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Stock markets nervously await election results – business live Stock markets nervously await election results – business live
(35 minutes later)
11.58am GMT
11:58
Trade has been a recurring theme of the US election campaign, with Donald Trump arguing that US jobs have been ‘stolen’ by China.
That has sparked fears of a new wave of protectionism under a Trump White House. But as these graphs from Deutsche Bank show, world trade may already have hit a turning point.
Number of free trade agreements being signed at a 20-yr low, says Deutsche. All those UK deals coming down the pipe will fix that though.. pic.twitter.com/NoAbkdM54J
World trade - and globalization too, probably - has peaked and is now declining, says Deutsche Bank. pic.twitter.com/VWTRl2pdo5
11.49am GMT
11:49
Paul Donovan, UBS’s global chief economist, sounds thoroughly disenchanted with the whole US election.
In his daily note to clients, Donovan explains how politicians have a duty to combat the rise in prejudice against other groups (rather than fuelling it, ala Trump), and to explain how technological changes are changing the labo(u)r market.
Donovan says:
Updated
at 11.50am GMT
11.24am GMT11.24am GMT
11:2411:24
The sovereign bond market has also entered a state of temporary hibernation this morning, with the prices of benchmark US, UK and German debt virtually unchanged.The sovereign bond market has also entered a state of temporary hibernation this morning, with the prices of benchmark US, UK and German debt virtually unchanged.
Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says few people wants to take a big risk ahead of tonight’s election results.Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says few people wants to take a big risk ahead of tonight’s election results.
“When the numbers are as close as this and when we are seeing an antiestablishment movement that perhaps behaves differently to traditional election voters, then the outcome is more uncertain,“When the numbers are as close as this and when we are seeing an antiestablishment movement that perhaps behaves differently to traditional election voters, then the outcome is more uncertain,
Stocks, bonds and currencies freeze ahead of the U.S. election https://t.co/dfkuYxgwvwStocks, bonds and currencies freeze ahead of the U.S. election https://t.co/dfkuYxgwvw
11.05am GMT11.05am GMT
11:0511:05
After three hours of trading, Europe’s stock markets are still gripped by nervous tension.After three hours of trading, Europe’s stock markets are still gripped by nervous tension.
The FTSE 100 is currently up just 9 points, or 0.13%, as the City awaits results from America overnight.The FTSE 100 is currently up just 9 points, or 0.13%, as the City awaits results from America overnight.
Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says:Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says:
The reality has hit home today, after yesterday’s carefree exuberance almost made us believe the election was already over. Today sees all other concerns thrown out the window as we hunker down for a historic night that will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of this year.The reality has hit home today, after yesterday’s carefree exuberance almost made us believe the election was already over. Today sees all other concerns thrown out the window as we hunker down for a historic night that will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of this year.
10.57am GMT10.57am GMT
10:5710:57
A handy map for those of you trying to plan your election coverage overnight (all timings for the UK)A handy map for those of you trying to plan your election coverage overnight (all timings for the UK)
Staying up late tomorrow night?Here's a guide for this side of the pond on when the results start to come in in every state #USElections2016 pic.twitter.com/CKmzqYQZzzStaying up late tomorrow night?Here's a guide for this side of the pond on when the results start to come in in every state #USElections2016 pic.twitter.com/CKmzqYQZzz
10.41am GMT10.41am GMT
10:4110:41
A Trump victory could send the gold price surging to $1,400 per ounce, up from around $1,280 today, according to Citi analysts.A Trump victory could send the gold price surging to $1,400 per ounce, up from around $1,280 today, according to Citi analysts.
They also predict that the Mexican peso would slump by 10%, to 20 peso to the $1, on fears of trade disruption.They also predict that the Mexican peso would slump by 10%, to 20 peso to the $1, on fears of trade disruption.
Equities down, #Mexico Peso 10% Crash, Gold up: Citi has posted a last-minute update on how mkts could move on a Trump victory #ElectionDay. pic.twitter.com/eUg7XGvyVWEquities down, #Mexico Peso 10% Crash, Gold up: Citi has posted a last-minute update on how mkts could move on a Trump victory #ElectionDay. pic.twitter.com/eUg7XGvyVW
10.10am GMT10.10am GMT
10:1010:10
Analysts warn of market mayhem if Trump winsAnalysts warn of market mayhem if Trump wins
Several City firms are warning their clients to expect a heavy selloff on Wednesday, if Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton.Several City firms are warning their clients to expect a heavy selloff on Wednesday, if Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton.
