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| Wisconsin voters head to polls on crucial primary day – campaign live | Wisconsin voters head to polls on crucial primary day – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.29pm BST | |
| 16:29 | |
| Tom Dart | |
| On the heels of Donald Trump’s proposed ban on remittances to Mexico as a way to coerce the Mexican government to pay for a billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, the Guardian’s Tom Dart reports from McAllen, Texas, where the candidate’s plan is causing many in Central America to flee to Texas’s Rio Grande valley. | |
| Catalina Maldonado wanted to flee El Salvador for the US to protect her son from danger. After learning of Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the border with Mexico, she decided it was now or maybe never. | |
| If the Republican candidate’s supporters might be delighted that some in Central America are treating the prospect of a wall-raising President Trump with high seriousness, in the short term it appears his rhetoric may be encouraging – not dissuading – migrants to head north to escape poverty and violence. | |
| “We heard he wants to build those walls. That’s why we came,” Maldonado said. “A lot of people are talking about it in El Salvador. They say really bad things about him,” the 34-year-old added through a translator in a shelter in Texas’s Rio Grande valley, the centre of the 2014 surge in unauthorized crossings by families and unaccompanied minors and still the busiest route. | |
| More than half of the lone children and families caught crossing the south-west border this fiscal year have been apprehended in the area, which offers the shortest journey from Central America, has sizable populations on both sides of the frontier, flat terrain and dense scrubland and where the only barrier between the US and Mexico is natural: the narrow, serpentine Rio Grande river. | |
| Related: Now or never: Trump's Mexico wall threat encourages migration to US | |
| 4.05pm BST | 4.05pm BST |
| 16:05 | 16:05 |
| Donald Trump finally reveals how he will pay for his border wall | Donald Trump finally reveals how he will pay for his border wall |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has finally revealed how he plans to force Mexico to pay for his multi-billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, a lynchpin of his presidential campaign that has never been fully detailed before. | |
| The key to the wall’s financing, Trump wrote in a two-page memo to the Washington Post, is threatening to halt money transfers from Mexican immigrants in the US to family back home. These remittances amount to nearly $25 billion each year, roughly 2% of the Mexican gross domestic product, according to the World Bank. Cutting off these money transfers could doom the Mexican economy to recession and severely damage diplomatic relations. | The key to the wall’s financing, Trump wrote in a two-page memo to the Washington Post, is threatening to halt money transfers from Mexican immigrants in the US to family back home. These remittances amount to nearly $25 billion each year, roughly 2% of the Mexican gross domestic product, according to the World Bank. Cutting off these money transfers could doom the Mexican economy to recession and severely damage diplomatic relations. |
| “It’s an easy decision for Mexico,” Trump wrote in the memo, written on campaign stationary emblazoned with his “Make America Great Again!” motto. “Make a one-time payment of $5-$10 billion to ensure that $24 billion continues to flow into their country year after year.” | “It’s an easy decision for Mexico,” Trump wrote in the memo, written on campaign stationary emblazoned with his “Make America Great Again!” motto. “Make a one-time payment of $5-$10 billion to ensure that $24 billion continues to flow into their country year after year.” |
| Trump has previously estimated the cost of building the wall at $8bn. | |
| In the memo, entitled “Compelling Mexico to Pay for the Wall,” Trump said that on the first day of his presidency he would warn the Mexican government of a new regulation that would allow for the government’s seizure of financial assets by immigrants unless they provide documentation establishing “lawful presence in the United States.” | |
| The feasibility and legality of such a maneuver is unclear. “Trump is giving an extremely broad definition of this section of the Patriot Act and what it allows, and it’d surely be litigated,” Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, told the Washington Post. “It would be a large expansion beyond what the text reads.” | |
| Trump’s memo cites additional examples of diplomatic arm-twisting , including an increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, putting a halt to legal immigration and increasing fees for visas and green cards. “Immigration is a privilege, not a right,” Trump wrote. “Mexico is totally dependent on the United States as a release valve for its own poverty.” | Trump’s memo cites additional examples of diplomatic arm-twisting , including an increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, putting a halt to legal immigration and increasing fees for visas and green cards. “Immigration is a privilege, not a right,” Trump wrote. “Mexico is totally dependent on the United States as a release valve for its own poverty.” |
