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Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live! Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live!
(35 minutes later)
Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote.
The R-wing League party got 4% of the vote in 2013. Now they've basically tripled that. Even if Berlusconi's Forza Italia places ahead of them, the League has owned the election debate on immigration. Berlusconi followed their lead on those issues, even if maybe unconvincingly.
The Associated Press reports that a senior leader of the Five Star Movement has hailed the exit poll data as a “triumph” for his party.
Addressing supporters early on Monday, Alessandro Di Battista said the anti-establishment movement was the leading party in Italy’s election.
But the 30% support indicated by a RAI state TV exit poll is far short of the absolute majority needed to form Italy’s next government.
M5S has officially vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. But Di Battista welcomed other parties to come talk as long as they use Five Star “methods” of “transparency” and “correctness” in political conduct.
One possible partner is the anti-migrant League led by Matteo Salvini. He is jostling with Silvio Berlusconi for leadership of the centre-right bloc.
Our Italian correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has wrapped up the developments so far. The main message is that Italian voters, who have traditionally been risk averse, are ready to ditch the big mainstream parties, and that the centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election.
About 50% of Italians who voted in the national elections supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, according to early election exit polls and voter projections.
The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the 81-year-old former prime minister, or a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League – would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government.
The exit polls showed Berlusconi’s coalition – which includes the Northern League – winning up to 36% of the vote, a result that could potentially help the billionaire media magnate clinch a fourth election victory under a complicated new Italian election law.
Analysts were also poring over early data that showed a potential political upset: Matteo Salvini, the firebrand head of La Lega – as the League is now known – beating out Berlusconi within the centre-right coalition.
Under a “gentleman’s agreement”, whoever emerges as the winner between the two will choose the next prime minister, if the coalition were to win a majority.
Several election watchers are predicting a hung parliament and weeks of horse trading ahead.
Ok, Italy basically has a hung Parliament. The populists and far-right have done very well, the center has not, the trend is worrisome, it'll take weeks to see what government might emerge. Over to you in LA, folks, to follow the Oscars.
Overheard: "this is bad hung"
Define “hung parliament”#ItalyElection #Elections2018 #Italyelection2018 @guardian pic.twitter.com/GsNy9R2EBP
So, what exactly is the Five Star Movement?
The anti-establisment party, started by comedian Beppe Grillo, burst on to the political scene in 2012 and has gone from strength to strength. The 69-year-old remains a figurehead, though he has handed over leadership to sharp-suited disciple Luigi Di Maio.
Since its beginnings, the party has experienced a meteoric rise to prominence amid an outpouring of frustration and anger towards mainstream political parties.
The movement calls itself “the first and only political party based on online participation and direct democracy.” Using an internet portal called Rousseau, M5S uses online votes of members to decide its policies, draft legislation and candidates.
M5S is proposing a universal basic income of €780 ($963) a month for those living in poverty.
M5S supports a hotchpotch of policies from across the political spectrum and has gained a reputation for political flip-flopping, leading their critics to brand them as immature and incompetent. The party had promised its supporters a referendum on leaving the eurozone, but has had a change of heart in recent months.
M5S is currently projected to be the single party with the largest share of votes in the election. You can read more about its moment of truth here:
The complicated picture in Italy has had a knock-on effect on the markets.The complicated picture in Italy has had a knock-on effect on the markets.
The euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the Italian election exit polls and seat projections https://t.co/Ly350lZKHt pic.twitter.com/kJ8bSJWHlxThe euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the Italian election exit polls and seat projections https://t.co/Ly350lZKHt pic.twitter.com/kJ8bSJWHlx
Hello, it’s Bonnie here taking over the blog from Jon. As he said, nothing is certain at this stage and it won’t be for some time. But the broad theme based on projections is that it has been a good night so far for populist, anti-establishment parties and a bad one for the incumbent centre left.Hello, it’s Bonnie here taking over the blog from Jon. As he said, nothing is certain at this stage and it won’t be for some time. But the broad theme based on projections is that it has been a good night so far for populist, anti-establishment parties and a bad one for the incumbent centre left.
Anti-EU, anti-immigration Lega appears to have done well as has the anti-establishment 5 Star movement. Hung parliament probable. But given that the coalitions are loose/informal, it’s possible that smaller parties could club together or switch allegiances to muster a majority.Anti-EU, anti-immigration Lega appears to have done well as has the anti-establishment 5 Star movement. Hung parliament probable. But given that the coalitions are loose/informal, it’s possible that smaller parties could club together or switch allegiances to muster a majority.
