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| Wisconsin primary: key vote could deliver gains to Sanders and Cruz – live | |
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| The Southern Poverty Law Center has issued a statement about Mississippi’s new law allowing for discrimination against LGBT people: | |
| “Gov. Phil Bryant’s decision to sign HB 1523 into law is unconscionable. This newly enacted law - like the draconian anti-LGBT laws in other states - uses the guise of ‘religious freedom’ to justify discrimination, mistreatment and bigotry. It’s the same sort of rationale used by white supremacists in earlier eras to justify slavery and Jim Crow. The estimated 60,000 LGBT people in Mississippi deserve better. We need to stand up for the rights of all people. | |
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| Scott Bixby | |
| The governor of Mississippi has signed into law a bill that allows private and public businesses to refuse service to same-sex couples, so long as that couple’s existence conflicts with the “sincerely held religious beliefs or moral convictions” of the business owner. | |
| Governor Phil Bryant released a statement on Twitter after signing House Bill 1523, also known as the “Protecting Freedom of Conscience from Government Discrimination Act,” protesting accusations that the bill facilitates discrimination against LGBT Mississippians. Instead, Bryant said, the bill “merely reinforces the rights which currently exist to the exercise of religious freedom as stated in the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.” | |
| I have signed House Bill 1523. Full statement: pic.twitter.com/00DbgQADFt | |
| The bill, which additionally asserts that marriage “is or should be recognized as the union of one man and one woman” and that sexual relations are “properly reserved” only for such unions, is also the first statewide legislation to codify the belief that transgender individuals are to be considered members of the gender they are assigned at birth, regardless of their own gender identity. | |
| “Male (man) or female (woman) refer to an individual’s immutable biological sex as objectively determined by anatomy and genetics at time of birth,” the measure states. | |
| While individuals, businesses and charities may decline to provide services to LGBT customers, the bill still requires to the state government to provide services - although it does allow government employees to opt out of providing services individually. | |
| “[The bill] does not attempt to challenge federal laws, even those which are in conflict with the Mississippi Constitution, as the Legislature recognizes the prominence of federal law in such limited circumstances,” Bryant wrote. | |
| “This is a sad day for the state of Mississippi and for the thousands of Mississippians who can now be turned away from businesses, refused marriage licenses, or denied housing, essential services and needed care based on who they are,” the American Civil Liberties Union of Mississippi released in a statement. “This bill flies in the face of the basic American principles of fairness, justice and equality and will not protect anyone’s religious liberty. Far from protecting anyone from ‘government discrimination’ as the bill claims, it is an attack on the citizens of our state, and it will serve as the Magnolia State’s badge of shame.” | |
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| In the latest issue of Variety, Megyn Kelly told the magazine that Donald Trump’s continued attacks on her pose a threat to the first amendment of the US constitution. “I’ve seen what’s happened with Michelle Fields and in my own world, there’s another side to this behavior,” Kelly said. “It poses real risks to the person under attack.” | In the latest issue of Variety, Megyn Kelly told the magazine that Donald Trump’s continued attacks on her pose a threat to the first amendment of the US constitution. “I’ve seen what’s happened with Michelle Fields and in my own world, there’s another side to this behavior,” Kelly said. “It poses real risks to the person under attack.” |
| “It has not been enjoyable,” she said of Trump’s attacks since the first Republican debate in Cleveland, in which she questioned his past history of misogynist remarks. “I wish it hadn’t happened. I hope it will stop - his focus on me. If he’s determined not to stop, there’s nothing I can do. I don’t like being the story. I think it raises real First Amendment issues.” | “It has not been enjoyable,” she said of Trump’s attacks since the first Republican debate in Cleveland, in which she questioned his past history of misogynist remarks. “I wish it hadn’t happened. I hope it will stop - his focus on me. If he’s determined not to stop, there’s nothing I can do. I don’t like being the story. I think it raises real First Amendment issues.” |
| Still, Kelly sees Trump as the most likely person to seize the Republican presidential nomination. | Still, Kelly sees Trump as the most likely person to seize the Republican presidential nomination. |
| “The smart money is on Hillary right now, and I think the smart money is on Trump too. It’s going to take a lot to stop him,” she said. “I don’t see a clear path for Kasich or Cruz. Something extraordinary would have to happen, but this whole year has been extraordinary.” | “The smart money is on Hillary right now, and I think the smart money is on Trump too. It’s going to take a lot to stop him,” she said. “I don’t see a clear path for Kasich or Cruz. Something extraordinary would have to happen, but this whole year has been extraordinary.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.13pm BST | at 6.13pm BST |
