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| Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live! | Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live! |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| As thoughts move towards negotiations over power and power sharing, journalist Lorezo Tondo has a very good question: | |
| M5S is officially the leading party in Italy’s elections but it had vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. Alessandro Di Battista, a leader of M5S, is welcoming other parties ‘to come talk to us’.But the question is, to whom does M5S want to listen?#ItalyElection2018 | |
| Analysts say early projections from Italy’s election indicate that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome and that the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement’s strong showing may send a negative signal to financial markets. | |
| Wolfango Piccoli of the Teneo consultancy told the Associated Press that building a majority in the Italian parliament “will be hard if not impossible,” and that tough negotiations were expected. | |
| The early projections had the 5-Star Movement as the strongest single party but a centre-right coalition comprising three parties was leading overall. Neither have enough of a lead to govern alone. | |
| Economic analyst Lorenzo Codogno, a former Treasury official, said the 5-Star’s showing was better than expected and that “financial markets are likely to take these figures negatively.” | |
| He warned that talks on forming a government would be “long and complex.” | |
| This seems slightly too soon, considering most balls are still in the air and no one is quite sure where they will land ... | |
| Head of Forza Italia group of MPs confirms that if Lega largest party (most seats) in centre-right coalition, Salvini would be the bloc's PM-candidate. #ItalianElections | |
| Here is a good summary of where we are now: | |
| 36. UPDATE. There are still many IFs, but here are a few certain things in this #ItalyElection2018 - M5S 1st party- Centre-right 1st coalition- Italy split in 3- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes- Renzi's PD collapsing- Perfect hung parliament looming | |
| Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote. | Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote. |
| The R-wing League party got 4% of the vote in 2013. Now they've basically tripled that. Even if Berlusconi's Forza Italia places ahead of them, the League has owned the election debate on immigration. Berlusconi followed their lead on those issues, even if maybe unconvincingly. | The R-wing League party got 4% of the vote in 2013. Now they've basically tripled that. Even if Berlusconi's Forza Italia places ahead of them, the League has owned the election debate on immigration. Berlusconi followed their lead on those issues, even if maybe unconvincingly. |
| The Associated Press reports that a senior leader of the Five Star Movement has hailed the exit poll data as a “triumph” for his party. | The Associated Press reports that a senior leader of the Five Star Movement has hailed the exit poll data as a “triumph” for his party. |
| Addressing supporters early on Monday, Alessandro Di Battista said the anti-establishment movement was the leading party in Italy’s election. | Addressing supporters early on Monday, Alessandro Di Battista said the anti-establishment movement was the leading party in Italy’s election. |
| But the 30% support indicated by a RAI state TV exit poll is far short of the absolute majority needed to form Italy’s next government. | But the 30% support indicated by a RAI state TV exit poll is far short of the absolute majority needed to form Italy’s next government. |
| M5S has officially vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. But Di Battista welcomed other parties to come talk as long as they use Five Star “methods” of “transparency” and “correctness” in political conduct. | M5S has officially vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. But Di Battista welcomed other parties to come talk as long as they use Five Star “methods” of “transparency” and “correctness” in political conduct. |
| One possible partner is the anti-migrant League led by Matteo Salvini. He is jostling with Silvio Berlusconi for leadership of the centre-right bloc. | One possible partner is the anti-migrant League led by Matteo Salvini. He is jostling with Silvio Berlusconi for leadership of the centre-right bloc. |
| Our Italian correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has wrapped up the developments so far. The main message is that Italian voters, who have traditionally been risk averse, are ready to ditch the big mainstream parties, and that the centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election. | Our Italian correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has wrapped up the developments so far. The main message is that Italian voters, who have traditionally been risk averse, are ready to ditch the big mainstream parties, and that the centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election. |
| About 50% of Italians who voted in the national elections supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, according to early election exit polls and voter projections. | About 50% of Italians who voted in the national elections supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, according to early election exit polls and voter projections. |
| The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the 81-year-old former prime minister, or a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League – would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government. | The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the 81-year-old former prime minister, or a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League – would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government. |
