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| Italy election: hung parliament on the cards as populist parties surge – live! | Italy election: hung parliament on the cards as populist parties surge – live! |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| And here is Il Tempo’s front page, which sums up the situation with the rather dramatic “Che Bordello”, which translates as “what a brothel”, but which I think we can take to mean “what a mess”. | |
| The image on the front page is of the moment that a topless Femen activist protested as Silvio Berlusconi arrived to vote. | |
| La situation résumée par #IlTempo : le bloc "centre droit", (droite, FI, et extrême droite, la Ligue ) en tête, la percée du M5S, mais pas de majorité ... #ElectionsItaliennes #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/gJaAADz6KJ | |
| Here is La Stampa’s front page, which reads: “Da Maio wins, Italy ungovernable”. | |
| Buongiorno, ecco la prima pagina di oggi.Gli aggiornamenti su https://t.co/85UEUCjeLC pic.twitter.com/nagJPjEGMG | |
| Inside the paper, columnist Marcello Sorgi wrote: “The March 4 vote yielded a result that Europe was afraid of and Italy perhaps did not expect on this scale.” | |
| “Defeated everywhere else in Europe, populism won here. Either it can govern or it will block the system.” | |
| Looking ahead, Matteo Salvini will hold a press conference at midday. | |
| AP reports that the mood at the anti-immigrant League headquarters in Milan was euphoric earlier today as projections showed the centre-right coalition that the party belongs to was leading the race. | |
| While the bloc so far is lacking the majority needed to govern, a party official told reporters that the League’s strong showing within the coalition was “a clear signal to Europe, which has mistreated Italians.” | |
| The interior ministry says the turnout for the national election was 71.48%, a drop from the 75% of eligible voters who participated in the 2013 election. | |
| In the light of the events overnight it is worth resurfacing this piece by Stephanie Kirchgaessner from late February, that describes the power struggle – and personal animosity - between Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini within Italy’s right-wing coalition. | In the light of the events overnight it is worth resurfacing this piece by Stephanie Kirchgaessner from late February, that describes the power struggle – and personal animosity - between Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini within Italy’s right-wing coalition. |
| So, if Italy is indeed left with a hung parliament, the deal-making will begin. Agence France-Presse has pulled together three possible options: | So, if Italy is indeed left with a hung parliament, the deal-making will begin. Agence France-Presse has pulled together three possible options: |
| Populist, far-right alliance: | Populist, far-right alliance: |
| Both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League party have ruled out the possibility of a post-election pact but this is currently the only option that looks like it would command a majority. | Both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League party have ruled out the possibility of a post-election pact but this is currently the only option that looks like it would command a majority. |
| According to the latest projections, the two parties together would hold 355 seats in the 630-seat lower house of parliament and 168 seats in the 315-seat upper house. Both parties are heavily eurosceptic and League leader Matteo Salvini has been accused of stirring up racial tensions. A tie-up could cause shockwaves around Europe. | According to the latest projections, the two parties together would hold 355 seats in the 630-seat lower house of parliament and 168 seats in the 315-seat upper house. Both parties are heavily eurosceptic and League leader Matteo Salvini has been accused of stirring up racial tensions. A tie-up could cause shockwaves around Europe. |
| Right-wing coalition: | Right-wing coalition: |
| Preliminary results make this remote as the coalition is predicted to win only 37% of the vote, including 18% for the League and 14 percent for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (Go Italy) party. | Preliminary results make this remote as the coalition is predicted to win only 37% of the vote, including 18% for the League and 14 percent for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (Go Italy) party. |
| The final result of the vote in terms of seats is hard to predict, however, as Italy is using a new electoral law for the first time that combines proportional representation with a first-past-the post system. | The final result of the vote in terms of seats is hard to predict, however, as Italy is using a new electoral law for the first time that combines proportional representation with a first-past-the post system. |
| If the coalition does win a majority and the League comes in ahead of Forza Italia, this would open the prospect of far-right Salvini being nominated as Italy’s next prime minister. | If the coalition does win a majority and the League comes in ahead of Forza Italia, this would open the prospect of far-right Salvini being nominated as Italy’s next prime minister. |
| Stalemate: | Stalemate: |
| If there is no clear majority, President Sergio Mattarella could choose to leave in place the current centre-left government of prime minister Paolo Gentiloni. | If there is no clear majority, President Sergio Mattarella could choose to leave in place the current centre-left government of prime minister Paolo Gentiloni. |
