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| Eden-Monaro byelection results: too close to call in tightly fought NSW contest – follow live | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news | Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news |
| The Nationals vote has dropped to 5.5% - which is where the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is also sitting. It had been at 6% about an hour ago. | |
| We are still waiting on the pre-poll count though. There is not enough to confidentially call it. | |
| Even the Sky News ticker has gone from ‘Barilaro says Liberals have won’ to ‘too close to call’ | |
| Nope, wait, it’s gone back to ‘loss could test Albanese’s leadership’ | |
| Antony Green* has Labor ahead with a 0.4% swing on the two-party preferred measure, with 54% of the vote counted. | |
| *this previously said Antony Albanese. Apologies It has been a long four hours. | |
| The Liberals are feeling good, because Labor has not had a runaway win. | |
| But the margin at the beginning of all of this was 0.9%. | |
| A government hasn’t won a byelection seat off another party for about 100 years. | |
| Which is why there is a sense of excitement around a seat which will do nothing to materially change the parliament. Or anything, really. | |
| Labor, which has been careful to manage expectations from the beginning, given the seat, until 2016, went with who ever was in government (and Mike Kelly only just hung on at the last election because of his own, personal popularity) points out that this is also a one in 100 year electorate. | |
| And before any pundits get excited about what this would mean for Anthony Albanese’s leadership need to remember that the leadership spill rules have been changed, and the Victorian branch, which is most likely to agitate for change, is currently in administration and in the control of the federal executive. | |
| Also, and I am pretty certain of this, given the scores of people I talk to each week, no one is really focussed on politics right now. | |
| Once again, it is, as they say in the biz, too close to call. | |
| Over at the Tally Room blog, Ben Raue has this breakdown: | |
| On the first count of postals - (3000) | |
| The ALP has won 34.3% | |
| The Libs have won 42.2% | |
| Nats are on 4.3% | |
| SFF are on 5.2% | |
| and the Greens have won 4.9% | |
| We are all running out of ways to say ‘we have to wait to see what the pre poll is doing’ but Ben Raue has this breakdown of what we do know | |
| Yup. | Yup. |
| With the AEC results showing 72 of the 86 booths being counted, Labor is *just* ahead – but not even by a full percentage point. | With the AEC results showing 72 of the 86 booths being counted, Labor is *just* ahead – but not even by a full percentage point. |
| It is all going to come down to the pre-poll, and no one has a handle on what those trends are yet because we don’t have enough of them. | It is all going to come down to the pre-poll, and no one has a handle on what those trends are yet because we don’t have enough of them. |
| Labor is pessimistic, the Liberals are cautiously optimistic, but really no one has any idea. | Labor is pessimistic, the Liberals are cautiously optimistic, but really no one has any idea. |
| The Liberals are cautiously optimistic because over the weeks the pre-poll was opened, the Labor branch-stacking scandal broke in Victoria. Scott Morrison, meanwhile, had (and still does) record-breaking popularity. | The Liberals are cautiously optimistic because over the weeks the pre-poll was opened, the Labor branch-stacking scandal broke in Victoria. Scott Morrison, meanwhile, had (and still does) record-breaking popularity. |
| Postal votes tend to favour the government. | Postal votes tend to favour the government. |
| But the fact is, no one knows. If it breaks towards the Liberals, I don’t think it will be sending the message that a byelection in normal times would send. If Labor holds on, nothing changes. | But the fact is, no one knows. If it breaks towards the Liberals, I don’t think it will be sending the message that a byelection in normal times would send. If Labor holds on, nothing changes. |
| But we won’t know for a while yet. | But we won’t know for a while yet. |
| Guys, I think everyone needs to come to terms that there won’t be a result tonight. | Guys, I think everyone needs to come to terms that there won’t be a result tonight. |
| The NSW Nationals leader, John Barilaro, is again saying that with the pre-poll Nats preferences, the Liberals will win tonight – and he is predicting that will be by a “decent” margin. | The NSW Nationals leader, John Barilaro, is again saying that with the pre-poll Nats preferences, the Liberals will win tonight – and he is predicting that will be by a “decent” margin. |
| Richard Marles just pointed out that keeping the Sky News program going for an hour, with no new information, has been “heroic” and thanks Angus Taylor for his “comedic input”. | Richard Marles just pointed out that keeping the Sky News program going for an hour, with no new information, has been “heroic” and thanks Angus Taylor for his “comedic input”. |
