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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/08/stock-markets-nervous-us-election-clinton-trump-rbs-marks-spencer-live
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| Stock markets nervously await election results – business live | Stock markets nervously await election results – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.00pm GMT | |
| 15:00 | |
| Away from the US election for a moment, and more signs of a slowing UK economy. | |
| The National Institute of Economic and Social Reseach has estimated that UK output grew by 0.4% in the three months to the end of October, compared to growth of 0.5% in the three months to September. | |
| The think tank’s Oriol Carreras said “Our estimates suggest the economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October. Robust consumer spending growth continues to support the economy. Looking ahead, this contribution from consumers is expected to wane over the course of next year due to a substantial rise in the rate of inflation.” | |
| Its latest quarterly forecast published earlier this month predicted GDP growth of 2% per annum in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017. | |
| 2.52pm GMT | |
| 14:52 | |
| 2.40pm GMT | |
| 14:40 | |
| No Clinton relief rally today (yet anyway) | |
| Dominic Rushe | |
| US markets have lost a bit of steam since yesterday’s euphoric rise on the news that the FBI would not re-open its inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s emails. | |
| The Dow Jones ended yesterday up 2%, the S&P 2.22% and the Nasdaq 2.37% as Clinton inched further ahead of Trump in the polls. | |
| As the bell rung on election day all the stock market indices are down a fraction of a percent. It’s going to be a long, nail-biting day on Wall Street. | |
| Separately...a former advisor to two former Republican president tweets: | |
| Please do not vote for the racist today. | |
| A former domestic policy adviser to Ronald Reagan and Treasury official under George H. W. Bush writes... #Election2016 https://t.co/NN0IxbpRqJ | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.40pm GMT | |
| 2.31pm GMT | |
| 14:31 | |
| Ding ding! The Wall Street opening bell is ringing, to start the election day trading session. | |
| The main indices are dipping around 0.2%in early trading. More in a moment.... | |
| 2.23pm GMT | 2.23pm GMT |
| 14:23 | 14:23 |
| Get up to speed with the Guardian's US election coverage | Get up to speed with the Guardian's US election coverage |
| You can get ready for tonight’s election drama with the Guardian’s ‘survival guide’,. | You can get ready for tonight’s election drama with the Guardian’s ‘survival guide’,. |
| It lays out when the key action should happen (complete with food and drink recommendations) | It lays out when the key action should happen (complete with food and drink recommendations) |
| We’ve also laid out five potential scenarios for the election, including how Donald Trump could be swept to the White House. | We’ve also laid out five potential scenarios for the election, including how Donald Trump could be swept to the White House. |
| And we’ve also analysed the latest opinion polls, including for crunch states such as Florida: | And we’ve also analysed the latest opinion polls, including for crunch states such as Florida: |
| 2.15pm GMT | 2.15pm GMT |
| 14:15 | 14:15 |
| Naeem Aslam of Think Markets says traders are acting like ‘zombies today’. | Naeem Aslam of Think Markets says traders are acting like ‘zombies today’. |
| He flags up that the ‘one week volatility’ in the US dollar-euro exchange rate has fallen sharply, since the FBI absolved Hillary Clinton of misconduct over her email server on Sunday night. | He flags up that the ‘one week volatility’ in the US dollar-euro exchange rate has fallen sharply, since the FBI absolved Hillary Clinton of misconduct over her email server on Sunday night. |
| However.... | However.... |
| this could change very much tomorrow if we do not get the expected outcome which is always a chief concern. | this could change very much tomorrow if we do not get the expected outcome which is always a chief concern. |
| Aslam also predicts that Wall Street would plunge sharply if Trump beats Clinton. | Aslam also predicts that Wall Street would plunge sharply if Trump beats Clinton. |
| If Trump wins the election, we are expecting the S&P500 to drop nearly 6.16 percent% and the picture will be even more vile for the emerging markets. | If Trump wins the election, we are expecting the S&P500 to drop nearly 6.16 percent% and the picture will be even more vile for the emerging markets. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.15pm GMT | at 2.15pm GMT |
| 2.10pm GMT | 2.10pm GMT |
| 14:10 | 14:10 |
| Traders have roused themselves from their US election torpor to drive shares in Marks & Spencer down by 4.3%. | Traders have roused themselves from their US election torpor to drive shares in Marks & Spencer down by 4.3%. |
| M&S are languishing at the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as the City shows little enthusiasm for its latest turnaround plan. | M&S are languishing at the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as the City shows little enthusiasm for its latest turnaround plan. |
| Steve Rowe the firm’s new CEO, has torn up M&S’s international ambitions, and will shut 53 overseas stores from China to Lithuania. | Steve Rowe the firm’s new CEO, has torn up M&S’s international ambitions, and will shut 53 overseas stores from China to Lithuania. |
| Rowe is also canning the clothing departments at 60 stores, as part of a new focus on food. | Rowe is also canning the clothing departments at 60 stores, as part of a new focus on food. |
| 1.55pm GMT | 1.55pm GMT |
| 13:55 | 13:55 |
| Given the lack of news, City traders could easily have taken today off. | Given the lack of news, City traders could easily have taken today off. |
| And looking at the stock market right now, maybe they already have! The blue-chip Footsie index is barely changed this morning, and sterling has dipped a little. | And looking at the stock market right now, maybe they already have! The blue-chip Footsie index is barely changed this morning, and sterling has dipped a little. |