| This would allow time to set up a temporary government to reform the electoral law and organise new elections. But the process would take time as consultations could only start after parliament’s newly-elected lawmakers meet for the first time on 23 March to elect speakers. | This would allow time to set up a temporary government to reform the electoral law and organise new elections. But the process would take time as consultations could only start after parliament’s newly-elected lawmakers meet for the first time on 23 March to elect speakers. |
| After a stalemate following Italy’s last election in 2013, it took more than two months to form a government. | After a stalemate following Italy’s last election in 2013, it took more than two months to form a government. |
| Not a lot of reaction to the vote from outside Italy yet, except from the fringes: | Not a lot of reaction to the vote from outside Italy yet, except from the fringes: |
| Congratulations to my colleagues in the European Parliament @Mov5Stelle for topping the poll tonight. | Congratulations to my colleagues in the European Parliament @Mov5Stelle for topping the poll tonight. |
| Marine le Pen, leader of France’s far-right FN party, thinks the Italian election results translates into a bad night for the EU. | Marine le Pen, leader of France’s far-right FN party, thinks the Italian election results translates into a bad night for the EU. |
| L’Union européenne va passer une mauvaise soirée... 😃 MLP #Italie🇮🇹 #Elezioni2018 | L’Union européenne va passer une mauvaise soirée... 😃 MLP #Italie🇮🇹 #Elezioni2018 |
| The euro has recovered some lost ground and is trading at $1.232 so it’s looking like a bit of score-draw for the single currency so far. | The euro has recovered some lost ground and is trading at $1.232 so it’s looking like a bit of score-draw for the single currency so far. |
| Sharon Zollner, ANZ chief economist in Auckland, said: “Italian election results are very unlikely to deliver an obvious coalition recipe, but the market is most concerned about the small chance that the euro-sceptic Five Star party could win and threaten the euro and Italian bonds.” | Sharon Zollner, ANZ chief economist in Auckland, said: “Italian election results are very unlikely to deliver an obvious coalition recipe, but the market is most concerned about the small chance that the euro-sceptic Five Star party could win and threaten the euro and Italian bonds.” |
| It’s a bit of a different picture for the Italian stock market which seems set to fall sharply later today. Futures trading points to a 1.3% drop in the Italy 40 index of leading companies, according to online trader IG. | It’s a bit of a different picture for the Italian stock market which seems set to fall sharply later today. Futures trading points to a 1.3% drop in the Italy 40 index of leading companies, according to online trader IG. |
| Italy’s ruling centre-left Democratic Party has admitted it had suffered a “clear defeat” in a general election after coming in third according to projections. | Italy’s ruling centre-left Democratic Party has admitted it had suffered a “clear defeat” in a general election after coming in third according to projections. |
| “This is a very clear defeat for us,” Maurizio Martina, a minister in the outgoing government, told reporters, according to the Associated Press. | “This is a very clear defeat for us,” Maurizio Martina, a minister in the outgoing government, told reporters, according to the Associated Press. |
| “We are expecting a result below our expectations... This is very clearly a negative result for us,” he said. | “We are expecting a result below our expectations... This is very clearly a negative result for us,” he said. |
| A centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party was projected to score just 23.1%, after the main right-wing alliance at 35.5% and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 32.5%. | A centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party was projected to score just 23.1%, after the main right-wing alliance at 35.5% and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement at 32.5%. |
| “Voters have spoken very clearly and irrefutably. The populists have won and the Democratic Party has lost,” Andrea Marcucci, one of the party’s lawmakers in the outgoing parliament, wrote on his Facebook page. | “Voters have spoken very clearly and irrefutably. The populists have won and the Democratic Party has lost,” Andrea Marcucci, one of the party’s lawmakers in the outgoing parliament, wrote on his Facebook page. |
| Officials results are not expected to be finalised for several hours, but projections seem to point to a hung parliament, after Italians ditched traditional centrist parties. | Officials results are not expected to be finalised for several hours, but projections seem to point to a hung parliament, after Italians ditched traditional centrist parties. |
| More than 50% of Italians voters supported populist parties. | More than 50% of Italians voters supported populist parties. |
| The single party predicted to secure the most votes is the Five Star Movement, with about 32%. The anti-establishment party was founded nine years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo. | The single party predicted to secure the most votes is the Five Star Movement, with about 32%. The anti-establishment party was founded nine years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo. |
| A coalition of centre-right parties, led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition and including the xenophobic League, is expected to win up to 36% of the vote. | A coalition of centre-right parties, led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition and including the xenophobic League, is expected to win up to 36% of the vote. |
| Early data shows League (17.5%) gaining more votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14.4%), giving its firebrand chief Matteo Salvini a chance to lead the coalition and be its candidate for prime minister. | Early data shows League (17.5%) gaining more votes than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (14.4%), giving its firebrand chief Matteo Salvini a chance to lead the coalition and be its candidate for prime minister. |
