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| Wisconsin voters head to polls on crucial primary day – campaign live | Wisconsin voters head to polls on crucial primary day – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.52pm BST | |
| 14:52 | |
| Scott Bixby | |
| With the consensus growing that neither billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump nor Texas senator Ted Cruz will be able to clinch the Republican nomination before the party’s convention in Cleveland this summer, the word from Washington is that members of the party establishment are already moving to support a so-called “white knight” nominee. | |
| That nominee? Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. | |
| Calling it: "The real winner in Wisconsin tonight was Paul Ryan!" | |
| According to a report from the Huffington Post, billionaire industrialist/Tea Party puppetmaster Charles Koch is privately backing the speaker’s nomination during a contested Republican convention in July. | |
| Ryan, for his part, has openly declared that he’s not interested in the position, telling the Times of Israel while in Jerusalem this weekend that “if you’re going to be president, I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” Of course, Ryan was similarly disinterested in the speakership during the last Republican leadership crisis, and we all know how that turned out. | |
| According to the Huffington Post, Ryan would only be open to the idea of accepting a “consensus” nomination if the Republican party unified behind him - an admittedly difficult portrait to paint after a bloodthirsty primary season in which both Trump and Cruz have implicitly threatened open rebellion of the party establishment seizes the nomination from the primary voters. | |
| 2.40pm BST | |
| 14:40 | |
| Scott Bixby | |
| A look at the polls... | |
| Although it’s important to remember that polls can often be totally wrong, they are helpful in framing the narrative of the primary night: Who met expectations? Who exceeded them? Who failed to match them? | |
| With that in mind, Wisconsin is going to be interesting tonight. In six of the last seven polls of likely Republican voters, Texas senator Ted Cruz came out on top in the Badger State, leading billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump by anywhere from one to ten points. | |
| It’s not great news for Trump, who needs to win 55% of the remaining delegates up for grabs to clinch the party’s nomination ahead of the convention in July. If polls showing a potential double-digit victory for Cruz end up being accurate, Trump’s window to winning the nomination outright grows tighter. (To be fair, Cruz’s insistence that he has “a clear path” to winning the nomination ahead of the convention is a near-absolute fantasy, regardless of how well he performs tonight: He would need to win roughly 80% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination ahead of the convention.) | |
| For the Democrats, the polling situation is a little tighter and a little more fluid. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders leads former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in five of the last seven polls conducted, in leads ranging from two to eight points. In the polls in which she is ahead, Clinton’s lead is tighter - between one and six points. | |
| Without the benefit of the Republican “winner-take-most” delegate allocation structure, however, tonight’s victory will be blunted by momentum, no matter who wins. At this point, Sanders needs to win 67% of party’s remaining delegates and superdelegates to win the Democratic nomination, a high hurdle for a candidate who has won less than 40% of the delegates up for grabs so far. | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.53pm BST | |
| 1.37pm BST | 1.37pm BST |
| 13:37 | 13:37 |
| All eyes on Wisconsin | All eyes on Wisconsin |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Happy primary day! | Happy primary day! |
| Hello, and welcome to our continuing coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. This morning, the eyes of a primary-weary nation have turned to America’s Dairyland, where both Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants hope that victories in tonight’s only primary will strengthen their claim to the nomination – or, at least, make it harder for their opponents to do so. | Hello, and welcome to our continuing coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. This morning, the eyes of a primary-weary nation have turned to America’s Dairyland, where both Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants hope that victories in tonight’s only primary will strengthen their claim to the nomination – or, at least, make it harder for their opponents to do so. |
| A few must-knows for tonight’s primary: | A few must-knows for tonight’s primary: |
| Polls close in Wisconsin at 9 pm ET. The Badger State is reputed to have relatively quick returns, which means that unless the races are close – results from Milwaukee, as in all cities, will likely come in a little later than smaller precincts – we should be able to wrap this up before bedtime. | Polls close in Wisconsin at 9 pm ET. The Badger State is reputed to have relatively quick returns, which means that unless the races are close – results from Milwaukee, as in all cities, will likely come in a little later than smaller precincts – we should be able to wrap this up before bedtime. |
| For Republicans, Wisconsin is known as a “winner-take-most” state. This means that all 42 of its delegates will be apportioned tonight, with 18 going to the winner of a plurality of the state’s vote and three more delegates awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties, which means we should be able to make a rough guesstimate of the delegate totals sometime this evening. With 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination, frontrunner Donald Trump has 737 (500 short), Texas senator Ted Cruz has 475 (762 short), and Ohio governor John Kasich has 143 (1,094 short). | For Republicans, Wisconsin is known as a “winner-take-most” state. This means that all 42 of its delegates will be apportioned tonight, with 18 going to the winner of a plurality of the state’s vote and three more delegates awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties, which means we should be able to make a rough guesstimate of the delegate totals sometime this evening. With 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination, frontrunner Donald Trump has 737 (500 short), Texas senator Ted Cruz has 475 (762 short), and Ohio governor John Kasich has 143 (1,094 short). |
| On the Democratic side, Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are appointed proportionally, which means that a victory by either Vermont senator Bernie Sanders or former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be relatively blunted – unless one of them greatly outperforms. With 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination, Clinton has 1,712, including superdelegates (671 short), and Sanders has 1,011 (1,372 short). | On the Democratic side, Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are appointed proportionally, which means that a victory by either Vermont senator Bernie Sanders or former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be relatively blunted – unless one of them greatly outperforms. With 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination, Clinton has 1,712, including superdelegates (671 short), and Sanders has 1,011 (1,372 short). |
| The Guardian’s reporting team will be bringing you up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s primary results, with Dan Roberts anchoring coverage from Madison, Megan Carpentier watching polling stations, Ben Jacobs attending watch parties, and the rest of us eating Night Cheese in New York. | The Guardian’s reporting team will be bringing you up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s primary results, with Dan Roberts anchoring coverage from Madison, Megan Carpentier watching polling stations, Ben Jacobs attending watch parties, and the rest of us eating Night Cheese in New York. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.56pm BST | at 1.56pm BST |