This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/mar/04/italy-goes-to-the-polls-general-election-live

The article has changed 25 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 13 Version 14
Italy election: hung parliament on the cards as populist parties surge – live! Italy election: hung parliament on the cards as populist parties surge – live!
(35 minutes later)
Not a lot of reaction to the vote from outside Italy yet, except from the fringes:
Congratulations to my colleagues in the European Parliament @Mov5Stelle for topping the poll tonight.
Marine le Pen, leader of France’s far-right FN party, thinks the Italian election results translates into a bad night for the EU.
L’Union européenne va passer une mauvaise soirée... 😃 MLP #Italie🇮🇹 #Elezioni2018
The euro has recovered some lost ground and is trading at $1.232 so it’s looking like a bit of score-draw for the single currency so far.The euro has recovered some lost ground and is trading at $1.232 so it’s looking like a bit of score-draw for the single currency so far.
Sharon Zollner, ANZ chief economist in Auckland, said: “Italian election results are very unlikely to deliver an obvious coalition recipe, but the market is most concerned about the small chance that the euro-sceptic Five Star party could win and threaten the euro and Italian bonds.”Sharon Zollner, ANZ chief economist in Auckland, said: “Italian election results are very unlikely to deliver an obvious coalition recipe, but the market is most concerned about the small chance that the euro-sceptic Five Star party could win and threaten the euro and Italian bonds.”
It’s a bit of a different picture for the Italian stock market which seems set to fall sharply later today. Futures trading points to a 1.3% drop in the Italy 40 index of leading companies, according to online trader IG.It’s a bit of a different picture for the Italian stock market which seems set to fall sharply later today. Futures trading points to a 1.3% drop in the Italy 40 index of leading companies, according to online trader IG.
Italy’s ruling centre-left Democratic Party has admitted it had suffered a “clear defeat” in a general election after coming in third according to projections.Italy’s ruling centre-left Democratic Party has admitted it had suffered a “clear defeat” in a general election after coming in third according to projections.
“This is a very clear defeat for us,” Maurizio Martina, a minister in the outgoing government, told reporters.“This is a very clear defeat for us,” Maurizio Martina, a minister in the outgoing government, told reporters.
“We are expecting a result below our expectations... This is very clearly a negative result for us,” he said.“We are expecting a result below our expectations... This is very clearly a negative result for us,” he said.
A centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party was projected to score just 23.1%, after the main right-wing alliance at 35.5% and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 32.5%.A centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party was projected to score just 23.1%, after the main right-wing alliance at 35.5% and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 32.5%.
“Voters have spoken very clearly and irrefutably. The populists have won and the Democratic Party has lost,” Andrea Marcucci, one of the party’s lawmakers in the outgoing parliament, wrote on his Facebook page.“Voters have spoken very clearly and irrefutably. The populists have won and the Democratic Party has lost,” Andrea Marcucci, one of the party’s lawmakers in the outgoing parliament, wrote on his Facebook page.
Officials results are not expected to be finalised for several hours, but projections seem to point to a hung parliament, after Italians ditched traditional centrist parties.Officials results are not expected to be finalised for several hours, but projections seem to point to a hung parliament, after Italians ditched traditional centrist parties.
More than 50% of Italians voters supported populist parties.More than 50% of Italians voters supported populist parties.
The single party predicted to secure the most votes is the Five Star Movement, with about 32%. The anti-establishment party was founded nine years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo.The single party predicted to secure the most votes is the Five Star Movement, with about 32%. The anti-establishment party was founded nine years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo.
A coalition of centre-right parties, led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition and including the xenophobic League, is expected to win up to 36% of the vote.A coalition of centre-right parties, led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition and including the xenophobic League, is expected to win up to 36% of the vote.
Early data shows League (17.5%) gaining more votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14.4%), giving its firebrand chief Matteo Salvini a chance to lead the coalition and be its candidate for prime minister.Early data shows League (17.5%) gaining more votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14.4%), giving its firebrand chief Matteo Salvini a chance to lead the coalition and be its candidate for prime minister.
The centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election, slumping to about 19% of the vote.The centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election, slumping to about 19% of the vote.
There are several parliamentary combinations that could be cobbled together to win a majority of seats, many of which would pair unlikely bedfellows. Under some scenarios, the Five Star Movement could combine with Renzi’s Democratic party to get to above 50%.There are several parliamentary combinations that could be cobbled together to win a majority of seats, many of which would pair unlikely bedfellows. Under some scenarios, the Five Star Movement could combine with Renzi’s Democratic party to get to above 50%.
However, the M5S has previously said it would not take part in a coalition government.However, the M5S has previously said it would not take part in a coalition government.
