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EU referendum: pound plunges after strong Brexit vote leaves UK on knife-edge – live
EU referendum: pound plunges after strong Brexit vote leaves UK on knife-edge – live
(35 minutes later)
2.43am BST
3.19am BST
02:43
03:19
This is from the Independent’s John Rentoul.
Curtice not calling it, BUT says Leave now are favourites
Barking & Dagenham Leave by 24 pts vs 8 pts expected; Hammersmith & Fulham Remain by 40 pts, 30 pts expected if 50-50 nationally
3.13am BST
2.42am BST
03:13
02:42
On the BBC, asked if he thinks David Cameron should stay on if leave win, the veteran Conservative Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash says whoever is prime minister will have to be “completely committed to Brexit”. He says that is vital because the EU withdrawal negotiations will have to led by Number 10.
And this is from the academic Matthew Goodwin.
3.11am BST
On average we find that the Leave vote is up by about an average of 3 points on a 50-50 model #euref (so far!)
03:11
2.42am BST
This is from Peter Murrell, the SNP’s chief executive.
02:42
02h50: Remain now has over 1 million votes in Scotland. With just 8 results to go, the map is turning bright yellow pic.twitter.com/clL4W8iqLE
Josh Halliday
3.09am BST
We’re just over halfway through the north-east declarations and the verdict is clear: leave has won comfortably in this region.
03:09
The Brexiters were always expected to do well in this industrial heartland of shipping, mining and steel – but the sheer scale of the leave vote has stunned experts and activists.
Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president who was predicting a remain win (see 10.15pm), has changed his mind.
Of the eight north-east areas to have declared so far, seven have voted heavily to leave the EU. In Hartlepool, the seaside town that saw a Ukip surge at the recent local elections, 69.5% voted to leave.
Seems we are heading for result bad for UK, bad for pollsters and (least important) embarrassing for me
There are a further four areas to declare here – including Northumberland, Durham and Gateshead – but they are expected to be closer run than those that have already declared.
North Tyneside is 53.4% LEAVEThat's seven out of eight North East local authorities to vote Leave. Four still to declare. #EURef
2.40am BST
02:40
This is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman.
Vote Leave source: at current rate they're on course for 150,000 fewer votes in London than hoped. But will more than cover that elsewhere.
2.39am BST
02:39
The academic Rob Ford has more on the Wandsworth result.
Wandsworth 75% remain - that's 9 points above what Remain wld need on 50-50 split, and turnout strong there too
This vote suggests a very deeply divided country. London (& Scotland, other cities?) very different to everywhere else
2.37am BST
02:37
Henry McDonald
Two more Belfast constituencies have followed the west of the city in voting for remain. North and South Belfast backed an in vote, with the latter having a significant majority for Remain.
Belfast South results: 30,960 votes for Remain, 13,596 votes for Leave, 27 votes rejected. #EURefResults
Belfast North results: 20,128 votes for Remain, 19,844 votes for Leave, 26 votes rejected. #EURefResults
The result in East Belfast is surprising given that it is a 70% plus unionist constituency. There was only just over a 1,000-vote majority in favour of leaving the EU. Leave gained 21,918 votes compared to 20,278 for remain.
East Belfast results: 20,728 for Remain, 21,918 votes to Leave, 19 votes rejected. #EURefResults
2.33am BST
02:33
David Pegg
The Labour MP Emily Thornberry, speaking at the Islington count, has reacted to the early results.
“I think that whatever happens, about half the country has grave reservations,” she said. “We have to think about why that is. What we don’t want to do is not learn lessons from this.”
She said that while housing and public services were under strain, “these are all things that are in our power to do something about. And David Cameron ought to listen to that”.
Emily Thornberry at Islington count: "Whatever happens about half the country has very grave reservations." pic.twitter.com/mHSf2Z0gdx
2.33am BST
02:33
The Wandsworth results are in.
Remain: 118,463 (75%)
Leave: 39,421 (25%)
Wandsworth is one of the most pro-remain areas in the country, but the remain lead here is even bigger than the Hanretty figures suggested it would be.
Updated
Updated
at 2.35am BST
at 3.11am BST
2.29am BST
3.03am BST
02:29
03:03
Chris Hanretty, on his University of East Anglia blog, has updated his forecast. Based on 33 results in, he expects leave to win by five points.
Here is another slab of results.
This is a big update, and I’m conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:
Here is Glasgow’s announcement that the city voted for remain, a much-needed result for the remain side:
Henry McDonald has sent this from Belfast:
As well as the announcement from Falkirk:
Nathan Anderson is a 26-year-old MA politics student at Queen’s University Belfast and a Democratic Unionist councillor.
Unlike a majority of his contemporaries in his age group, he is strongly in favour of Brexit.
He said: “As part of my MA I have been studying the EU and it has made me more Eurosceptical. The EU commission is wholly unelected and it makes the laws. That is why I will be delighted if its a Brexit result today.”
Updated
Updated
at 2.35am BST
at 3.02am BST
2.28am BST
2.55am BST
02:28
02:55
Here’s more from Ladbrokes on leave now being favourite to win the referendum. The bookmaker has leave at 1/2 and remain at 6/4.