It looks like we’re in for a long night, and very probably several long weeks of coalition talks:It looks like we’re in for a long night, and very probably several long weeks of coalition talks:
I'll summarize what the men on Italian TV are saying on #elezioni2018 (which, btw, I already anticipated in @TheAtlantic): Center-R (Berlusconi) & Center-L (Renzi) way down. Anti-establishment 5-Star (Di Maio) & far-R League (Salvini) way up. No majority to form a government.I'll summarize what the men on Italian TV are saying on #elezioni2018 (which, btw, I already anticipated in @TheAtlantic): Center-R (Berlusconi) & Center-L (Renzi) way down. Anti-establishment 5-Star (Di Maio) & far-R League (Salvini) way up. No majority to form a government.
I’m handing this live blog over now to my colleague Bonnie Malkin who will take you through to the European morning. Thanks for staying with us.I’m handing this live blog over now to my colleague Bonnie Malkin who will take you through to the European morning. Thanks for staying with us.
“Better a pig than a fascist” reads the poster on display in a radical left community centre in Palermo, Sicily, where antifascists are awaiting the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo.“Better a pig than a fascist” reads the poster on display in a radical left community centre in Palermo, Sicily, where antifascists are awaiting the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo.
Political violence has been increasing in Italy in recent weeks between fascists and leftwing activists, including an attack on one of the leaders of the far-right group Forza Nuova in Palermo.Political violence has been increasing in Italy in recent weeks between fascists and leftwing activists, including an attack on one of the leaders of the far-right group Forza Nuova in Palermo.
Live from #ballarò #arci porco rosso#elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 #maratonamentana pic.twitter.com/UDXZBoP4yMLive from #ballarò #arci porco rosso#elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 #maratonamentana pic.twitter.com/UDXZBoP4yM
“Like in other countries across Europe, the right wing is taking over,” said Tommaso Mazzara, 30, a radical left activist in Palermo. “If M5S wins they are going to get the support of the right to stay in power. And that’s a huge problem.’’“Like in other countries across Europe, the right wing is taking over,” said Tommaso Mazzara, 30, a radical left activist in Palermo. “If M5S wins they are going to get the support of the right to stay in power. And that’s a huge problem.’’
Irene Russotto, 28, a medical student, said: “These exit polls are dramatic. If M5Stars wins the elections, I don’t think they are going to have the political experience to govern. The country is heading dangerously towards the radical right.’’Irene Russotto, 28, a medical student, said: “These exit polls are dramatic. If M5Stars wins the elections, I don’t think they are going to have the political experience to govern. The country is heading dangerously towards the radical right.’’
In Rome, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has been speaking to a top election expert, Giovanni Orsina from Luiss University, who cautions that it is far early to make any bold predictions and still believes a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.In Rome, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has been speaking to a top election expert, Giovanni Orsina from Luiss University, who cautions that it is far early to make any bold predictions and still believes a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.
But Orsina believes the populists have done better than expected:But Orsina believes the populists have done better than expected:
What is quite clear is that the centre left were punished. Italy has made real gains in the economy and in unemployment, but voters did not buy it. At least, not a majority of them.What is quite clear is that the centre left were punished. Italy has made real gains in the economy and in unemployment, but voters did not buy it. At least, not a majority of them.
The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.”The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.”
La mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQpLa mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQp
The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing:The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing:
RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1
But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else:But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else:
Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros?Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros?
Here is Guardian Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s first considered take on the confused, and confusing, early picture emerging from this election:
About 50% of Italians who voted in national elections on Sunday supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, but victory still looked within reach for a coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, according to early election polls.
While it was still far too early to predict whether the 81-year-old’s centre right coalition would have enough support to cross the threshold to victory, the exit polls indicated that the former prime minister could clinch a win following a campaign that promised a tough new approach to the migrant crisis.
Regardless of the final outcome, the exit polls appeared to reveal a monumental shift in a majority of Italian voters, who have traditionally sided with big mainstream parties.
The Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party that was founded by former comedian Beppe Grillo and has voiced deep scepticism about the euro and Italy’s role in Nata, appeared to have won between 29-31% of the votes, according to the early exit polls.
