This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jul/04/eden-monaro-byelection-results-news-analysis-labor-and-liberal-in-kristy-mcbain-fiona-kotvojs-as-polls-near-close-follow-live

The article has changed 15 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 7 Version 8
Eden-Monaro byelection: counting under way after polls close in a tightly fought contest – follow live Eden-Monaro byelection results: counting under way in tightly fought NSW contest – follow live
(32 minutes later)
Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest newsFollow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news
Richard Marles just pointed out that keeping the Sky News program going for an hour, with no new information has been “heroic” and thanks Angus Taylor for his “comedic input”.
Marles says he is still nervous, but says there is literally no new information.
Which is another way of saying IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL
Over on Sky News, Angus Taylor has seemingly blamed Anthony Albanese for a swing against the Greens.
If you’re after booth results the easiest breakdown that I’ve seen is here.
Over at the Poll Bludger blog, William Bowe has the preference flow worked out to:
Preferences to Labor 6,753 – 58.2%(+6.3%)
Preferences to Liberal 4,856 – 41.8% (-6.3%)
Which gives you an idea of where tonight is heading – preferences will prove crucial.
Trevor Hicks is conceding he has not won the night.
He has so far won about 6% of the vote – and campaigned for 36 days (because the Nationals couldn’t get their act together, including a spat between Michael McCormack and John Barilaro, which came out in the form of text messages that somehow found their way to the media).
Anyways, Hicks is being quite conciliatory, thanking both McCormack and Barilaro.
(A royal commission for the dairy industry is not government policy.)
Sussan Ley says Scott Morrison’s leadership has helped hold up the Liberal vote:
Kristina Keneally points out that Morrison wasn’t there today. Ley says he is running the country. Keneally then says that she hasn’t seen much from the Nationals leader either:
We’ve been telling you all night to watch the pre-polls. More than 40,000 of them. I hear the count in the pre-poll centres is slow.
It’s possible we won’t know much concrete for an hour or so. But the situation as I see it is this: Labor’s vote in Queanbeyan is down on the past federal election. Labor would have wanted a stronger kick up out of the Queanbeyan votes tonight. If the pre-poll votes are less favourable than the trend in Queanbeyan, the Liberals could well grab a victory in this byelection.
Obviously if the pre-poll result breaks more favourably for Kristy McBain, then Labor holds the seat.
Larry Anthony is also pointing out that the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party had No 1 on the ballot, which gives it between 1% and 2% of the vote (with donkey votes – people just numbering the boxes in order).
The Nationals are pretty off the SFF for saying it would not be giving its preferences to the Coalition, thereby giving them (officially) to Labor – which Anthony says is a “betrayal” of its supporters.
The SFF says it made its preference decision based on what has been done in the electorate since the bushfires – which is not enough.
John Barilaro says the Nationals vote will give the victory to the Liberals.
He says it proves when the “Nats come out to fight,” they come out swinging.
Over on Sky News, Nationals leader John Barilaro has declared the Liberals candidate, Fiona Kotvojs has one it.Over on Sky News, Nationals leader John Barilaro has declared the Liberals candidate, Fiona Kotvojs has one it.
Richard Marles says there is “still a long way to go” but given the environment the vote was being held in (a pandemic, no real face to face campaign) he feels Labor being in the hunt is a pretty good result.Richard Marles says there is “still a long way to go” but given the environment the vote was being held in (a pandemic, no real face to face campaign) he feels Labor being in the hunt is a pretty good result.
At the moment, with just under 40% of the vote, Labor is ahead by 0.3%At the moment, with just under 40% of the vote, Labor is ahead by 0.3%
If you missed the major Victorian news late today, you can catch up hereIf you missed the major Victorian news late today, you can catch up here
My eye is now twitching every time I hear the word pre-poll.My eye is now twitching every time I hear the word pre-poll.
But for context, there are about 43,000 pre-poll votes in an electorate with just over 114,200 voters. Add in the postals, which are estimated at between 12,000-13,000 and there is a lot going on in the pre-poll.But for context, there are about 43,000 pre-poll votes in an electorate with just over 114,200 voters. Add in the postals, which are estimated at between 12,000-13,000 and there is a lot going on in the pre-poll.
The AEC sent out 16,800 postal votes. That’s not normal.The AEC sent out 16,800 postal votes. That’s not normal.
And again - we need to see the pre-pollAnd again - we need to see the pre-poll
The federal president of the Nationals party, Larry Anthony says of John Barilaro’s admission on Sky News that he voted for Mike Kelly (Labor) at the last election is the actions of “one individual”.The federal president of the Nationals party, Larry Anthony says of John Barilaro’s admission on Sky News that he voted for Mike Kelly (Labor) at the last election is the actions of “one individual”.
