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EU referendum live: pound plunges as first results come in EU referendum results live: pound plunges as first results come in
(35 minutes later)
12.58am BST 1.33am BST
00:58 01:33
The Swindon result has been announced. The fall in the pound is the third biggest move on record, after the 2008 financial crisis and Black Wednesday when sterling left the Exchange Rate Mechanism:
Remain: 51,220 (45.3%) Pound move at number 3 with a bullet.... pic.twitter.com/FOC9x2tKTw
Leave: 61,745 (54.7%) 1.33am BST
This looks like a hefty leave win but, according to the Hanretty data, leave should have been doing slightly better here. 01:33
Updated Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in
at 12.59am BST Labour figures are also attacking each other. Talking to guests at the Stronger In referendum party, Chris Bryant, the shadow leader of the Commons, denounced Ed Miliband when he saw the former party leader being interviewed on TV. He said:
12.55am BST I might go and punch him because he’s a tosspot and he left the party in the state it’s in.
00:55 1.31am BST
12.55am BST 01:31
00:55 Henry McDonald
Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, has described the Sunderland result (see 12.20am) as a “wholesale rejection of the Labour party by its voters.” The turnout figures for the four Belfast constituencies are out and they show that unionist majority areas have voted significantly more than republican districts.
12.54am BST In republican West Belfast – a Sinn Féin stronghold – the turnout was 48%, an historic low compared to successive general and assembly elections. By contrast, the turnout in loyalist East Belfast was 66%, as it was in the more liberal South Belfast constituency. In North Belfast, where there is a sizeable republican and nationalist population, the turnout was 57%.
00:54 This reflects a trend across Northern Ireland where unionists, especially working-class loyalists, appear more animated about EU-related issues – most notably on immigration – compared to working-class republicans and nationalists. Lee Reynolds, of the leave campaign, was clearly correct in terms of his analysis of working-class loyalism and this referendum: they came out to vote in unprecedented numbers.
In Wandsworth, Mark Tran reports a turnout of 71.98% – or 158,018 out of 219,521 voters. 1.30am BST
12.52am BST 01:30
00:52 You can always tell who is losing on an election night - it’s the side where they start blaming each other. Earlier, when it looked good for remain, we saw Vote Leave have a go at Nigel Farage.
Randeep Ramesh But now the recriminations are breaking out on the remain side, where Labour is blaming the government. This is from a party source.
In Bristol Marvin Rees, the newly elected mayor of the city, told the Guardian that the “Brexit campaign has exposed the fragility at the heart of the system”. A significant minority of Labour voters have undoubtedly voted for Leave. After David Cameron and the Tories made this a referendum on them and their leadership, many of the areas hardest hit by this government’s unfair policies like Sunderland have taken the opportunity this referendum as a means to kick a Conservative government that is out of touch.
He added: “We have people vulnerable to people coming along singing a simple tune. We have to change the way we do public services. We are not sharing the prosperity. We need to deliver the change that people need. We need a city that people can afford to live in.” Rees said that this was not just a message to the Labour leadership but “for everyone”. This was a vote against a government that has failed to rebalance the economy, and has failed to deliver the Northern Powerhouse that it keeps promising.
Bristol’s polling officials said that of the 58,000 postal votes, the city has recorded a 90.8% turnout. That’s a record. Our private polling has consistently shown from the beginning of the campaign that about two thirds of Labour voters supported remain and we expect that to be borne out in the results. A clear majority of Labour voters support remaining in Europe, unlike Tory voters.
#bristol mayor @MarvinJRees: #brexit campaign exposed fragility at heart of system. We are not sharing prosperity. pic.twitter.com/MXhtrXWXvG And this is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman.
12.51am BST Remain camp already eating each other. Angela Eagle slagging off govt. You can bet Dave will blame Labour if this goes wrong.
00:51 1.26am BST
These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. 01:26
Hear Remain might be as high as 83% in Lewisham - we going to see London v the rest of the country? This is from the Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour:
Foyle, N Ireland, 78% Remain, 22% Leave Hartlepool ex seat of Lord Mandelson & key Remain figure, gone 70 to 30 for Leave. Project Fear cut no ice.
Lewisham was expected to vote Remain, by a margin of roughly two to one. According to both the Hanretty measure and the Sky News index (see 10.12pm), it is one of the 50 most pro-EU areas in the country. 1.24am BST
12.49am BST 01:24
00:49 Gibraltar announces before Sunderland. A rock beats a hard place.
Josh Halliday 1.23am BST
Bridget Phillipson, the Labour MP for Houghton and Sunderland South, said she is “naturally disappointed” with the result but says it reflects the “real sense of anger” in the region about low wages and other issues. 01:23
Updated Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale believes Edinburgh is ‘overwhelmingly in support of remain’.
at 12.49am BST 1.21am BST
12.46am BST 01:21
00:46
John Redwood, the Conservative pro-Brexit MP, has just told Sky News that a fall in the value of the pound is not necessarily something to worry about. If it falls too much in value, people will start buying it again, he said.