| 5.59pm BST | 5.59pm BST |
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| Megan Carpentier | Megan Carpentier |
| Wisconsin is bracing for chaos on election day as its new voter ID law - the strictest in the country - faces its first test in a high-turnout election, the Guardian’s Megan Carpentier reports. | Wisconsin is bracing for chaos on election day as its new voter ID law - the strictest in the country - faces its first test in a high-turnout election, the Guardian’s Megan Carpentier reports. |
| Tuesday’s state primary in Wisconsin – which is also a general election for state and local judicial candidates – will be the first high-turnout election here since the law went into effect. The state’s government accountability board estimates that about 40% of the state’s eligible voters will go to the polls, which would be the highest turnout in a primary since 1980. | Tuesday’s state primary in Wisconsin – which is also a general election for state and local judicial candidates – will be the first high-turnout election here since the law went into effect. The state’s government accountability board estimates that about 40% of the state’s eligible voters will go to the polls, which would be the highest turnout in a primary since 1980. |
| Advocates for and against the law agree that approximately 300,000 eligible voters lack eligible photo IDs – in part because, as a staffer for the voter ID bill’s lead sponsor, state representative Jeff Stone, told the Racine Journal Times in 2012: “When the bill was being drafted, we were trying to limit the number [of eligible forms of identification], not expand it.” | Advocates for and against the law agree that approximately 300,000 eligible voters lack eligible photo IDs – in part because, as a staffer for the voter ID bill’s lead sponsor, state representative Jeff Stone, told the Racine Journal Times in 2012: “When the bill was being drafted, we were trying to limit the number [of eligible forms of identification], not expand it.” |
| The list of eligible identification is, as a result, short. If the cards were valid as of the 2014 general election, voters can show: a Wisconsin driver’s license; a non-driver’s ID issued by the state department of transportation; a military ID card issued by a US uniformed service; a US passport; or an identification card issued by a federally recognized Native American tribe with land in Wisconsin. | The list of eligible identification is, as a result, short. If the cards were valid as of the 2014 general election, voters can show: a Wisconsin driver’s license; a non-driver’s ID issued by the state department of transportation; a military ID card issued by a US uniformed service; a US passport; or an identification card issued by a federally recognized Native American tribe with land in Wisconsin. |
| Those rules mean, for example, that tribal IDs from tribes without land in Wisconsin are ineligible; expired driver’s licenses or passports are ineligible; and out-of-state licenses, even if valid, are ineligible, among other commonly used forms of ID. And, advocates note, the state’s computer systems went down for three hours on Friday, which caused problems for in-person absentee voters and those attempting to obtain eligible identification before the primary. | Those rules mean, for example, that tribal IDs from tribes without land in Wisconsin are ineligible; expired driver’s licenses or passports are ineligible; and out-of-state licenses, even if valid, are ineligible, among other commonly used forms of ID. And, advocates note, the state’s computer systems went down for three hours on Friday, which caused problems for in-person absentee voters and those attempting to obtain eligible identification before the primary. |
| Related: Wisconsin voter ID law leaves state braced for primary day chaos | Related: Wisconsin voter ID law leaves state braced for primary day chaos |
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| Barack Obama calls Donald Trump's border wall proposal "half-baked," "draconian" | Barack Obama calls Donald Trump's border wall proposal "half-baked," "draconian" |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| In a press briefing at the White House, Barack Obama rolled his eyes and dismissed billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s proposed method of extorting the Mexican government into paying for a billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, calling the suggestion “whacky.” | In a press briefing at the White House, Barack Obama rolled his eyes and dismissed billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s proposed method of extorting the Mexican government into paying for a billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, calling the suggestion “whacky.” |
| The president expressed dismay at the mention of Trump’s proposal during the briefing, which was focused on the government’s response to the released of the so-called Panama Papers by the Guardian and other media outlets. | The president expressed dismay at the mention of Trump’s proposal during the briefing, which was focused on the government’s response to the released of the so-called Panama Papers by the Guardian and other media outlets. |
| “Oh no, it’s Trump,” Obama said, muted laughter. | “Oh no, it’s Trump,” Obama said, muted laughter. |
