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EU referendum results night: counting begins in poll to decide Britain's future – live
EU referendum results: 84 pro-Brexit tories back Cameron as counting begins – live
(35 minutes later)
10.39pm BST
11.13pm BST
22:39
23:13
Holly Watt
This is from the pollster Deborah Mattinson.
My colleague Holly Watt is in Essex, where Ian Davidson, chief executive of Tendring council, said there had been a very high number of postal votes in the area.
Kettering turnout 76% - much higher than GE2015 if true.,,
Davidson said 19,000 postal votes had been requested for the referendum, compared to 14-15,000 at other elections. “There are a lot of people, in their 30s and 40s who are voting for the first time ever in this election,” he said.
11.12pm BST
Tendring district council includes Clacton, which voted for the first Ukip MP, Douglas Carswell. Richard Everett, a local councillor, said the turnout had been very high, adding: “All the polling stations have been very busy.”
23:12
10.33pm BST
This is from the BBC’s Emma Simpson.
22:33
Sounds like a big turnout for both City of London and Westminster counts. As high as 82% and the Remain camp in confident mood.
Steven Morris
11.10pm BST
In Cardiff, Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Tories, believes there is “every possibility” of Wales voting out. Davies went against the prime minister and campaigned for leave.
23:10
He told the Guardian: “I do think it’s going to be very close. There’s a large turnout without a shadow of a doubt. The people I’ve spoken to who are for out have remained solidly out and have gone and voted out. I think we may be in for a surprise in Wales.
Pro-Brexit Theresa Villiers says she thinks Remain have won
“When you think of the weight of the government machine and the information that was thrown out at the taxpayers’ expense from the remain side then I do think that for us to be competitive is a remarkable achievement.”
Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the pro-Brexit cabinet ministers, has just told Sky News:
He backed David Cameron – no matter the result. He said: “The prime minister is the prime minister. He’s got a five-year mandate. I think the party deserves great credit for delivering the referendum. A cynical person could have said it would have been easier to push it into the long grass.”
My instinct is that Remain have won.
10.30pm BST
11.08pm BST
22:30
23:08
Nick Fletcher
Andrew Sparrow
Economist James Knightley at ING Bank has looked at the economic implications of the UK remaining in the EU, assuming the initial indications are correct.
This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.
And there’s good and bad news. Investment which has been put on hold should start up again, but as the economy recovers the chances of an interest rate rise increase.
IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics
Knightley said: “Making a big leap to assume these sample polls are correct, it should provide a near-term boost to the economy. if it is true, the slowdown in investment and hiring caused by the uncertainty that the vote has generated should reverse and the UK economy should revert back towards trend growth. We also think that inflation pressures will pick up due to labour market tightness and there will be a growing sense that a Bank of England rate hike won’t be too far away. We still think February 2017 with a second rate hike in the second half of 2017.”
“Revulsion of leave tactics” is probably a reference to Nigel Farage’s “Breaking Point” poster, which may explain why people in the Vote Leave camp (which is not linked to Ukip) are so angry with Farage. (See 10.55pm.)
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23:08
Henry McDonald
Josh Halliday
This dispatch has just arrived from Henry McDonald in Belfast:
Sunderland is once again vying to be the first to declare its result – and expecting a high turnout. About 45% of the city’s 207,207 voters do so by postal vote. We’re told that a significant number of those votes had been cast by yesterday; and 78% of the postal vote was returned – one of highest on record. So if that is matched by voters in the polling booth then the turnout here could be very high indeed.
As counting gets under way, Northern Ireland’s Electoral Office clearly assumes everyone coming to tonight’s count is driving a car. Those journalists and observers coming by foot had a 25-minute plod through an empty industrial estate full of rain water-filled craters and mud banks before they could reach the Titanic visitors centre for the 10pm deadline, some of them ending up late for the ballot boxes being opened. Nil points so far for organisation!
They're just showing off now #EUref #sunderland #alwaysfirst pic.twitter.com/2YIOox9l4l
10.27pm BST
22:27
Libby Brooks
Libby Brooks has sent this from the Glasgow count.
Waiting for the first ballots to arrive at the Glasgow count https://t.co/Hba3ISCout
10.26pm BST
22:26
Peter Walker
Chris Grayling, the former justice secretary and a prominent Tory leave supporter, has also declined to say his side might have lost. “It’s much too early,” he told Sky News. “We have no idea what the result’s going to be.” Labour’s Alan Johnson, a main figure in remain, agreed: “It’s the first time in six weeks I’ve agreed with Chris,” he said. “For a post-match analysis we have to wait for post match.”
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11.07pm BST
22:25
23:07
Ben Quinn
The first predictions from MPs are trickling through and Labour’s Chuka Umunna has said that he is “reasonably confident” of the result he and the remain side have been campaigning for.
“I am reasonably confident that hopefully remain gets the result but it could go the other way,” he told Sky News a little earlier when pressed.
The former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown said: “The truth is that nobody knows.”
When told that Nigel Farage appeared to be conceding defeat, Ashdown laughed and said that the Ukip leader was “hedging his bets”.
10.24pm BST
22:24
Anushka Asthana
Leave think Nigel Farage may be right. (See 10.03pm.) “Nigel Farage is probably right,” one Leave source said.