The Guardian’s Dan Milmo talks us through the volatility in the financial markets with the results coming in for the European Union referendum.
Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, said: “We are seeing huge sums of money coming in for leave on the back of consistently better than expected results. There is a long way to go, but the trend thus far is only going one way. London will be key in the eventual outcome and the remain camp needs a better than expected result on a better than expected turnout.”
2.54am BST
Meanwhile, markets continue to slide, with the FTSE 100 now forecast to open down around 6%:
02:54
Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% pic.twitter.com/QhtxxuhyCk
John Mann, one of the few Labour MPs to vote for Brexit, has just told the BBC that Labour voters have “decisively voted to leave the European Union”.
Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, said:
2.53am BST
“Stocks and sterling are whipsawing around as markets are starting to price in a Brexit. The pound is swinging around and FTSE futures are trading down at present. Gold is rallying strongly on safe haven demand.
02:53
“We can expect to see these gyrations continue throughout the night as traders react to the referendum results as they come in. We’re not seeing a panic just yet but the complacency has definitely gone.”
We’ve had 84 results in now, and remain are back on the lead - but only just.
Updated
Here are the figures. The vote ones are the ones that count.
at 2.32am BST
2.24am BST
02:24
We’ve got 42 results in now, out of 382.
Here are the numbers. It is the votes that count.
Areas
Areas
Remain: 17
Remain: 34
Leave: 25
Leave: 50
Votes
Votes
Remain: 1,145,433 (46.3%)
Remain: 2,877,575 (50.01%)
Leave: 1,326,686 (53.7%)
Leave: 2,876,697 (49.99%)
42 #EUref results in so far -Glastonbury 1,145,433 (46.3%) / Last Night of the Proms 1,326,686 (53.7%)
84 #EUref results in - Experts 2,877,575 (50.01%) / Bloke in the pub 2,876,697 (49.99%)
2.23am BST
2.51am BST
02:23
02:51
The Guardian’s data team have this about each side’s contribution to the overall result:
Mark Tran
Leave has a lead of 4% in the 41 areas that have reported results so far. The biggest contributor to the leave result overall has been Sunderland, with 6.3% of the leave vote. Meanwhile, the biggest contributor to remain has been Newcastle with 5.8% of the remain vote.
Wandsworth has voted for remain by a thumping 75-25 majority on a 72% turnout. There were 118,463 votes for remain and 39,421 for leave.
The places to watch that are expected to report in the next hour are Castle Point, which is anticipated to lean towards leave, and Crawley in West Sussex which is a general election bellwether and the split between leave and remain should be telling. After 3am we can expect large London areas Camden and Islington to report, which are predicted to lean heavily towards remain.
The borough was a remain stronghold so victory was assured. The only issue was the margin of victory. After the disappointments of Sunderland and Newcastle, Wandsworth will come as a fillip for the remain camp, although the result can only reinforce the impression of a deep divisions in the country.
2.19am BST
Wandsworth result now in; 118,463 remain, 39,421 leave #EURefResults pic.twitter.com/AuYJ2FLTiG
02:19
Jane Ellison, the Conservative MP for Battersea, was delighted but expressed concern over what seemed to be a developing north-south divide.
Libby Brooks
She said: “Whatever the outcome, it is obvious there are very different concerns and where we stand in the world, and we need to address that. All you can do is do your best in your own patch.”
A Labour source’s claim that the SNP was to blame for low turnout in Scotland was swiftly thrown into doubt on Twitter by none other than the former Labour first minister Jack McConnell.
During the count, Justine Greening, the Conservative MP for Putney and international development secretary, said the gap between remain and leave was bigger than she had anticipated.
@bbclaurak Presumably a source who spent the campaign in London.
“That seems much more categorical than I expected,” she told the Guardian. It’s a combination of London being more international and the immigration debate really jarring [with] people.”
When I interviewed the current first minister and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, earlier in the week, I put it to her that her party’s campaign has been lacklustre and certainly far less energetic than other campaigns of recent years.
On whether the death of Labour MP Jo Cox had been a factor, Greening said: “It made people sit up and think and the vote was their first chance people had to show how they felt.”
She responded: “I don’t think it’s the case that we’re doing less than other parties but I had this conversation with UK government politicians at the time they were deciding the date of the referendum and I know there were similar concerns raised by the Welsh government.
Rosena Allin-Khan, the newly Labour MP for Tooting, also campaigned for remain in a cross-party effort. She said she found some confusion among remain voters because the government had been so “woefully divided”.
“Up until 5 May we were absolutely focused on a Scottish election and there was always going to be a difficulty in bringing activists who exhaust themselves in an election campaign out of that immediately into another campaign with exactly the same intensity.”
In terms of Scottish government campaigning, she noted that there were five working days between her being confirmed as first minster and EU referendum purdah beginning, adding: “There have been some very practical constraints placed on us.”
2.19am BST
02:19
Leave on course for 12-point lead, Sky predicts
Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for a 12-point lead.
Prof Michael Thrasher preliminary forecast as things stand for @skynews:Leave 56%Remain 44%