Andreas Johnson, economist at Nordic bank SEB, warns that the race could be closer than people expect.Andreas Johnson, economist at Nordic bank SEB, warns that the race could be closer than people expect.
A Trump victory would be a clear risk off event that would trigger significant reactions and equity markets would take a sharp hit, at least in the short term. Emerging market assets look particularly vulnerable as safe haven flows would put pressure on assets perceived to risky.A Trump victory would be a clear risk off event that would trigger significant reactions and equity markets would take a sharp hit, at least in the short term. Emerging market assets look particularly vulnerable as safe haven flows would put pressure on assets perceived to risky.
A clear Clinton victory should trigger a short-lived rally.A clear Clinton victory should trigger a short-lived rally.
“However, the tightening of the polls indicate that the risk of a very close result is substantial. In this scenario the election result could be up for challenge and equity markets could suffer from a prolonged period of uncertainty. The 2000 presidential election resulted in a month of uncertainty and such a scenario could weigh heavily on stock markets.”“However, the tightening of the polls indicate that the risk of a very close result is substantial. In this scenario the election result could be up for challenge and equity markets could suffer from a prolonged period of uncertainty. The 2000 presidential election resulted in a month of uncertainty and such a scenario could weigh heavily on stock markets.”
Philip Smeaton, chief investment officer at Sanlam Private Wealth (UK), says Trump could disrupt global trade and rock the financial system:Philip Smeaton, chief investment officer at Sanlam Private Wealth (UK), says Trump could disrupt global trade and rock the financial system:
“A Clinton win would put America in safe(r) hands, but much will depend on the individuals she appoints around her. If she does as expected and plays it safe in her choices, the markets will breathe a sigh of relief. Trump on the other hand, would be a wildcard president and one that few investors would welcome.“A Clinton win would put America in safe(r) hands, but much will depend on the individuals she appoints around her. If she does as expected and plays it safe in her choices, the markets will breathe a sigh of relief. Trump on the other hand, would be a wildcard president and one that few investors would welcome.
Trump’s policies would likely see a destabilised financial system and damaged international trade relationships. It’s not all doom and gloom though – Trump’s pro-business taxation policies may mitigate some of the damage done to the wider economy.Trump’s policies would likely see a destabilised financial system and damaged international trade relationships. It’s not all doom and gloom though – Trump’s pro-business taxation policies may mitigate some of the damage done to the wider economy.
Caxton FX analyst Alexandra Russell-Oliver predicts that the US dollar could fall by up to 10% against the pound.Caxton FX analyst Alexandra Russell-Oliver predicts that the US dollar could fall by up to 10% against the pound.
A 5%-10% drop in the value of the US dollar is entirely possible should Trump be elected on November 8th.A 5%-10% drop in the value of the US dollar is entirely possible should Trump be elected on November 8th.
In terms of the bigger picture, the global implications of this swing in the market becomes a huge issue for countries with US dollar denominated debt in the emerging market amongst others. Should we be trading at 1.2500 just prior to the election, we could be seeing a trading range between 1.3100 and 1.3500 in the instant aftermath of the result.In terms of the bigger picture, the global implications of this swing in the market becomes a huge issue for countries with US dollar denominated debt in the emerging market amongst others. Should we be trading at 1.2500 just prior to the election, we could be seeing a trading range between 1.3100 and 1.3500 in the instant aftermath of the result.
However...there’s also a chance that panicky investors might pile into the US dollar in search of safety.However...there’s also a chance that panicky investors might pile into the US dollar in search of safety.
Caxton FX: "A 5%-10% drop in the value of the US dollar is entirely possible should Trump be elected on November 8th" - hmmmmmmCaxton FX: "A 5%-10% drop in the value of the US dollar is entirely possible should Trump be elected on November 8th" - hmmmmmm
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.00am GMTat 11.00am GMT
9.51am GMT9.51am GMT
09:5109:51
Toblerone in Brexit shrinkage shockerToblerone in Brexit shrinkage shocker
If there’s one thing that agitates Britons more than the US presidential election, it’s a change to their favourite chocolate.If there’s one thing that agitates Britons more than the US presidential election, it’s a change to their favourite chocolate.
