from the US election for a moment, and more signs of a slowing UK economy.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Reseach has estimated that UK output grew by 0.4% in the three months to the end of October, compared to growth of 0.5% in the three months to September.The National Institute of Economic and Social Reseach has estimated that UK output grew by 0.4% in the three months to the end of October, compared to growth of 0.5% in the three months to September.
The think tank’s Oriol Carreras said “Our estimates suggest the economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October. Robust consumer spending growth continues to support the economy. Looking ahead, this contribution from consumers is expected to wane over the course of next year due to a substantial rise in the rate of inflation.”The think tank’s Oriol Carreras said “Our estimates suggest the economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October. Robust consumer spending growth continues to support the economy. Looking ahead, this contribution from consumers is expected to wane over the course of next year due to a substantial rise in the rate of inflation.”
Its latest quarterly forecast published earlier this month predicted GDP growth of 2% per annum in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.Its latest quarterly forecast published earlier this month predicted GDP growth of 2% per annum in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.
2.52pm GMT2.52pm GMT
14:5214:52
2.40pm GMT2.40pm GMT
14:4014:40
No Clinton relief rally today (yet anyway)No Clinton relief rally today (yet anyway)
Dominic RusheDominic Rushe
US markets have lost a bit of steam since yesterday’s euphoric rise on the news that the FBI would not re-open its inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s emails.US markets have lost a bit of steam since yesterday’s euphoric rise on the news that the FBI would not re-open its inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s emails.
The Dow Jones ended yesterday up 2%, the S&P 2.22% and the Nasdaq 2.37% as Clinton inched further ahead of Trump in the polls.The Dow Jones ended yesterday up 2%, the S&P 2.22% and the Nasdaq 2.37% as Clinton inched further ahead of Trump in the polls.
As the bell rung on election day all the stock market indices are down a fraction of a percent. It’s going to be a long, nail-biting day on Wall Street.As the bell rung on election day all the stock market indices are down a fraction of a percent. It’s going to be a long, nail-biting day on Wall Street.
Separately...a former advisor to two former Republican president tweets:Separately...a former advisor to two former Republican president tweets:
Please do not vote for the racist today.Please do not vote for the racist today.
A former domestic policy adviser to Ronald Reagan and Treasury official under George H. W. Bush writes... #Election2016 https://t.co/NN0IxbpRqJA former domestic policy adviser to Ronald Reagan and Treasury official under George H. W. Bush writes... #Election2016 https://t.co/NN0IxbpRqJ
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.40pm GMTat 2.40pm GMT
2.31pm GMT2.31pm GMT
14:3114:31
Ding ding! The Wall Street opening bell is ringing, to start the election day trading session.Ding ding! The Wall Street opening bell is ringing, to start the election day trading session.
The main indices are dipping around 0.2%in early trading. More in a moment....The main indices are dipping around 0.2%in early trading. More in a moment....
2.23pm GMT2.23pm GMT
14:2314:23
Get up to speed with the Guardian's US election coverageGet up to speed with the Guardian's US election coverage
You can get ready for tonight’s election drama with the Guardian’s ‘survival guide’,.You can get ready for tonight’s election drama with the Guardian’s ‘survival guide’,.
It lays out when the key action should happen (complete with food and drink recommendations)It lays out when the key action should happen (complete with food and drink recommendations)
We’ve also laid out five potential scenarios for the election, including how Donald Trump could be swept to the White House.We’ve also laid out five potential scenarios for the election, including how Donald Trump could be swept to the White House.
And we’ve also analysed the latest opinion polls, including for crunch states such as Florida:And we’ve also analysed the latest opinion polls, including for crunch states such as Florida:
2.15pm GMT2.15pm GMT
14:1514:15
Naeem Aslam of Think Markets says traders are acting like ‘zombies today’.Naeem Aslam of Think Markets says traders are acting like ‘zombies today’.
He flags up that the ‘one week volatility’ in the US dollar-euro exchange rate has fallen sharply, since the FBI absolved Hillary Clinton of misconduct over her email server on Sunday night.He flags up that the ‘one week volatility’ in the US dollar-euro exchange rate has fallen sharply, since the FBI absolved Hillary Clinton of misconduct over her email server on Sunday night.
However....However....
this could change very much tomorrow if we do not get the expected outcome which is always a chief concern.this could change very much tomorrow if we do not get the expected outcome which is always a chief concern.
Aslam also predicts that Wall Street would plunge sharply if Trump beats Clinton.Aslam also predicts that Wall Street would plunge sharply if Trump beats Clinton.
If Trump wins the election, we are expecting the S&P500 to drop nearly 6.16 percent% and the picture will be even more vile for the emerging markets.If Trump wins the election, we are expecting the S&P500 to drop nearly 6.16 percent% and the picture will be even more vile for the emerging markets.
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.15pm GMTat 2.15pm GMT
2.10pm GMT2.10pm GMT
14:1014:10
Traders have roused themselves from their US election torpor to drive shares in Marks & Spencer down by 4.3%.Traders have roused themselves from their US election torpor to drive shares in Marks & Spencer down by 4.3%.
M&S are languishing at the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as the City shows little enthusiasm for its latest turnaround plan.M&S are languishing at the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as the City shows little enthusiasm for its latest turnaround plan.