As a result of the confusion in Italy, which is unlikely to resolved for weeks, the Euro was set for a choppy trading session.As a result of the confusion in Italy, which is unlikely to resolved for weeks, the Euro was set for a choppy trading session.
M5S is looking like it has won the most votes of any single party. Stephanie Kirchgaessner has more on the anti-establishment party and its links to Russia:M5S is looking like it has won the most votes of any single party. Stephanie Kirchgaessner has more on the anti-establishment party and its links to Russia:
I'm reviving this story I wrote more than a year ago about the M5S and its sympathy for the Kremlin. Suddenly, it's a lot more relevant. https://t.co/wOErErWSfxI'm reviving this story I wrote more than a year ago about the M5S and its sympathy for the Kremlin. Suddenly, it's a lot more relevant. https://t.co/wOErErWSfx
So, if Italy does get a hung parliament, how long could negotiations over forming government take?So, if Italy does get a hung parliament, how long could negotiations over forming government take?
Since 1992 it's taken an average of 51 days to form a new government in Italy. Nice chart from JPMorgan. Thanks @abdroma on https://t.co/uEYsxU153s #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/7Tf1Ur6EuiSince 1992 it's taken an average of 51 days to form a new government in Italy. Nice chart from JPMorgan. Thanks @abdroma on https://t.co/uEYsxU153s #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/7Tf1Ur6Eui
Here is how news organisations around Europe are interpreting the events of the night, while La Stampa headlined its election summary: “Ungovernable Italy”.Here is how news organisations around Europe are interpreting the events of the night, while La Stampa headlined its election summary: “Ungovernable Italy”.
Financial Times pic.twitter.com/JUBeA7LCMsFinancial Times pic.twitter.com/JUBeA7LCMs
Deutsche Welle pic.twitter.com/FixBvS2YRUDeutsche Welle pic.twitter.com/FixBvS2YRU
El Pais pic.twitter.com/BIoCC6Zd50El Pais pic.twitter.com/BIoCC6Zd50
Le Monde pic.twitter.com/hpvFYPYKR6Le Monde pic.twitter.com/hpvFYPYKR6
M5S has had a particularly good night in the south of the country.M5S has had a particularly good night in the south of the country.
43. M5S is massively winning in almost all Southern Italy districts (in some with a stunning 50% of votes) and now it is expanding in some Center Italy areas too (like Marche region). What a powerful performance.#ItalyElection201843. M5S is massively winning in almost all Southern Italy districts (in some with a stunning 50% of votes) and now it is expanding in some Center Italy areas too (like Marche region). What a powerful performance.#ItalyElection2018
La nostra mappa interattiva dei collegi del Senato su @SkyTG24 si colora sempre di più (i dati arrivano prima rispetto a quelli della Camera)➡️ https://t.co/70YQx5CoE5#Elezioni4Marzo2018#elezioni2018#MaratonaYouTrend pic.twitter.com/fl9HHBP4RtLa nostra mappa interattiva dei collegi del Senato su @SkyTG24 si colora sempre di più (i dati arrivano prima rispetto a quelli della Camera)➡️ https://t.co/70YQx5CoE5#Elezioni4Marzo2018#elezioni2018#MaratonaYouTrend pic.twitter.com/fl9HHBP4Rt
In the midst of an eventful night, our Italy correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has paused to ponder what is next for the country?In the midst of an eventful night, our Italy correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has paused to ponder what is next for the country?
Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi.Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi.
But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties.But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties.
The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected.The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected.
Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government.Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government.
You can read her full analysis here:You can read her full analysis here:
Here are the latest projections for the make-up of the chamber of deputies:Here are the latest projections for the make-up of the chamber of deputies:
39. (New projections confirm exit polls' trend. It is getting more and more realistic)ITALY 1ST RESULT PROJECTION CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (SWG-LA7)M5S 32.1%PD 19%LEGA 17.5%BERLUSCONI 14.1%FDI 4.1%LEU 3.5%#ItalyElection201839. (New projections confirm exit polls' trend. It is getting more and more realistic)ITALY 1ST RESULT PROJECTION CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (SWG-LA7)M5S 32.1%PD 19%LEGA 17.5%BERLUSCONI 14.1%FDI 4.1%LEU 3.5%#ItalyElection2018
The Italian Parliament looks so serene in the Roman night. From tomorrow, it will be a rather messy place. #ItalianElections2018 pic.twitter.com/j5ACWcm7cf
The euro is set for a choppy trading session after the strong showing by the 5-Star Movement and other populists. The single currency jumped earlier when it was confirmed that Germany had finally got itself a new grand coalition.