| When asked to respond to Trump’s plan, which would involve threatening to halt money transfers from Mexican immigrants in the US to family back home, Obama dismissed it as “not thought through” and “primarily put forward for political consumption.” | When asked to respond to Trump’s plan, which would involve threatening to halt money transfers from Mexican immigrants in the US to family back home, Obama dismissed it as “not thought through” and “primarily put forward for political consumption.” |
| “I am getting questions constantly from foreign leaders about some of the wackier suggestions that are being made,” Obama said, saying that such proposals hurt US standing abroad. “It’s not just Mr Trump’s proposals - you’re also hearing concerns about Mr Cruz’s proposals, which in some ways are just as draconian.” | “I am getting questions constantly from foreign leaders about some of the wackier suggestions that are being made,” Obama said, saying that such proposals hurt US standing abroad. “It’s not just Mr Trump’s proposals - you’re also hearing concerns about Mr Cruz’s proposals, which in some ways are just as draconian.” |
| “We’ve got big issues around the world,” he continued. “People expects the president of the United States and the elected officials in this country to treat these problems seriously. They don’t expect half-banked notions coming out of the White House. We can’t afford that.” | “We’ve got big issues around the world,” he continued. “People expects the president of the United States and the elected officials in this country to treat these problems seriously. They don’t expect half-banked notions coming out of the White House. We can’t afford that.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.39pm BST | at 5.39pm BST |
| 4.48pm BST | 4.48pm BST |
| 16:48 | 16:48 |
| As her campaign braces for a potential loss in the Wisconsin primary, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton received some good news today in the form of a new poll out in Pennsylvania, showing her leading Vermont senator Bernie Sanders by more than 20 points in the Keystone State with three weeks to go before its primary. | As her campaign braces for a potential loss in the Wisconsin primary, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton received some good news today in the form of a new poll out in Pennsylvania, showing her leading Vermont senator Bernie Sanders by more than 20 points in the Keystone State with three weeks to go before its primary. |
| The Harper Polling survey of likely Democratic voters found that Clinton is backed by 55% of those who are likely to show up on election day, compared to just 33% for Sanders. According to the survey, 12% of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided. | The Harper Polling survey of likely Democratic voters found that Clinton is backed by 55% of those who are likely to show up on election day, compared to just 33% for Sanders. According to the survey, 12% of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided. |
| There is a silver lining for Sanders, however: The same survey found Clinton leading by 30 points in March, meaning that the self-described democratic socialist is successfully eating into Clinton’s lead in the delegate-rich state. | There is a silver lining for Sanders, however: The same survey found Clinton leading by 30 points in March, meaning that the self-described democratic socialist is successfully eating into Clinton’s lead in the delegate-rich state. |
| 4.29pm BST | 4.29pm BST |
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| Tom Dart | Tom Dart |
| On the heels of Donald Trump’s proposed ban on remittances to Mexico as a way to coerce the Mexican government to pay for a billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, the Guardian’s Tom Dart reports from McAllen, Texas, where the candidate’s plan is causing many in Central America to flee to Texas’s Rio Grande valley. | On the heels of Donald Trump’s proposed ban on remittances to Mexico as a way to coerce the Mexican government to pay for a billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, the Guardian’s Tom Dart reports from McAllen, Texas, where the candidate’s plan is causing many in Central America to flee to Texas’s Rio Grande valley. |
| Catalina Maldonado wanted to flee El Salvador for the US to protect her son from danger. After learning of Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the border with Mexico, she decided it was now or maybe never. | Catalina Maldonado wanted to flee El Salvador for the US to protect her son from danger. After learning of Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the border with Mexico, she decided it was now or maybe never. |
| If the Republican candidate’s supporters might be delighted that some in Central America are treating the prospect of a wall-raising President Trump with high seriousness, in the short term it appears his rhetoric may be encouraging – not dissuading – migrants to head north to escape poverty and violence. | If the Republican candidate’s supporters might be delighted that some in Central America are treating the prospect of a wall-raising President Trump with high seriousness, in the short term it appears his rhetoric may be encouraging – not dissuading – migrants to head north to escape poverty and violence. |