Steve Rowe the firm’s new CEO, has torn up M&S’s international ambitions, and will shut 53 overseas stores from China to Lithuania.Steve Rowe the firm’s new CEO, has torn up M&S’s international ambitions, and will shut 53 overseas stores from China to Lithuania.
Rowe is also canning the clothing departments at 60 stores, as part of a new focus on food.Rowe is also canning the clothing departments at 60 stores, as part of a new focus on food.
1.55pm GMT1.55pm GMT
13:5513:55
Given the lack of news, City traders could easily have taken today off.Given the lack of news, City traders could easily have taken today off.
And looking at the stock market right now, maybe they already have! The blue-chip Footsie index is barely changed this morning, and sterling has dipped a little.And looking at the stock market right now, maybe they already have! The blue-chip Footsie index is barely changed this morning, and sterling has dipped a little.
It could be the calm before the hurricane, though. Trading floors will be pretty lively places tomorrow morning, especially if there’s a shock result.It could be the calm before the hurricane, though. Trading floors will be pretty lively places tomorrow morning, especially if there’s a shock result.
Paul Sirani, chief market analyst at Xtrade, explains:Paul Sirani, chief market analyst at Xtrade, explains:
“The danger here of a Brexit-like shock is overblown; voter behaviour for one-off referendums is not comparable to that of routine elections.“The danger here of a Brexit-like shock is overblown; voter behaviour for one-off referendums is not comparable to that of routine elections.
“However, if Trump is named the 45th President of the United States, then there’s certain to be traders running across the floor throwing papers in the air. An initial overreaction, comparable to the UK Brexit experience to-date, is likely before markets settle again.”“However, if Trump is named the 45th President of the United States, then there’s certain to be traders running across the floor throwing papers in the air. An initial overreaction, comparable to the UK Brexit experience to-date, is likely before markets settle again.”
1.40pm GMT1.40pm GMT
13:4013:40
Betfair has seen a late flurry of wagers on Hillary Clinton who currently has a 78% chance of victory at its site.Betfair has seen a late flurry of wagers on Hillary Clinton who currently has a 78% chance of victory at its site.
Barry Orr, Spokesperson for Betfair, says that 80% of presidential bets yesterday were on the Democratic candidate.Barry Orr, Spokesperson for Betfair, says that 80% of presidential bets yesterday were on the Democratic candidate.
There’s been around £7m traded in the last 24 hours and with so much money coming into the market the odds are likely to continue to fluctuate throughout the day and into the night.There’s been around £7m traded in the last 24 hours and with so much money coming into the market the odds are likely to continue to fluctuate throughout the day and into the night.
“With nearly £118m now traded it’s hard to see how it won’t surpass the £127m betting market record set by Brexit in June. It’s unlikely the market will trade anywhere near as much as Brexit did once polls were closed, which occasionally hit £10k per second, but if it does we would easily be looking at more than £150m total traded on the market.“With nearly £118m now traded it’s hard to see how it won’t surpass the £127m betting market record set by Brexit in June. It’s unlikely the market will trade anywhere near as much as Brexit did once polls were closed, which occasionally hit £10k per second, but if it does we would easily be looking at more than £150m total traded on the market.
1.28pm GMT1.28pm GMT
13:2813:28
City firms prepare for all-nighterCity firms prepare for all-nighter
Many City traders are preparing for a sleepless night, to help deal with a rush of action once polling results come in.Many City traders are preparing for a sleepless night, to help deal with a rush of action once polling results come in.
ETX Capital, for example, will be fully staffed overnight, and expects to face plenty of volatility.ETX Capital, for example, will be fully staffed overnight, and expects to face plenty of volatility.
Analyst Neil Wilson explains:Analyst Neil Wilson explains:
Market action could hinge on one or two moments - for example the Florida result, key for Trump’s chances for the presidency, is vitally important.Market action could hinge on one or two moments - for example the Florida result, key for Trump’s chances for the presidency, is vitally important.
This will create some big opportunities in some of the most exposed markets, particularly around some of the key currency pairs, stocks and gold.This will create some big opportunities in some of the most exposed markets, particularly around some of the key currency pairs, stocks and gold.
But a word of warning - there could be some wild gyrations in prices, making this potentially the most turbulent trading sessions since Brexit. Looking to the results, if key states start to lean towards Trump, we may see sizeable risk-off selling as investors flee to havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold. US government bond yields could sink and gold would soar.But a word of warning - there could be some wild gyrations in prices, making this potentially the most turbulent trading sessions since Brexit. Looking to the results, if key states start to lean towards Trump, we may see sizeable risk-off selling as investors flee to havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold. US government bond yields could sink and gold would soar.
Turbulence could come quickly – polls in the vital swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina close between 7pm and 8pm (EST), which is midnight-1am GMT. You can expect markets to be highly sensitive to the results from these states. If they are called for either side early we will have a very clear idea about where the markets are headed.Turbulence could come quickly – polls in the vital swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina close between 7pm and 8pm (EST), which is midnight-1am GMT. You can expect markets to be highly sensitive to the results from these states. If they are called for either side early we will have a very clear idea about where the markets are headed.
And if that’s not enough action, there’s also the England vs India test match!And if that’s not enough action, there’s also the England vs India test match!
Plans for tonight mostly revolve around how to watch and listen to US election coverage while also listening to the 1st Test @bbctmsPlans for tonight mostly revolve around how to watch and listen to US election coverage while also listening to the 1st Test @bbctms
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.42pm GMTat 1.42pm GMT