| He concluded his memo by lambasting current immigration rates, writing that “gangs, drug traffickers and cartels have freely exploited our open borders and committed vast numbers of crimes inside the United States.” | |
| “We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage,” Trump concluded. “It is time we use it.” | “We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage,” Trump concluded. “It is time we use it.” |
| Updated | |
| at 4.15pm BST | |
| 3.24pm BST | 3.24pm BST |
| 15:24 | 15:24 |
| Want to know why Ted Cruz is leading in Wisconsin? | Want to know why Ted Cruz is leading in Wisconsin? |
| This advertisement from the state’s thrice-elected governor - and onetime presidential candidate - could help explain it. | This advertisement from the state’s thrice-elected governor - and onetime presidential candidate - could help explain it. |
| Correspondents in Wisconsin say it’s been running practically on loop on local television stations. | Correspondents in Wisconsin say it’s been running practically on loop on local television stations. |
| 3.10pm BST | 3.10pm BST |
| 15:10 | 15:10 |
| Where are the candidates today? | Where are the candidates today? |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| As the five remaining presidential hopefuls scramble for last-minute support in Wisconsin, here’s an updated schedule for where they’ll be making appearances today: | As the five remaining presidential hopefuls scramble for last-minute support in Wisconsin, here’s an updated schedule for where they’ll be making appearances today: |
| Hillary Clinton | Hillary Clinton |
| Joined by congresswomen Yvette Clarke and New York City’s first late, Chirlane McCray, the former secretary of state will host a Women for Hillary town hall meeting in Brooklyn, the site of her campaign headquarters and a key battleground in the upcoming New York primary. | Joined by congresswomen Yvette Clarke and New York City’s first late, Chirlane McCray, the former secretary of state will host a Women for Hillary town hall meeting in Brooklyn, the site of her campaign headquarters and a key battleground in the upcoming New York primary. |
| Where: Medgar Evers Gymnasium, 1650 Bedford Avenue, BrooklynTime: 3:45 pm EDTDoors open: 1:30 pm EDTRSVP here, if you’re free. | Where: Medgar Evers Gymnasium, 1650 Bedford Avenue, BrooklynTime: 3:45 pm EDTDoors open: 1:30 pm EDTRSVP here, if you’re free. |
| Bernie Sanders | Bernie Sanders |
| The Vermont senator is holding a rally in scenic Laramie, Wyoming. According to his campaign, Sanders will discuss “getting big money out of politics, his plan to make public colleges and universities tuition-free, combating climate change and ensuring universal health care.” | The Vermont senator is holding a rally in scenic Laramie, Wyoming. According to his campaign, Sanders will discuss “getting big money out of politics, his plan to make public colleges and universities tuition-free, combating climate change and ensuring universal health care.” |
| Where: The Arts & Sciences Auditorium at the University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, LaramieTime: 5 pm MDTRSVP here, if you’re free. | Where: The Arts & Sciences Auditorium at the University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, LaramieTime: 5 pm MDTRSVP here, if you’re free. |
| Ted Cruz | Ted Cruz |
| The Texas senator is hosting an election-night watch party in Milwaukee ahead of what he hopes will be a triumphant performance in the Wisconsin primary. Having attended one of Cruz’s watch parties ourselves, expect a lot of M&Ms and a fair number of people selling swag. | The Texas senator is hosting an election-night watch party in Milwaukee ahead of what he hopes will be a triumphant performance in the Wisconsin primary. Having attended one of Cruz’s watch parties ourselves, expect a lot of M&Ms and a fair number of people selling swag. |
| Where: American Serb Hall, 5101 West Oklahoma Avenue, MilwaukeeTime: 7 pm to 10 pm CDTRSVP here, if you’re free. | Where: American Serb Hall, 5101 West Oklahoma Avenue, MilwaukeeTime: 7 pm to 10 pm CDTRSVP here, if you’re free. |
| Neither Donald Trump nor John Kasich have any public events scheduled today. | Neither Donald Trump nor John Kasich have any public events scheduled today. |
| 2.52pm BST | 2.52pm BST |
| 14:52 | 14:52 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| With the consensus growing that neither billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump nor Texas senator Ted Cruz will be able to clinch the Republican nomination before the party’s convention in Cleveland this summer, the word from Washington is that members of the party establishment are already moving to support a so-called “white knight” nominee. | With the consensus growing that neither billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump nor Texas senator Ted Cruz will be able to clinch the Republican nomination before the party’s convention in Cleveland this summer, the word from Washington is that members of the party establishment are already moving to support a so-called “white knight” nominee. |
| That nominee? Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. | That nominee? Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. |