Which Barilaro is. But he is also the parliamentary leader of the Nationals party in NSW. Which is in a coalition agreement with the Liberals. So, yes, one individual, but kinda an important one.Which Barilaro is. But he is also the parliamentary leader of the Nationals party in NSW. Which is in a coalition agreement with the Liberals. So, yes, one individual, but kinda an important one.
Anthony though is doing amazing verbal gymnastics with David Speers, as he pretends he doesn’t care:Anthony though is doing amazing verbal gymnastics with David Speers, as he pretends he doesn’t care:
He also points out that about 6%, the Nationals have not taken a step back in their primary vote (so far)He also points out that about 6%, the Nationals have not taken a step back in their primary vote (so far)
He points out that the Nationals were only in the race for four weeks, so it is a good result.He points out that the Nationals were only in the race for four weeks, so it is a good result.
He doesn’t point out that the reason they were only in the race for four weeks was because of internal fighting, in which Barilaro was very, very much front and centre.He doesn’t point out that the reason they were only in the race for four weeks was because of internal fighting, in which Barilaro was very, very much front and centre.
I am running out of ways to say it is too early to tell.I am running out of ways to say it is too early to tell.
But it is too early to tell.But it is too early to tell.
The issue is the pre-poll booths, which are being counted very, very slowly, because the scrutineers have to all stand back and socially distance, and the tables are all spread out and it just slows down the process.The issue is the pre-poll booths, which are being counted very, very slowly, because the scrutineers have to all stand back and socially distance, and the tables are all spread out and it just slows down the process.
At the moment, Labor’s primary vote is down 4%.At the moment, Labor’s primary vote is down 4%.
But Kristy McBain is doing very well in preferences.But Kristy McBain is doing very well in preferences.
William Bowe has made an interesting observationWilliam Bowe has made an interesting observation
On the ABC, a debate has broken out between Kristina Keneally and Sussan Ley over whether or not Labor has made a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and FarmersOn the ABC, a debate has broken out between Kristina Keneally and Sussan Ley over whether or not Labor has made a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Keneally:Keneally:
Ley:Ley:
(I guess the same would apply for One Nation and Clive Palmer then)(I guess the same would apply for One Nation and Clive Palmer then)
Looking at the AEC results, Labor’s primary vote is down by 3.86% - which falls in line with what Labor has been saying - that Mike Kelly, the former member’s popularity, accounted for about 3% of their vote in that seat.
On the ABC, Kristina Keneally says she is going to “really hold back on any optimism” until she sees the pre-poll.
That’s because half the electorate voted before polling day - including as the Victorian Labor scandal was revealed.
Traditionally, postal votes tend to favour the government.
With 62 of the 86 booths counted, Labor is ahead with about. 1.2% swing.
Labor has done well in the south coast, which was hit hard by the bushfires, and the Liberals are doing quite well in areas like Yass, where business is the primary concern.
Kristina Keneally says she is hearing that the counting is going “once slower than expected” - there is a lot of social distancing going on in the counting centre, which has slowed down things a little more than usual.
Basically, everyone is preparing for there not to be a result tonight.
Evening all. Hope you are settling in for an interesting night. I’ll keep this early observation short and sweet. The early news from the count is reasonable for Labor.
Kristy McBain is ahead on the two party-preferred count 51.2% to Fiona Kotvojs on 48.8%.
Just over 20% of the vote counted. But reasonable is all you’d say right at the moment. We are waiting on the big booths to report two-party preferred counts and until they do, you’d be mad to make any kind of prediction. The results to this point reflect counts in small booths.
Also there are a huge number of pre-poll votes to be counted in this by-election, and previous contests tell us people can vote quite differently at pre-poll than they do on the day.
Over on Sky, John Barilaro says he believes the Liberals will win.
OK
We have just under 23% of the vote counted, and Labor has seen its primary vote rise to 37%
The Liberals are just under that at just over 34%
Murph has an update
The other thing to keep in mind, when it comes to supporters of minor parties like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – they don’t really follow how to vote cards.
It is the same with One Nation supporters – people will vote as they want.
Here is Antony Green (at this very early stage of the night)
So far, with just under 3,000 votes counted, Labor’s primary vote is down by about 3% to 34.6%.
The Liberal vote is up by about 0.6%.
The Nationals vote is also down – by about 1.9%
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is the main beneficiary, up by 5.5%.
The SFF nabbed the top spot but preferenced Labor at No 2 on its how to vote.
Labor’s deputy leader, Richard Marles, is one of the Sky analysts – he says he is “still pretty nervous about how it is all playing out”.