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| Stock markets nervously await election results – business live | Stock markets nervously await election results – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.40pm GMT | |
| 13:40 | |
| Betfair has seen a late flurry of wagers on Hillary Clinton who currently has a 78% chance of victory at its site. | |
| Barry Orr, Spokesperson for Betfair, says that 80% of presidential bets yesterday were on the Democratic candidate. | |
| There’s been around £7m traded in the last 24 hours and with so much money coming into the market the odds are likely to continue to fluctuate throughout the day and into the night. | |
| “With nearly £118m now traded it’s hard to see how it won’t surpass the £127m betting market record set by Brexit in June. It’s unlikely the market will trade anywhere near as much as Brexit did once polls were closed, which occasionally hit £10k per second, but if it does we would easily be looking at more than £150m total traded on the market. | |
| 1.28pm GMT | |
| 13:28 | |
| City firms prepare for all-nighter | |
| Many City traders are preparing for a sleepless night, to help deal with a rush of action once polling results come in. | |
| ETX Capital, for example, will be fully staffed overnight, and expects to face plenty of volatility. | |
| Analyst Neil Wilson explains: | |
| Market action could hinge on one or two moments - for example the Florida result, key for Trump’s chances for the presidency, is vitally important. | |
| This will create some big opportunities in some of the most exposed markets, particularly around some of the key currency pairs, stocks and gold. | |
| But a word of warning - there could be some wild gyrations in prices, making this potentially the most turbulent trading sessions since Brexit. Looking to the results, if key states start to lean towards Trump, we may see sizeable risk-off selling as investors flee to havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold. US government bond yields could sink and gold would soar. | |
| Turbulence could come quickly – polls in the vital swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina close between 7pm and 8pm (EST), which is midnight-1am GMT. You can expect markets to be highly sensitive to the results from these states. If they are called for either side early we will have a very clear idea about where the markets are headed. | |
| And if that’s not enough action, there’s also the England vs India test match! | |
| Plans for tonight mostly revolve around how to watch and listen to US election coverage while also listening to the 1st Test @bbctms | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.42pm GMT | |
| 1.12pm GMT | 1.12pm GMT |
| 13:12 | 13:12 |
| New York traders are heading to Wall Street for what is bound to be an edgy session. | New York traders are heading to Wall Street for what is bound to be an edgy session. |
| After yesterday’s 2.2% surge, the Dow is expected to dip ever-so slightly at the open. | After yesterday’s 2.2% surge, the Dow is expected to dip ever-so slightly at the open. |
| US Opening Calls:#DOW 18234 -0.12%#SPX 2129 -0.07%#NASDAQ 4772 0.00%#IGOpeningCall | US Opening Calls:#DOW 18234 -0.12%#SPX 2129 -0.07%#NASDAQ 4772 0.00%#IGOpeningCall |
| 12.50pm GMT | 12.50pm GMT |
| 12:50 | 12:50 |
| The markers may remain dull until late tonight, when the first exit polls arrive. | The markers may remain dull until late tonight, when the first exit polls arrive. |
| Currency markets for the next 10hrs #election2016 pic.twitter.com/e1ZlU3rQMu | Currency markets for the next 10hrs #election2016 pic.twitter.com/e1ZlU3rQMu |
| The first polls close at 6pm ET, or 11pm in the UK, followed by a flurry over the next couple of hours: | The first polls close at 6pm ET, or 11pm in the UK, followed by a flurry over the next couple of hours: |
| Asian financial markets will be open, of course, and could see the brunt of the early buying/selling as the winner becomes clear. | Asian financial markets will be open, of course, and could see the brunt of the early buying/selling as the winner becomes clear. |
| 12.32pm GMT | 12.32pm GMT |
| 12:32 | 12:32 |
| Despite yesterday’s relief rally, there’s still plenty of anxiety in the markets. | Despite yesterday’s relief rally, there’s still plenty of anxiety in the markets. |
| Barclays says that: | Barclays says that: |
| Similar to the pre-Brexit landscape, the risk premium on European equities is already near all-time highs, suggesting that investors are somewhat braced for an adverse economic outcome. | Similar to the pre-Brexit landscape, the risk premium on European equities is already near all-time highs, suggesting that investors are somewhat braced for an adverse economic outcome. |
| 12.14pm GMT | 12.14pm GMT |
| 12:14 | 12:14 |
| RBC: How the markets might react tomorrow | RBC: How the markets might react tomorrow |
| The team at RBC have produced some predictions for how the markets will react to tomorrow’s election result: | The team at RBC have produced some predictions for how the markets will react to tomorrow’s election result: |
| Equities | Equities |
| Currencies and Commodities | Currencies and Commodities |
| Global Rates | Global Rates |
| They also suggest that companies who provide services through Obama’s Affordable Care Act should rally if Clinton wins, as should firms exposed to global trade. | They also suggest that companies who provide services through Obama’s Affordable Care Act should rally if Clinton wins, as should firms exposed to global trade. |
| But if Tump wins, expect gold producers to rally - along with pharmaceuticals companies (as Clinton has promised to tackle high drugs prices). | But if Tump wins, expect gold producers to rally - along with pharmaceuticals companies (as Clinton has promised to tackle high drugs prices). |
| 11.58am GMT | 11.58am GMT |
| 11:58 | 11:58 |
