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Version 80 | Version 81 |
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Brexit: What happens now? | Brexit: What happens now? |
(about 4 hours later) | |
MPs will vote later on a bill to hold an election in the second week of December. | |
It follows the confirmation of a Brexit delay until 31 January 2020 after the EU agreed to the UK's extension request. | |
Prime Minister Boris Johnson had previously said the UK would leave by 31 October "do or die". He has agreed a deal with the EU but the bill implementing it has been put on hold. | |
MPs failed to back a motion on 28 October to call an early election - the third time they have done so. | |
Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, two thirds of all MPs - 434 in total - are needed to get an early election using that procedure. | |
There is another way to have an early election - a short bill to change the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. That now looks likely to pass because the opposition parties say they will support it. | |
Only a simple majority is required but there could still be attempts to amend the bill. And it has to go through both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. | |
Assuming that all happens, though, Parliament will be dissolved next week with the election happening in the week beginning 9 December. | |
What happens next on Brexit would depend on the outcome of that election. | |
Implement the deal | |
One option is to implement the Brexit deal that Boris Johnson has negotiated with the EU. | |
A new version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would have to be introduced in the new Parliament - and go back to the beginning of its passage through Parliament. | |
The aim would be to get the bill completed in time for Brexit on 31 January. This is the Conservatives' plan. | |
Another referendum | Another referendum |
There could also be another referendum although it would certainly require a further Brexit delay. | |
The referendum could have the same legal status as the one in 2016. It would be advisory, and the government would have to decide how to respond once the result was known. | The referendum could have the same legal status as the one in 2016. It would be advisory, and the government would have to decide how to respond once the result was known. |
An alternative would be to hold a so-called "confirmatory" referendum. That would be between a particular Brexit deal and remain - or possibly with no deal as an option. The result of this kind of referendum would be legally binding. | An alternative would be to hold a so-called "confirmatory" referendum. That would be between a particular Brexit deal and remain - or possibly with no deal as an option. The result of this kind of referendum would be legally binding. |
Either way, the new referendum would require legislation to be held. There would also have to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider the question wording - especially if it's a referendum with more than two options. | Either way, the new referendum would require legislation to be held. There would also have to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider the question wording - especially if it's a referendum with more than two options. |
Experts at the Constitution Unit at University College London say it would take a minimum of 22 weeks. | Experts at the Constitution Unit at University College London say it would take a minimum of 22 weeks. |
Labour, the SNP, The Independent Group for Change, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party all support having another referendum. | |
No-deal Brexit | No-deal Brexit |
The default position will be that if no deal is passed by Parliament, the UK will leave the EU without one on 31 January 2020. | The default position will be that if no deal is passed by Parliament, the UK will leave the EU without one on 31 January 2020. |
Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier. | Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier. |
Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated. | Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated. |
The Brexit Party wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal, in what it calls a "clean-break Brexit". | |
Cancel Brexit | Cancel Brexit |
There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. | There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. |
But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. | But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. |
The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit. If they didn't get a majority, they would support another referendum. |
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