12.45am BST
00:45
I’m told sampling from the boxes in Hastings suggests leave is on 50.6%, and remain is on 49.4%. Leave were expected to be ahead here, but by more than this.
12.44am BST
00:44
Steven MorrisSteven Morris
Cardiff South and Penarth Labour MP Stephen Doughty is cheerful about the chances of the Welsh capital returning a healthy Remain vote. He said he had been joined on the campaign trail on voting day by people who had never been actively engaged in politics before. In Cardiff, the Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, is concerned that the vote is going to be very close in Wales. She said places that have suffered economically through austerity seem to be those that are voting out.
“People were saying they wouldn’t forgive themselves if they did nothing and the country voted to leave.” But it’s in places like the valleys town of Merthyr Tydfil where the remain vote could be in trouble. Turnout there was 67% – it was 53% at the last general election. Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood at the count in Cardiff. pic.twitter.com/MMFo9pWvJ5
Cardiff South and Penarth MP Stephen Doughty at the count on the Welsh capital. pic.twitter.com/ar7hHCUcO7 1.19am BST
More big turnouts in Wales: 01:19
In Blaenau Gwent it was 68.1% (58% at the general election). In Ynys Mon (Anglesey) it was 73.8% (69.9% at general election). These are from Matthew Goodwin, the academic and Ukip expert.
Kettering expected to be 59-41 for Leave. Actual result 61-39. A tad over expectations for Remain #euref @CaitlinMilazzo
Kettering is another area where Leave is delivering a bit more punch than academic models suggest #euref
....wondering what message voters will send to Labour from the other northern heartlands.... #euref
Shetland Islands Remain 56.5, Leave 43.5. Predicted Remain 63% leave 37% #euref
1.16am BST
01:16
John Curtice, the elections expert who is number-crunching for the BBC, also has leave as favourite to win on the basis of the results we have now.
John Curtice: At the moment at least the Leave side are favourites to win this Referendum - but there is still a very long way to go. #EUref
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.48am BST at 1.18am BST
12.41am BST 1.14am BST
00:41 01:14
Richard Adams The University of East Anglia is running a referendum live blog. It has been crunching the numbers and, on the basis of the first five results, is forecasting a narrow win for leave.
Here is an interesting tweet from the Higher Education Policy Institute, which has looked closely at student voting patterns. Predicted probability of Britain remaining: 0.48
It’s headed by Nick Hillman, a former Conservative candidate and special advisor, who says the BBC’s analysis of student voting is “incomplete”: (5 of 382 areas reporting.)
Lots of tonight's analysis is ignoring that it is university holidays, so students not generally at their term-time address. #EUref Predicted vote share for remain: 49.8%.
That means student votes are likely to be distributed in their home authorities rather than their university ones – which could help explain the disappointing remain performance in Newcastle. (90% prediction interval: 42.7% to 56.8%)
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.43am BST at 1.19am BST
12.40am BST 1.11am BST
00:40 01:11
This is from the Press Association’s Ian Jones. With surprises in Newcastle and Sunderland, the Guardian’s Anushka Asthana summarises the EU referendum results night so far.
50 of the 382 voting areas have now reported turnout, and the average is 71%. #EURef 1.11am BST
12.40am BST 01:11
00:40 This is from Caitlin Milazzo, an academic and Ukip expert.
Steven Morris Kettering - Forecast #Brexit vote 59%, UKIP 2014 EP vote 36%, Actual vote share 61% #EURef
Speculation is growing in Wales that there are going be some handsome wins for leave in parts of the south valleys. For the moment, Alun Cairns, secretary of state for Wales (and remain supporter), is not being drawn in. He has been arguing at the count in Cardiff that no matter the result this is a good day for democracy. He is also keen to remind us that the Tories have delivered a manifesto promise. He also says, just like in a general election campaign, whoever wins the argument over the economy is likely to carry the day. As to the result in Wales? Too early to say. 1.09am BST
Sec state for Wales Alun Cairns. https://t.co/Htp2tgbtTO 01:09
Prof John Curtice has told the BBC that turnout in London seems to be 2 or 3% lower than expected, based on figures in so far. That might be the result of terrible rain we had in the capital. If so, this is bad for remain, which counts London as a stronghold.
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.43am BST at 1.12am BST
12.37am BST 1.07am BST
00:37 01:07
Henry McDonald Stock markets have started to open in Asia and in Japan the Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.65%.
The leave campaign’s regional coordinator in Northern Ireland is holding on to the hope that working-class voters across the UK will turn around the Brexit camp’s fortunes. Lee Reynolds, a former Democratic Unionist party councillor, said there had been an unprecedented turnout in Ulster loyalist working-class areas. But the UK futures are now suggesting the FTSE 100 will open around 1.9% lower.
“They are not voting in any large numbers for remain,” Reynolds said. “If the loyalist working class are voting like never before then what are their counterparts doing in England and like them, the English working class is for leave. People have to came calm down and let the votes be counted. I think the odds are even in terms of which side is going to be on the 52-48 split in the vote. It is far from over.”