55-45 for Remain is on the cards. But that means about as many will have voted for Brexit as voted for every government since War.
10.23pm BST
22:23
Richard Adams
Our education editor Richard Adams has sent this from Oxford:
Some unusually high turnouts are being reported around Oxfordshire, where an extra 30,000 people joined the electoral roll compared with the last general election.
The city of Oxford is expected to return its results first at about 2am, and is likely to be strongly remain given its combination of affluence and education. Leave campaigners were out in force in Oxford’s Cornmarket today, but an unusual alliance of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative activists have been working together for remain and blanketing the city. Most of the rest of the county, including David Cameron’s seat in west Oxfordshire, is strongly Tory, where Ukip has previously failed to make in-roads.
Some parts of Oxfordshire have reported very high turnout. In Kennington, in the Vale of White Horse, some 80% of voters had cast ballots more than an hour before polls closed.
And Nicola Blackwood, the Tory MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, tweeted:
Well, Oxford seems convinced - clear cross party support for #Remain on display today #EUref pic.twitter.com/dLbJmyQrJm
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10.23pm BST
22:23
Sterling and markets rise after YouGov poll
Nick Fletcher
Nick Fletcher
The YouGov poll has seen the pound climb even higher, now up to a new high for the year of close to $1.50, while the FTSE 100 is forecast to open around 90 points higher tomorrow. Investors clearly like the idea that the Remain campaign may be in the lead.
The pound has hit another new high for the year (the highest since December in fact) of $1.5018. Here’s how it spiked after the polls closed:
Michael Hewson at City firm CMC Markets said: “Just prior to polls closing late money bets on the betting markets saw stock market futures and sterling surge higher;
Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said: “While we expect further upside for the pound if the unofficial exit poll is correct and remain have won the referendum, the focus in the markets could shift to the margin of victory. An 8% margin of victory, as suggested by the Ipsos Mori poll, would probably be considered a big enough margin to put the Brexit issue to bed for many years, which could give a substantial boost to risky assets in the coming hours. However, anything below a 5% margin may not be considered wide enough to reduce Brexit uncertainty, which could limit enthusiasm for a pound and risk rally.”
“As the final poll from YouGov hit the wires sterling pushed back higher again towards the 1.5000 level. FTSE 100 futures are trading above 6,425 [the index closed at 6338]”
But Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital warned: “For now markets are pretty calm but these are only forecasts – we’re waiting for the first declarations from the first counts to get a clearer picture. The first real bellwether is Sunderland, when we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand.
“If there is an unexpectedly high show for Leave there we could yet start to see some moves in sterling and stock futures. “
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10.21pm BST
11.03pm BST
22:21
23:03
In Sunderland (for reasons best know to themselves) they pride themselves on declaring election results more quickly than anywhere else in the country. Here is some video of the boxes being rushed to the count.
Steven Morris
10.18pm BST
The BBC’s Mark Hutchings has tweeted the latest on postal votes from Flintshire in north Wales:
22:18
86 per cent of postal votes sent out in Flintshire have been returned - the highest on record. #bbceuref
Britain Stronger in Europe say they are not getting too carried away by the YouGov poll. “We got burnt by YouGov last year,” a source says. “It’s too close to call.”
10.17pm BST
22:17
Peter Walker
Iain Duncan Smith on BBC News has declined to call it for remain, saying it is still too close to call. “We don’t know where we are, and that’s what make it very difficult to call,” he said.
Duncan Smith said he felt the vote could be swayed by a very high turnout, especially in more deprived areas, which he said would lean more to leave. Turnout in such parts of Essex were getting close to 80%, he said, against about 40% for a general election.
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23:03
Peter Walker
This is from Peter Spiegel, the FT’s news editor.
Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary, on BBC News has declined to call it for remain, saying it is still too close to call. “We don’t know where we are, and that’s what make it very difficult to call,” he said.
Sources briefed on hedge fund exit polls told me they had similar 52-48 result for Remain as of late afternoon https://t.co/fWk5qpoqSz
Duncan Smith said he felt the vote could be swayed by a very high turnout, especially in more deprived areas, which he said would lean more to leave. Turnout in such parts of Essex were getting close to 80%, he said, against about 40% for a general election.
11.01pm BST
23:01
Mark Tran
Mark Tran is in Wandsworth, where the postal vote turnout was 83.6% as of 9pm – 47,510 sent out and 39,717 returned. He has also tweeted a picture from the count:
Emptying ballot boxes in Wandsworth as the count picks up momentum #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/zORkNGKG0w
11.00pm BST
23:00
This is from Ipsos MORI’s Bobby Duffy.
Our polling over final days: 51% Remain on Tues, 54% on Weds and 54% again on polling day #EUref pic.twitter.com/P50BzjAevO
10.59pm BST
22:59
Ipsos MORI poll gives remain an 8-point lead
Ipsos MORI have released some new polling figures. These are from a poll that finished today.
Ipsos MORI (#EUref on the day):REMAIN 54 (+2)LEAVE 46 (-2)Changes vs earlier today*** ALSO NOT AN EXIT POLL ***#Brexit #EUreferendum
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10.56pm BST
22:56
Counting has started in Birmingham and London. Don’t know when results will come in? Here’s our handy guide to give you all the details.
