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| Italy election: hung parliament on the cards as populist parties surge – live! | Italy election: hung parliament on the cards as populist parties surge – live! |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Lucio Malan a leading member of the right wing Forzia Italia has admitted the election result falls well below his party’s expectation. | |
| Forzia Italia looks set to be between 50 and 60 seats short of a majority. | |
| Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Malan said: “We expected a better result than that, to be closer to the majority or even to have the majority. Now we have to see what’s going to happen. We still have some opportunity to form a majority because a number of members of parliament might join, even if elected with other parties. But we still have to see. We hope will not to need that, but we’re going to see.” | |
| Asked who Forzia Italia will be negotiating with, Malan said: “Not parties, but probably single members of parties. The problem is with new elections we don’t see a big probability to have a more definite result. We might have some advantages with alliances with small parties, but it is difficult.” | |
| Malan predicted that another election was the most likely outcome from this inconclusive result. | |
| He urged the Five Star Movement to stop sitting on the fence about Europe. “They had a campaign where they were against and in favour of the European Union. Against and in favour of the Euro currency,” Malan said. | |
| The majority of districts have been counted but we don’t yet have an allocation of parliamentary seats. | |
| It looks like a hung parliament with the centre-right in the lead at 37.6%, Five Star with 31.6%, PD with 19.2% (anything under 20% was going to be dismal), and Bonino under 3% at 2.7%. | |
| The takeaways are it has been a very bad night for Europe, in a country that has always been very pro Europe. | |
| Mostly voters were sending a message against politicians, and were not swayed by pro-Europe arguments. It might also be true that the M5S and Lega sufficiently toned down their anti-euro rhetoric, easing voters’ reservations. But now what? | |
| As one of my go-to analyst’s just said on Twitter: the M5S now controls the South, the Lega (18.2%) is the driving force behind the centre-right. | |
| The PD and Lega essentially did equally well, which is stunning. Berlusconi performed worse than expected (around 13%). The centre left is broken. | |
| Officials results are not expected to be finalised for several hours, but projections seem to point to a hung parliament, after Italians deserted the traditional centre and more than 50% voted in support of populist parties. | Officials results are not expected to be finalised for several hours, but projections seem to point to a hung parliament, after Italians deserted the traditional centre and more than 50% voted in support of populist parties. |
| The single party predicted to secure the most votes is the Five Star Movement, with about 32%. The anti-establishment, euro-sceptic party was founded nine years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo. | The single party predicted to secure the most votes is the Five Star Movement, with about 32%. The anti-establishment, euro-sceptic party was founded nine years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo. |
| A coalition of centre-right parties, including former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and including the xenophobic League, is expected to win up to 36% of the vote. | A coalition of centre-right parties, including former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and including the xenophobic League, is expected to win up to 36% of the vote. |
| Early data shows League (17.5%) gaining more votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14.4%), giving its firebrand chief Matteo Salvini a chance to lead the coalition and become its candidate for prime minister. Salvini is due to give a press conference at midday. | Early data shows League (17.5%) gaining more votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14.4%), giving its firebrand chief Matteo Salvini a chance to lead the coalition and become its candidate for prime minister. Salvini is due to give a press conference at midday. |
| The centre-left Democratic Party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election, slumping to about 19% of the vote. Senior officials from the party have conceded defeat. | The centre-left Democratic Party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election, slumping to about 19% of the vote. Senior officials from the party have conceded defeat. |
| There are several parliamentary combinations that could be cobbled together to win a majority of seats, many of which would pair unlikely bedfellows. Under some scenarios, the Five Star Movement could combine with Renzi’s Democratic party to get to above 50%. | There are several parliamentary combinations that could be cobbled together to win a majority of seats, many of which would pair unlikely bedfellows. Under some scenarios, the Five Star Movement could combine with Renzi’s Democratic party to get to above 50%. |
| However, the M5S has previously said it would not take part in a coalition government. | However, the M5S has previously said it would not take part in a coalition government. |
| The La Stampa newspaper has declared on its front page that the nation is “ungovernable”, while Il Tempo laments “Che bordello”. | The La Stampa newspaper has declared on its front page that the nation is “ungovernable”, while Il Tempo laments “Che bordello”. |
| As a result of the confusion in Italy, which is unlikely to resolved for weeks, the Euro was set for a choppy trading session. | As a result of the confusion in Italy, which is unlikely to resolved for weeks, the Euro was set for a choppy trading session. |
| As Italy wakes, there are a lot of questions. Here are just a few of them: | As Italy wakes, there are a lot of questions. Here are just a few of them: |
| And also, what will Mattarella do? Will he give the M5S the first crack at forming a government, or a candidate chosen by the centre right, the winning coalition? https://t.co/mAt5cCJuN4 | And also, what will Mattarella do? Will he give the M5S the first crack at forming a government, or a candidate chosen by the centre right, the winning coalition? https://t.co/mAt5cCJuN4 |
| And here is Il Tempo’s front page, which sums up the situation with the rather dramatic “Che Bordello”, which translates as “what a brothel”, but which I think we can take to mean “what a mess”. | And here is Il Tempo’s front page, which sums up the situation with the rather dramatic “Che Bordello”, which translates as “what a brothel”, but which I think we can take to mean “what a mess”. |
| The image on the front page is of the moment that a topless Femen activist protested as Silvio Berlusconi arrived to vote. | The image on the front page is of the moment that a topless Femen activist protested as Silvio Berlusconi arrived to vote. |