And there’s quite an outcry this morning, as people realise that Toblerone has cut the size of some of its bars, and hiked the prices too.And there’s quite an outcry this morning, as people realise that Toblerone has cut the size of some of its bars, and hiked the prices too.
This follows fall in the pound since the EU referendum, and frankly the redesign looks like an Photoshopped vision of post-Brexit gloom:This follows fall in the pound since the EU referendum, and frankly the redesign looks like an Photoshopped vision of post-Brexit gloom:
Toblerone cut its 170g bars to 150g and its 400g bars to 360g only in UK after post Brexit £ slide forced up costs pic.twitter.com/jjNztu3RBTToblerone cut its 170g bars to 150g and its 400g bars to 360g only in UK after post Brexit £ slide forced up costs pic.twitter.com/jjNztu3RBT
Fans are venting their anger, with one claiming that it’s one of the “dumbest corporate decisions of all time”.....Fans are venting their anger, with one claiming that it’s one of the “dumbest corporate decisions of all time”.....
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.04am GMTat 11.04am GMT
9.43am GMT9.43am GMT
09:4309:43
Newsflash: British industrial output fell unexpectedly in September, but manufacturing managed a small revival.Newsflash: British industrial output fell unexpectedly in September, but manufacturing managed a small revival.
The Office for National Statistics reports that industrial production shrank by 0.4%, due to a decline in mining and quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.The Office for National Statistics reports that industrial production shrank by 0.4%, due to a decline in mining and quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
But encouragingly, manufacturing output rose by 0.6% during the month.But encouragingly, manufacturing output rose by 0.6% during the month.
Better news for monthly UK Manufacturing production "an increase in manufacturing of 0.6%."Better news for monthly UK Manufacturing production "an increase in manufacturing of 0.6%."
Senior ONS statistician Kate Davies says we shouldn’t draw any sweeping conclusions about Brexit, though:Senior ONS statistician Kate Davies says we shouldn’t draw any sweeping conclusions about Brexit, though:
“Manufacturing was broadly flat across the third quarter while oil and gas were weak overall, with widespread summer maintenance shutdowns hampering production more than usual.“Manufacturing was broadly flat across the third quarter while oil and gas were weak overall, with widespread summer maintenance shutdowns hampering production more than usual.
“There are no obvious signs so far of either the weaker pound or post-referendum uncertainties affecting the output of UK factories, which continued broadly in line with recent trends.”“There are no obvious signs so far of either the weaker pound or post-referendum uncertainties affecting the output of UK factories, which continued broadly in line with recent trends.”
9.30am GMT9.30am GMT
09:3009:30
Today could be a pretty dull trading session in Europe, warns Connor Campbell of SpreadEx:Today could be a pretty dull trading session in Europe, warns Connor Campbell of SpreadEx:
The morning session could be a bit of a duff one this Tuesday, given that nothing concrete from the US in terms state-voting etc is going to be out until this evening. It is likely going to be one of those days where the seismic nature of an event renders the market inert for around 24 hours.The morning session could be a bit of a duff one this Tuesday, given that nothing concrete from the US in terms state-voting etc is going to be out until this evening. It is likely going to be one of those days where the seismic nature of an event renders the market inert for around 24 hours.
9.15am GMT9.15am GMT
09:1509:15
The pound has risen 0.3% against the US dollar this morning, to $1.2424, recovering some of yesterday’s selloff.The pound has risen 0.3% against the US dollar this morning, to $1.2424, recovering some of yesterday’s selloff.
But generally the currency markets are pretty calm.But generally the currency markets are pretty calm.
BNY Mellon currency strategist Neil Mellor says:BNY Mellon currency strategist Neil Mellor says:
“The markets are in lockdown mode at the moment.“The markets are in lockdown mode at the moment.
There’s a little tentativeness ahead of the election even though polls are giving Clinton the lead.”There’s a little tentativeness ahead of the election even though polls are giving Clinton the lead.”
8.54am GMT8.54am GMT
08:5408:54
European markets eerily calm this morningEuropean markets eerily calm this morning
European stock markets are as flat as an American pancake in early trading (but nowhere near as delicious).European stock markets are as flat as an American pancake in early trading (but nowhere near as delicious).
