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EU referendum results: 84 pro-Brexit tories back Cameron as counting begins – live EU referendum results: pound plunges as first results come in – live
(35 minutes later)
11.49pm BST 12.25am BST
23:49 00:25
This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley. Mark Tran
Vote Leave source says samples so far in Glasgow and Falkirk better than expected for them #EUref In Wandsworth, Rosena Allin-Khan, who succeeded Sadiq Khan, as Labour MP for Tooting, is predicting a 65-35 margin of victory in her constituency.
11.46pm BST “It’s looking good from the sampling,” she told the Guardian. Right on cue, an official with a sampling sheet came over showing 75 votes for remain and 17 for leave. Earlier, a Tory campaigner in Putney predicted a 60-40 margin of victory in his constituency. All three MPs in Wandsworth – Allin-Khan, Justine Greening, the international development secretary and MP for Putney, and Jane Ellison, the Conservative MP for Battersea – have campaigned for remain. Wandsworth is strong remain territory and the only question is the margin of victory.
23:46 Allin-Khan said she found some confusion among remain voters because the government had been so “woefully divided”. Labour voters by contrast felt Jeremy Corbyn had been vocal about remain.
Henry McDonald Labour MP Ronena Allin-Khan at count in Wandsworth: "It's looking good" for Remain #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/u8QOu0APAq
Alasdair McDonnell, the SDLP MP for South Belfast, has told the Guardian the turnout in his constituency is “touching” 70%. The Social Democratic and Labour party MP said he is hoping in Northern Ireland the final vote could be 60-40 for remain. 12.23am BST
Speaking inside the Titanic visitor centre, where the votes from the four Belfast constituencies are being counted, McDonnell said the SDLP wanted “to avoid turning the referendum into a traditional Orange versus Green contest”. He added: “We wanted this to be a civic campaign that cut across the traditional political divide. We had good meetings with the the Ulster Unionists and a pro EU business breakfast. The remain vote is a cross community vote.” 00:23
He declined to speculate on the future of the pro-Brexit Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers, who has conceded defeat on Sky News. With 5 results in out of 382 in the EU referendum, turnout is 67.21%.
11.46pm BST 12.22am BST
23:46 00:22
On Sky News Nigel Farage has just given what sounded a bit like a concession speech (even though he insisted that was not what it was.) I will post the key quotes in a moment. The Leave victory in Sunderland has sent the pound plunging, down 3.5% to $1.435.
11.43pm BST Sunderland in graph format #EUref pic.twitter.com/eqNW6MMkSV
23:43 Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital said: “The pound is plummeting as Sunderland votes heavily for Leave. Markets are very nervy at the moment as the polls – and the markets - could be wrong. The Sunderland result has definitely altered the tone of the evening and markets are getting very choppy.”
The first result is in, from Gibraltar. It is a massive vote for Remain. 12.21am BST
Remain: 19,322 00:21
Leave: 823 Randeep Ramesh
Remain were always going to do well in Gibraltar. Gibraltarians worry that, if the UK were to leave the EU, crossing the border into Spain would become much more difficult - a vital issue for the many people who need to cross it every day. Count halted in Bristol after fire alarm set off. Counting officer sent out staff. Vote Leave joke about being worried about what will happen to their ballot papers. It’s a false alarm.
11.41pm BST Count halted in #bristol #euref after fire alarm set off pic.twitter.com/8BaRVV2XX7
23:41 12.20am BST
00:20
Leave win in Sunderland by more than expected
Leave have won a big victory in Sunderland.
Remain: 51,930 (61%)
Leave: 82,394 (39%)
Leave were expected to win here, according to the Hanretty figures, but not by a margin as big as this. It looks as if the early Remain optimism was premature.
12.20am BST
00:20
The SNP’s Humza Yousaf says he is “quietly optimistic” of a vote to remain.