| “We heard he wants to build those walls. That’s why we came,” Maldonado said. “A lot of people are talking about it in El Salvador. They say really bad things about him,” the 34-year-old added through a translator in a shelter in Texas’s Rio Grande valley, the centre of the 2014 surge in unauthorized crossings by families and unaccompanied minors and still the busiest route. | “We heard he wants to build those walls. That’s why we came,” Maldonado said. “A lot of people are talking about it in El Salvador. They say really bad things about him,” the 34-year-old added through a translator in a shelter in Texas’s Rio Grande valley, the centre of the 2014 surge in unauthorized crossings by families and unaccompanied minors and still the busiest route. |
| More than half of the lone children and families caught crossing the south-west border this fiscal year have been apprehended in the area, which offers the shortest journey from Central America, has sizable populations on both sides of the frontier, flat terrain and dense scrubland and where the only barrier between the US and Mexico is natural: the narrow, serpentine Rio Grande river. | More than half of the lone children and families caught crossing the south-west border this fiscal year have been apprehended in the area, which offers the shortest journey from Central America, has sizable populations on both sides of the frontier, flat terrain and dense scrubland and where the only barrier between the US and Mexico is natural: the narrow, serpentine Rio Grande river. |
| Related: Now or never: Trump's Mexico wall threat encourages migration to US | Related: Now or never: Trump's Mexico wall threat encourages migration to US |
| 4.05pm BST | 4.05pm BST |
| 16:05 | 16:05 |
| Donald Trump finally reveals how he will pay for his border wall | Donald Trump finally reveals how he will pay for his border wall |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has finally revealed how he plans to force Mexico to pay for his multi-billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, a lynchpin of his presidential campaign that has never been fully detailed before. | Billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has finally revealed how he plans to force Mexico to pay for his multi-billion-dollar wall along the US southern border, a lynchpin of his presidential campaign that has never been fully detailed before. |
| The key to the wall’s financing, Trump wrote in a two-page memo to the Washington Post, is threatening to halt money transfers from Mexican immigrants in the US to family back home. These remittances amount to nearly $25 billion each year, roughly 2% of the Mexican gross domestic product, according to the World Bank. Cutting off these money transfers could doom the Mexican economy to recession and severely damage diplomatic relations. | The key to the wall’s financing, Trump wrote in a two-page memo to the Washington Post, is threatening to halt money transfers from Mexican immigrants in the US to family back home. These remittances amount to nearly $25 billion each year, roughly 2% of the Mexican gross domestic product, according to the World Bank. Cutting off these money transfers could doom the Mexican economy to recession and severely damage diplomatic relations. |
| “It’s an easy decision for Mexico,” Trump wrote in the memo, written on campaign stationary emblazoned with his “Make America Great Again!” motto. “Make a one-time payment of $5-$10 billion to ensure that $24 billion continues to flow into their country year after year.” | “It’s an easy decision for Mexico,” Trump wrote in the memo, written on campaign stationary emblazoned with his “Make America Great Again!” motto. “Make a one-time payment of $5-$10 billion to ensure that $24 billion continues to flow into their country year after year.” |
| Trump has previously estimated the cost of building the wall at $8bn. | Trump has previously estimated the cost of building the wall at $8bn. |
| In the memo, entitled “Compelling Mexico to Pay for the Wall,” Trump said that on the first day of his presidency he would warn the Mexican government of a new regulation that would allow for the government’s seizure of financial assets by immigrants unless they provide documentation establishing “lawful presence in the United States.” | In the memo, entitled “Compelling Mexico to Pay for the Wall,” Trump said that on the first day of his presidency he would warn the Mexican government of a new regulation that would allow for the government’s seizure of financial assets by immigrants unless they provide documentation establishing “lawful presence in the United States.” |
| The feasibility and legality of such a maneuver is unclear. “Trump is giving an extremely broad definition of this section of the Patriot Act and what it allows, and it’d surely be litigated,” Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, told the Washington Post. “It would be a large expansion beyond what the text reads.” | The feasibility and legality of such a maneuver is unclear. “Trump is giving an extremely broad definition of this section of the Patriot Act and what it allows, and it’d surely be litigated,” Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, told the Washington Post. “It would be a large expansion beyond what the text reads.” |
