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| Wisconsin primary: Sanders and Cruz hope to crush Clinton and Trump – live | Wisconsin primary: Sanders and Cruz hope to crush Clinton and Trump – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.39am BST | |
| 01:39 | |
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| 1.31am BST | |
| 01:31 | |
| First Wisconsin results in at 9pm ET | |
| For those of you just joining us, welcome to our live coverage of tonight’s Wisconsin primary. Polls close at 9pm ET. | |
| Thoughtful models show that a poor performance tonight for Donald Trump could make it very difficult for him to win the Republican nomination outright, before the July convention. But even a very strong showing by Ted Cruz would not alter the difficulties facing his would-be climb to 1,237 delegates. | |
| Cruz surge has moved goal posts: for Trump, 3, 6, or even 9 delegates from Wisconsin would be a huge victory on march to 1,237. | |
| On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders led by five or so points in polling averages, but he did not seem on the verge of a big catchup night in the delegates race that would allow him to overtake Hillary Clinton. | |
| Our comprehensive results page is here, and a thumbnail version will live atop the blog throughout the night. Thanks for reading and, as always, please join us in the comments! | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.33am BST | |
| 1.18am BST | |
| 01:18 | |
| We’re within 45 minutes of the first Wisconsin results coming in. | |
| It’s time to bookmark our live, district-by-district election results page. It features animated candidates riding scissors lifts to victoriously paintbrush districts as they steal the lead: | |
| Related: Wisconsin primary results: track the votes, county by county | |
| A non-animated version will live atop the blog all night – enjoy! | |
| 1.12am BST | |
| 01:12 | |
| GOP senator urges hearings on Obama's supreme court pick | |
| Sabrina Siddiqui | |
| One of the few Republican senators to meet with Barack Obama’s supreme court nominee said she was now “more convinced than ever” that the US Senate should hold hearings on judge Merrick Garland, writes Guardian politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui: | |
| Maine senator Susan Collins met with Garland on Tuesday and lavished praise on Obama’s pick to replace the late justice Antonin Scalia. | |
| “I found judge Garland to be well-informed, thoughtful, impressive, extraordinarily bright and with a sensitivity that I look for [regarding the] appropriate roles that the constitution assigns to the three branches,” Collins told reporters following their sit-down. | |
| “The meeting left me more convinced than ever that the process should proceed. The next step, in my view, should be public hearings.” | |
| Collins’ comments came despite vows from Senate Republican leaders to hold firm against considering the nomination, a position that took hold even before Obama chose Garland, the chief judge of the US court of appeals for the District of Columbia circuit, as his nominee. | |
| Read the full piece here: | |
| Related: Republican senator Susan Collins urges hearings on Obama's supreme court pick | |
| 1.07am BST | 1.07am BST |
| 01:07 | 01:07 |
| In Snapchat election, it's Sanders by a nose | In Snapchat election, it's Sanders by a nose |
| Amber Jamieson | Amber Jamieson |
| Bernie Sanders is winning the Snapchat election – at least on the follower count, writes the Guardian’s Amber Jamieson: | Bernie Sanders is winning the Snapchat election – at least on the follower count, writes the Guardian’s Amber Jamieson: |
| “We do have the largest – and I’ve heard by far – the largest one,” said Hector Sigala, a digital media director on the Sanders campaign. | “We do have the largest – and I’ve heard by far – the largest one,” said Hector Sigala, a digital media director on the Sanders campaign. |
| Snapchat doesn’t offer its data publicly, but didn’t dispute claims that Sanders has the most people watching. One hundred million people use Snapchat daily, 86% of whom are under 35. Twice as many 18-24-year-olds watched the first GOP debate on Snapchat as opposed to TV. For candidates, it’s a critical platform. | Snapchat doesn’t offer its data publicly, but didn’t dispute claims that Sanders has the most people watching. One hundred million people use Snapchat daily, 86% of whom are under 35. Twice as many 18-24-year-olds watched the first GOP debate on Snapchat as opposed to TV. For candidates, it’s a critical platform. |
| You could call 2016 the “first Snapchat election”. In the early days of the campaign race, the Republicans were very active snappers, but as candidates have dropped out, the Democrats have been left nearly all by themselves on the app (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both have accounts, but post only occasionally). Sanders and Clinton are a tale of two Snapchats – both with very different posting styles and strategies on how to use it to nab the youth vote. | You could call 2016 the “first Snapchat election”. In the early days of the campaign race, the Republicans were very active snappers, but as candidates have dropped out, the Democrats have been left nearly all by themselves on the app (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both have accounts, but post only occasionally). Sanders and Clinton are a tale of two Snapchats – both with very different posting styles and strategies on how to use it to nab the youth vote. |
| So what do they post on the social media platform that, according to Nielsen, reaches 41% of all 18-34-year-old Americans on any given day? | So what do they post on the social media platform that, according to Nielsen, reaches 41% of all 18-34-year-old Americans on any given day? |
| Related: The first Snapchat election: how Bernie and Hillary are targeting the youth vote | Related: The first Snapchat election: how Bernie and Hillary are targeting the youth vote |
| “We definitely treat it as a different medium,” said Sigala. “For Snapchat we do try to give our supporters a very behind-the-scenes-type look, something you don’t get on other social media platforms. Our supporters feel a very deep ownership on this campaign and it’s kind of like they’re checking in on their investments.” | “We definitely treat it as a different medium,” said Sigala. “For Snapchat we do try to give our supporters a very behind-the-scenes-type look, something you don’t get on other social media platforms. Our supporters feel a very deep ownership on this campaign and it’s kind of like they’re checking in on their investments.” |
| Read the full piece here. | Read the full piece here. |
| 12.43am BST | 12.43am BST |
| 00:43 | 00:43 |
| How excited should Donald Trump’s detractors be if he goes splat in Wisconsin? Like every question of this kind at this stage of the race, the answers is some version of “it depends.” | How excited should Donald Trump’s detractors be if he goes splat in Wisconsin? Like every question of this kind at this stage of the race, the answers is some version of “it depends.” |
| I am skeptical that Cruz winning Wisconsin portends anything other than Cruz continuing to win states he should win. | I am skeptical that Cruz winning Wisconsin portends anything other than Cruz continuing to win states he should win. |
| It depends for example on what happens in New York: | It depends for example on what happens in New York: |
| Bingo. Trump could easily erase poor WI performance by winning virtually all 95 NY delegates on 4/19. https://t.co/0gjVMya2bk | Bingo. Trump could easily erase poor WI performance by winning virtually all 95 NY delegates on 4/19. https://t.co/0gjVMya2bk |
| The same is true on the Democratic side, except moreso. A narrow win in Wisconsin for Sanders would not net him many delegates, while a narrow win for Clinton in much-bigger New York – not that she necessarily will win New York? – could net her many delegates: | The same is true on the Democratic side, except moreso. A narrow win in Wisconsin for Sanders would not net him many delegates, while a narrow win for Clinton in much-bigger New York – not that she necessarily will win New York? – could net her many delegates: |
| Here's Bernie's delegate problem visualized https://t.co/Saf7fbwB89 pic.twitter.com/MlcmKcbOVy | Here's Bernie's delegate problem visualized https://t.co/Saf7fbwB89 pic.twitter.com/MlcmKcbOVy |
| 12.33am BST | 12.33am BST |
| 00:33 | 00:33 |
| Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report keeps his eye on Republican delegate math, and sees Trump coming up short – but well within a range that would be closable by swaying unattached delegates in the time period between the last primaries and the convention: | Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report keeps his eye on Republican delegate math, and sees Trump coming up short – but well within a range that would be closable by swaying unattached delegates in the time period between the last primaries and the convention: |
| My latest back of envelope: Trump gets to 1,192 delegates, 45 short of a majority. https://t.co/8iDjx19a4W | My latest back of envelope: Trump gets to 1,192 delegates, 45 short of a majority. https://t.co/8iDjx19a4W |
| 12.11am BST | 12.11am BST |
| 00:11 | 00:11 |
| The exit poll temptation | The exit poll temptation |
| In keeping with tradition, we hereby supply you with links to exit polls – data compiled from interviews conducted with voters outside polling stations – which are likely to be meaningless, unless they are indicative. | In keeping with tradition, we hereby supply you with links to exit polls – data compiled from interviews conducted with voters outside polling stations – which are likely to be meaningless, unless they are indicative. |
| Here’s a teaser: more than 80% of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin were white, according to exit polls. | Here’s a teaser: more than 80% of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin were white, according to exit polls. |
| And: more than 85% of Trump voters say the Republican presidential nomination should fall to the candidate with the most delegates – even if no one candidate captures a majority, according to exit polls. | And: more than 85% of Trump voters say the Republican presidential nomination should fall to the candidate with the most delegates – even if no one candidate captures a majority, according to exit polls. |
| Exit polls: A quarter of Wisconsin GOP voters excited by @realDonaldTrump candidacy; nearly 4 in 10 afraid of it: https://t.co/Yk1eq0jKV1 | Exit polls: A quarter of Wisconsin GOP voters excited by @realDonaldTrump candidacy; nearly 4 in 10 afraid of it: https://t.co/Yk1eq0jKV1 |
| First look at network exit polls coming at the top of the hour... pic.twitter.com/9qfJMFPmbW | First look at network exit polls coming at the top of the hour... pic.twitter.com/9qfJMFPmbW |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.12am BST | at 12.12am BST |
| 12.02am BST | 12.02am BST |
| 00:02 | 00:02 |
| Which election issues matter most to you? Tell us | Which election issues matter most to you? Tell us |
| As the primary season presses on, we’re getting a better sense of the candidates’ electability. | As the primary season presses on, we’re getting a better sense of the candidates’ electability. |
| While they’re trading insults and accusations, tell us which issues matter most to you and why. Your contributions will help shape our election coverage. | While they’re trading insults and accusations, tell us which issues matter most to you and why. Your contributions will help shape our election coverage. |
| Related: Which issue do you want US election candidates to discuss? | Related: Which issue do you want US election candidates to discuss? |
| 11.59pm BST | 11.59pm BST |
| 23:59 | 23:59 |
| Cruz: I would arm the cheese curds | Cruz: I would arm the cheese curds |
| An ABC News reporter asks Ted Cruz whether he would “arm the cheese curds,” in jocular reference both to a local Wisconsin delicacy and... the Kurd Kurds. | An ABC News reporter asks Ted Cruz whether he would “arm the cheese curds,” in jocular reference both to a local Wisconsin delicacy and... the Kurd Kurds. |
| Cruz is hawkish on the cheese curds question. More about cheese curds. | Cruz is hawkish on the cheese curds question. More about cheese curds. |
| WATCH: @tedcruz to @jesshop23 in Wisconsin: "Yes, we should arm the cheese curds"https://t.co/obAzcRKl6D | WATCH: @tedcruz to @jesshop23 in Wisconsin: "Yes, we should arm the cheese curds"https://t.co/obAzcRKl6D |
| (h/t @bencjacobs) | (h/t @bencjacobs) |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.05am BST | at 12.05am BST |
| 11.50pm BST | 11.50pm BST |
| 23:50 | 23:50 |
| Any takers? | Any takers? |
| Fun fact: Cruz's watch party tonight is at American Serb Hall, where in 1972 Hunter S. Thompson dropped acid and covered George Wallace | Fun fact: Cruz's watch party tonight is at American Serb Hall, where in 1972 Hunter S. Thompson dropped acid and covered George Wallace |
| You can read that coverage here. | You can read that coverage here. |
| 11.32pm BST | 11.32pm BST |
| 23:32 | 23:32 |
| Cruz edges Trump for first time in Reuters poll | Cruz edges Trump for first time in Reuters poll |
| Ted Cruz has for the first time rated higher than Donald Trump in a Reuters-Ipsos poll of a hypothetical national nominating race between the two. | Ted Cruz has for the first time rated higher than Donald Trump in a Reuters-Ipsos poll of a hypothetical national nominating race between the two. |
| Of note: the poll measures ranges of support, and Trump at the top of his range is still ahead of Cruz at the bottom of his. But the sweet spot in Cruz’s range has just now lifted past Trump’s. | Of note: the poll measures ranges of support, and Trump at the top of his range is still ahead of Cruz at the bottom of his. But the sweet spot in Cruz’s range has just now lifted past Trump’s. |
| A click-through tells the whole story. | A click-through tells the whole story. |
| 11.22pm BST | 11.22pm BST |
| 23:22 | 23:22 |
| Clinton: Republicans 'do want to punish women' | Clinton: Republicans 'do want to punish women' |
| Amber Jamieson | Amber Jamieson |
| Hillary Clinton isn’t letting Donald Trump off the hook for controversial remarks about abortion last week – saying the GOP frontrunner’s “abortion should be punished” comments reflect his party’s views, writes Guardian reporter Amber Jamieson from Brooklyn: | Hillary Clinton isn’t letting Donald Trump off the hook for controversial remarks about abortion last week – saying the GOP frontrunner’s “abortion should be punished” comments reflect his party’s views, writes Guardian reporter Amber Jamieson from Brooklyn: |
| “They do want to ban abortion and they do want to punish women and doctors, he just made the sin of saying what they believe,” Clinton told a crowded “Women for Hillary” event at Medgar Evers College in Brooklyn this afternoon. | “They do want to ban abortion and they do want to punish women and doctors, he just made the sin of saying what they believe,” Clinton told a crowded “Women for Hillary” event at Medgar Evers College in Brooklyn this afternoon. |
| Clinton had several barbs for the local billionaire, including one attacking his plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States. | Clinton had several barbs for the local billionaire, including one attacking his plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States. |
| “The fellow who’s actually from New York? I wish he’d get out of one of his towers and walk the streets,” said Clinton. “Peddling prejudice and paranoia is not the New York way.” | “The fellow who’s actually from New York? I wish he’d get out of one of his towers and walk the streets,” said Clinton. “Peddling prejudice and paranoia is not the New York way.” |
| She also slammed Ted Cruz’s plan to monitor Muslim neighborhoods, noting that Muslims live everywhere. “How’s he ever going to figure that out in New York is beyond me,” Clinton said. “Maybe other cities have signs?” | She also slammed Ted Cruz’s plan to monitor Muslim neighborhoods, noting that Muslims live everywhere. “How’s he ever going to figure that out in New York is beyond me,” Clinton said. “Maybe other cities have signs?” |
| Clinton was introduced to the stage by Yvette Clarke, the Brooklyn congresswoman, and Chirlane McCray, the city’s first lady. | Clinton was introduced to the stage by Yvette Clarke, the Brooklyn congresswoman, and Chirlane McCray, the city’s first lady. |
| The venue was at capacity and scores of people were refused entry – although inside it didn’t seem packed. The New York state primary is 19 April, and Clinton is pushing hard for some local love from the state where she served as senator. | The venue was at capacity and scores of people were refused entry – although inside it didn’t seem packed. The New York state primary is 19 April, and Clinton is pushing hard for some local love from the state where she served as senator. |
| “I believe the values of New York are the values of America,” she said, which got the crowd on their feet cheering and a line of people asking her for selfies. | “I believe the values of New York are the values of America,” she said, which got the crowd on their feet cheering and a line of people asking her for selfies. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.23pm BST | at 11.23pm BST |
| 11.14pm BST | 11.14pm BST |
| 23:14 | 23:14 |
| Just under three hours now until polls close in Wisconsin. | Just under three hours now until polls close in Wisconsin. |
| To-reorient late joiners: there are 42 delegates at stake on the Republican side this evening, with 18 going to the plurality winner of the statewide vote, and three each going to the plurality winner in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. As Scott pointed out earlier, the districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties. | To-reorient late joiners: there are 42 delegates at stake on the Republican side this evening, with 18 going to the plurality winner of the statewide vote, and three each going to the plurality winner in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. As Scott pointed out earlier, the districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties. |