| Trade has been a recurring theme of the US election campaign, with Donald Trump arguing that US jobs have been ‘stolen’ by China. | Trade has been a recurring theme of the US election campaign, with Donald Trump arguing that US jobs have been ‘stolen’ by China. |
| That has sparked fears of a new wave of protectionism under a Trump White House. But as these graphs from Deutsche Bank show, world trade may already have hit a turning point. | That has sparked fears of a new wave of protectionism under a Trump White House. But as these graphs from Deutsche Bank show, world trade may already have hit a turning point. |
| Number of free trade agreements being signed at a 20-yr low, says Deutsche. All those UK deals coming down the pipe will fix that though.. pic.twitter.com/NoAbkdM54J | Number of free trade agreements being signed at a 20-yr low, says Deutsche. All those UK deals coming down the pipe will fix that though.. pic.twitter.com/NoAbkdM54J |
| World trade - and globalization too, probably - has peaked and is now declining, says Deutsche Bank. pic.twitter.com/VWTRl2pdo5 | World trade - and globalization too, probably - has peaked and is now declining, says Deutsche Bank. pic.twitter.com/VWTRl2pdo5 |
| 11.49am GMT | 11.49am GMT |
| 11:49 | 11:49 |
| Paul Donovan, UBS’s global chief economist, sounds thoroughly disenchanted with the whole US election. | Paul Donovan, UBS’s global chief economist, sounds thoroughly disenchanted with the whole US election. |
| In his daily note to clients, Donovan explains how politicians have a duty to combat the rise in prejudice against other groups (rather than fuelling it, ala Trump), and to explain how technological changes are changing the labo(u)r market. | In his daily note to clients, Donovan explains how politicians have a duty to combat the rise in prejudice against other groups (rather than fuelling it, ala Trump), and to explain how technological changes are changing the labo(u)r market. |
| Donovan says: | Donovan says: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.50am GMT | at 11.50am GMT |
| 11.24am GMT | 11.24am GMT |
| 11:24 | 11:24 |
| The sovereign bond market has also entered a state of temporary hibernation this morning, with the prices of benchmark US, UK and German debt virtually unchanged. | The sovereign bond market has also entered a state of temporary hibernation this morning, with the prices of benchmark US, UK and German debt virtually unchanged. |
| Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says few people wants to take a big risk ahead of tonight’s election results. | Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says few people wants to take a big risk ahead of tonight’s election results. |
| “When the numbers are as close as this and when we are seeing an antiestablishment movement that perhaps behaves differently to traditional election voters, then the outcome is more uncertain, | “When the numbers are as close as this and when we are seeing an antiestablishment movement that perhaps behaves differently to traditional election voters, then the outcome is more uncertain, |
| Stocks, bonds and currencies freeze ahead of the U.S. election https://t.co/dfkuYxgwvw | Stocks, bonds and currencies freeze ahead of the U.S. election https://t.co/dfkuYxgwvw |
| 11.05am GMT | 11.05am GMT |
| 11:05 | 11:05 |
| After three hours of trading, Europe’s stock markets are still gripped by nervous tension. | After three hours of trading, Europe’s stock markets are still gripped by nervous tension. |
| The FTSE 100 is currently up just 9 points, or 0.13%, as the City awaits results from America overnight. | The FTSE 100 is currently up just 9 points, or 0.13%, as the City awaits results from America overnight. |
| Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says: | Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says: |
| The reality has hit home today, after yesterday’s carefree exuberance almost made us believe the election was already over. Today sees all other concerns thrown out the window as we hunker down for a historic night that will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of this year. | The reality has hit home today, after yesterday’s carefree exuberance almost made us believe the election was already over. Today sees all other concerns thrown out the window as we hunker down for a historic night that will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of this year. |
| 10.57am GMT | 10.57am GMT |
| 10:57 | 10:57 |
| A handy map for those of you trying to plan your election coverage overnight (all timings for the UK) | A handy map for those of you trying to plan your election coverage overnight (all timings for the UK) |
| Staying up late tomorrow night?Here's a guide for this side of the pond on when the results start to come in in every state #USElections2016 pic.twitter.com/CKmzqYQZzz | Staying up late tomorrow night?Here's a guide for this side of the pond on when the results start to come in in every state #USElections2016 pic.twitter.com/CKmzqYQZzz |
| 10.41am GMT | 10.41am GMT |
| 10:41 | 10:41 |
| A Trump victory could send the gold price surging to $1,400 per ounce, up from around $1,280 today, according to Citi analysts. | A Trump victory could send the gold price surging to $1,400 per ounce, up from around $1,280 today, according to Citi analysts. |
| They also predict that the Mexican peso would slump by 10%, to 20 peso to the $1, on fears of trade disruption. | They also predict that the Mexican peso would slump by 10%, to 20 peso to the $1, on fears of trade disruption. |
| Equities down, #Mexico Peso 10% Crash, Gold up: Citi has posted a last-minute update on how mkts could move on a Trump victory #ElectionDay. pic.twitter.com/eUg7XGvyVW | Equities down, #Mexico Peso 10% Crash, Gold up: Citi has posted a last-minute update on how mkts could move on a Trump victory #ElectionDay. pic.twitter.com/eUg7XGvyVW |