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| Wall Street closes higher and Mexican peso hits two-month high ahead of election results – as it happened | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.23pm GMT | |
| 21:23 | |
| The markets have spoken. But are they right? | |
| The financial markets are now closed, with investors having pushed shares higher in Europe and the US today on predictions that Hillary Clinton is poised to become America’s next president. | |
| If they’re mistaken, and the polls are wrong, there’s going to be an almighty panic when everyone returns to their desks. | |
| Markets reminds me of #Brexit vote day: Stocks Rise With Mexico Peso, Safe havens lose out on early projections. https://t.co/tKDXkPEIDq pic.twitter.com/b0cZOwbvVq | |
| Oxford Economics say we can expect “moderate gains” if Clinton wins, and a “significant selloff” if she doesn’t. | |
| In short, markets have already spoken. Equities will be the asset class that will gain the most in case of a Clinton win and equally lose the most if Donald Trump moves into the White House. Bond markets will likely rally a bit if Trump wins. | |
| Certain emerging market asset classes would also move sharply. The Mexican peso would depreciate by between 10 and 22% in case of a Trump win and its sovereign spreads rise by between 80 and 120bps. | |
| Asian traders will be in the firing line first - their markets will open as the early results come in. So we’ll launch a new liveblog tracking the markets in a few hours. | |
| I’m off to | |
| nervously watch the results | |
| have a nap, and will be back early tomorrow. In the meantime, stay tuned to our main US elections liveblog. Goodnight! GW | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.33pm GMT | |
| 9.07pm GMT | |
| 21:07 | |
| Wall Street closes higher as election results loom | |
| DING DING! The closing bell of Wall Street has been rung, as traders pushed shares higher for the second day running. | |
| In a “risk-on mood”, the Dow Jones industrial average has ended the day 72 points higher at 18,331, up 0.4%. | |
| The S&P 500 shows similar gains, as traders continue to bet on a Clinton victory tonight. | |
| And the Mexican peso is still trading at a two-month high, in a clear sign that traders expect Donald Trump to fail in his bid to reach the Oval Office. | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.08pm GMT | |
| 8.46pm GMT | 8.46pm GMT |
| 20:46 | 20:46 |
| With fifteen minutes until trading ends in New York, the Dow is holding onto its gains. | With fifteen minutes until trading ends in New York, the Dow is holding onto its gains. |
| It’s currently up 104 points, or 0.5%, as investors continue to anticipate a Clinton victory. Could they be too complacent? | It’s currently up 104 points, or 0.5%, as investors continue to anticipate a Clinton victory. Could they be too complacent? |
| I'm pretty surprised at the lack of Trump concern in the market right now. Doesn't look like there's any last minute second thought/hedging. | I'm pretty surprised at the lack of Trump concern in the market right now. Doesn't look like there's any last minute second thought/hedging. |
| 8.44pm GMT | 8.44pm GMT |
| 20:44 | 20:44 |
| This has not been the most dramatic day in the stock markets, in truth. But it’s all going to change in a few hours, once the results come in. | This has not been the most dramatic day in the stock markets, in truth. But it’s all going to change in a few hours, once the results come in. |
| Chad Morganlander, a money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co, says traders should buckle up. | Chad Morganlander, a money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co, says traders should buckle up. |
| He told Bloomberg that: | He told Bloomberg that: |
| “Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride... | “Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride... |
| As the polls close later today, investors will be moving in a chaotic fashion to get ahead of the information flow.” | As the polls close later today, investors will be moving in a chaotic fashion to get ahead of the information flow.” |
| “Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride,” https://t.co/dMh0BGIt8Z via @markets | “Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride,” https://t.co/dMh0BGIt8Z via @markets |
| 8.31pm GMT | 8.31pm GMT |
| 20:31 | 20:31 |