It reached $1.23655 but has fallen 0.1% in the last hour or so to $1.2309 as traders digest the significance of a likely hung parliament after an election that saw more than half of the country’s voters back parties outside the mainstream. It’s now up slightly against the pound at €1.118.
Euro turns negative as #Italy election could become a major headache for #Eurozone. pic.twitter.com/wz537Ia8c5
M5S until recently supported a referendum on whether Italy, the eurozone’s third biggest economy, should withdraw from the currency bloc. And while it says the time for such a vote has passed, the rightwing League still wants Italy to pull out.
The group formerly known as the Northern League is in Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition, which is projected to have won about 36% of the vote, and could form the next government.
The #euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the populist and anti-EU surge / victory in the Italian election polls and seat projections https://t.co/axXhaMVHyJ pic.twitter.com/EAlKFJWTFw
Our correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has some interesting detail on Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League (formerly the Northern League).
No one is handing Salvini the keys to Palazzo Chigi just yet. But the far right leader, who has called for mass deportations and once supported segregated buses "for the Milanese", appears to have had a very good night. Migrants, as we know, are always an easy target to get votes https://t.co/EmNHGzvQ2N
For Salvini, this could just be the beginning. More than any other Italian politician, he's got room to grow in influence and support. He stands ready to eventually fill the Berlusconi vacuum. He is close to the Kremlin and like Trump has adopted a slogan of "Italians first". https://t.co/cvgyhJOyRO
As thoughts move towards negotiations over power and power sharing, journalist Lorezo Tondo has a very good question:
M5S is officially the leading party in Italy’s elections but it had vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. Alessandro Di Battista, a leader of M5S, is welcoming other parties ‘to come talk to us’.But the question is, to whom does M5S want to listen?#ItalyElection2018
Analysts say early projections from Italy’s election indicate that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome and that the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement’s strong showing may send a negative signal to financial markets.
Wolfango Piccoli of the Teneo consultancy told the Associated Press that building a majority in the Italian parliament “will be hard if not impossible,” and that tough negotiations were expected.
The early projections had the 5-Star Movement as the strongest single party but a centre-right coalition comprising three parties was leading overall. Neither have enough of a lead to govern alone.
Economic analyst Lorenzo Codogno, a former Treasury official, said the 5-Star’s showing was better than expected and that “financial markets are likely to take these figures negatively.”
He warned that talks on forming a government would be “long and complex.”
This seems slightly too soon, considering most balls are still in the air and no one is quite sure where they will land ...
Head of Forza Italia group of MPs confirms that if Lega largest party (most seats) in centre-right coalition, Salvini would be the bloc's PM-candidate. #ItalianElections
Here is a good summary of where we are now:
36. UPDATE. There are still many IFs, but here are a few certain things in this #ItalyElection2018 - M5S 1st party- Centre-right 1st coalition- Italy split in 3- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes- Renzi's PD collapsing- Perfect hung parliament looming
Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote.
The R-wing League party got 4% of the vote in 2013. Now they've basically tripled that. Even if Berlusconi's Forza Italia places ahead of them, the League has owned the election debate on immigration. Berlusconi followed their lead on those issues, even if maybe unconvincingly.
The Associated Press reports that a senior leader of the Five Star Movement has hailed the exit poll data as a “triumph” for his party.
Addressing supporters early on Monday, Alessandro Di Battista said the anti-establishment movement was the leading party in Italy’s election.
But the 30% support indicated by a RAI state TV exit poll is far short of the absolute majority needed to form Italy’s next government.
M5S has officially vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. But Di Battista welcomed other parties to come talk as long as they use Five Star “methods” of “transparency” and “correctness” in political conduct.
One possible partner is the anti-migrant League led by Matteo Salvini. He is jostling with Silvio Berlusconi for leadership of the centre-right bloc.
Our Italian correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has wrapped up the developments so far. The main message is that Italian voters, who have traditionally been risk averse, are ready to ditch the big mainstream parties, and that the centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election.
About 50% of Italians who voted in the national elections supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, according to early election exit polls and voter projections.
The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the 81-year-old former prime minister, or a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League – would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government.
The exit polls showed Berlusconi’s coalition – which includes the Northern League – winning up to 36% of the vote, a result that could potentially help the billionaire media magnate clinch a fourth election victory under a complicated new Italian election law.
Analysts were also poring over early data that showed a potential political upset: Matteo Salvini, the firebrand head of La Lega – as the League is now known – beating out Berlusconi within the centre-right coalition.
Under a “gentleman’s agreement”, whoever emerges as the winner between the two will choose the next prime minister, if the coalition were to win a majority.