| The centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election, slumping to about 19% of the vote. | The centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election, slumping to about 19% of the vote. |
| There are several parliamentary combinations that could be cobbled together to win a majority of seats, many of which would pair unlikely bedfellows. Under some scenarios, the Five Star Movement could combine with Renzi’s Democratic party to get to above 50%. | There are several parliamentary combinations that could be cobbled together to win a majority of seats, many of which would pair unlikely bedfellows. Under some scenarios, the Five Star Movement could combine with Renzi’s Democratic party to get to above 50%. |
| However, the M5S has previously said it would not take part in a coalition government. | However, the M5S has previously said it would not take part in a coalition government. |
| As a result of the confusion in Italy, which is unlikely to resolved for weeks, the Euro was set for a choppy trading session. | As a result of the confusion in Italy, which is unlikely to resolved for weeks, the Euro was set for a choppy trading session. |
| M5S is looking like it has won the most votes of any single party. Stephanie Kirchgaessner has more on the anti-establishment party and its links to Russia: | M5S is looking like it has won the most votes of any single party. Stephanie Kirchgaessner has more on the anti-establishment party and its links to Russia: |
| I'm reviving this story I wrote more than a year ago about the M5S and its sympathy for the Kremlin. Suddenly, it's a lot more relevant. https://t.co/wOErErWSfx | I'm reviving this story I wrote more than a year ago about the M5S and its sympathy for the Kremlin. Suddenly, it's a lot more relevant. https://t.co/wOErErWSfx |
| So, if Italy does get a hung parliament, how long could negotiations over forming government take? | So, if Italy does get a hung parliament, how long could negotiations over forming government take? |
| Since 1992 it's taken an average of 51 days to form a new government in Italy. Nice chart from JPMorgan. Thanks @abdroma on https://t.co/uEYsxU153s #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/7Tf1Ur6Eui | Since 1992 it's taken an average of 51 days to form a new government in Italy. Nice chart from JPMorgan. Thanks @abdroma on https://t.co/uEYsxU153s #ItalyElection2018 pic.twitter.com/7Tf1Ur6Eui |
| Here is how news organisations around Europe are interpreting the events of the night, while La Stampa headlined its election summary: “Ungovernable Italy”. | Here is how news organisations around Europe are interpreting the events of the night, while La Stampa headlined its election summary: “Ungovernable Italy”. |
| Financial Times pic.twitter.com/JUBeA7LCMs | Financial Times pic.twitter.com/JUBeA7LCMs |
| Deutsche Welle pic.twitter.com/FixBvS2YRU | Deutsche Welle pic.twitter.com/FixBvS2YRU |
| El Pais pic.twitter.com/BIoCC6Zd50 | El Pais pic.twitter.com/BIoCC6Zd50 |
| Le Monde pic.twitter.com/hpvFYPYKR6 | Le Monde pic.twitter.com/hpvFYPYKR6 |
| M5S has had a particularly good night in the south of the country. | M5S has had a particularly good night in the south of the country. |
| 43. M5S is massively winning in almost all Southern Italy districts (in some with a stunning 50% of votes) and now it is expanding in some Center Italy areas too (like Marche region). What a powerful performance.#ItalyElection2018 | 43. M5S is massively winning in almost all Southern Italy districts (in some with a stunning 50% of votes) and now it is expanding in some Center Italy areas too (like Marche region). What a powerful performance.#ItalyElection2018 |
| La nostra mappa interattiva dei collegi del Senato su @SkyTG24 si colora sempre di più (i dati arrivano prima rispetto a quelli della Camera)➡️ https://t.co/70YQx5CoE5#Elezioni4Marzo2018#elezioni2018#MaratonaYouTrend pic.twitter.com/fl9HHBP4Rt | La nostra mappa interattiva dei collegi del Senato su @SkyTG24 si colora sempre di più (i dati arrivano prima rispetto a quelli della Camera)➡️ https://t.co/70YQx5CoE5#Elezioni4Marzo2018#elezioni2018#MaratonaYouTrend pic.twitter.com/fl9HHBP4Rt |
| In the midst of an eventful night, our Italy correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has paused to ponder what is next for the country? | In the midst of an eventful night, our Italy correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has paused to ponder what is next for the country? |
| Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi. | Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi. |
| But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties. | But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties. |
| The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected. | The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected. |
| Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government. | Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government. |
| You can read her full analysis here: | You can read her full analysis here: |
| Here are the latest projections for the make-up of the chamber of deputies: | Here are the latest projections for the make-up of the chamber of deputies: |
| 39. (New projections confirm exit polls' trend. It is getting more and more realistic)ITALY 1ST RESULT PROJECTION CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (SWG-LA7)M5S 32.1%PD 19%LEGA 17.5%BERLUSCONI 14.1%FDI 4.1%LEU 3.5%#ItalyElection2018 | 39. (New projections confirm exit polls' trend. It is getting more and more realistic)ITALY 1ST RESULT PROJECTION CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (SWG-LA7)M5S 32.1%PD 19%LEGA 17.5%BERLUSCONI 14.1%FDI 4.1%LEU 3.5%#ItalyElection2018 |