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| Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live! | Italian election: first exit polls show no overall majority but Five Star largest party – live! |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Here is how news organisations around Europe are interpreting the events of the night, while La Stampa headlined its election summary: “Ungovernable Italy”. | |
| Financial Times pic.twitter.com/JUBeA7LCMs | |
| Deutsche Welle pic.twitter.com/FixBvS2YRU | |
| El Pais pic.twitter.com/BIoCC6Zd50 | |
| Le Monde pic.twitter.com/hpvFYPYKR6 | |
| M5S has had a particularly good night in the south of the country. | |
| 43. M5S is massively winning in almost all Southern Italy districts (in some with a stunning 50% of votes) and now it is expanding in some Center Italy areas too (like Marche region). What a powerful performance.#ItalyElection2018 | |
| La nostra mappa interattiva dei collegi del Senato su @SkyTG24 si colora sempre di più (i dati arrivano prima rispetto a quelli della Camera)➡️ https://t.co/70YQx5CoE5#Elezioni4Marzo2018#elezioni2018#MaratonaYouTrend pic.twitter.com/fl9HHBP4Rt | |
| In the midst of an eventful night, our Italy correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has paused to ponder what is next for the country? | In the midst of an eventful night, our Italy correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has paused to ponder what is next for the country? |
| Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi. | Traditionally, a grand coalition – like a forced marriage of rivals – could be brought together relatively easily by joining the country’s two big traditional parties, the centre-left Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi, and Forza Italia on the right led by Silvio Berlusconi. |
| But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties. | But those traditional parties are not expected to have enough support on their own to create parliamentary majority, according to early results. Exit polls and early projects on Monday morning revealed that as many as 50% of Italian voters supported populist parties. |
| The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected. | The Five Star Movement, once laughed off as merely a protest party, is expected to emerge as the single biggest party, with up to 33% of the vote. La Lega, previously known as the Northern League, also appeared to have performed better than expected. |
| Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government. | Those parties, once seen as fringe movements, will likely have to play a role in whatever coalition is created for the new government in order for it to look reflective of the election results, analysts say. The calculation is complicated in large part because the Five Star Movement has always traditionally said it would not take part in a coalition government. |
| You can read her full analysis here: | You can read her full analysis here: |
| Here are the latest projections for the make-up of the chamber of deputies: | Here are the latest projections for the make-up of the chamber of deputies: |
| 39. (New projections confirm exit polls' trend. It is getting more and more realistic)ITALY 1ST RESULT PROJECTION CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (SWG-LA7)M5S 32.1%PD 19%LEGA 17.5%BERLUSCONI 14.1%FDI 4.1%LEU 3.5%#ItalyElection2018 | 39. (New projections confirm exit polls' trend. It is getting more and more realistic)ITALY 1ST RESULT PROJECTION CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (SWG-LA7)M5S 32.1%PD 19%LEGA 17.5%BERLUSCONI 14.1%FDI 4.1%LEU 3.5%#ItalyElection2018 |
| The Italian Parliament looks so serene in the Roman night. From tomorrow, it will be a rather messy place. #ItalianElections2018 pic.twitter.com/j5ACWcm7cf | The Italian Parliament looks so serene in the Roman night. From tomorrow, it will be a rather messy place. #ItalianElections2018 pic.twitter.com/j5ACWcm7cf |
| The euro is set for a choppy trading session after the strong showing by the 5-Star Movement and other populists. The single currency jumped earlier when it was confirmed that Germany had finally got itself a new grand coalition. | The euro is set for a choppy trading session after the strong showing by the 5-Star Movement and other populists. The single currency jumped earlier when it was confirmed that Germany had finally got itself a new grand coalition. |
| It reached $1.23655 but has fallen 0.1% in the last hour or so to $1.2309 as traders digest the significance of a likely hung parliament after an election that saw more than half of the country’s voters back parties outside the mainstream. It’s now up slightly against the pound at €1.118. | It reached $1.23655 but has fallen 0.1% in the last hour or so to $1.2309 as traders digest the significance of a likely hung parliament after an election that saw more than half of the country’s voters back parties outside the mainstream. It’s now up slightly against the pound at €1.118. |
| Euro turns negative as #Italy election could become a major headache for #Eurozone. pic.twitter.com/wz537Ia8c5 | Euro turns negative as #Italy election could become a major headache for #Eurozone. pic.twitter.com/wz537Ia8c5 |
| M5S until recently supported a referendum on whether Italy, the eurozone’s third biggest economy, should withdraw from the currency bloc. And while it says the time for such a vote has passed, the rightwing League still wants Italy to pull out. | M5S until recently supported a referendum on whether Italy, the eurozone’s third biggest economy, should withdraw from the currency bloc. And while it says the time for such a vote has passed, the rightwing League still wants Italy to pull out. |
