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| Counting goes on in tightly fought Eden-Monaro byelection – as it happened | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news | Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news |
| So we end the night with Labor ahead by a bee’s nose. | |
| But there are still a lot of votes to be counted. | |
| There are about 13,000 14,000 postal votes to be counted, plus the preferences from the pre-poll (which was above 40,000). | |
| Given that the electorate only has just over 114,000 voters, that’s a pretty big slab of unknown. | |
| The only thing I am sure of is that the result, whatever it is, has nothing to do with the AAA credit rating, but I am sure Sussan Ley will get another gold star for getting that into the ABC coverage. | |
| Is Labor worried? | |
| Yes. | |
| Has Labor been worried the entire campaign? | |
| Also yes. | |
| Are these normal circumstances to be holding a byelection in? | |
| Absolutely not. | |
| Will the result change anything? | |
| No. | |
| Does the focus actually need to be on the people in Eden-Monaro who don’t have a roof over their heads six months after the summer bushfires? | |
| All of the yes. | |
| Katharine Murphy has filed her report, because she never stops, so keep an eye out for that. | |
| We’ll keep you updated on the count as it happens over the next couple of days, so stay tuned to the Guardian’s coverage. | |
| And thank you, again, for joining us tonight. It means a lot. We’ll also be back with Covid-19 blog from early tomorrow, where we will have all the news on what is happening in Victoria. We’re all thinking of you, and we’re so sorry, Melbourne. We’ll have more on the situation on the public housing towers which have been put into police lockdown as well. | |
| Get some sleep and please, take care of you. | |
| The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, has put out a statement: | |
| If Labor holds on, it will also be because of preferences from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, who want to wind back the gun laws, so I’d maybe hold off on the “Labor must” decree, when it comes to preference flows. (The Greens vote is also, at this stage, down by almost 3% with the Hemp party having taken up part of that vote.) | |
| Kristina Keneally points out that she did predict this result: | Kristina Keneally points out that she did predict this result: |
| The final observations are just as you would imagine they would be. | The final observations are just as you would imagine they would be. |
| Sussan Ley thinks the fact we don’t have a result is extraordinary: | Sussan Ley thinks the fact we don’t have a result is extraordinary: |
| Literally everyone thought it would be too close to call tonight. Like, everyone. | Literally everyone thought it would be too close to call tonight. Like, everyone. |
| “Scott Morrison is a star,” says a Liberal minister about the Liberal prime minister, “and I think the people of Eden-Monaro know he is the one to lead the rebuilding effort.” | “Scott Morrison is a star,” says a Liberal minister about the Liberal prime minister, “and I think the people of Eden-Monaro know he is the one to lead the rebuilding effort.” |
| So, gold star commentary there. | So, gold star commentary there. |
| Antony Green ends the ABC coverage with Labor ahead of 0.7% based on the postal trends (which have not been entered into the AEC results as yet). | Antony Green ends the ABC coverage with Labor ahead of 0.7% based on the postal trends (which have not been entered into the AEC results as yet). |
| We are still waiting on preference counts from pre-poll – as well as some of the pre-poll as well. | We are still waiting on preference counts from pre-poll – as well as some of the pre-poll as well. |
| And plus, those postal votes are about double what you usually see in an election campaign – there are about 13,000 to 14,000 votes expected to be coming in (plus, the AEC has to legally wait for almost two weeks before they close the mail room). | And plus, those postal votes are about double what you usually see in an election campaign – there are about 13,000 to 14,000 votes expected to be coming in (plus, the AEC has to legally wait for almost two weeks before they close the mail room). |
| Fiona Kotvojs finishes with this: | Fiona Kotvojs finishes with this: |
| Here is where postal votes end so far: | Here is where postal votes end so far: |
| Counting has finished for the night but data is still being slowly uploaded to the AEC site. | Counting has finished for the night but data is still being slowly uploaded to the AEC site. |
| Still, we won’t be getting a result tonight. | Still, we won’t be getting a result tonight. |
| Fiona Kotvojs: | Fiona Kotvojs: |
| Kotvojs also thanks the 13 other candidates – “each one wanted to serve” – and acknowledges that each one has given up a lot to run. | Kotvojs also thanks the 13 other candidates – “each one wanted to serve” – and acknowledges that each one has given up a lot to run. |
| Fiona Kotvojs: | Fiona Kotvojs: |
| (Before 2016, Eden-Monaro was represented by an MP from whichever side of politics won government. So for a good portion of that time, the Coalition had stewardship over Eden-Monaro.) | (Before 2016, Eden-Monaro was represented by an MP from whichever side of politics won government. So for a good portion of that time, the Coalition had stewardship over Eden-Monaro.) |
| Fiona Kotvojs has taken the stage. She has gone for a blue(ish) scarf over a grey(ish) suit, thrown in quite the jaunty fashion (but you also know someone spent time getting it to sit “just so”). | Fiona Kotvojs has taken the stage. She has gone for a blue(ish) scarf over a grey(ish) suit, thrown in quite the jaunty fashion (but you also know someone spent time getting it to sit “just so”). |
| Anthony Albanese gives her three cheers and then tells the room to have a good night. | Anthony Albanese gives her three cheers and then tells the room to have a good night. |
| The results now have Labor, on the two-party preferred measure, ahead 51% to 49%. | The results now have Labor, on the two-party preferred measure, ahead 51% to 49%. |
| Kristy McBain gets a little emotional at the end of her speech, as she says this: | Kristy McBain gets a little emotional at the end of her speech, as she says this: |
| Binders and binders of women here, at least from this angle. | Binders and binders of women here, at least from this angle. |
| The Nationals have moved back to 6.1% of the vote (about where they were at the last election) so Larry Anthony has to be breathing a sigh of relief there, at this stage. | The Nationals have moved back to 6.1% of the vote (about where they were at the last election) so Larry Anthony has to be breathing a sigh of relief there, at this stage. |
| Sky News has also moved to “no official Eden-Monaro result tonight”. | Sky News has also moved to “no official Eden-Monaro result tonight”. |
| That is because there will be no official Eden-Monaro result tonight. | That is because there will be no official Eden-Monaro result tonight. |
| Kristy McBain, the former Bega mayor, says the last time she addressed a room like this it “was New Year’s Eve and I had a roomful of people and I was telling them that if they didn’t live here they to leave immediately, and for all of those people that could not protect their own homes, they had to make decisions about where to go, whether it was an evacuation centre, whether that was to stay with friends and family, whether that was to make some decisions about whether they were best place to protect their own property. | Kristy McBain, the former Bega mayor, says the last time she addressed a room like this it “was New Year’s Eve and I had a roomful of people and I was telling them that if they didn’t live here they to leave immediately, and for all of those people that could not protect their own homes, they had to make decisions about where to go, whether it was an evacuation centre, whether that was to stay with friends and family, whether that was to make some decisions about whether they were best place to protect their own property. |
| “The way I felt that night is much bigger than the one I feel tonight.” | “The way I felt that night is much bigger than the one I feel tonight.” |
| McBain: | McBain: |