It seems one possible coalition - and not completely outlandish, given that it looks like around 50% of voters have cast their ballots for populist, anti-establishment and/or far-right parties - could be the anti-immigration La Lega, anti-establishment Five Star, and nationalist Brothers of Italy.
That would shake things up.
Another number to watch, should Berlusconi’s right-wing alliance win the day: will his major ally, La Lega, take more votes than Forza Italia? The exit polls, unreliable as we must stress they are, suggest that might be the case.
And once again, a note of caution. The night is yet young, and a lot can and, most likely, will change:
Things to remember about the Italian election:1. Exit polls aren’t totally reliable2. Seats are allocated by proportional representation AND first-past-the-post.3. So percentages don’t necessarily translate into number of seats.4. Results can differ between the two houses.
Hot takes on what to make of the early polls (bearing in mind exit polls last time around were up to seven points adrift of the final results), from Stephanie Kirschgaessner and the Economist’s John Hooper in Rome:
Berlusconi's centre right coalition could yet win tonight. But exit polls also indicate a good night for the populists. If they are right, it means about 50% of Italians voted anti-establishment or far right populist.
RAI exit poll from #Italianelections2018 (range averages) M5S 31% (above expecations), PD 21.5% (pretty woeful) Forza Italia and Lega both on 14% and their coalition around 34.5% (below expectations). But remember: exit polls were inaccurate last time.
In Ballarò, a mafia stronghold market area in the historic centre of Palermo, mostly populated by migrants, asylum seekers anxiously awaited the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo.
The electoral campaign has been bad news for hundreds of young Africans, as the far-right parties have pledged to kick them out of the country. The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants.
Live from #ballarò #elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 pic.twitter.com/7rbBja9UpZ
Former PM Silvio Berlusconi pledged to deport 600,000 illegal immigrants from Italy, a “social bomb ready to explode”. Abdul Rahman, 27, from Gambia, said if the right wins, “it is going to be a disaster for us. We came here for a new start. If they win it’s the begin of the end.’’
The campaign has been marked by episodes of racism and political violence unseen in Italy since the 1970s, including the shooting of six migrants, an act described by the nationalist perpetrator as revenge for the murder of an Italian woman, allegedly by a migrant.
“I’ve just got my refugee status, and now I’m afraid to lose it,” said Mohammed, 24, from Egypt. Mamaodu, 20, from Senegal, added: “What do I expect from the elections if the right wins? I have my suitcase ready at home.”
Italy’s national public broadcaster, Rai, has roughly comparable numbers in its first exit poll:
M5S 29%-32%
Forza Italia 13-16%
Lega 13-16%
PD 20.5-23.5%
Polls have now closed in Italy’s general elections and the first exit polls show the anti-establishment Five Star Movement is the largest single party by a wide margin, with 28%-30% of the vote.
Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is on 13.5%-15.5%, and the far-right League – his allies – on 12.3%-14.3%
Here we go pic.twitter.com/Z0M8ZNrLY7
Exit polls are expected imminently. Here’s another pundit’s take on what to watch out for:
3 things to watch when we'll get exit polls (in ~10m) #Italyelection20181) Has the League got more votes than Forza Italia? 2) How big is the 5 Star Movement lead? 3) Can Forza Italia and the PD form a grand coalition?
To which is swiftly added:
4) Can 5 Star Movement, Lega and Brothers of Italy form a anti-EU coalition?
As soon as the exit polls are out, the calculating will begin. In theory, a wide variety of combinations are possible to form Italy’s next government, but as Stephanie Kirchgaessner notes, some are more possible than others.
Bear in mind that the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has been forecast to finish as the largest single party on 25-27% of the vote, with the rightwing coalition between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-immigration La Lega (League) and its smaller far-right allies on course to be the largest bloc - but still short of an outright majority.
While it is widely expected to fare badly, Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic party (PD) is still part of the calculations:
Here is what people are gaming out. If there is no clear winner, what are the combos that get you a majority and which are just not going to happen? 1/2
One analyst suggested these would not: Berlusconi and M5S (too incompatible), PD and Lega, far left and Lega. What's possible but odd coupling? PD and M5S.
With just over half an hour to go until polls close, a useful reminder from the Guardian’s Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner that Italy’s exit polls have not always been very reliable - and with a new electoral system to contend with, they may be even less so:
Have Italian exit polls improved since 2013? We'll know around 5am. Last time around, M5S was underestimated.