| The group formerly known as the Northern League is in Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition, which is projected to have won about 36% of the vote, and could form the next government. | The group formerly known as the Northern League is in Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition, which is projected to have won about 36% of the vote, and could form the next government. |
| The #euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the populist and anti-EU surge / victory in the Italian election polls and seat projections https://t.co/axXhaMVHyJ pic.twitter.com/EAlKFJWTFw | The #euro is trading lower as markets continue to digest the populist and anti-EU surge / victory in the Italian election polls and seat projections https://t.co/axXhaMVHyJ pic.twitter.com/EAlKFJWTFw |
| Our correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has some interesting detail on Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League (formerly the Northern League). | Our correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has some interesting detail on Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League (formerly the Northern League). |
| No one is handing Salvini the keys to Palazzo Chigi just yet. But the far right leader, who has called for mass deportations and once supported segregated buses "for the Milanese", appears to have had a very good night. Migrants, as we know, are always an easy target to get votes https://t.co/EmNHGzvQ2N | No one is handing Salvini the keys to Palazzo Chigi just yet. But the far right leader, who has called for mass deportations and once supported segregated buses "for the Milanese", appears to have had a very good night. Migrants, as we know, are always an easy target to get votes https://t.co/EmNHGzvQ2N |
| For Salvini, this could just be the beginning. More than any other Italian politician, he's got room to grow in influence and support. He stands ready to eventually fill the Berlusconi vacuum. He is close to the Kremlin and like Trump has adopted a slogan of "Italians first". https://t.co/cvgyhJOyRO | For Salvini, this could just be the beginning. More than any other Italian politician, he's got room to grow in influence and support. He stands ready to eventually fill the Berlusconi vacuum. He is close to the Kremlin and like Trump has adopted a slogan of "Italians first". https://t.co/cvgyhJOyRO |
| As thoughts move towards negotiations over power and power sharing, journalist Lorezo Tondo has a very good question: | As thoughts move towards negotiations over power and power sharing, journalist Lorezo Tondo has a very good question: |
| M5S is officially the leading party in Italy’s elections but it had vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. Alessandro Di Battista, a leader of M5S, is welcoming other parties ‘to come talk to us’.But the question is, to whom does M5S want to listen?#ItalyElection2018 | M5S is officially the leading party in Italy’s elections but it had vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. Alessandro Di Battista, a leader of M5S, is welcoming other parties ‘to come talk to us’.But the question is, to whom does M5S want to listen?#ItalyElection2018 |
| Analysts say early projections from Italy’s election indicate that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome and that the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement’s strong showing may send a negative signal to financial markets. | Analysts say early projections from Italy’s election indicate that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome and that the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement’s strong showing may send a negative signal to financial markets. |
| Wolfango Piccoli of the Teneo consultancy told the Associated Press that building a majority in the Italian parliament “will be hard if not impossible,” and that tough negotiations were expected. | Wolfango Piccoli of the Teneo consultancy told the Associated Press that building a majority in the Italian parliament “will be hard if not impossible,” and that tough negotiations were expected. |
| The early projections had the 5-Star Movement as the strongest single party but a centre-right coalition comprising three parties was leading overall. Neither have enough of a lead to govern alone. | The early projections had the 5-Star Movement as the strongest single party but a centre-right coalition comprising three parties was leading overall. Neither have enough of a lead to govern alone. |
| Economic analyst Lorenzo Codogno, a former Treasury official, said the 5-Star’s showing was better than expected and that “financial markets are likely to take these figures negatively.” | Economic analyst Lorenzo Codogno, a former Treasury official, said the 5-Star’s showing was better than expected and that “financial markets are likely to take these figures negatively.” |
| He warned that talks on forming a government would be “long and complex.” | He warned that talks on forming a government would be “long and complex.” |
| This seems slightly too soon, considering most balls are still in the air and no one is quite sure where they will land ... | This seems slightly too soon, considering most balls are still in the air and no one is quite sure where they will land ... |
| Head of Forza Italia group of MPs confirms that if Lega largest party (most seats) in centre-right coalition, Salvini would be the bloc's PM-candidate. #ItalianElections | Head of Forza Italia group of MPs confirms that if Lega largest party (most seats) in centre-right coalition, Salvini would be the bloc's PM-candidate. #ItalianElections |
