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Eden-Monaro byelection: counting begins after polls close in a tightly fought contest – follow live Eden-Monaro byelection: counting begins after polls close in a tightly fought contest – follow live
(32 minutes later)
Follow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest newsFollow all the results, news and analysis as Labor’s Kristy McBain attempts to retain seat for ALP and the Liberal party’s Fiona Kotvojs hopes for a once-in-100-year upset. Latest news
William Bowe has made an interesting observation
On the ABC, a debate has broken out between Kristina Keneally and Sussan Ley over whether or not Labor has made a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Keneally:
Ley:
(I guess the same would apply for One Nation and Clive Palmer then)
Looking at the AEC results, Labor’s primary vote is down by 3.86% - which falls in line with what Labor has been saying - that Mike Kelly, the former member’s popularity, accounted for about 3% of their vote in that seat.
On the ABC, Kristina Keneally says she is going to “really hold back on any optimism” until she sees the pre-poll.
That’s because half the electorate voted before polling day - including as the Victorian Labor scandal was revealed.
Traditionally, postal votes tend to favour the government.
With 62 of the 89 booths counted, Labor is ahead with about. 1.2% swing.
Labor has done well in the south coast, which was hit hard by the bushfires, and the Liberals are doing quite well in areas like Yass, where business is the primary concern.
Kristina Keneally says she is hearing that the counting is going “once slower than expected” - there is a lot of social distancing going on in the counting centre, which has slowed down things a little more than usual.
Basically, everyone is preparing for there not to be a result tonight.
Evening all. Hope you are settling in for an interesting night. I’ll keep this early observation short and sweet. The early news from the count is reasonable for Labor.
Kristy McBain is ahead on the two party-preferred count 51.2% to Fiona Kotvojs on 48.8%.
Just over 20% of the vote counted. But reasonable is all you’d say right at the moment. We are waiting on the big booths to report two-party preferred counts and until they do, you’d be mad to make any kind of prediction. The results to this point reflect counts in small booths.
Also there are a huge number of pre-poll votes to be counted in this by-election, and previous contests tell us people can vote quite differently at pre-poll than they do on the day.
Over on Sky, John Barilaro says he believes the Liberals will win.
OKOK
We have just under 23% of the vote counted, and Labor has seen its primary vote rise to 37%We have just under 23% of the vote counted, and Labor has seen its primary vote rise to 37%
The Liberals are just under that The Liberals are just under that at just over 34%
Murph has an updateMurph has an update
The other thing to keep in mind, when it comes to supporters of minor parties like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – they don’t really follow how to vote cards.The other thing to keep in mind, when it comes to supporters of minor parties like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – they don’t really follow how to vote cards.
It is the same with One Nation supporters – people will vote as they want.It is the same with One Nation supporters – people will vote as they want.
Here is Antony Green (at this very early stage of the night)Here is Antony Green (at this very early stage of the night)
So far, with just under 3,000 votes counted, Labor’s primary vote is down by about 3% to 34.6%.So far, with just under 3,000 votes counted, Labor’s primary vote is down by about 3% to 34.6%.
The Liberal vote is up by about 0.6%.The Liberal vote is up by about 0.6%.
The Nationals vote is also down – by about 1.9%The Nationals vote is also down – by about 1.9%
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is the main beneficiary, up by 5.5%.The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is the main beneficiary, up by 5.5%.
The SFF nabbed the top spot but preferenced Labor at No 2 on its how to vote.The SFF nabbed the top spot but preferenced Labor at No 2 on its how to vote.
Labor’s deputy leader, Richard Marles, is one of the Sky analysts – he says he is “still pretty nervous about how it is all playing out”.Labor’s deputy leader, Richard Marles, is one of the Sky analysts – he says he is “still pretty nervous about how it is all playing out”.
But that is not to say the polling booths today didn’t have some colour …
Postal vote applications more than doubled for Eden-Monaro, compared with the 2019 federal election.
Obviously, a lot of that has to do with Covid-19.
Labor also ran a very big postal vote campaign.
It makes it almost impossible to compare the booth count to what came in just over a year ago.
Given the number of Covid-19 infections today, the number of police who are involved, and the fears of what it could do in terms of spread to the rest of the country, it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise if this happens:
About 50% of the electorate voted before the election.
That is going to make the poll count a little more difficult – postal votes won’t be counted for a while. By law the AEC has to wait 13 days for votes to come in by post, and pre-polling isn’t counted until after the day’s votes are counted.
Asked about the NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro’s admission that he voted for Labor at the last election, Zed Seselja says:
Asked about Barilaro’s criticism of the ABC cuts (and yes, Paul Fletcher’s office, they are cuts), Seselja says:
Speaking to the ABC, the Liberal senator Zed Seselja is also managing expectations.
Asked if the government’s bushfire response has been adequate, he says:
There are people who are living in shipping containers – and they are some of the lucky ones. There are a lot in tents. With no hot water, and no way to rebuild their jobs.
The Shooters and Fishers party decided to preference Labor at this byelection. That vote could prove to be very, very important.
Here is part of why the party decided to preference away from the government:
The popularity of Labor’s former MP, Mike Kelly, accounts for about 3% of Labor’s vote in Eden-Monaro.
Both the major parties are playing it fairly cool – as reported earlier, neither is willing to take the favourite tag.
The count is slowly starting to come in but it is only a few polling places.
So far, Labor’s primary vote is down, but it is too early to show any trend.
The early booths tend to be the smaller ones and the votes are too small to make any early guesses.
It has been a huge day in Victoria – and this is the news that is going to be dominating Australian headlines for the next week. If you need to catch up, you’ll find all the information here: