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Wisconsin primary live: Sanders and Cruz hope to crush Clinton and Trump
Wisconsin primary: Sanders beats Clinton as Cruz crushes Trump – live
(35 minutes later)
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Ben Jacobs has wrapped a jungle vine around his waist and dived into the treacherous depths of a big new pool of exit polling data pertaining to Republican voters in the Wisconsin primary.
Cruz: result 'a turning point'
Ben sees Cruz, unusually, edging Trump with less-educated voters:
Cruz addresses supporters, blessing the great state of Wisconsin and thanking governor Scott Walker.
Cruz wins even among voters with high school education or less in WI, the Trump base so far. pic.twitter.com/ONMRrzIjw7
He calls the result a “turning point, a rallying cry.”
Appears to be a high proportion of self-identified “conservatives” among Republican voters:
“The national political terrain began to change two weeks ago” with a big win in Utah, Cruz says.
74 percent of Wisconsin voters identified as conservative tonight pic.twitter.com/SjafThFf3H
“Then just three days ago in Colorado, two congressional districts voted... we won all six” delegates.
And not much bother about “build a wall,” apparently:
Cruz says that North Dakota delegates who specified support for a presidential candidate a couple days ago went 18-1 for Cruz over Trump.
Big issue for Trump was that immigration was the most important issue for only 6% of Wisconsin voters pic.twitter.com/76DtICriz6
There’s a lot more where that came from here.
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Megan Carpentier
Here’s one last story of a tangle by a Wisconsin voter with the state’s difficult new voter ID laws, courtesy of Guardian reporter in the field Megan Carpentier:
“I expected this to happen in Waukesha County”, said Ben Krause-Decorah, 22, of his experience trying to cast a ballot using a legal tribal ID as allowed under Wisconsin’s new strictest-in-the-nation voter identification law. “I didn’t realize that it was a hugely red county when I moved here, but now I see it all the time.”
Krause-Decorah is an enrolled member of the federally- and state-recognized Ho-Chunk Native American tribe and, as part of his job, he works with many other tribe members who live in the state. “There’s tons of people in my tribe who don’t have a state-issued ID”, he said, including his own sister. “Lots of people don’t have driver’s licenses. A tribal ID is free, it’s easy to get, it’s supposed to be valid.”
And when Krause-Decorah showed up to his polling station in Ward 19 in Waukesha County to update his address and cast his ballot, he was hearted to see on a sign displayed in the foyer that his tribal ID was going to be accepted.
But when he stepped into the side room to update his address as part of Wisconsin’s re-registration process, he was shocked to see that tribal IDs were not on the list next to the voting officials dealing with registrations. “Is this a real ID?” the woman asked him.
They debated its validity for a few moments, he said. “The words she used – ‘It’s really better for everyone if you just use a driver’s license’ – were like an ultimatum or a threat,” he said.
Reluctantly, he pulled out his driver’s license to complete the registration process, and then got in the line to cast his ballot.But in that line, again, the poll worker questioned the validity of his tribal ID, despite its being one of a very small number of acceptable forms of identification. She, too, demanded his driver’s license and questioned loudly whether he was allowed to present his tribal ID.
“My sister’s an introvert,” he said. “Lots of people aren’t going to want to go through the hassle and humiliation of this, especially if they don’t have driver’s licenses.”
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First Wisconsin result in minutes
Here it is, almost 9pm ET. We would direct your attention northward, to our Wisconsin results interactive.
May the best candidate win!
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Two weeks before New York, the Donald Trump campaign plans to bring aboard former New York Representative John Sweeney, who will “helping out on legal work,” the New York Times reports.
Now that the statewide winners have been settled, what important questions are left unanswered?
Who? Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs has you covered:
Here are two: can Donald Trump capture a single congressional district, thereby winning three delegates – or might he win a couple?
Lost bid for re-election in 2006 after being photographed at a frat party and a domestic violence incident https://t.co/3NDcD3G6et
and
I tried to minimize the font enough to be able to screenshot the "controversies" section on John Sweeney's wikipedia article. I couldn't.
Will the seven-point lead Bernie Sanders is currently sitting on hold up?
How’d this hire come about? The fit was just right?
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Take this quiz: which Donald Trump surrogate are you?
02:46
Matt Laslo
Bernie Sanders remains on a roll, at least in predominantly white and working class states. With his projected Wisconsin win over Hillary Clinton tonight, he’s now taken six for seven of the last states to weigh in on who will be the Democratic standard bearer in November.
Team Clinton is playing it cool though, highlighting that Sanders’s path to the nomination would require him to win each of the remaining states that have massive numbers of delegates at stake – New York, Pennsylvania, California and New Jersey – by at least 60%, which Clinton’s aides believe is nearly impossible.
Sanders’s Wisconsin win makes next week’s Democratic debate all the more important to his campaign before New York voters cast their ballots on 19 April.
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Sanders projected to win Wisconsin
Bernie Sanders is the projected winner of the Wisconsin Democratic primary, according to AP.
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Are we on the way to an open Republican convention on 18-21 July? Look out Cleveland...
The official soundtrack of tonight with Cruz's big win in Wisconsin. https://t.co/rVOUj0yTq6
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Matt Laslo
By giving Ted Cruz another key victory, Wisconsin conservatives may have dealt a severe blow to Donald Trump’s presidential aspirations, but Cruz still hasn’t gained a clear path to victory.
The magic number to clinch the Republican nomination is 1,237 delegates and, barring a miracle or a catastrophe, none of the remaining three GOP candidates have a good path to solidifying that number. But the #NeverTrump movement seems to be coalescing around Cruz, even though he’s loathed by the Republican establishment in Washington.
The establishment choice, Ohio governor John Kasich, keeps racking up losses, but he keeps telling his supporters that he’s a winner at heart – and that he can dislodge his opponents at what now seems likely to be a contested convention. That’s as uncertain as any other possibility.
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Sanders seizes on reports of victory
Bernie Sanders has sent an email declaring victory in Wisconsin, apparently based on the strength of early returns and the decision of at least one network to call it for him.
“Sisters and Brothers,” the email begins:
Moments ago the news networks called another state for our political revolution, and it’s a big one: Wisconsin.
The corporate media and political establishment keep counting us out, but we keep winning states and doing so by large margins. If we can keep this up, we’re going to shock them all and win this nomination.
The statement declares momentum and projects victory:
Tonight kicked off the most important three week stretch of the campaign, and we did it with another overwhelming victory. If we can keep our momentum going through the states that vote and caucus over the next three weeks, we’re going to win this election.
The margin of victory is crucial on the Democratic side, which awards delegates proportionally. With only 7% of results in, Sanders sits on a solid lead.
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Kasich camp: 'contest is wide open'
Cruz projected winner of Wisconsin
John Weaver, chief strategist for trailing Republican hopeful John Kasich, pre-buts an anticipated third-place finish for the Ohio governor tonight. Kasich has won only his home state.
Ted Cruz is the Republican victor in Wisconsin, AP projects.
“The nomination contest is now wide open,” Weaver said in an email to supporters:
Thank you Wisconsin! Help us #CruzToVictory —> https://t.co/0rbpaoRTtU pic.twitter.com/ix0WfpOgYG
This week will be remembered as the one in which Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both effectively admitted they will not reach the GOP Convention with enough bound delegates to be the nominee.
Rather than admit their own electoral and political shortcomings, they are blaming John Kasich, the only Republican who can defeat Hillary Clinton in November.\
The email includes a section titled “No One Will Reach 1237,” and concludes with a roundup of polls showing Kasich as the only current Republican presidential candidate ahead of Hillary Clinton in a general election.
(h/t: @bencjacobs)
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First Wisconsin results in at 9pm ET
For those of you just joining us, welcome to our live coverage of tonight’s Wisconsin primary. Polls close at 9pm ET.
Thoughtful models show that a poor performance tonight for Donald Trump could make it very difficult for him to win the Republican nomination outright, before the July convention. But even a very strong showing by Ted Cruz would not alter the difficulties facing his would-be climb to 1,237 delegates.
Cruz surge has moved goal posts: for Trump, 3, 6, or even 9 delegates from Wisconsin would be a huge victory on march to 1,237.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders led by five or so points in polling averages, but he did not seem on the verge of a big catchup night in the delegates race that would allow him to overtake Hillary Clinton.
Our comprehensive results page is here, and a thumbnail version will live atop the blog throughout the night. Thanks for reading and, as always, please join us in the comments!
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We’re within 45 minutes of the first Wisconsin results coming in.
Cruz cruises in crucial Waukesha
It’s time to bookmark our live, district-by-district election results page. It features animated candidates riding scissors lifts to victoriously paintbrush districts as they steal the lead:
Ben Jacobs
Related: Wisconsin primary results: track the votes, county by county
Early returns in Waukesha County, a deep-red jurisdiction in the heart of suburban Milwaukee, show Ted Cruz winning in a landslide, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:
A non-animated version will live atop the blog all night – enjoy!
The Texas senator has nearly 60% of the vote in an area which has long been the Republican base in the Badger State. In the racially polarized Milwaukee area, statewide Republicans have long relied on running up the score in Waukesha to win general elections. It seems among these suburban voters, Cruz is the favorite.
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Early returns see Ted Cruz with a crucial lead in a suburban Milwaukee jurisdiction pic.twitter.com/EGMlmMcKwU
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GOP senator urges hearings on Obama's supreme court pick
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Sabrina Siddiqui
And now for exit polling results – to be consumed with a grain of salt – on the Democratic side.
One of the few Republican senators to meet with Barack Obama’s supreme court nominee said she was now “more convinced than ever” that the US Senate should hold hearings on judge Merrick Garland, writes Guardian politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui:
Sanders performs well with young voters:
Maine senator Susan Collins met with Garland on Tuesday and lavished praise on Obama’s pick to replace the late justice Antonin Scalia.
Bernie Sanders won 81% of voters under 30 pic.twitter.com/uUhyEZyZ3u
“I found judge Garland to be well-informed, thoughtful, impressive, extraordinarily bright and with a sensitivity that I look for [regarding the] appropriate roles that the constitution assigns to the three branches,” Collins told reporters following their sit-down.
While Clinton appears to win over African Americans by nearly as high a margin:
“The meeting left me more convinced than ever that the process should proceed. The next step, in my view, should be public hearings.”
Hillary Clinton won three out of four black voters in Wisconsin pic.twitter.com/TMR6NaUwta
Collins’ comments came despite vows from Senate Republican leaders to hold firm against considering the nomination, a position that took hold even before Obama chose Garland, the chief judge of the US court of appeals for the District of Columbia circuit, as his nominee.
Sanders wins men about 3-2, while women vote at about an even split:
Read the full piece here:
In contrast to GOP primary, major gender gap among Democrats pic.twitter.com/2ko2APLWuN
Related: Republican senator Susan Collins urges hearings on Obama's supreme court pick
And Sanders wins voters who say a potential Wisconsin terror attack is low on their list of fears:
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Bernie Sanders cleaned up among voters not worried about a terrorist attack in Wisconsin pic.twitter.com/S91kJPNClV
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In Snapchat election, it's Sanders by a nose
Amber Jamieson
Bernie Sanders is winning the Snapchat election – at least on the follower count, writes the Guardian’s Amber Jamieson:
“We do have the largest – and I’ve heard by far – the largest one,” said Hector Sigala, a digital media director on the Sanders campaign.
Snapchat doesn’t offer its data publicly, but didn’t dispute claims that Sanders has the most people watching. One hundred million people use Snapchat daily, 86% of whom are under 35. Twice as many 18-24-year-olds watched the first GOP debate on Snapchat as opposed to TV. For candidates, it’s a critical platform.
You could call 2016 the “first Snapchat election”. In the early days of the campaign race, the Republicans were very active snappers, but as candidates have dropped out, the Democrats have been left nearly all by themselves on the app (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both have accounts, but post only occasionally). Sanders and Clinton are a tale of two Snapchats – both with very different posting styles and strategies on how to use it to nab the youth vote.
So what do they post on the social media platform that, according to Nielsen, reaches 41% of all 18-34-year-old Americans on any given day?
Related: The first Snapchat election: how Bernie and Hillary are targeting the youth vote
“We definitely treat it as a different medium,” said Sigala. “For Snapchat we do try to give our supporters a very behind-the-scenes-type look, something you don’t get on other social media platforms. Our supporters feel a very deep ownership on this campaign and it’s kind of like they’re checking in on their investments.”