| Here is a good summary of where we are now: | Here is a good summary of where we are now: |
| 36. UPDATE. There are still many IFs, but here are a few certain things in this #ItalyElection2018 - M5S 1st party- Centre-right 1st coalition- Italy split in 3- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes- Renzi's PD collapsing- Perfect hung parliament looming | 36. UPDATE. There are still many IFs, but here are a few certain things in this #ItalyElection2018 - M5S 1st party- Centre-right 1st coalition- Italy split in 3- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes- Renzi's PD collapsing- Perfect hung parliament looming |
| Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote. | Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote. |
| The R-wing League party got 4% of the vote in 2013. Now they've basically tripled that. Even if Berlusconi's Forza Italia places ahead of them, the League has owned the election debate on immigration. Berlusconi followed their lead on those issues, even if maybe unconvincingly. | The R-wing League party got 4% of the vote in 2013. Now they've basically tripled that. Even if Berlusconi's Forza Italia places ahead of them, the League has owned the election debate on immigration. Berlusconi followed their lead on those issues, even if maybe unconvincingly. |
| The Associated Press reports that a senior leader of the Five Star Movement has hailed the exit poll data as a “triumph” for his party. | The Associated Press reports that a senior leader of the Five Star Movement has hailed the exit poll data as a “triumph” for his party. |
| Addressing supporters early on Monday, Alessandro Di Battista said the anti-establishment movement was the leading party in Italy’s election. | Addressing supporters early on Monday, Alessandro Di Battista said the anti-establishment movement was the leading party in Italy’s election. |
| But the 30% support indicated by a RAI state TV exit poll is far short of the absolute majority needed to form Italy’s next government. | But the 30% support indicated by a RAI state TV exit poll is far short of the absolute majority needed to form Italy’s next government. |
| M5S has officially vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. But Di Battista welcomed other parties to come talk as long as they use Five Star “methods” of “transparency” and “correctness” in political conduct. | M5S has officially vowed not to join any post-election coalitions. But Di Battista welcomed other parties to come talk as long as they use Five Star “methods” of “transparency” and “correctness” in political conduct. |
| One possible partner is the anti-migrant League led by Matteo Salvini. He is jostling with Silvio Berlusconi for leadership of the centre-right bloc. | One possible partner is the anti-migrant League led by Matteo Salvini. He is jostling with Silvio Berlusconi for leadership of the centre-right bloc. |
| Our Italian correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has wrapped up the developments so far. The main message is that Italian voters, who have traditionally been risk averse, are ready to ditch the big mainstream parties, and that the centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election. | Our Italian correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has wrapped up the developments so far. The main message is that Italian voters, who have traditionally been risk averse, are ready to ditch the big mainstream parties, and that the centre-left party headed by Matteo Renzi has had an abysmal election. |
| About 50% of Italians who voted in the national elections supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, according to early election exit polls and voter projections. | About 50% of Italians who voted in the national elections supported populist parties that were once considered fringe, according to early election exit polls and voter projections. |
| The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the 81-year-old former prime minister, or a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League – would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government. | The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the 81-year-old former prime minister, or a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League – would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government. |
| The exit polls showed Berlusconi’s coalition – which includes the Northern League – winning up to 36% of the vote, a result that could potentially help the billionaire media magnate clinch a fourth election victory under a complicated new Italian election law. | The exit polls showed Berlusconi’s coalition – which includes the Northern League – winning up to 36% of the vote, a result that could potentially help the billionaire media magnate clinch a fourth election victory under a complicated new Italian election law. |
| Analysts were also poring over early data that showed a potential political upset: Matteo Salvini, the firebrand head of La Lega – as the League is now known – beating out Berlusconi within the centre-right coalition. | Analysts were also poring over early data that showed a potential political upset: Matteo Salvini, the firebrand head of La Lega – as the League is now known – beating out Berlusconi within the centre-right coalition. |
| Under a “gentleman’s agreement”, whoever emerges as the winner between the two will choose the next prime minister, if the coalition were to win a majority. | Under a “gentleman’s agreement”, whoever emerges as the winner between the two will choose the next prime minister, if the coalition were to win a majority. |