| Calling it: "The real winner in Wisconsin tonight was Paul Ryan!" | Calling it: "The real winner in Wisconsin tonight was Paul Ryan!" |
| According to a report from the Huffington Post, billionaire industrialist/Tea Party puppetmaster Charles Koch is privately backing the speaker’s nomination during a contested Republican convention in July. | According to a report from the Huffington Post, billionaire industrialist/Tea Party puppetmaster Charles Koch is privately backing the speaker’s nomination during a contested Republican convention in July. |
| Ryan, for his part, has openly declared that he’s not interested in the position, telling the Times of Israel while in Jerusalem this weekend that “if you’re going to be president, I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” Of course, Ryan was similarly disinterested in the speakership during the last Republican leadership crisis, and we all know how that turned out. | Ryan, for his part, has openly declared that he’s not interested in the position, telling the Times of Israel while in Jerusalem this weekend that “if you’re going to be president, I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” Of course, Ryan was similarly disinterested in the speakership during the last Republican leadership crisis, and we all know how that turned out. |
| According to the Huffington Post, Ryan would only be open to the idea of accepting a “consensus” nomination if the Republican party unified behind him - an admittedly difficult portrait to paint after a bloodthirsty primary season in which both Trump and Cruz have implicitly threatened open rebellion of the party establishment seizes the nomination from the primary voters. | According to the Huffington Post, Ryan would only be open to the idea of accepting a “consensus” nomination if the Republican party unified behind him - an admittedly difficult portrait to paint after a bloodthirsty primary season in which both Trump and Cruz have implicitly threatened open rebellion of the party establishment seizes the nomination from the primary voters. |
| 2.40pm BST | 2.40pm BST |
| 14:40 | 14:40 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| A look at the polls... | A look at the polls... |
| Although it’s important to remember that polls can often be totally wrong, they are helpful in framing the narrative of the primary night: Who met expectations? Who exceeded them? Who failed to match them? | Although it’s important to remember that polls can often be totally wrong, they are helpful in framing the narrative of the primary night: Who met expectations? Who exceeded them? Who failed to match them? |
| With that in mind, Wisconsin is going to be interesting tonight. In six of the last seven polls of likely Republican voters, Texas senator Ted Cruz came out on top in the Badger State, leading billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump by anywhere from one to ten points. | With that in mind, Wisconsin is going to be interesting tonight. In six of the last seven polls of likely Republican voters, Texas senator Ted Cruz came out on top in the Badger State, leading billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump by anywhere from one to ten points. |
| It’s not great news for Trump, who needs to win 55% of the remaining delegates up for grabs to clinch the party’s nomination ahead of the convention in July. If polls showing a potential double-digit victory for Cruz end up being accurate, Trump’s window to winning the nomination outright grows tighter. (To be fair, Cruz’s insistence that he has “a clear path” to winning the nomination ahead of the convention is a near-absolute fantasy, regardless of how well he performs tonight: He would need to win roughly 80% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination ahead of the convention.) | It’s not great news for Trump, who needs to win 55% of the remaining delegates up for grabs to clinch the party’s nomination ahead of the convention in July. If polls showing a potential double-digit victory for Cruz end up being accurate, Trump’s window to winning the nomination outright grows tighter. (To be fair, Cruz’s insistence that he has “a clear path” to winning the nomination ahead of the convention is a near-absolute fantasy, regardless of how well he performs tonight: He would need to win roughly 80% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination ahead of the convention.) |
| For the Democrats, the polling situation is a little tighter and a little more fluid. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders leads former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in five of the last seven polls conducted, in leads ranging from two to eight points. In the polls in which she is ahead, Clinton’s lead is tighter - between one and six points. | For the Democrats, the polling situation is a little tighter and a little more fluid. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders leads former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in five of the last seven polls conducted, in leads ranging from two to eight points. In the polls in which she is ahead, Clinton’s lead is tighter - between one and six points. |