| On the Democratic side, 86 delegates are to be awarded proportionally tonight. A narrow win for either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would thus, bragging rights aside, not much budge the delegates race. | On the Democratic side, 86 delegates are to be awarded proportionally tonight. A narrow win for either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would thus, bragging rights aside, not much budge the delegates race. |
| Donald Trump has captured 737 delegates, Ted Cruz has captured 475 and John Kasich has captured 143. They’re trying to get to 1,237. | Donald Trump has captured 737 delegates, Ted Cruz has captured 475 and John Kasich has captured 143. They’re trying to get to 1,237. |
| Clinton has captured 1,712 delegates, and Sanders has captured 1,011. They’re trying to get to 2,383. | Clinton has captured 1,712 delegates, and Sanders has captured 1,011. They’re trying to get to 2,383. |
| You can check out our comprehensive delegate tracker here. Thanks for joining us and, as always, we invite you to make your predictions and state your opinions (or vent your enthusiasms and frustrations) in the comments. | You can check out our comprehensive delegate tracker here. Thanks for joining us and, as always, we invite you to make your predictions and state your opinions (or vent your enthusiasms and frustrations) in the comments. |
| 10.52pm BST | 10.52pm BST |
| 22:52 | 22:52 |
| Megan Carpentier | Megan Carpentier |
| There was heavy traffic in and out of Waukesha County’s Pewaukee City Hall in the 4pm local hour, as residents of Wards 8, 9 and 10 streamed in and out to cast their school board, state and local judiciary and presidential primary ballots. | There was heavy traffic in and out of Waukesha County’s Pewaukee City Hall in the 4pm local hour, as residents of Wards 8, 9 and 10 streamed in and out to cast their school board, state and local judiciary and presidential primary ballots. |
| Residents who had to re-register because of a change of address were steered into a separate conference room to complete the process – and though the precinct chair lamented that more people hadn’t done so earlier, she said it was better for them to do so now than on election night in November. | Residents who had to re-register because of a change of address were steered into a separate conference room to complete the process – and though the precinct chair lamented that more people hadn’t done so earlier, she said it was better for them to do so now than on election night in November. |
| As one long-time 92-year-old poll worker greeted friends and neighbors, voters lined up to slide their Scantron-type ballots into a machine and collect their I-Voted stickers. (One particularly enthusiastic toddler was granted leave to take two, and he left in his mother’s arms, waving one and grinning wildly.) | As one long-time 92-year-old poll worker greeted friends and neighbors, voters lined up to slide their Scantron-type ballots into a machine and collect their I-Voted stickers. (One particularly enthusiastic toddler was granted leave to take two, and he left in his mother’s arms, waving one and grinning wildly.) |
| Election workers said the site had been busy all day, though there hadn’t been lines out the door since the morning hours. Still, with a few hours left to vote and people fighting rush hour traffic to the suburban Milwaukee town, they expected it to heat up again. | Election workers said the site had been busy all day, though there hadn’t been lines out the door since the morning hours. Still, with a few hours left to vote and people fighting rush hour traffic to the suburban Milwaukee town, they expected it to heat up again. |
| And after the last ballot is cast – they had more than 1,100 for the day already in addition to 1,800 early in-person absentees – poll workers would have to hand-check every ballot, separate them by ward, count them and make sure all the tallies matched up before calling anything in. | And after the last ballot is cast – they had more than 1,100 for the day already in addition to 1,800 early in-person absentees – poll workers would have to hand-check every ballot, separate them by ward, count them and make sure all the tallies matched up before calling anything in. |
| In a tight race, that could make for quite a long night. | In a tight race, that could make for quite a long night. |
| Related: Wisconsin voter ID law leaves state braced for primary day chaos | Related: Wisconsin voter ID law leaves state braced for primary day chaos |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.53pm BST | at 10.53pm BST |