The FTSE 100 index has crept up just 3 points, having jumped by 113 points yesterday. The German and French markets are equally dull, while the Italian FTSE MIB has dipped a little.The FTSE 100 index has crept up just 3 points, having jumped by 113 points yesterday. The German and French markets are equally dull, while the Italian FTSE MIB has dipped a little.
Yesterday’s rally was driven by the news that the FBI had cleared Hillary Clinton over her email server, following a second probe. Now, investors are wondering if the polling are right - they give the Democratic nominee a three point lead nationally.Yesterday’s rally was driven by the news that the FBI had cleared Hillary Clinton over her email server, following a second probe. Now, investors are wondering if the polling are right - they give the Democratic nominee a three point lead nationally.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says that memories of the British EU referendum are still fresh:Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says that memories of the British EU referendum are still fresh:
With the finishing line now in sight financial markets are reacting as if a Clinton win is a done deal, in eerie echoes of the lead-up to the June UK Brexit vote, as markets priced in the preservation of some form of status quo, and we all know how that ended.With the finishing line now in sight financial markets are reacting as if a Clinton win is a done deal, in eerie echoes of the lead-up to the June UK Brexit vote, as markets priced in the preservation of some form of status quo, and we all know how that ended.
8.45am GMT8.45am GMT
08:4508:45
Financial traders are pretty confident that Hillary Clinton will win, according to spread-betting firm IG’s presidential barometer.Financial traders are pretty confident that Hillary Clinton will win, according to spread-betting firm IG’s presidential barometer.
It shows that Clinton now has an 81% chance of success, based on IG clients’ trades:It shows that Clinton now has an 81% chance of success, based on IG clients’ trades:
8.24am GMT8.24am GMT
08:2408:24
City experts are predicting a small rally if Clinton wins the presidency, and a whopping selloff if Trump triumphs.City experts are predicting a small rally if Clinton wins the presidency, and a whopping selloff if Trump triumphs.
8.24am GMT8.24am GMT
08:2408:24
Today isn’t just about the presidential race, of course. City investors are also watching Congressional elections, to see who wins control of Capitol Hill.Today isn’t just about the presidential race, of course. City investors are also watching Congressional elections, to see who wins control of Capitol Hill.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe the Republicans will retain their grip on the lower house of Congress.Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe the Republicans will retain their grip on the lower house of Congress.
In terms of the Senate, Republicans are currently slightly edging out Democrats 51-49 in “no toss-ups” polling. But while the Presidency and Senate are seemingly too close to call, the House looks very likely to remain decidedly in Republican control—they are ahead 224 to the Democrats’ 190, not including the 21 toss-ups.In terms of the Senate, Republicans are currently slightly edging out Democrats 51-49 in “no toss-ups” polling. But while the Presidency and Senate are seemingly too close to call, the House looks very likely to remain decidedly in Republican control—they are ahead 224 to the Democrats’ 190, not including the 21 toss-ups.
Thus, Republicans can achieve a majority of 218 seats without winning any of the toss-ups.Thus, Republicans can achieve a majority of 218 seats without winning any of the toss-ups.
That would potentially make it rather harder for Hillary Clinton to push policies through, should she beat Donald Trump tonight.That would potentially make it rather harder for Hillary Clinton to push policies through, should she beat Donald Trump tonight.
8.06am GMT8.06am GMT
08:0608:06
The agenda: Clinton vs Trump looms over the marketsThe agenda: Clinton vs Trump looms over the markets
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
There’s only one event on everyone’s mind today, of course, the US presidential elections.There’s only one event on everyone’s mind today, of course, the US presidential elections.
And global stock markets looks decidedly nervous this morning as America heads to the polls after one of the more vicious and occasionally unedifying campaigns.And global stock markets looks decidedly nervous this morning as America heads to the polls after one of the more vicious and occasionally unedifying campaigns.
Last night, the US stock market posted its best one-day jump since March, with the Dow Jones index rising by 2%.Last night, the US stock market posted its best one-day jump since March, with the Dow Jones index rising by 2%.
But investors appears to be hunkering down today as they wait to see whether the polls are right, and Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump to the White House.But investors appears to be hunkering down today as they wait to see whether the polls are right, and Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump to the White House.
European stock markets are looking becalmed right now, after a lacklustre day in Asia which saw Japan’s Nikkei dip 5 points, or 0.03%.European stock markets are looking becalmed right now, after a lacklustre day in Asia which saw Japan’s Nikkei dip 5 points, or 0.03%.