| Over in Asia and Australia, traders are heading to their desks to watch the US election results unfold. | Over in Asia and Australia, traders are heading to their desks to watch the US election results unfold. |
| IG’s Chris Weston says the market still feel that Hillary Clinton has the edge. But memories of the Brexit referendum this summer haven’t faded. | |
| He reminds us how events unfolded in June: | |
| As soon as Newcastle and Sunderland broke and the markets thought ‘this wasn’t supposed to happen’, then the sky darkened and the markets caved in. | As soon as Newcastle and Sunderland broke and the markets thought ‘this wasn’t supposed to happen’, then the sky darkened and the markets caved in. |
| This election isn’t perhaps as binary as the UK referendum, but the way financial markets react today could be fairly similar in the sense that if Trump starts picking up the 50/50 states like Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada and potentially some of the more certain Democrat battlegrounds then the market could be wild. | This election isn’t perhaps as binary as the UK referendum, but the way financial markets react today could be fairly similar in the sense that if Trump starts picking up the 50/50 states like Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada and potentially some of the more certain Democrat battlegrounds then the market could be wild. |
| Of course, we mustn’t forget that there is a real battle for the Senate too and its 50/50 that the Republicans can hold onto the Upper Chamber. | Of course, we mustn’t forget that there is a real battle for the Senate too and its 50/50 that the Republicans can hold onto the Upper Chamber. |
| Updated | |
| at 9.10pm GMT | |
| 8.28pm GMT | 8.28pm GMT |
| 20:28 | 20:28 |
| The Mexican peso is continuing to rally, and just hit a new two-month high: | The Mexican peso is continuing to rally, and just hit a new two-month high: |
| Mexican peso pressing session highs as stocks near the final 30 minutes of trading https://t.co/YjdBzGOx8H pic.twitter.com/4jajomjqOS | Mexican peso pressing session highs as stocks near the final 30 minutes of trading https://t.co/YjdBzGOx8H pic.twitter.com/4jajomjqOS |
| 8.18pm GMT | 8.18pm GMT |
| 20:18 | 20:18 |
| Almost all of the 30 companies on the Dow Jones industrial average are up today, but the gains are fairly muted. | Almost all of the 30 companies on the Dow Jones industrial average are up today, but the gains are fairly muted. |
| Consumer good group Procter and Gamble, fast food chain McDonald’s and drinks group Coca-Cola are among the top risers: | Consumer good group Procter and Gamble, fast food chain McDonald’s and drinks group Coca-Cola are among the top risers: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.27pm GMT | at 8.27pm GMT |
| 8.08pm GMT | 8.08pm GMT |
| 20:08 | 20:08 |
| Less than one hour to go until trading closes on Wall Street, folks! | Less than one hour to go until trading closes on Wall Street, folks! |
| And the New York stock market is still on track to finish higher tonight, as investors continue to predict a victory for Hillary Clinton. | And the New York stock market is still on track to finish higher tonight, as investors continue to predict a victory for Hillary Clinton. |
| The rally has weakened a little, though, as investors show some caution about the election: | The rally has weakened a little, though, as investors show some caution about the election: |
| Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, told Reuters that: | Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, told Reuters that: |
| “We were dramatically oversold. People were nervous Trump would win. | “We were dramatically oversold. People were nervous Trump would win. |
| “There’s likely to be additional volatility in both directions between now and the end of the day.” | “There’s likely to be additional volatility in both directions between now and the end of the day.” |
| 7.57pm GMT | 7.57pm GMT |
| 19:57 | 19:57 |
| There were lots of nervous faces on Wall Street today, as traders kept one eye on the markets and the other one on the unfolding election. | There were lots of nervous faces on Wall Street today, as traders kept one eye on the markets and the other one on the unfolding election. |
| Here are some new pictures from the NYSE trading floor: | Here are some new pictures from the NYSE trading floor: |
| 7.56pm GMT | 7.56pm GMT |
| 19:56 | 19:56 |
