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Eden-Monaro byelection results: counting under way in tightly fought NSW contest – follow live Eden-Monaro byelection results: counting under way in tightly fought NSW contest – follow live
(32 minutes later)
Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest newsFollow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news
Richard Marles just pointed out that keeping the Sky News program going for an hour, with no new information has been “heroic” and thanks Angus Taylor for his “comedic input”. Yup.
Marles says he is still nervous, but says there is literally no new information. With the AEC results showing 72 of the 86 booths being counted, Labor is *just* ahead – but not even by a full percentage point.
Which is another way of saying IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL It is all going to come down to the pre-poll, and no one has a handle on what those trends are yet because we don’t have enough of them.
Labor is pessimistic, the Liberals are cautiously optimistic, but really no one has any idea.
The Liberals are cautiously optimistic because over the weeks the pre-poll was opened, the Labor branch-stacking scandal broke in Victoria. Scott Morrison, meanwhile, had (and still does) record-breaking popularity.
Postal votes tend to favour the government.
But the fact is, no one knows. If it breaks towards the Liberals, I don’t think it will be sending the message that a byelection in normal times would send. If Labor holds on, nothing changes.
But we won’t know for a while yet.
Guys, I think everyone needs to come to terms that there won’t be a result tonight.
The NSW Nationals leader, John Barilaro, is again saying that with the pre-poll Nats preferences, the Liberals will win tonight – and he is predicting that will be by a “decent” margin.
Richard Marles just pointed out that keeping the Sky News program going for an hour, with no new information, has been “heroic” and thanks Angus Taylor for his “comedic input”.
Marles says he is still nervous but says there is literally no new information.
Which is another way of saying IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL.
Over on Sky News, Angus Taylor has seemingly blamed Anthony Albanese for a swing against the Greens.Over on Sky News, Angus Taylor has seemingly blamed Anthony Albanese for a swing against the Greens.
If you’re after booth results the easiest breakdown that I’ve seen is here. If you’re after booth results the clearest breakdown that I’ve seen is here.
Over at the Poll Bludger blog, William Bowe has the preference flow worked out to:Over at the Poll Bludger blog, William Bowe has the preference flow worked out to:
Preferences to Labor 6,753 – 58.2%(+6.3%)Preferences to Labor 6,753 – 58.2%(+6.3%)
Preferences to Liberal 4,856 – 41.8% (-6.3%)Preferences to Liberal 4,856 – 41.8% (-6.3%)
Which gives you an idea of where tonight is heading – preferences will prove crucial.Which gives you an idea of where tonight is heading – preferences will prove crucial.
Trevor Hicks is conceding he has not won the night.Trevor Hicks is conceding he has not won the night.
He has so far won about 6% of the vote – and campaigned for 36 days (because the Nationals couldn’t get their act together, including a spat between Michael McCormack and John Barilaro, which came out in the form of text messages that somehow found their way to the media).He has so far won about 6% of the vote – and campaigned for 36 days (because the Nationals couldn’t get their act together, including a spat between Michael McCormack and John Barilaro, which came out in the form of text messages that somehow found their way to the media).
Anyways, Hicks is being quite conciliatory, thanking both McCormack and Barilaro.Anyways, Hicks is being quite conciliatory, thanking both McCormack and Barilaro.
(A royal commission for the dairy industry is not government policy.)(A royal commission for the dairy industry is not government policy.)
Sussan Ley says Scott Morrison’s leadership has helped hold up the Liberal vote:Sussan Ley says Scott Morrison’s leadership has helped hold up the Liberal vote:
Kristina Keneally points out that Morrison wasn’t there today. Ley says he is running the country. Keneally then says that she hasn’t seen much from the Nationals leader either:Kristina Keneally points out that Morrison wasn’t there today. Ley says he is running the country. Keneally then says that she hasn’t seen much from the Nationals leader either:
We’ve been telling you all night to watch the pre-polls. More than 40,000 of them. I hear the count in the pre-poll centres is slow.We’ve been telling you all night to watch the pre-polls. More than 40,000 of them. I hear the count in the pre-poll centres is slow.