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6811 up 4$DAX 10469 up 12$CAC 4464 up 2$IBEX 8941 up 22$MIB 16784 up 47Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6811 up 4$DAX 10469 up 12$CAC 4464 up 2$IBEX 8941 up 22$MIB 16784 up 47
Investors can remember the shock of 24th June, when predictions that Britain would vote to remain in the EU came badly unstuck.Investors can remember the shock of 24th June, when predictions that Britain would vote to remain in the EU came badly unstuck.
Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets sums up the situation:Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets sums up the situation:
Asian markets have struggled for traction overnight, unable to build on Monday’s gains, with momentum fading. Memories of a surprise Brexit result are too fresh to ignore at this late stage and polls so tight.Asian markets have struggled for traction overnight, unable to build on Monday’s gains, with momentum fading. Memories of a surprise Brexit result are too fresh to ignore at this late stage and polls so tight.
Sell-off + rebound shows which way mkts want #Election2016 to go. But current trading shows once bitten, twice shy after Brexit surpriseSell-off + rebound shows which way mkts want #Election2016 to go. But current trading shows once bitten, twice shy after Brexit surprise
Clinton has enjoyed an early success, claiming the (tiny) constituency of Dixville Notch by four votes to two!Clinton has enjoyed an early success, claiming the (tiny) constituency of Dixville Notch by four votes to two!
Dixville Notch #USElections2016 results! Clinton: 4 votes; Trump: 2; Johnson: 1; Mitt Romney (write-in!): 1 https://t.co/h1hnzOV5QzDixville Notch #USElections2016 results! Clinton: 4 votes; Trump: 2; Johnson: 1; Mitt Romney (write-in!): 1 https://t.co/h1hnzOV5Qz
But that won’t be enough -- the election will be decided in key battlegrounds like Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio. If Trump performs surprisingly well in those states, things could get very ‘interesting’.But that won’t be enough -- the election will be decided in key battlegrounds like Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio. If Trump performs surprisingly well in those states, things could get very ‘interesting’.
We’re already liveblogging all the action from the US, here.We’re already liveblogging all the action from the US, here.
Also coming up today......Also coming up today......
High street retailer Marks & Spencer has announced a store closure programme as CEO Steve Rowe tries to breath new life into the chain.High street retailer Marks & Spencer has announced a store closure programme as CEO Steve Rowe tries to breath new life into the chain.
M&S review: Rowe axing loss-making owned overseas stores and plan to shake up 25% of floor space devoted to clothing and homeM&S review: Rowe axing loss-making owned overseas stores and plan to shake up 25% of floor space devoted to clothing and home
Big changes at M&S on back of falling sales. 30 UK high st stores to close, 45 reconfigured Simply Food. Exiting international business.Big changes at M&S on back of falling sales. 30 UK high st stores to close, 45 reconfigured Simply Food. Exiting international business.
A looooong-awaited report into Royal Bank of Scotland has shown how the bank mistreated some small customers, following allegations that some were deliberately driven into bankrupcy. RBS is paying £400m compensation.A looooong-awaited report into Royal Bank of Scotland has shown how the bank mistreated some small customers, following allegations that some were deliberately driven into bankrupcy. RBS is paying £400m compensation.
RBS to take £400m hit to compensate small business customers; CEO says sorry for poor serviceRBS to take £400m hit to compensate small business customers; CEO says sorry for poor service
European finance ministers are holding an Ecofin meeting in Brussels this morning. They’ll be discussing plans to clamp down on corporate tax avoidance. Brexit isn’t on the agenda, but I guess it’ll be discussed in some quiet cornersEuropean finance ministers are holding an Ecofin meeting in Brussels this morning. They’ll be discussing plans to clamp down on corporate tax avoidance. Brexit isn’t on the agenda, but I guess it’ll be discussed in some quiet corners
And on the economic front, we’re getting new industrial production figures from Germany and the UK this morning.And on the economic front, we’re getting new industrial production figures from Germany and the UK this morning.
And at 3pm, the NIESR thinktank will estimate how quickly the UK economy grew in the August-to-October quarter.And at 3pm, the NIESR thinktank will estimate how quickly the UK economy grew in the August-to-October quarter.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.16am GMTat 8.16am GMT