| Marles says he is still nervous but says there is literally no new information. | Marles says he is still nervous but says there is literally no new information. |
| Which is another way of saying IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL. | Which is another way of saying IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL. |
| Over on Sky News, Angus Taylor has seemingly blamed Anthony Albanese for a swing against the Greens. | Over on Sky News, Angus Taylor has seemingly blamed Anthony Albanese for a swing against the Greens. |
| If you’re after booth results the clearest breakdown that I’ve seen is here. | If you’re after booth results the clearest breakdown that I’ve seen is here. |
| Over at the Poll Bludger blog, William Bowe has the preference flow worked out to: | Over at the Poll Bludger blog, William Bowe has the preference flow worked out to: |
| Preferences to Labor 6,753 – 58.2%(+6.3%) | Preferences to Labor 6,753 – 58.2%(+6.3%) |
| Preferences to Liberal 4,856 – 41.8% (-6.3%) | Preferences to Liberal 4,856 – 41.8% (-6.3%) |
| Which gives you an idea of where tonight is heading – preferences will prove crucial. | Which gives you an idea of where tonight is heading – preferences will prove crucial. |
| Trevor Hicks is conceding he has not won the night. | Trevor Hicks is conceding he has not won the night. |
| He has so far won about 6% of the vote – and campaigned for 36 days (because the Nationals couldn’t get their act together, including a spat between Michael McCormack and John Barilaro, which came out in the form of text messages that somehow found their way to the media). | He has so far won about 6% of the vote – and campaigned for 36 days (because the Nationals couldn’t get their act together, including a spat between Michael McCormack and John Barilaro, which came out in the form of text messages that somehow found their way to the media). |
| Anyways, Hicks is being quite conciliatory, thanking both McCormack and Barilaro. | Anyways, Hicks is being quite conciliatory, thanking both McCormack and Barilaro. |
| (A royal commission for the dairy industry is not government policy.) | (A royal commission for the dairy industry is not government policy.) |
| Sussan Ley says Scott Morrison’s leadership has helped hold up the Liberal vote: | Sussan Ley says Scott Morrison’s leadership has helped hold up the Liberal vote: |
| Kristina Keneally points out that Morrison wasn’t there today. Ley says he is running the country. Keneally then says that she hasn’t seen much from the Nationals leader either: | Kristina Keneally points out that Morrison wasn’t there today. Ley says he is running the country. Keneally then says that she hasn’t seen much from the Nationals leader either: |
| We’ve been telling you all night to watch the pre-polls. More than 40,000 of them. I hear the count in the pre-poll centres is slow. | We’ve been telling you all night to watch the pre-polls. More than 40,000 of them. I hear the count in the pre-poll centres is slow. |
| It’s possible we won’t know much concrete for an hour or so. But the situation as I see it is this: Labor’s vote in Queanbeyan is down on the past federal election. Labor would have wanted a stronger kick up out of the Queanbeyan votes tonight. If the pre-poll votes are less favourable than the trend in Queanbeyan, the Liberals could well grab a victory in this byelection. | It’s possible we won’t know much concrete for an hour or so. But the situation as I see it is this: Labor’s vote in Queanbeyan is down on the past federal election. Labor would have wanted a stronger kick up out of the Queanbeyan votes tonight. If the pre-poll votes are less favourable than the trend in Queanbeyan, the Liberals could well grab a victory in this byelection. |
| Obviously if the pre-poll result breaks more favourably for Kristy McBain, then Labor holds the seat. | Obviously if the pre-poll result breaks more favourably for Kristy McBain, then Labor holds the seat. |
| Larry Anthony is also pointing out that the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party had No 1 on the ballot, which gives it between 1% and 2% of the vote (with donkey votes – people just numbering the boxes in order). | Larry Anthony is also pointing out that the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party had No 1 on the ballot, which gives it between 1% and 2% of the vote (with donkey votes – people just numbering the boxes in order). |
| The Nationals are pretty off the SFF for saying it would not be giving its preferences to the Coalition, thereby giving them (officially) to Labor – which Anthony says is a “betrayal” of its supporters. | The Nationals are pretty off the SFF for saying it would not be giving its preferences to the Coalition, thereby giving them (officially) to Labor – which Anthony says is a “betrayal” of its supporters. |
| The SFF says it made its preference decision based on what has been done in the electorate since the bushfires – which is not enough. | The SFF says it made its preference decision based on what has been done in the electorate since the bushfires – which is not enough. |