12.19am BST
00:19
12.16am BST
00:16
Ben QuinnBen Quinn
Douglas Carswell, Ukip’s only MP, has fired yet another coded salvo at the leader of his own party, emphasising that he would like to see a party after the referendum that was “optimistic” about change and not go back to the 1950s. Voters in some areas have been claiming that they were turned away from polling booths after being told their names were not on the register, despite having seemingly registered weeks ago.
Asked what the future of Ukip would be if the referendum result was for remain, he said he believed there would be many people after the campaign “in all parties” who perhaps feel that the leaders of their parties “have more in common” with each other than with ordinary people. Becky Timmons told the Guardian that she and her husband received polling cards after registering in September, but only he was able to vote.
“They perhaps feel that the leaders of their parties on the issue of Europe and many other things have more in common with one another in Westminster than they do with ordinary folk across the country,” Carswell told the BBC. “When I went along and said my name and address they said that I was not on the list,” said Timmons, from Campton, Bedfordshire. “Then the official said: ‘Oh, we have actually had three other people like this, so let us check.’ They phoned up the council but I was still unable to vote. Then she suggested it was some sort of computer error.
The MP has frequently clashed with Farage in the past and at one point last year called on him to resign in order to draw a line under its image. “It made me quite cross. If there were four that happened in our local village then you wonder if it was part of a nationwide thing.”
“I think many people will conclude that politics is a cartel and that we need to break that cartel and we need new upstart parties like Ukip to break that cartel. If Ukip is an optimistic party that wants change and that looks to reshape the country for 2030, 2040, not go back to 1950, we can be that change.” Kieran Robertson, in North Oxfordshire, said he had registered online to vote on 28 May and had received an email confirming he was registered. After checking and rechecking with the council earlier this week he turned up at his local polling station and was told that he was not able to vote.
“It seems like the national computer system went fine but when that tried to send the details to the council system something went wrong and nobody was informed,” said Robertson, who said he will complain. “It leaves you thinking about our status as a democracy. I have not been able to vote, which means that we are not a democracy in some ways.”
A spokesperson for the Electoral Commission said that it was not aware of any major problems being reported in relation to voting.
12.12am BST
00:12
Farage says Eurosceptics 'winning the war', even if they do not win tonight.
Here are the key quotes from Nigel Farage.
I have to say, it has been a long campaign - in my case 25 years. And whatever happens tonight, whoever wins this battle, one thing I am completely certain of is that we are winning this war. Euroscepticism was considered to be fringey, fruitcakey, to quote the prime minister, and now it looks like tonight maybe just under half, maybe just over half the country, is going to vote for us to leave the European Union ...
The Eurosceptic genie is out of the bottle - and it will now not be put back.
But, perhaps even more remarkably the biggest change from this referendum is not what has happened in the United Kingdom. It is what has happened across the rest of the European Union. We now see in Denmark, in the Netherlands and even in Italy up to about 50% of those populations want to leave the European Union.
I hope and pray that my sense of this tonight is wrong. And my sense of this - and no, I’m not conceding - is that the government’s registration scheme, getting 2m voters on, a 48-hour extension, is maybe what tipped the balance. I hope I’m wrong.
12.12am BST
00:12
As we await the results, here are two snapshots from two different post-vote events in London.
12.07am BST
00:07
This is how sterling reacted to the Newcastle news:
Massive market moves on that Newcastle result: GBP/USD traded 200 points lower (2c) than tonight's high. #EUref pic.twitter.com/7nxWTnG2K8
12.05am BST
00:05
Deborah Mattinson
Deborah Mattinson is asking how a divided Britain can heal itself after the EU referendum.
The EU Referendum campaign may not have clarified all the issues in voters’ minds, but it has shone a light on a growing chasm in the country. People divided by geography, social class, age, education and income are even more sharply divided by outlook. Whether to remain in the EU or leave is just one of many of those differences. Whatever the outcome on Thursday, it is unlikely to heal our fractured nation.
Related: How can we heal a nation divided by the referendum?
12.05am BST
00:05
Remain win in Newcastle, but by less than expected
The Newcastle-upon-Tyne result is in.
Remain: 65,404 (50.7%)
Leave: 63,598 (49.3%)
This is a very good result for leave. According to the Hanretty figures, remain were expected to be comfortably ahead. (see 10.22pm.)