| Trump’s memo cites additional examples of diplomatic arm-twisting , including an increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, putting a halt to legal immigration and increasing fees for visas and green cards. “Immigration is a privilege, not a right,” Trump wrote. “Mexico is totally dependent on the United States as a release valve for its own poverty.” | Trump’s memo cites additional examples of diplomatic arm-twisting , including an increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, putting a halt to legal immigration and increasing fees for visas and green cards. “Immigration is a privilege, not a right,” Trump wrote. “Mexico is totally dependent on the United States as a release valve for its own poverty.” |
| He concluded his memo by lambasting current immigration rates, writing that “gangs, drug traffickers and cartels have freely exploited our open borders and committed vast numbers of crimes inside the United States.” | He concluded his memo by lambasting current immigration rates, writing that “gangs, drug traffickers and cartels have freely exploited our open borders and committed vast numbers of crimes inside the United States.” |
| “We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage,” Trump concluded. “It is time we use it.” | “We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage,” Trump concluded. “It is time we use it.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.15pm BST | at 4.15pm BST |
| 3.24pm BST | 3.24pm BST |
| 15:24 | 15:24 |
| Want to know why Ted Cruz is leading in Wisconsin? | Want to know why Ted Cruz is leading in Wisconsin? |
| This advertisement from the state’s thrice-elected governor - and onetime presidential candidate - could help explain it. | This advertisement from the state’s thrice-elected governor - and onetime presidential candidate - could help explain it. |
| Correspondents in Wisconsin say it’s been running practically on loop on local television stations. | Correspondents in Wisconsin say it’s been running practically on loop on local television stations. |
| 3.10pm BST | 3.10pm BST |
| 15:10 | 15:10 |
| Where are the candidates today? | Where are the candidates today? |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| As the five remaining presidential hopefuls scramble for last-minute support in Wisconsin, here’s an updated schedule for where they’ll be making appearances today: | As the five remaining presidential hopefuls scramble for last-minute support in Wisconsin, here’s an updated schedule for where they’ll be making appearances today: |
| Hillary Clinton | Hillary Clinton |
| Joined by congresswomen Yvette Clarke and New York City’s first late, Chirlane McCray, the former secretary of state will host a Women for Hillary town hall meeting in Brooklyn, the site of her campaign headquarters and a key battleground in the upcoming New York primary. | Joined by congresswomen Yvette Clarke and New York City’s first late, Chirlane McCray, the former secretary of state will host a Women for Hillary town hall meeting in Brooklyn, the site of her campaign headquarters and a key battleground in the upcoming New York primary. |
| Where: Medgar Evers Gymnasium, 1650 Bedford Avenue, BrooklynTime: 3:45 pm EDTDoors open: 1:30 pm EDTRSVP here, if you’re free. | Where: Medgar Evers Gymnasium, 1650 Bedford Avenue, BrooklynTime: 3:45 pm EDTDoors open: 1:30 pm EDTRSVP here, if you’re free. |
| Bernie Sanders | Bernie Sanders |
| The Vermont senator is holding a rally in scenic Laramie, Wyoming. According to his campaign, Sanders will discuss “getting big money out of politics, his plan to make public colleges and universities tuition-free, combating climate change and ensuring universal health care.” | The Vermont senator is holding a rally in scenic Laramie, Wyoming. According to his campaign, Sanders will discuss “getting big money out of politics, his plan to make public colleges and universities tuition-free, combating climate change and ensuring universal health care.” |
| Where: The Arts & Sciences Auditorium at the University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, LaramieTime: 5 pm MDTRSVP here, if you’re free. | Where: The Arts & Sciences Auditorium at the University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, LaramieTime: 5 pm MDTRSVP here, if you’re free. |
| Ted Cruz | Ted Cruz |
| The Texas senator is hosting an election-night watch party in Milwaukee ahead of what he hopes will be a triumphant performance in the Wisconsin primary. Having attended one of Cruz’s watch parties ourselves, expect a lot of M&Ms and a fair number of people selling swag. | The Texas senator is hosting an election-night watch party in Milwaukee ahead of what he hopes will be a triumphant performance in the Wisconsin primary. Having attended one of Cruz’s watch parties ourselves, expect a lot of M&Ms and a fair number of people selling swag. |
| Where: American Serb Hall, 5101 West Oklahoma Avenue, MilwaukeeTime: 7 pm to 10 pm CDTRSVP here, if you’re free. | Where: American Serb Hall, 5101 West Oklahoma Avenue, MilwaukeeTime: 7 pm to 10 pm CDTRSVP here, if you’re free. |
| Neither Donald Trump nor John Kasich have any public events scheduled today. | Neither Donald Trump nor John Kasich have any public events scheduled today. |
| 2.52pm BST | 2.52pm BST |
| 14:52 | 14:52 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| With the consensus growing that neither billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump nor Texas senator Ted Cruz will be able to clinch the Republican nomination before the party’s convention in Cleveland this summer, the word from Washington is that members of the party establishment are already moving to support a so-called “white knight” nominee. | With the consensus growing that neither billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump nor Texas senator Ted Cruz will be able to clinch the Republican nomination before the party’s convention in Cleveland this summer, the word from Washington is that members of the party establishment are already moving to support a so-called “white knight” nominee. |
| That nominee? Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. | That nominee? Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. |
| Calling it: "The real winner in Wisconsin tonight was Paul Ryan!" | Calling it: "The real winner in Wisconsin tonight was Paul Ryan!" |
| According to a report from the Huffington Post, billionaire industrialist/Tea Party puppetmaster Charles Koch is privately backing the speaker’s nomination during a contested Republican convention in July. | According to a report from the Huffington Post, billionaire industrialist/Tea Party puppetmaster Charles Koch is privately backing the speaker’s nomination during a contested Republican convention in July. |
| Ryan, for his part, has openly declared that he’s not interested in the position, telling the Times of Israel while in Jerusalem this weekend that “if you’re going to be president, I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” Of course, Ryan was similarly disinterested in the speakership during the last Republican leadership crisis, and we all know how that turned out. | Ryan, for his part, has openly declared that he’s not interested in the position, telling the Times of Israel while in Jerusalem this weekend that “if you’re going to be president, I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” Of course, Ryan was similarly disinterested in the speakership during the last Republican leadership crisis, and we all know how that turned out. |
| According to the Huffington Post, Ryan would only be open to the idea of accepting a “consensus” nomination if the Republican party unified behind him - an admittedly difficult portrait to paint after a bloodthirsty primary season in which both Trump and Cruz have implicitly threatened open rebellion of the party establishment seizes the nomination from the primary voters. | According to the Huffington Post, Ryan would only be open to the idea of accepting a “consensus” nomination if the Republican party unified behind him - an admittedly difficult portrait to paint after a bloodthirsty primary season in which both Trump and Cruz have implicitly threatened open rebellion of the party establishment seizes the nomination from the primary voters. |
| 2.40pm BST | 2.40pm BST |
| 14:40 | 14:40 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| A look at the polls... | A look at the polls... |
| Although it’s important to remember that polls can often be totally wrong, they are helpful in framing the narrative of the primary night: Who met expectations? Who exceeded them? Who failed to match them? | Although it’s important to remember that polls can often be totally wrong, they are helpful in framing the narrative of the primary night: Who met expectations? Who exceeded them? Who failed to match them? |
| With that in mind, Wisconsin is going to be interesting tonight. In six of the last seven polls of likely Republican voters, Texas senator Ted Cruz came out on top in the Badger State, leading billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump by anywhere from one to ten points. | With that in mind, Wisconsin is going to be interesting tonight. In six of the last seven polls of likely Republican voters, Texas senator Ted Cruz came out on top in the Badger State, leading billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump by anywhere from one to ten points. |
| It’s not great news for Trump, who needs to win 55% of the remaining delegates up for grabs to clinch the party’s nomination ahead of the convention in July. If polls showing a potential double-digit victory for Cruz end up being accurate, Trump’s window to winning the nomination outright grows tighter. (To be fair, Cruz’s insistence that he has “a clear path” to winning the nomination ahead of the convention is a near-absolute fantasy, regardless of how well he performs tonight: He would need to win roughly 80% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination ahead of the convention.) | It’s not great news for Trump, who needs to win 55% of the remaining delegates up for grabs to clinch the party’s nomination ahead of the convention in July. If polls showing a potential double-digit victory for Cruz end up being accurate, Trump’s window to winning the nomination outright grows tighter. (To be fair, Cruz’s insistence that he has “a clear path” to winning the nomination ahead of the convention is a near-absolute fantasy, regardless of how well he performs tonight: He would need to win roughly 80% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination ahead of the convention.) |
| For the Democrats, the polling situation is a little tighter and a little more fluid. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders leads former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in five of the last seven polls conducted, in leads ranging from two to eight points. In the polls in which she is ahead, Clinton’s lead is tighter - between one and six points. | For the Democrats, the polling situation is a little tighter and a little more fluid. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders leads former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in five of the last seven polls conducted, in leads ranging from two to eight points. In the polls in which she is ahead, Clinton’s lead is tighter - between one and six points. |