| The exit polls showed Berlusconi’s coalition – which includes the Northern League – winning up to 36% of the vote, a result that could potentially help the billionaire media magnate clinch a fourth election victory under a complicated new Italian election law. | The exit polls showed Berlusconi’s coalition – which includes the Northern League – winning up to 36% of the vote, a result that could potentially help the billionaire media magnate clinch a fourth election victory under a complicated new Italian election law. |
| Analysts were also poring over early data that showed a potential political upset: Matteo Salvini, the firebrand head of La Lega – as the League is now known – beating out Berlusconi within the centre-right coalition. | Analysts were also poring over early data that showed a potential political upset: Matteo Salvini, the firebrand head of La Lega – as the League is now known – beating out Berlusconi within the centre-right coalition. |
| Under a “gentleman’s agreement”, whoever emerges as the winner between the two will choose the next prime minister, if the coalition were to win a majority. | Under a “gentleman’s agreement”, whoever emerges as the winner between the two will choose the next prime minister, if the coalition were to win a majority. |
| Several election watchers are predicting a hung parliament and weeks of horse trading ahead. | Several election watchers are predicting a hung parliament and weeks of horse trading ahead. |
| Ok, Italy basically has a hung Parliament. The populists and far-right have done very well, the center has not, the trend is worrisome, it'll take weeks to see what government might emerge. Over to you in LA, folks, to follow the Oscars. | Ok, Italy basically has a hung Parliament. The populists and far-right have done very well, the center has not, the trend is worrisome, it'll take weeks to see what government might emerge. Over to you in LA, folks, to follow the Oscars. |
| Overheard: "this is bad hung" | Overheard: "this is bad hung" |
| Define “hung parliament”#ItalyElection #Elections2018 #Italyelection2018 @guardian pic.twitter.com/GsNy9R2EBP | Define “hung parliament”#ItalyElection #Elections2018 #Italyelection2018 @guardian pic.twitter.com/GsNy9R2EBP |
| So, what exactly is the Five Star Movement? | So, what exactly is the Five Star Movement? |
| The anti-establisment party, started by comedian Beppe Grillo, burst on to the political scene in 2012 and has gone from strength to strength. The 69-year-old remains a figurehead, though he has handed over leadership to sharp-suited disciple Luigi Di Maio. | The anti-establisment party, started by comedian Beppe Grillo, burst on to the political scene in 2012 and has gone from strength to strength. The 69-year-old remains a figurehead, though he has handed over leadership to sharp-suited disciple Luigi Di Maio. |
| Since its beginnings, the party has experienced a meteoric rise to prominence amid an outpouring of frustration and anger towards mainstream political parties. | Since its beginnings, the party has experienced a meteoric rise to prominence amid an outpouring of frustration and anger towards mainstream political parties. |
| The movement calls itself “the first and only political party based on online participation and direct democracy.” Using an internet portal called Rousseau, M5S uses online votes of members to decide its policies, draft legislation and candidates. | The movement calls itself “the first and only political party based on online participation and direct democracy.” Using an internet portal called Rousseau, M5S uses online votes of members to decide its policies, draft legislation and candidates. |
| M5S is proposing a universal basic income of €780 ($963) a month for those living in poverty. | M5S is proposing a universal basic income of €780 ($963) a month for those living in poverty. |
| M5S supports a hotchpotch of policies from across the political spectrum and has gained a reputation for political flip-flopping, leading their critics to brand them as immature and incompetent. The party had promised its supporters a referendum on leaving the eurozone, but has had a change of heart in recent months. | M5S supports a hotchpotch of policies from across the political spectrum and has gained a reputation for political flip-flopping, leading their critics to brand them as immature and incompetent. The party had promised its supporters a referendum on leaving the eurozone, but has had a change of heart in recent months. |
| M5S is currently projected to be the single party with the largest share of votes in the election. You can read more about its moment of truth here: | M5S is currently projected to be the single party with the largest share of votes in the election. You can read more about its moment of truth here: |
| The complicated picture in Italy has had a knock-on effect on the markets. | The complicated picture in Italy has had a knock-on effect on the markets. |
| The euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the Italian election exit polls and seat projections https://t.co/Ly350lZKHt pic.twitter.com/kJ8bSJWHlx | The euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the Italian election exit polls and seat projections https://t.co/Ly350lZKHt pic.twitter.com/kJ8bSJWHlx |
| Hello, it’s Bonnie here taking over the blog from Jon. As he said, nothing is certain at this stage and it won’t be for some time. But the broad theme based on projections is that it has been a good night so far for populist, anti-establishment parties and a bad one for the incumbent centre left. | Hello, it’s Bonnie here taking over the blog from Jon. As he said, nothing is certain at this stage and it won’t be for some time. But the broad theme based on projections is that it has been a good night so far for populist, anti-establishment parties and a bad one for the incumbent centre left. |