And here is a video from the announcement:
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.45pm BST at 12.12am BST
11.37pm BST 12.01am BST
23:37 00:01
Helena Bengtsson Libby Brooks
Contrary to what you may think the UK may not be the most Eurosceptic of the EU’s member states. Helena Bengtsson has this: With the ballot sampling under way, a pattern is now emerging in Glasgow, with middle-class areas voting decisively to remain while working-class areas like the east end are neck and neck with leave.
Despite Britain teetering on the edge of Brexit, polling suggests it may not be the most Eurosceptic state in the EU. A poll of 10,000 Europeans across 10 countries by Pew Research earlier this year found that a majority of people felt unfavourably towards the union in both Greece (71%) and France (61%). Spain also had a higher proportion of unfavourable people (49%) than the UK (48%) did. Estimates of turnout around the country are solidifying around 70% – higher than last month’s Scottish parliament elections but less than the 2014 independence referendum. Turnout in Scotland looks like being a wee bit less than England but, having urged the electorate to the polling booths four times in the last three years, this is no great surprise.
Related: Is Britain the most Eurosceptic country? I’m also told to look out for surprisingly high leave votes in solid SNP areas like Dundee and Inverclyde; perhaps prompting some soul-searching for the party’s high command.
11.37pm BST Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, Ian Murray MP and SNP MP Anne McLaughlin at the Glasgow count pic.twitter.com/mhq4W1TtRt
23:37 11.58pm BST
This is from Sky’s data expert Harry Carr. 23:58
Turnout so far suggests overall turnout of roughly 70% - winning line therefore roughly 16.25 million votes Jill Treanor
The general election turnout was 66%. Sterling has slipped back from its highs against the dollar on talk that the Newcastle result will only be a marginal win for Remain, while Sunderland is said to be strongly leave. The pound is now at $1.4897, having earlier hit $1.5018.
11.34pm BST If Leave really win Sunderland by 20% and Remain win Newcastle by only small margin, upset back on the table.
23:34 My colleague Jill Treanor is on the trading floor at currency trader WorldFirst. Its chief economist and head of currency strategy Jeremy Cook said: “These markets are so thin, so skittish, [the pound] could really come off on any thing.”
This is from the Conservative MSP Annie Wells, who is close to Ruth Davidson. There is some chat that hedge funds had been doing their private polling to get one step ahead of the market. Cook too has heard about hedge fund exit polls and apparently people were being asked how they’d voted by financial analysts in some constituencies. “If a hedge fund had a scent of something sterling would have been hit a lot harder,” Cook says. A veteran of late night election campaigns, Cook says this is the classic time for rumours to start while count comes in. “If a hedge fund had a scent the market had mispriced this and a leave vote was likely sterling would be a lower than this”.
@libby_brooks @_PaulMonaghan I still think it's going be that old chestnut 55% v 45% for remain
11.31pm BST
23:31
11.30pm BST
23:30
Douglas Carswell, the Ukip MP, told the BBC that Leave have done well even if they do not leave.
Who would have thought, after everything that has been thrown at the leave campaign – taxpayer-funded propaganda and the rest of it – that it would be this close.
I think it has been an extraordinary campaign and I think Vote Leave has done incredibly well to narrow the gap and reduce the lead, perhaps not quite enough, but perhaps they have done enough.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.32pm BST at 11.59pm BST
11.28pm BST 11.54pm BST
23:28 23:54
But Matthew Goodwin, the academic and Ukip expert, has heard different figures for Sunderland. The latest reports from Sunderland suggest (contrary to earlier claims) that Leave is heading for a big win.
Sunderland expected early. Forecast Brexit vote 53%. Ukip polled 30% here in 2014. Median income only £19,000 #euref #LSEBrexitVote The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg says Leave could be on 62%.
That would be roughly in line with the Hanretty expectations (see 10.12pm), pointing to a very close result nationwide. Laura K has a source that says Sunderland could be 62% Leave
11.27pm BST This is from Matthew Goodwin.