| Without the benefit of the Republican “winner-take-most” delegate allocation structure, however, tonight’s victory will be blunted by momentum, no matter who wins. At this point, Sanders needs to win 67% of party’s remaining delegates and superdelegates to win the Democratic nomination, a high hurdle for a candidate who has won less than 40% of the delegates up for grabs so far. | Without the benefit of the Republican “winner-take-most” delegate allocation structure, however, tonight’s victory will be blunted by momentum, no matter who wins. At this point, Sanders needs to win 67% of party’s remaining delegates and superdelegates to win the Democratic nomination, a high hurdle for a candidate who has won less than 40% of the delegates up for grabs so far. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.53pm BST | at 2.53pm BST |
| 1.37pm BST | 1.37pm BST |
| 13:37 | 13:37 |
| All eyes on Wisconsin | All eyes on Wisconsin |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Happy primary day! | Happy primary day! |
| Hello, and welcome to our continuing coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. This morning, the eyes of a primary-weary nation have turned to America’s Dairyland, where both Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants hope that victories in tonight’s only primary will strengthen their claim to the nomination – or, at least, make it harder for their opponents to do so. | Hello, and welcome to our continuing coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. This morning, the eyes of a primary-weary nation have turned to America’s Dairyland, where both Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants hope that victories in tonight’s only primary will strengthen their claim to the nomination – or, at least, make it harder for their opponents to do so. |
| A few must-knows for tonight’s primary: | A few must-knows for tonight’s primary: |
| Polls close in Wisconsin at 9 pm ET. The Badger State is reputed to have relatively quick returns, which means that unless the races are close – results from Milwaukee, as in all cities, will likely come in a little later than smaller precincts – we should be able to wrap this up before bedtime. | Polls close in Wisconsin at 9 pm ET. The Badger State is reputed to have relatively quick returns, which means that unless the races are close – results from Milwaukee, as in all cities, will likely come in a little later than smaller precincts – we should be able to wrap this up before bedtime. |
| For Republicans, Wisconsin is known as a “winner-take-most” state. This means that all 42 of its delegates will be apportioned tonight, with 18 going to the winner of a plurality of the state’s vote and three more delegates awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties, which means we should be able to make a rough guesstimate of the delegate totals sometime this evening. With 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination, frontrunner Donald Trump has 737 (500 short), Texas senator Ted Cruz has 475 (762 short), and Ohio governor John Kasich has 143 (1,094 short). | For Republicans, Wisconsin is known as a “winner-take-most” state. This means that all 42 of its delegates will be apportioned tonight, with 18 going to the winner of a plurality of the state’s vote and three more delegates awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties, which means we should be able to make a rough guesstimate of the delegate totals sometime this evening. With 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination, frontrunner Donald Trump has 737 (500 short), Texas senator Ted Cruz has 475 (762 short), and Ohio governor John Kasich has 143 (1,094 short). |
| On the Democratic side, Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are appointed proportionally, which means that a victory by either Vermont senator Bernie Sanders or former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be relatively blunted – unless one of them greatly outperforms. With 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination, Clinton has 1,712, including superdelegates (671 short), and Sanders has 1,011 (1,372 short). | On the Democratic side, Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are appointed proportionally, which means that a victory by either Vermont senator Bernie Sanders or former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be relatively blunted – unless one of them greatly outperforms. With 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination, Clinton has 1,712, including superdelegates (671 short), and Sanders has 1,011 (1,372 short). |
| The Guardian’s reporting team will be bringing you up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s primary results, with Dan Roberts anchoring coverage from Madison, Megan Carpentier watching polling stations, Ben Jacobs attending watch parties, and the rest of us eating Night Cheese in New York. | The Guardian’s reporting team will be bringing you up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s primary results, with Dan Roberts anchoring coverage from Madison, Megan Carpentier watching polling stations, Ben Jacobs attending watch parties, and the rest of us eating Night Cheese in New York. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.56pm BST | at 1.56pm BST |