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Brexit: What happens now? Brexit: What happens now?
(about 20 hours later)
The UK and EU have agreed a variable extension to Article 50 to delay Brexit. It was originally scheduled to happen on 29 March. MPs have rejected the withdrawal agreement - part of the Brexit deal negotiated between the UK and the EU.
Having lost two votes on the Brexit deal, Theresa May is now asking MPs to back just half of it - the withdrawal agreement, which covers the divorce settlement. This follows two previous rejections of the whole deal. So what happens next?
If she is successful, Brexit would be delayed to 22 May but there will still be issues to sort out. If she fails, we can expect the process of "indicative votes" to continue on Monday. On 1 April MPs will hold a second day of so-called indicative votes where they consider different Brexit options.
The Brexit deal has two main elements: the legally binding withdrawal agreement which covers money, the transition period, citizens' rights and the Northern Ireland border; and the political declaration about the long-term future relationship. Supporters of the process will be hoping for a different outcome from the first round. On 27 March none of the proposals that were put forward achieved a majority.
So why are MPs now being asked just to look at the first part? If the Commons does get behind an alternative Brexit plan, then attention will focus on the government's response.
Well, on 18 March John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, ruled that there couldn't just be reruns of previous votes on the deal. There would either have to be changes or MPs would have to be asked to consider a different question. If it cannot, then the future will again be very uncertain. There could be a further delay to Brexit which would mean the UK taking part in EU Parliament elections in May.
Also, the agreement with the EU about the variable extension only requires MPs to approve the withdrawal agreement to allow the longer delay to 22 May. European Council President Donald Tusk has announced a summit for 10 April.
However the vote goes though, there are still several possible outcomes. Beyond that, though, there are still many possibilities.
1. Leave the EU on the PM's deal 1. No deal
As things stand, it's not enough for MPs to endorse the withdrawal agreement. The 2018 EU Withdrawal Act requires approval of the political declaration as well. No deal Brexit is still the default outcome if MPs can't agree anything else and there are no further extensions.
But if they get the first part through the Commons, the government might seek to get approval for the second part later - possibly after negotiations with other parties about potential changes to the political declaration.
Alternatively, they could seek to change the Withdrawal Act. That would still require MPs to agree though.
The government's preference would be to get all this sorted out as quickly as possible to avoid having to seek any further Brexit delay.
However, there is also a possibility that Theresa May's deal could come back at a later date if MPs fail to agree on an alternative but continue to insist that the UK cannot leave the EU without a deal.
2. No deal
No deal Brexit is still a possibility though. In fact, it's the default outcome if MPs can't agree anything else and there are no further extensions.
As things stand a no-deal Brexit would happen on 12 April in the absence of any other decisions.As things stand a no-deal Brexit would happen on 12 April in the absence of any other decisions.
It could also happen on 22 May if MPs back the withdrawal agreement but block any attempts to proceed further with the political declaration. It could also still happen at a later date if any further extension fails to lift the deadlock.
2. Leave the EU on the PM's deal
Despite the repeated rejection of Theresa May's deal, it could still come back at a later date.
For one thing, it would potentially enable an early exit from a long extension.
Also, if MPs repeatedly fail to come up with an alternative plan they might in the end decide to back the one deal on the table rather than any of the other alternative possibilities.
3. Major renegotiation3. Major renegotiation
If MPs won't back the deal and if they continue to oppose no deal, there will have to be a process for other options to be considered. One such possibility is to negotiate a completely new Brexit deal - perhaps in light of the outcome of indicative votes.
One possibility would be to negotiate a completely new Brexit deal.
This wouldn't be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a further vote.This wouldn't be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a further vote.
Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time. It would require a further delay to Brexit and the UK would have to take part in the European Parliament elections in May.Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time. It would require a further delay to Brexit and the UK would have to take part in the European Parliament elections in May.
A renegotiation could lead towards one of the other styles of deal that have been suggested - perhaps something close to the so-called "Norway model" which would involve a closer relationship with the EU than the current deal proposes.A renegotiation could lead towards one of the other styles of deal that have been suggested - perhaps something close to the so-called "Norway model" which would involve a closer relationship with the EU than the current deal proposes.
If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead.If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead.
The withdrawal agreement - what it all means
Brexit: A really simple guide
4. Another referendum4. Another referendum
A further possibility is to hold another referendum.A further possibility is to hold another referendum.
It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which was legally non-binding and advisory. But some MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result would automatically take effect - like with the 2011 referendum on changing the voting system for UK general elections.It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which was legally non-binding and advisory. But some MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result would automatically take effect - like with the 2011 referendum on changing the voting system for UK general elections.
Either way, a referendum can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.Either way, a referendum can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.
There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.
It couldn't be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.It couldn't be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.
The question is then defined in the legislation.The question is then defined in the legislation.
Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.
Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.
5. Call a general election5. Call a general election
Theresa May could decide the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election.Theresa May could decide the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election.
She doesn't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.She doesn't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.
6. Another no-confidence vote6. Another no-confidence vote
The government survived a vote of no confidence on 16 January by 325 votes to 306. Labour could table another no confidence motion at any time.The government survived a vote of no confidence on 16 January by 325 votes to 306. Labour could table another no confidence motion at any time.
Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, UK general elections are only supposed to happen every five years. The next one is due in 2022.Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, UK general elections are only supposed to happen every five years. The next one is due in 2022.
But a vote of no confidence lets MPs vote on whether they want the government to continue. The motion must be worded: "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government."But a vote of no confidence lets MPs vote on whether they want the government to continue. The motion must be worded: "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government."
If a majority of MPs vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown.If a majority of MPs vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown.
If during that time the current government or any other alternative government cannot win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.If during that time the current government or any other alternative government cannot win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.
That election cannot happen for at least 25 working days.That election cannot happen for at least 25 working days.
7. No Brexit7. No Brexit
The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries).The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries).
With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.
However, any further delay to Brexit would certainly lead to questions about whether the ultimate destination was going to be a reversal of the 2016 referendum.However, any further delay to Brexit would certainly lead to questions about whether the ultimate destination was going to be a reversal of the 2016 referendum.
It's not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.It's not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.
Other possibilitiesOther possibilities
Theresa May has said she will step down if her deal is passed.Theresa May has said she will step down if her deal is passed.
Having already survived a challenge to her leadership, there is no way she can be forced out by her party until December - under the Conservative Party rules.Having already survived a challenge to her leadership, there is no way she can be forced out by her party until December - under the Conservative Party rules.
But she could still choose to resign if she can't get her deal through and she's not prepared to change course.But she could still choose to resign if she can't get her deal through and she's not prepared to change course.
That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister.That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister.
She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a "censure motion" - that would be a bit like a no-confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government.She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a "censure motion" - that would be a bit like a no-confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government.
Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though.Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though.