23:27 Hearing early indications of 66% Leave vote in Sunderland which would be a strong result for them. In models it's predicted to be 53% #euref
Peter Walker And this is from Glen O’Hara, another academic.
Friday’s UK newspapers showed two different approaches: either risk hinting at the result or else talk about the subject in much more general terms. A very bad result for #Remain in Sunderland might not be catastrophic. We may just be more divided than we thought. But it isn't good.
The Sun took the bolder option, its “Brex Mad” headline talking about the high turnout but then adding at the top, “Farage concedes to remain”. And this is from the BBC’s Richard Moss.
Friday's Sun front page:Brex Mad#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/3CdofAcooB One set of counted votes in Sunderland #EUref. Leave piles generally bigger but by how much? pic.twitter.com/ARg5XXvGQ4
Metro took a similar approach, leading on Farage’s apparent concession.
Updated Metro front page:Farage: I think it's all over#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/lMMKh2RLSr
The Times, meanwhile, played it fairly safe for a first edition, merely noting the closeness of the race.
Friday's Times front page:Closest call for Britain#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/I4OhWIJtH3
The Daily Telegraph focused on the aftermath, and a letter from 84 pro-Brexit Tory MPs calling for David Cameron to stay.
Friday's Telegraph front page:Brexit MPs pledge loyalty to PM#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/PG9iSHi4bn
The Guardian and Mirror, by contrast, talk of a wider need to heal and reunite, both as a nation and with the EU.
Friday's Guardian:Party leaders reach out to dividednation after bitter EU referendum#tomorrowspaperstoday #EUref pic.twitter.com/wkptH9w3hQ
Friday's Daily Mirror front page:Project Reunite#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/s21zUqAk2I
The Daily Mail goes somewhat off-piste, calling investment bankers “parasites” for, um, doing what they do every single day, which is to speculate on how world events could move markets.
Friday's Daily Mail front page:The £100bn parasite bankers#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/OXShDSXvhK
The Financial Times also leads on the markets, though is understandably a bit less shocked.
Friday's FT:City watchdogs on high alert over expected post-poll trading frenzy#tomorrowspaperstoday #EUref pic.twitter.com/YXJm47nOVu
Only the Morning Star, so far, has veered from the EU line, with a story about foreign aid and private health companies.
Friday's Morning Star:Foreign aid cash lines pockets of health privateers#Tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/FSR4l8fUh4
11.21pm BST
23:21
Here is more from tonight’s YouGov poll.
Dis-United Kingdom? @YouGov's On-the-Day poll demonstrates how groups in society have such differing views on #EURef pic.twitter.com/lAoeamMtLe
Our On-the-Day poll shows challenge facing leaders. Majority of Con and nearly third of Lab voters support Leave. pic.twitter.com/ZHNNG8aZV5
11.18pm BST
23:18
Andrew Sparrow
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.
This is significant because, according to Professor Chris Hanretty’s data (see 10.12pm), Sunderland is an area where, if Remain and Leave are 50/50 nationwide, Leave should be six points ahead (because it is inherently more pro-Brexit).
Here is an extract from Hanretty’s blog.
If the result in Sunderland is very close, then Remain has probably won. I said that we should expect Leave to be six percentage points ahead in Sunderland.
Updated
at 11.22pm BST
11.15pm BST
23:15
Randeep Ramesh
Ballot boxes arrive in Bristol. Although the city was supposed to be one of the last to count votes at 6am, the Guardian has been told that it was likely to be earlier. Expect a vote from the supposedly pro-remain citadel by 4am.
#Bristol #EUref ballot boxes arrive pic.twitter.com/jmKCb4zyAc
11.13pm BST
23:13
This is from the pollster Deborah Mattinson.
Kettering turnout 76% - much higher than GE2015 if true.,,
Updated
at 11.30pm BST
11.12pm BST
23:12
This is from the BBC’s Emma Simpson.
Sounds like a big turnout for both City of London and Westminster counts. As high as 82% and the Remain camp in confident mood.