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| Eden-Monaro byelection: counting under way after polls close in a tightly fought contest – follow live | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news | Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news |
| Over on Sky News, Nationals leader John Barilaro has declared the Liberals candidate, Fiona Kotvojs has one it. | |
| Richard Marles says there is “still a long way to go” but given the environment the vote was being held in (a pandemic, no real face to face campaign) he feels Labor being in the hunt is a pretty good result. | |
| At the moment, with just under 40% of the vote, Labor is ahead by 0.3% | |
| If you missed the major Victorian news late today, you can catch up here | |
| My eye is now twitching every time I hear the word pre-poll. | |
| But for context, there are about 43,000 pre-poll votes in an electorate with just over 114,200 voters. Add in the postals, which are estimated at between 12,000-13,000 and there is a lot going on in the pre-poll. | |
| The AEC sent out 16,800 postal votes. That’s not normal. | |
| And again - we need to see the pre-poll | |
| The federal president of the Nationals party, Larry Anthony says of John Barilaro’s admission on Sky News that he voted for Mike Kelly (Labor) at the last election is the actions of “one individual”. | |
| Which Barilaro is. But he is also the parliamentary leader of the Nationals party in NSW. Which is in a coalition agreement with the Liberals. So, yes, one individual, but kinda an important one. | |
| Anthony though is doing amazing verbal gymnastics with David Speers, as he pretends he doesn’t care: | |
| He also points out that about 6%, the Nationals have not taken a step back in their primary vote (so far) | |
| He points out that the Nationals were only in the race for four weeks, so it is a good result. | |
| He doesn’t point out that the reason they were only in the race for four weeks was because of internal fighting, in which Barilaro was very, very much front and centre. | |
| I am running out of ways to say it is too early to tell. | |
| But it is too early to tell. | |
| The issue is the pre-poll booths, which are being counted very, very slowly, because the scrutineers have to all stand back and socially distance, and the tables are all spread out and it just slows down the process. | |
| At the moment, Labor’s primary vote is down 4%. | |
| But Kristy McBain is doing very well in preferences. | |
| William Bowe has made an interesting observation | William Bowe has made an interesting observation |
| On the ABC, a debate has broken out between Kristina Keneally and Sussan Ley over whether or not Labor has made a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | On the ABC, a debate has broken out between Kristina Keneally and Sussan Ley over whether or not Labor has made a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
| Keneally: | Keneally: |
| Ley: | Ley: |
| (I guess the same would apply for One Nation and Clive Palmer then) | (I guess the same would apply for One Nation and Clive Palmer then) |
| Looking at the AEC results, Labor’s primary vote is down by 3.86% - which falls in line with what Labor has been saying - that Mike Kelly, the former member’s popularity, accounted for about 3% of their vote in that seat. | Looking at the AEC results, Labor’s primary vote is down by 3.86% - which falls in line with what Labor has been saying - that Mike Kelly, the former member’s popularity, accounted for about 3% of their vote in that seat. |
| On the ABC, Kristina Keneally says she is going to “really hold back on any optimism” until she sees the pre-poll. | On the ABC, Kristina Keneally says she is going to “really hold back on any optimism” until she sees the pre-poll. |
| That’s because half the electorate voted before polling day - including as the Victorian Labor scandal was revealed. | That’s because half the electorate voted before polling day - including as the Victorian Labor scandal was revealed. |
| Traditionally, postal votes tend to favour the government. | Traditionally, postal votes tend to favour the government. |
| With 62 of the 86 booths counted, Labor is ahead with about. 1.2% swing. | |
| Labor has done well in the south coast, which was hit hard by the bushfires, and the Liberals are doing quite well in areas like Yass, where business is the primary concern. | Labor has done well in the south coast, which was hit hard by the bushfires, and the Liberals are doing quite well in areas like Yass, where business is the primary concern. |
| Kristina Keneally says she is hearing that the counting is going “once slower than expected” - there is a lot of social distancing going on in the counting centre, which has slowed down things a little more than usual. | Kristina Keneally says she is hearing that the counting is going “once slower than expected” - there is a lot of social distancing going on in the counting centre, which has slowed down things a little more than usual. |
| Basically, everyone is preparing for there not to be a result tonight. | Basically, everyone is preparing for there not to be a result tonight. |
| Evening all. Hope you are settling in for an interesting night. I’ll keep this early observation short and sweet. The early news from the count is reasonable for Labor. | Evening all. Hope you are settling in for an interesting night. I’ll keep this early observation short and sweet. The early news from the count is reasonable for Labor. |
| Kristy McBain is ahead on the two party-preferred count 51.2% to Fiona Kotvojs on 48.8%. | Kristy McBain is ahead on the two party-preferred count 51.2% to Fiona Kotvojs on 48.8%. |
| Just over 20% of the vote counted. But reasonable is all you’d say right at the moment. We are waiting on the big booths to report two-party preferred counts and until they do, you’d be mad to make any kind of prediction. The results to this point reflect counts in small booths. | Just over 20% of the vote counted. But reasonable is all you’d say right at the moment. We are waiting on the big booths to report two-party preferred counts and until they do, you’d be mad to make any kind of prediction. The results to this point reflect counts in small booths. |
| Also there are a huge number of pre-poll votes to be counted in this by-election, and previous contests tell us people can vote quite differently at pre-poll than they do on the day. | Also there are a huge number of pre-poll votes to be counted in this by-election, and previous contests tell us people can vote quite differently at pre-poll than they do on the day. |
| Over on Sky, John Barilaro says he believes the Liberals will win. | Over on Sky, John Barilaro says he believes the Liberals will win. |
| OK | OK |
| We have just under 23% of the vote counted, and Labor has seen its primary vote rise to 37% | We have just under 23% of the vote counted, and Labor has seen its primary vote rise to 37% |
| The Liberals are just under that at just over 34% | The Liberals are just under that at just over 34% |
| Murph has an update | Murph has an update |
| The other thing to keep in mind, when it comes to supporters of minor parties like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – they don’t really follow how to vote cards. | The other thing to keep in mind, when it comes to supporters of minor parties like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – they don’t really follow how to vote cards. |
| It is the same with One Nation supporters – people will vote as they want. | It is the same with One Nation supporters – people will vote as they want. |
| Here is Antony Green (at this very early stage of the night) | Here is Antony Green (at this very early stage of the night) |
| So far, with just under 3,000 votes counted, Labor’s primary vote is down by about 3% to 34.6%. | So far, with just under 3,000 votes counted, Labor’s primary vote is down by about 3% to 34.6%. |
| The Liberal vote is up by about 0.6%. | The Liberal vote is up by about 0.6%. |
| The Nationals vote is also down – by about 1.9% | The Nationals vote is also down – by about 1.9% |
| The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is the main beneficiary, up by 5.5%. | The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is the main beneficiary, up by 5.5%. |
| The SFF nabbed the top spot but preferenced Labor at No 2 on its how to vote. | The SFF nabbed the top spot but preferenced Labor at No 2 on its how to vote. |
| Labor’s deputy leader, Richard Marles, is one of the Sky analysts – he says he is “still pretty nervous about how it is all playing out”. | Labor’s deputy leader, Richard Marles, is one of the Sky analysts – he says he is “still pretty nervous about how it is all playing out”. |