| Without the benefit of the Republican “winner-take-most” delegate allocation structure, however, tonight’s victory will be blunted by momentum, no matter who wins. At this point, Sanders needs to win 67% of party’s remaining delegates and superdelegates to win the Democratic nomination, a high hurdle for a candidate who has won less than 40% of the delegates up for grabs so far. | Without the benefit of the Republican “winner-take-most” delegate allocation structure, however, tonight’s victory will be blunted by momentum, no matter who wins. At this point, Sanders needs to win 67% of party’s remaining delegates and superdelegates to win the Democratic nomination, a high hurdle for a candidate who has won less than 40% of the delegates up for grabs so far. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.53pm BST | at 2.53pm BST |
| 1.37pm BST | 1.37pm BST |
| 13:37 | 13:37 |
| All eyes on Wisconsin | All eyes on Wisconsin |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Happy primary day! | Happy primary day! |
| Hello, and welcome to our continuing coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. This morning, the eyes of a primary-weary nation have turned to America’s Dairyland, where both Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants hope that victories in tonight’s only primary will strengthen their claim to the nomination – or, at least, make it harder for their opponents to do so. | Hello, and welcome to our continuing coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. This morning, the eyes of a primary-weary nation have turned to America’s Dairyland, where both Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants hope that victories in tonight’s only primary will strengthen their claim to the nomination – or, at least, make it harder for their opponents to do so. |
| A few must-knows for tonight’s primary: | A few must-knows for tonight’s primary: |
| Polls close in Wisconsin at 9 pm ET. The Badger State is reputed to have relatively quick returns, which means that unless the races are close – results from Milwaukee, as in all cities, will likely come in a little later than smaller precincts – we should be able to wrap this up before bedtime. | Polls close in Wisconsin at 9 pm ET. The Badger State is reputed to have relatively quick returns, which means that unless the races are close – results from Milwaukee, as in all cities, will likely come in a little later than smaller precincts – we should be able to wrap this up before bedtime. |
| For Republicans, Wisconsin is known as a “winner-take-most” state. This means that all 42 of its delegates will be apportioned tonight, with 18 going to the winner of a plurality of the state’s vote and three more delegates awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties, which means we should be able to make a rough guesstimate of the delegate totals sometime this evening. With 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination, frontrunner Donald Trump has 737 (500 short), Texas senator Ted Cruz has 475 (762 short), and Ohio governor John Kasich has 143 (1,094 short). | For Republicans, Wisconsin is known as a “winner-take-most” state. This means that all 42 of its delegates will be apportioned tonight, with 18 going to the winner of a plurality of the state’s vote and three more delegates awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The districts comport roughly (although not exactly) with the state’s counties, which means we should be able to make a rough guesstimate of the delegate totals sometime this evening. With 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination, frontrunner Donald Trump has 737 (500 short), Texas senator Ted Cruz has 475 (762 short), and Ohio governor John Kasich has 143 (1,094 short). |
| On the Democratic side, Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are appointed proportionally, which means that a victory by either Vermont senator Bernie Sanders or former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be relatively blunted – unless one of them greatly outperforms. With 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination, Clinton has 1,712, including superdelegates (671 short), and Sanders has 1,011 (1,372 short). | On the Democratic side, Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are appointed proportionally, which means that a victory by either Vermont senator Bernie Sanders or former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will be relatively blunted – unless one of them greatly outperforms. With 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination, Clinton has 1,712, including superdelegates (671 short), and Sanders has 1,011 (1,372 short). |
| The Guardian’s reporting team will be bringing you up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s primary results, with Dan Roberts anchoring coverage from Madison, Megan Carpentier watching polling stations, Ben Jacobs attending watch parties, and the rest of us eating Night Cheese in New York. | The Guardian’s reporting team will be bringing you up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s primary results, with Dan Roberts anchoring coverage from Madison, Megan Carpentier watching polling stations, Ben Jacobs attending watch parties, and the rest of us eating Night Cheese in New York. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.56pm BST | at 1.56pm BST |