| Jeremy Cook of World First is also concerned about the effect that the VoteCastr realtime polling is having on the markets.... | Jeremy Cook of World First is also concerned about the effect that the VoteCastr realtime polling is having on the markets.... |
| While I was asleep it looks like MXN has got all excited. This continuous exit poll as the vote is ongoing troubles me... | While I was asleep it looks like MXN has got all excited. This continuous exit poll as the vote is ongoing troubles me... |
| MXN = the Mexican peso | MXN = the Mexican peso |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.57pm GMT | at 7.57pm GMT |
| 7.45pm GMT | 7.45pm GMT |
| 19:45 | 19:45 |
| Here’s a neat graph showing how the US stock markets pushed higher today after VoteCastr said Hillary Clinton was leading in key states like Florida (even though we don’t know how accurate its system actually is) | Here’s a neat graph showing how the US stock markets pushed higher today after VoteCastr said Hillary Clinton was leading in key states like Florida (even though we don’t know how accurate its system actually is) |
| Traders ascribed a late-morning spike in the stock market to new, real-time election projections: https://t.co/QuVs5hphAe pic.twitter.com/40e0BHnbcv | Traders ascribed a late-morning spike in the stock market to new, real-time election projections: https://t.co/QuVs5hphAe pic.twitter.com/40e0BHnbcv |
| 7.43pm GMT | 7.43pm GMT |
| 19:43 | 19:43 |
| Standard Life: What the election will mean for the Fed | Standard Life: What the election will mean for the Fed |
| Dominic Rushe | Dominic Rushe |
| Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Standard Life Investments, has just published a note about the implications of a Trump or Clinton victory. | Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Standard Life Investments, has just published a note about the implications of a Trump or Clinton victory. |
| If Hillary takes the White House the Lawson says the status quo will be maintained. There’ll be gridlock in Washington but the economy will maintain its slow but steady recovery, and the Federal Reserve could hike borrowing costs next month. | If Hillary takes the White House the Lawson says the status quo will be maintained. There’ll be gridlock in Washington but the economy will maintain its slow but steady recovery, and the Federal Reserve could hike borrowing costs next month. |
| He writes: | He writes: |
| “ In this ‘status quo’ outcome the combination of a healthier economy and reduced policy uncertainty should allow the Fed to recommence normalising interest rates at its December meeting, though the pace of rate increases will remain gradual.” | “ In this ‘status quo’ outcome the combination of a healthier economy and reduced policy uncertainty should allow the Fed to recommence normalising interest rates at its December meeting, though the pace of rate increases will remain gradual.” |
| But if Trump wins... | But if Trump wins... |
| “Donald Trump’s election would introduce more uncertainty to the outlook for government policy, economic activity and the Fed, though those risks are not all to the downside. Initially, considerable market volatility is possible but it is actual policy decisions that will dictate the trajectory for the economy.” | “Donald Trump’s election would introduce more uncertainty to the outlook for government policy, economic activity and the Fed, though those risks are not all to the downside. Initially, considerable market volatility is possible but it is actual policy decisions that will dictate the trajectory for the economy.” |
| Lawson is betting Trump’s tough trade talk is largely hot air and if he cuts regulation on the finance, energy, telecoms and healthcare sectors, that could boost earnings. | Lawson is betting Trump’s tough trade talk is largely hot air and if he cuts regulation on the finance, energy, telecoms and healthcare sectors, that could boost earnings. |
| “If, on the other hand, a President Trump turns out to be serious about pursuing a much more protectionist policy agenda, the negative consequences for economic activity and corporate margins could easily offset the benefits of fiscal easing, preventing the Fed from tightening policy for some time.” | “If, on the other hand, a President Trump turns out to be serious about pursuing a much more protectionist policy agenda, the negative consequences for economic activity and corporate margins could easily offset the benefits of fiscal easing, preventing the Fed from tightening policy for some time.” |