| La situation résumée par #IlTempo : le bloc "centre droit", (droite, FI, et extrême droite, la Ligue ) en tête, la percée du M5S, mais pas de majorité ... #ElectionsItaliennes #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/gJaAADz6KJ | La situation résumée par #IlTempo : le bloc "centre droit", (droite, FI, et extrême droite, la Ligue ) en tête, la percée du M5S, mais pas de majorité ... #ElectionsItaliennes #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/gJaAADz6KJ |
| Here is La Stampa’s front page, which reads: “Da Maio wins, Italy ungovernable”. | Here is La Stampa’s front page, which reads: “Da Maio wins, Italy ungovernable”. |
| Buongiorno, ecco la prima pagina di oggi.Gli aggiornamenti su https://t.co/85UEUCjeLC pic.twitter.com/nagJPjEGMG | Buongiorno, ecco la prima pagina di oggi.Gli aggiornamenti su https://t.co/85UEUCjeLC pic.twitter.com/nagJPjEGMG |
| Inside the paper, columnist Marcello Sorgi wrote: “The March 4 vote yielded a result that Europe was afraid of and Italy perhaps did not expect on this scale.” | Inside the paper, columnist Marcello Sorgi wrote: “The March 4 vote yielded a result that Europe was afraid of and Italy perhaps did not expect on this scale.” |
| “Defeated everywhere else in Europe, populism won here. Either it can govern or it will block the system.” | “Defeated everywhere else in Europe, populism won here. Either it can govern or it will block the system.” |
| Looking ahead, Matteo Salvini will hold a press conference at midday. | Looking ahead, Matteo Salvini will hold a press conference at midday. |
| AP reports that the mood at the anti-immigrant League headquarters in Milan was euphoric earlier today as projections showed the centre-right coalition that the party belongs to was leading the race. | AP reports that the mood at the anti-immigrant League headquarters in Milan was euphoric earlier today as projections showed the centre-right coalition that the party belongs to was leading the race. |
| While the bloc so far is lacking the majority needed to govern, a party official told reporters that the League’s strong showing within the coalition was “a clear signal to Europe, which has mistreated Italians.” | While the bloc so far is lacking the majority needed to govern, a party official told reporters that the League’s strong showing within the coalition was “a clear signal to Europe, which has mistreated Italians.” |
| The interior ministry says the turnout for the national election was 71.48%, a drop from the 75% of eligible voters who participated in the 2013 election. | The interior ministry says the turnout for the national election was 71.48%, a drop from the 75% of eligible voters who participated in the 2013 election. |
| In the light of the events overnight it is worth resurfacing this piece by Stephanie Kirchgaessner from late February, that describes the power struggle – and personal animosity - between Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini within Italy’s right-wing coalition. | In the light of the events overnight it is worth resurfacing this piece by Stephanie Kirchgaessner from late February, that describes the power struggle – and personal animosity - between Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini within Italy’s right-wing coalition. |
| So, if Italy is indeed left with a hung parliament, the deal-making will begin. Agence France-Presse has pulled together three possible options: | So, if Italy is indeed left with a hung parliament, the deal-making will begin. Agence France-Presse has pulled together three possible options: |
| Populist, far-right alliance: | Populist, far-right alliance: |
| Both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League party have ruled out the possibility of a post-election pact but this is currently the only option that looks like it would command a majority. | Both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League party have ruled out the possibility of a post-election pact but this is currently the only option that looks like it would command a majority. |
| According to the latest projections, the two parties together would hold 355 seats in the 630-seat lower house of parliament and 168 seats in the 315-seat upper house. Both parties are heavily eurosceptic and League leader Matteo Salvini has been accused of stirring up racial tensions. A tie-up could cause shockwaves around Europe. | According to the latest projections, the two parties together would hold 355 seats in the 630-seat lower house of parliament and 168 seats in the 315-seat upper house. Both parties are heavily eurosceptic and League leader Matteo Salvini has been accused of stirring up racial tensions. A tie-up could cause shockwaves around Europe. |
| Right-wing coalition: | Right-wing coalition: |
| Preliminary results make this remote as the coalition is predicted to win only 37% of the vote, including 18% for the League and 14 percent for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (Go Italy) party. | Preliminary results make this remote as the coalition is predicted to win only 37% of the vote, including 18% for the League and 14 percent for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (Go Italy) party. |
| The final result of the vote in terms of seats is hard to predict, however, as Italy is using a new electoral law for the first time that combines proportional representation with a first-past-the post system. | The final result of the vote in terms of seats is hard to predict, however, as Italy is using a new electoral law for the first time that combines proportional representation with a first-past-the post system. |
| If the coalition does win a majority and the League comes in ahead of Forza Italia, this would open the prospect of far-right Salvini being nominated as Italy’s next prime minister. | If the coalition does win a majority and the League comes in ahead of Forza Italia, this would open the prospect of far-right Salvini being nominated as Italy’s next prime minister. |
| Stalemate: | Stalemate: |
| If there is no clear majority, President Sergio Mattarella could choose to leave in place the current centre-left government of prime minister Paolo Gentiloni. | If there is no clear majority, President Sergio Mattarella could choose to leave in place the current centre-left government of prime minister Paolo Gentiloni. |
| This would allow time to set up a temporary government to reform the electoral law and organise new elections. But the process would take time as consultations could only start after parliament’s newly-elected lawmakers meet for the first time on 23 March to elect speakers. | This would allow time to set up a temporary government to reform the electoral law and organise new elections. But the process would take time as consultations could only start after parliament’s newly-elected lawmakers meet for the first time on 23 March to elect speakers. |
| After a stalemate following Italy’s last election in 2013, it took more than two months to form a government. | After a stalemate following Italy’s last election in 2013, it took more than two months to form a government. |