It’s possible we won’t know much concrete for an hour or so. But the situation as I see it is this: Labor’s vote in Queanbeyan is down on the past federal election. Labor would have wanted a stronger kick up out of the Queanbeyan votes tonight. If the pre-poll votes are less favourable than the trend in Queanbeyan, the Liberals could well grab a victory in this byelection.It’s possible we won’t know much concrete for an hour or so. But the situation as I see it is this: Labor’s vote in Queanbeyan is down on the past federal election. Labor would have wanted a stronger kick up out of the Queanbeyan votes tonight. If the pre-poll votes are less favourable than the trend in Queanbeyan, the Liberals could well grab a victory in this byelection.
Obviously if the pre-poll result breaks more favourably for Kristy McBain, then Labor holds the seat.Obviously if the pre-poll result breaks more favourably for Kristy McBain, then Labor holds the seat.
Larry Anthony is also pointing out that the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party had No 1 on the ballot, which gives it between 1% and 2% of the vote (with donkey votes – people just numbering the boxes in order).Larry Anthony is also pointing out that the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party had No 1 on the ballot, which gives it between 1% and 2% of the vote (with donkey votes – people just numbering the boxes in order).
The Nationals are pretty off the SFF for saying it would not be giving its preferences to the Coalition, thereby giving them (officially) to Labor – which Anthony says is a “betrayal” of its supporters.The Nationals are pretty off the SFF for saying it would not be giving its preferences to the Coalition, thereby giving them (officially) to Labor – which Anthony says is a “betrayal” of its supporters.
The SFF says it made its preference decision based on what has been done in the electorate since the bushfires – which is not enough.The SFF says it made its preference decision based on what has been done in the electorate since the bushfires – which is not enough.
John Barilaro says the Nationals vote will give the victory to the Liberals.
He says it proves when the “Nats come out to fight,” they come out swinging.
Over on Sky News, Nationals leader John Barilaro has declared the Liberals candidate, Fiona Kotvojs has one it.
Richard Marles says there is “still a long way to go” but given the environment the vote was being held in (a pandemic, no real face to face campaign) he feels Labor being in the hunt is a pretty good result.
At the moment, with just under 40% of the vote, Labor is ahead by 0.3%
If you missed the major Victorian news late today, you can catch up here
My eye is now twitching every time I hear the word pre-poll.
But for context, there are about 43,000 pre-poll votes in an electorate with just over 114,200 voters. Add in the postals, which are estimated at between 12,000-13,000 and there is a lot going on in the pre-poll.
The AEC sent out 16,800 postal votes. That’s not normal.
And again - we need to see the pre-poll
The federal president of the Nationals party, Larry Anthony says of John Barilaro’s admission on Sky News that he voted for Mike Kelly (Labor) at the last election is the actions of “one individual”.
Which Barilaro is. But he is also the parliamentary leader of the Nationals party in NSW. Which is in a coalition agreement with the Liberals. So, yes, one individual, but kinda an important one.
Anthony though is doing amazing verbal gymnastics with David Speers, as he pretends he doesn’t care:
He also points out that about 6%, the Nationals have not taken a step back in their primary vote (so far)
He points out that the Nationals were only in the race for four weeks, so it is a good result.
He doesn’t point out that the reason they were only in the race for four weeks was because of internal fighting, in which Barilaro was very, very much front and centre.
I am running out of ways to say it is too early to tell.
But it is too early to tell.
The issue is the pre-poll booths, which are being counted very, very slowly, because the scrutineers have to all stand back and socially distance, and the tables are all spread out and it just slows down the process.
At the moment, Labor’s primary vote is down 4%.
But Kristy McBain is doing very well in preferences.
William Bowe has made an interesting observation
On the ABC, a debate has broken out between Kristina Keneally and Sussan Ley over whether or not Labor has made a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Keneally:
Ley:
(I guess the same would apply for One Nation and Clive Palmer then)