| 7.34pm GMT | 7.34pm GMT |
| 19:34 | 19:34 |
| The Wall Street Journal is also reporting that the live voting data produced by VoteCastr is affecting stock prices. | The Wall Street Journal is also reporting that the live voting data produced by VoteCastr is affecting stock prices. |
| The WSJ’s Paul Vigna explains: | The WSJ’s Paul Vigna explains: |
| Wall Street traders are moving markets Tuesday based on a small group of websites that purport to offer real-time estimates of the election results. | Wall Street traders are moving markets Tuesday based on a small group of websites that purport to offer real-time estimates of the election results. |
| It’s a first for traders, and for the news media. It has been a longstanding policy for mainstream media to not report on exit-polling data while polls are still open on Election Day, so as to avoid discouraging voters in western states from voting. | It’s a first for traders, and for the news media. It has been a longstanding policy for mainstream media to not report on exit-polling data while polls are still open on Election Day, so as to avoid discouraging voters in western states from voting. |
| Today, though, websites Vice and Slate plan on providing what they are characterizing as “live” voting projections throughout the day. | Today, though, websites Vice and Slate plan on providing what they are characterizing as “live” voting projections throughout the day. |
| To be sure, this is an experiment, and a controversial one. Regardless, the numbers are being put out there, and the market is noticing. With the Slate data showing Hillary Clinton leading in several key swing states, stocks have shot higher and bonds have fallen. | To be sure, this is an experiment, and a controversial one. Regardless, the numbers are being put out there, and the market is noticing. With the Slate data showing Hillary Clinton leading in several key swing states, stocks have shot higher and bonds have fallen. |
| Right now, VoteCastr are giving Clinton a four point lead in the crucial state of Florida, with 48% of support vs Trump’s 44%. If the Democrats do claim Florida, it’s hard to see a Republican victory. | Right now, VoteCastr are giving Clinton a four point lead in the crucial state of Florida, with 48% of support vs Trump’s 44%. If the Democrats do claim Florida, it’s hard to see a Republican victory. |
| BUT (and it’s a big one), realtime polling forecasts are still somewhat experimental. If early voters aren’t representative of the electorate, then their projections could be skewed, for example. | BUT (and it’s a big one), realtime polling forecasts are still somewhat experimental. If early voters aren’t representative of the electorate, then their projections could be skewed, for example. |
| Some websites are tracking "live" voting projections. It's toying with the stock market, @paulvigna writes: https://t.co/VlsSTFBhsh | Some websites are tracking "live" voting projections. It's toying with the stock market, @paulvigna writes: https://t.co/VlsSTFBhsh |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.57pm GMT | at 7.57pm GMT |
| 7.20pm GMT | 7.20pm GMT |
| 19:20 | 19:20 |
| Mexican peso hits two-month high | Mexican peso hits two-month high |
| The Mexican peso has hit a two-month high today, which also suggests investors are predicting defeat for Donald Trump. | The Mexican peso has hit a two-month high today, which also suggests investors are predicting defeat for Donald Trump. |
| The peso has rallied to 18.4195 against the US dollar, from 18.58/$1 last night, a gain of 1% or so. | The peso has rallied to 18.4195 against the US dollar, from 18.58/$1 last night, a gain of 1% or so. |
| The peso has been very sensitive to Trump’s electoral prospects, given his attacks on Mexicans and opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement. | The peso has been very sensitive to Trump’s electoral prospects, given his attacks on Mexicans and opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.24pm GMT | at 7.24pm GMT |
| 7.06pm GMT | 7.06pm GMT |
| 19:06 | 19:06 |
| Another handy map showing when the polls close across America (add five hours for UK timing): | Another handy map showing when the polls close across America (add five hours for UK timing): |
| When Does the Voting End and the Vote Counting Start? (via @WSJ) pic.twitter.com/pwaJAzM43p | When Does the Voting End and the Vote Counting Start? (via @WSJ) pic.twitter.com/pwaJAzM43p |