| It could be the calm before the hurricane, though. Trading floors will be pretty lively places tomorrow morning, especially if there’s a shock result. | It could be the calm before the hurricane, though. Trading floors will be pretty lively places tomorrow morning, especially if there’s a shock result. |
| Paul Sirani, chief market analyst at Xtrade, explains: | Paul Sirani, chief market analyst at Xtrade, explains: |
| “The danger here of a Brexit-like shock is overblown; voter behaviour for one-off referendums is not comparable to that of routine elections. | “The danger here of a Brexit-like shock is overblown; voter behaviour for one-off referendums is not comparable to that of routine elections. |
| “However, if Trump is named the 45th President of the United States, then there’s certain to be traders running across the floor throwing papers in the air. An initial overreaction, comparable to the UK Brexit experience to-date, is likely before markets settle again.” | “However, if Trump is named the 45th President of the United States, then there’s certain to be traders running across the floor throwing papers in the air. An initial overreaction, comparable to the UK Brexit experience to-date, is likely before markets settle again.” |
| 1.40pm GMT | 1.40pm GMT |
| 13:40 | 13:40 |
| Betfair has seen a late flurry of wagers on Hillary Clinton who currently has a 78% chance of victory at its site. | Betfair has seen a late flurry of wagers on Hillary Clinton who currently has a 78% chance of victory at its site. |
| Barry Orr, Spokesperson for Betfair, says that 80% of presidential bets yesterday were on the Democratic candidate. | Barry Orr, Spokesperson for Betfair, says that 80% of presidential bets yesterday were on the Democratic candidate. |
| There’s been around £7m traded in the last 24 hours and with so much money coming into the market the odds are likely to continue to fluctuate throughout the day and into the night. | There’s been around £7m traded in the last 24 hours and with so much money coming into the market the odds are likely to continue to fluctuate throughout the day and into the night. |
| “With nearly £118m now traded it’s hard to see how it won’t surpass the £127m betting market record set by Brexit in June. It’s unlikely the market will trade anywhere near as much as Brexit did once polls were closed, which occasionally hit £10k per second, but if it does we would easily be looking at more than £150m total traded on the market. | “With nearly £118m now traded it’s hard to see how it won’t surpass the £127m betting market record set by Brexit in June. It’s unlikely the market will trade anywhere near as much as Brexit did once polls were closed, which occasionally hit £10k per second, but if it does we would easily be looking at more than £150m total traded on the market. |
| 1.28pm GMT | 1.28pm GMT |
| 13:28 | 13:28 |
| City firms prepare for all-nighter | City firms prepare for all-nighter |
| Many City traders are preparing for a sleepless night, to help deal with a rush of action once polling results come in. | Many City traders are preparing for a sleepless night, to help deal with a rush of action once polling results come in. |
| ETX Capital, for example, will be fully staffed overnight, and expects to face plenty of volatility. | ETX Capital, for example, will be fully staffed overnight, and expects to face plenty of volatility. |
| Analyst Neil Wilson explains: | Analyst Neil Wilson explains: |
| Market action could hinge on one or two moments - for example the Florida result, key for Trump’s chances for the presidency, is vitally important. | Market action could hinge on one or two moments - for example the Florida result, key for Trump’s chances for the presidency, is vitally important. |
| This will create some big opportunities in some of the most exposed markets, particularly around some of the key currency pairs, stocks and gold. | This will create some big opportunities in some of the most exposed markets, particularly around some of the key currency pairs, stocks and gold. |
| But a word of warning - there could be some wild gyrations in prices, making this potentially the most turbulent trading sessions since Brexit. Looking to the results, if key states start to lean towards Trump, we may see sizeable risk-off selling as investors flee to havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold. US government bond yields could sink and gold would soar. | But a word of warning - there could be some wild gyrations in prices, making this potentially the most turbulent trading sessions since Brexit. Looking to the results, if key states start to lean towards Trump, we may see sizeable risk-off selling as investors flee to havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold. US government bond yields could sink and gold would soar. |
| Turbulence could come quickly – polls in the vital swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina close between 7pm and 8pm (EST), which is midnight-1am GMT. You can expect markets to be highly sensitive to the results from these states. If they are called for either side early we will have a very clear idea about where the markets are headed. | Turbulence could come quickly – polls in the vital swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina close between 7pm and 8pm (EST), which is midnight-1am GMT. You can expect markets to be highly sensitive to the results from these states. If they are called for either side early we will have a very clear idea about where the markets are headed. |
| And if that’s not enough action, there’s also the England vs India test match! | And if that’s not enough action, there’s also the England vs India test match! |
| Plans for tonight mostly revolve around how to watch and listen to US election coverage while also listening to the 1st Test @bbctms | Plans for tonight mostly revolve around how to watch and listen to US election coverage while also listening to the 1st Test @bbctms |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.42pm GMT | at 1.42pm GMT |