| Anti-EU, anti-immigration Lega appears to have done well as has the anti-establishment 5 Star movement. Hung parliament probable. But given that the coalitions are loose/informal, it’s possible that smaller parties could club together or switch allegiances to muster a majority. | Anti-EU, anti-immigration Lega appears to have done well as has the anti-establishment 5 Star movement. Hung parliament probable. But given that the coalitions are loose/informal, it’s possible that smaller parties could club together or switch allegiances to muster a majority. |
| It looks like we’re in for a long night, and very probably several long weeks of coalition talks: | It looks like we’re in for a long night, and very probably several long weeks of coalition talks: |
| I'll summarize what the men on Italian TV are saying on #elezioni2018 (which, btw, I already anticipated in @TheAtlantic): Center-R (Berlusconi) & Center-L (Renzi) way down. Anti-establishment 5-Star (Di Maio) & far-R League (Salvini) way up. No majority to form a government. | I'll summarize what the men on Italian TV are saying on #elezioni2018 (which, btw, I already anticipated in @TheAtlantic): Center-R (Berlusconi) & Center-L (Renzi) way down. Anti-establishment 5-Star (Di Maio) & far-R League (Salvini) way up. No majority to form a government. |
| I’m handing this live blog over now to my colleague Bonnie Malkin who will take you through to the European morning. Thanks for staying with us. | I’m handing this live blog over now to my colleague Bonnie Malkin who will take you through to the European morning. Thanks for staying with us. |
| “Better a pig than a fascist” reads the poster on display in a radical left community centre in Palermo, Sicily, where antifascists are awaiting the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo. | “Better a pig than a fascist” reads the poster on display in a radical left community centre in Palermo, Sicily, where antifascists are awaiting the poll’s results, writes Lorenzo Tondo. |
| Political violence has been increasing in Italy in recent weeks between fascists and leftwing activists, including an attack on one of the leaders of the far-right group Forza Nuova in Palermo. | Political violence has been increasing in Italy in recent weeks between fascists and leftwing activists, including an attack on one of the leaders of the far-right group Forza Nuova in Palermo. |
| Live from #ballarò #arci porco rosso#elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 #maratonamentana pic.twitter.com/UDXZBoP4yM | Live from #ballarò #arci porco rosso#elezioni2018 #elezioni #Elezioni4Marzo2018 #la7 #maratonamentana pic.twitter.com/UDXZBoP4yM |
| “Like in other countries across Europe, the right wing is taking over,” said Tommaso Mazzara, 30, a radical left activist in Palermo. “If M5S wins they are going to get the support of the right to stay in power. And that’s a huge problem.’’ | “Like in other countries across Europe, the right wing is taking over,” said Tommaso Mazzara, 30, a radical left activist in Palermo. “If M5S wins they are going to get the support of the right to stay in power. And that’s a huge problem.’’ |
| Irene Russotto, 28, a medical student, said: “These exit polls are dramatic. If M5Stars wins the elections, I don’t think they are going to have the political experience to govern. The country is heading dangerously towards the radical right.’’ | Irene Russotto, 28, a medical student, said: “These exit polls are dramatic. If M5Stars wins the elections, I don’t think they are going to have the political experience to govern. The country is heading dangerously towards the radical right.’’ |
| In Rome, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has been speaking to a top election expert, Giovanni Orsina from Luiss University, who cautions that it is far early to make any bold predictions and still believes a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. | In Rome, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has been speaking to a top election expert, Giovanni Orsina from Luiss University, who cautions that it is far early to make any bold predictions and still believes a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. |
| But Orsina believes the populists have done better than expected: | But Orsina believes the populists have done better than expected: |
| What is quite clear is that the centre left were punished. Italy has made real gains in the economy and in unemployment, but voters did not buy it. At least, not a majority of them. | What is quite clear is that the centre left were punished. Italy has made real gains in the economy and in unemployment, but voters did not buy it. At least, not a majority of them. |
| The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.” | The leader of the far-right La Liga, Matteo Salvini, has tweeted his initial reaction to the election results: “Thank you.” |
| La mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQp | La mia prima parola: GRAZIE! pic.twitter.com/DRXiWVAHQp |
| The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing: | The state broadcaster Rai is venturing some early seat projections for the Italian parliament. They show Berlusconi’s rightwing alliance clearly ahead, followed by Five Star Movement and Renzi’s centre left trailing: |
| RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1 | RAI - first seat projection:Centre-right 225-265M5S 195-235Centre-left 115-155LEU 12-20 pic.twitter.com/Yx1KMjMfy1 |
| But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else: | But if a tie-up between the Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega looks potentially possible, so equally, as John Hooper points out, does an alliance between the centre left and M5S - even if the anti-establishment party has largely ruled out entering into coalitions with anybody else: |
| Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros? | Arithmetically, if the exit polling is right (big 'if' btw), the obvious, solid majority is #M5S + #PD & friends. But could the PD, the senior partner in every government since 2013, stomach being the junior partner in a coalition with political tyros? |